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How do you measure the efficiency of a health care system? Conservatives For Patients’ Rights think they know the answer, writes Tom Whipple. Campaigning against “socialised medicine” in President Obama’s forthcoming healthcare bill, they cite access to drugs, testing restrictions and waiting times as key considerations. There is another cruder, but perhaps more quantifiable, measure: life expectancy. In terms of years gained for GDP spent, who in the OECD should Congress be looking to emulate? Well, South Korea. As a proportion of GDP (not, note, absolute spending) the USA spends two and a half times the amount of South Korea on healthcare, and achieves slightly worse life expectancy. In fact, as the below graph shows, there appears to be something very strange going on with US healthcare. Amongst the other OECD countries there is a loose, but clear, correlation between health spending and life expectancy. But the US cannot even be called an outlier to this distribution – it is on a different curve entirely.
Could it be that socialized medicine might not be such an inefficient solution after all? Or is there another explanation?
Levi Johnston - former fiancé of Bristol Palin and the father of her young child - has been offering up pearls of wisdom on Sarah Palin’s resignation as governor. Would he vote for her to be President?
"I think she's a great lady, but after seeing what she did now, you know, leaving Alaska, I would have to say, 'no.' Obviously she's stressed out as governor. I mean moving up to the vice president or president is huge. I just don't think anymore that she's cut out for the job." "She had talked about how nice it would be to take some of this money people had been offering us and you know just run with it, say 'forget everything else,'" he said. He said he thinks book deals were really what appealed to Palin."I think the big deal was the book. That was millions of dollars," said Johnston, who has had a strained relationship with the family but now says things have improved. And, no doubt, will come on in leaps and bounds after this helpful intervention.
From my Saturday Review column: Last week I wrote about studies into the lifespan of rock stars. A reader has recommended to me a further piece of work on the health of musicians.
In a paper for the British Journal of Psychiatry, Geoffrey Wills has examined Forty Lives in the Bebop Business. He studied mental health in a group of eminent jazz musicians, seeking to discover if it is the case that such people suffer more mental health problems than you might expect in an ordinary group of the same size. Wills begins his paper with the words : “There is now a comprehensive literature that convincingly demonstrates a link between psychopathology and creativity in the arts.” His careful classification of the problems faced by various jazz icons adds weight to this literature. Creativity may be tied up with very dark emotions.
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From my Saturday Review column: “What we need to do is to raise their self-esteem”. How often have you heard that? Well, I have often wondered if this is really correct.
I have been much influenced by a piece of research on training, which suggested that it often drove unemployment among trained people upwards. Their valuation of themselves had gone up more than the increase in their real value. As a result, the trainees were demanding too high wages.Now I have come across — thanks to the science writer Ed Yong — research that tackles the self-esteem issue head-on. Sander Thomas, of Utrecht University, and colleagues surveyed 206 children between the ages of 9 and 12. They were asked to score how much they liked their classmates and to estimate what their own average score would be.
Then, at random, the researchers told some students that they were unpopular, gave them a fake low score and surveyed them about their reaction to the news. The more realistic the students were about how others saw them, the better they were able to take the fake information. Those who thought too highly (or too poorly) of themselves took it much worse.
On this evidence, at least, the right thing to be doing is promoting a realistic view of self-worth, rather than an inflated notion of self-esteem.
Christopher Caldwell’s interview with David Cameron – long anticipated by those inclined to wait with bated breath for such things (I hold my hands up here) – has been published in the New York Times. It’s long, thorough and makes a good read.
