Next year's pound-for-pound rankings

It is one thing to look at the sport as it is now and to vote for the best, quite another to wonder what things will be like in the future. But boxing is at a bit of a crossroads. Floyd Mayweather Jr has just retired, Joe Calzaghe will probably do so by the end of the year, while the likes of Bernard Hopkins, "Winky" Wright, Antonio Tarver, Roy Jones Jr, Oscar De La Hoya, even Juan Manuel Marquez and Ricky Hatton, are entering the last phase of their careers.
So what will things be like in 12 months' time and who will be the stars then. Here are my tips.

1= Miguel Cotto - welterweight
Cotto, the WBA welterweight champion, is being matched with the confidence of a promoter who seems to believe he can beat anyone right now. He faces Antonio Margarito, the IBF champion, later this month in a potential thriller which I think he will win and then faces a potential shortfall of opponents. He has already beaten Mosley, Judah, Quintana and I don't think Lou DiBella will let Andre Berto, the newly crowned WBC champion, anywhere near him and the same could be the case for Dan Goossen with Paul Williams, the WBO champion. Expect three low key defences against the likes of Luis Collazo or Carlos Baldomir to fill the next 12 months. Then maybe Floyd Mayweather Jr might dare face him.

1= Manny Pacquiao - lightweight
By this time next year we could be bubbling over at the prospect of a match between Pacquiao and Ricky Hatton, which, provided both keep winning, could be next summer's blockbuster. In the meantime, Pacquiao is likely to try to cement his lightweight position by facing the likes of Julio Diaz and maybe a third match with Juan Manuel Marquez. Amir Khan? Forget it.

3. Wladimir Klitschko - heavyweight
Bit of a jump, but Klitschko, the IBF and WBO champion, has the chance in the next 12 months to really do something for his credibility. He faces Tony Thompson next week, which he should win easily, and then Alexander Povetkin, the unbeaten Olympic super-heavyweight champion, in November. Povetkin is a live contender who is capable of upsetting Klitschko, but if the champion wins, he can then go on to another unification bout in the Spring. The ideal opponent would be Nikolay Valuev, if Valuev wins the vacant WBA title and the perennially injured Ruslan Chagaev gives it up. Now that would be a heavyweight fight to make everyone sit up.

4. Kelly Pavlik - middleweight
I don't expect a great 12 months for Pavlik, because I don't think his promoter, Bob Arum, will be brave enough for him to face Arthur Abraham, the IBF champion, or Felix Sturm, the WBA champion, yet. While his fans (and trainer) have been outrageous in their remarks towards Joe Calzaghe being supposedly "scared" of facing Pavlik, I wouldn't mind staking money that Pavlik's next three opponents will read like this: Ricardo Mayorga, Marco Antonio Rubio, John Duddy - no world-beaters there.

5. Arthur Abraham - middleweight
After his repeat win over Edison Miranda, Abraham looks hot stuff right now. The hope must be that his promoters are ambitious enough to push to face Pavlik or Sturm. Don't hold your breath, though.

6. Juan Manuel Lopez (pictured) - super-bantamweight
Lopez could be the next big thing. 22 wins, 20 KOs the way he won the WBO title from Daniel Ponce De Leon last month was incredible. If he has a couple more wins, he could get a unification match against Israel Vazquez in another one of those Puerto Rican v Mexican matches they love. I'd pick Lopez big.

7. Chris John - featherweight
Chris John, the long-reigning WBA champion from Indonesia, is going to carry on winning, the only question will be whether anyone takes notice. Featherweight is a bit of a cold division right now.

8. David Haye - heavyweight
How's the heavyweight campaign going to be for the former cruiserweight champion. Well, by next year I think it's going to be a case of fights 2, won 2 (not including the heavyweight win he already has over Tomasz Bonin. Who's he going to face? Well Oleg Maskaev is a rumour, Monte Barrett is an uninspiring fallback (despite his win over Tye Fields) while a bout against the winner of Rahman-Toney  would create some noise.

9. Ricky Hatton - light-welterweight
I expect Hatton to beat Paulie Malignaggi in November, after which he could be facing a Juan Diaz or Michael Katsidis in the Spring. I would pick him over either, which could then set up an intriguing match against Pacquaio.