There are two points I’d particularly like to hear your thoughts on. The first is Caldwell’s deft reflection on what Cameron might teach the Republican party: Cameron’s rise has led some conservative thinkers in the United States, notably the Times Op-Ed columnist David Brooks, to suggest that Republicans follow his lead. Speaking to Charlie Rose in April, Brooks described Cameronism as the “natural alternative” to the “technocratic” politics of Barack Obama and summed up Cameron’s philosophy this way: “You’re going to champion the technocrats in government; I’m going to champion every other institution in society, whether it’s family, career associations, the church — every other association you can think of.” A pragmatic kind of communitarianism runs through a lot of Cameron’s policies. His advisers, particularly the party’s shadow education secretary, Michael Gove, argue in defense of local institutions, from schools with competitive enrollments to small post offices, whose contributions to community cohesion don’t appear on the bottom line and are often invisible to orthodox Thatcherites. The second – presented as rather more of a fait accompli by Caldwell – seems more contentious (though I’m not inclined to say he’s wrong): The gap between rich and poor is wider in Britain than it is in most advanced economies. The politics of class, however, are more complicated than they used to be. Political consultants, when they describe the electorate, often use a classification system devised by British sociologists. ABs are managers and professionals, who were once reliable Tory voters; Cs are various laborers. But ABs broke for Labour in recent elections, and C2s (skilled laborers) were a bulwark of Thatcherism, playing a role in Tory coalitions analogous to that of “Reagan Democrats” in Republican ones. As elites have become more meritocratic, the Tory Party is no longer their natural home. A result is that having a toff as leader now worries the Tories less. Maybe Cameron’s popularity means that the public is falling back into what the historian R. H. Tawney called “that habit of mean subservience to wealth and social position, . . . which is still the characteristic and odious vice of Englishmen.” But maybe a shared consumerism is making people think about class less in terms of power than of lifestyle. Consider Johnnie Boden, a graduate of both Eton and Oxford, whose catalog business sells an image of casual refinement to Middle England and Middle America. 'Toffs' - a redundant, relic of a moniker that's ready for scrappage, or still a real sore point in our society and politics? Lend me your thoughts.
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- Sarah Ebner in School Gate: The university “black hole” when it comes to places. How do you feel?
- David Kurtz in Talking Points Memo: The Grey Lady Can’t Catch a Break
- Tom Bevan in RCP Blog: Palin’s Super Powers Explained
- Martin Rosenbaum in Open Secrets: ‘Staggering’ increase in ICO appeals
- Tom Harris in And another thing: You’re through now, caller
With Obama safely in the hot seat, Americans can surely look forward, once more, to summer holidays abroad without subterfuge. They can unpick the maple leaves sewn onto their suitcases under George W, and stop passing their accents off as "Canadian, honest". America is back where it belongs, snug in the centre of hearts and estimations across the world. Because that was the deal, right? They give us Obama, we (citizens of the rest of the world) stop hating them. Or not. According to a new poll, while Obama is viewed positively in most of the world, global attitudes toward America have barely improved at all. The report summarises: Asked whether they have confidence in Barack Obama to "do the right thing regarding world affairs," for all nations (excluding the US) an average of 61 percent say they have some or a lot of confidence.
But asked how the US treats their government, few--on average just one in four--say it "treats us fairly," while two-thirds say that it "abuses its greater power to make us do what the US wants." Overall, these views are no better than they were in 2008. Only three countries diverged from this view (Kenya, Nigeria, and Germany). Better fish that maple leaf out of the trash then. It looks like we're not quite ready to settle this old grudge. (Hat tip: FiveThirtyEight)
Can we borrow the President's name to bolster business at our - totally unconnected - grocery store in Brooklyn? Yes we can...
Especially if it's located somewhere called Clinton Hill... (Hat tip: Ben Smith)
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- Brian Doherty in Reason Magazine: 20,000 Nations Above the Sea: Is floating the last, best hope for liberty?