10= Chad Dawson - light-heavyweight
Dawson got a fright against Glen Johnson, but i would pick him against Antonio Tarver if that turns out to be the next move. He has such an age advantage over the leading light-heavyweights, he had plenty of time if he is patient enough.

10= Winner of Nate Campbell/Joan Guzman/Amir Khan
Campbell v Guzman is supposed to be on September 13. That's a tough one to pick and I would probably take the safe choice of Campbell as Guzman does not seem to have carried his power up the divisions. Khan is supposed to be next in line. We will wait and see.

Comments

[Junemr]

I don't think so. For me Manny Pacquiao is the number one pound for pound fighter and he is the best fighter I ever seen....

[Philip P]

Klitschko has to do more to prove himself as worthy of being in the top three, but I wouldn't give Haye much of a hope with him. I think Abraham would knock out Pavlik, if Pavlik and his bigmouth trainer had the guts to get in the ring with him.

[Crashing Dashing Kid]

Ron
I cannot see how Klitschko gets into a top 10 pound for pound as he is yet to beat anyone of note.
Pacquiao is a fantastic fighter too even though I thought Marquez won both fights against him and fancied Diaz to push him back. Having said that, and despite Hatton appearing to have reached the down slope of a fantastic career, I would still pick Hatton to suffocate Manny.
Currently, Cotto is #2 and Kelly P is #3 behind Calzaghe in my book.

[Ron Lewis]

Pavlik goes up on the basis that Calzaghe will have retired, Marquez either retires or loses to Pacquiao and Chris John slides down. Abraham would have gone up already on the basis of his win over Miranda. I don't believe there will be a January match between the pair. Klitschko goes up on the basis of wins over Povetkin and Valuev. Molitor, Mijares and Caldron are all good fighters but are all after a "career-defining win".

[Nick Kelly]

I don't understand some of your ratings. If Pavlik faces Mayorga, Rubio and Duddy in his next 3 fights then he should slide in the rankings rather than go up. Moreover there are already negotiations with Abraham for a January 24th match-up.
And who can Abraham beat to climb the rankings to number 5, if it ain't Kelly Pavlik?
What's more why is Klitschko so high in the rankings? Heavyweight is one of the weakest divisions out there, and though he is the best of a bad bunch there are much better fighters in the lower divisions you have missed out, for example Steve Molitor, Cristian Mijares and Ivan Calderon.
I can't see Pacquiao being removed from number 1 unless he loses as a defeat of Valero is enough to keep him there, without any other fights. The only person I can see beating him up until 147 is Juan Manuel Marquez.

[James Fairweather]

Until Khan has learned either to fight on the inside or to keep his chin out of the way at long range, the names that should feature on his resume in the near future should be those of Yuri Romanov or Jonathan Thaxton. Any or all of Pacquiao, Julio Diaz, Casamayor, Campbell and Katsidis do not look very sensible propositions just now.

Khan is increasingly reminding me of Howard Davis Jnr. Great amateur, then, as a pro, floored by a feather fisted counter-puncher (Limond for Khan, Vilomar Fernandez for Davis) and a shopworn banger (Gomez for Khan, Norman Goins for Davis). Like Khan, Davis rebounded to win both fights, but he had given clear sign of the frailties that were then properly exposed by Jim Watt in their world title fight. Watt did this without being a particularly murderous puncher - one can only fear for Khan if he goes in against Pacquiao or Katsidis with his current weaknesses.

[Phill Arrowsmith]

Great idea - please post this again in 12 months time along with your actual list. It will be fascinating to see how correct you are.
I think you've got a couple wrong:
David Haye will be higher (about 3 or 4) after smashing a name heavyweight.
Juan Manuel Lopez will be number 2 after smashing everyone but will feel like the real number 1 because neither Cotto or Pavlik will have faced anyone who represents progress.
Chris John will start losing and will go below 10.
Hatton, I fear will lose his fight after Malignaggi (or it will be meaningless) so will go down to 10.
Klitschko will bore his way down to 20th and I've a sneaking suspicion that Chris Arreola will take his place.