- Andrew Norton in Policy: On Liberty at 150
- Ryan Streeter in The American Interest: Taking the Measure
- Nic Fleming in New Scientist: Good dancers make the fittest mates
Meet Watson – a computer and, in all likelihood, next year’s big TV star. After all , what’s not to like? Watson – something like the love child of Dev from Slumdog Millionaire and HAL from A Space Odyssey – has been designed in an IBM lab in New York to compete in America’s favourite quiz show, 'Jeopardy!' If all goes to plan, he’ll make his debut sometime next year, and clash wits with human contestants on the show. It’s not a new idea. As far back as 1997, an IBM supercomputer called Deep Blue played and beat the world champion Garry Kasparov at chess (though Kasparov claimed the match was unfair, and subsequently drew with a different version of the program). But Jeopardy is a far bigger challenge for computers. While chess is a game of logic –each piece having clearly defined powers – answering Jeopardy questions requires a subtle understanding of language. A successful player needs to be able to recognise puns, double entrendres and analogies. To give you an idea, here's CNNMoney.com's David Goldman, pitting his wits against Watson: Alright. Ready to go. Finger on the buzzer. Watson picks geography for $400. This should be easy, I'm thinking. "Eighty percent of Algeria is covered by this desert." I know this one! I buzz in quickly. "Player two, Watson." Huh? "What is Sahara?" says the computer's simulated voice. Too fast for me. Waton’s software needs to interact with human on human terms and, to beat the buzzer, do so fast. It’s not exactly a thinking computer, but an understanding one. Not connected to the Internet, he will make his answers based on text previously “read”, or processed and indexed. As a contestant, he has his limits. For one, he is deaf so the quiz show rules will be adapted so that he can receive questions as electronic text while the human contestants will both see the written question and hear it spoken by the host. But he can speak to give his answers, albeit it with a synthesised voice, and - like countless reality TV stars before him - winning this game show could open up a future of great possibility for him: helping doctors treat patients, or banks assess risk for example. That’s one small step for a computer, one giant leap for artificial intelligence.
Iain Dale reports that “Guardian Targets Coulson in Bugging Story” Alistair Campbell says “Cameron had better be sure he’s right” Tim Montgomerie agrees that “The Guardian guns for Rupert Murdoch… And Andy Coulson” Guido Fawkes on, yes you’ve guessed it, “Coulson, Coulson, Coulson” Paul Waugh on a key bit of evidence from "Les Hinton on who knew what on NoW bugging"
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- Jon Snow in Snowblog: Power and powerlessness
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- Jim Pickard in Westminster Blog: Mortgage lending: a dilemma for ministers
- Peter Stothard: Michael Jackson night: another show
Did you celebrate it? In the wee hours of this morning, and again at just after midday this afternoon, the clock struck a time that only occurs twice a century.
Any ideas? It’s 12:34:56 7/8/9, or 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9. Granted, you have to use the American calendar to pull it off, but still... Here’s hoping you caught them (I didn't, but at least we can cheat time and catch them again - on the British calendar - next month). (Hat tip: The Riff)
David Herdson (who is, I think, blogging away very nicely on politicalbetting in Mike Smithson absence) asks whether Norwich North by-election is the forgotten contest.
He is certainly correct that it isn't being covered all that much at the moment. However, it is quite early days and there is time for things to pick up.
If things do trundle on and the Conservatives win the seat, as they are favourites to do at the moment, then the Greens should look back on this as a huge missed opportunity.
They are perfectly placed for an insurgent campaign. They are credible challengers with a local base and there is a real hunger for an alternative. The Greens could have won.
Indeed, they actually still could.
The problem is that their candidate - Rupert Read - while articulate, pleasant, and local, is also quite hardcore. They could - probably should - have selected a candidate who is less of an idelogue.
Read may prove hard to vote for if you are someone to whom, say, freeganism - eating food that is about to be thrown away - is an unfamiliar and slightly exotic idea. Nevertheless he does have in his hands the greatest chance the Greens have ever had of winning a seat in the Commons.
If the election runs to form and the Greens don't win, they will probably portray second or third place as a great victory. Actually they should be disappointed. They will hold a celebration when they should be holding a careful inquiry.
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Preparing my column - on Robert McNamara - for this morning's paper, involved reacquanting myself with one of the - in fact perhaps the - greatest political books I have ever read.
David Halberstam's The Best and The Brightest is a profile of two things. First, the team of brilliant young men who came to Washington with JFK. And second, the decisions that led to the Vietnam War.
With a wonderful prose style to assist him, Halberstam sketches the Kennedy men in turn, finding the right place in the narrative to place each profile. He helps you to understand relationships and characters and is careful not to be anachronistic - he makes sure that his profiles develop as the story does.
But the profile of the Vietnam decision is even better.
Halbertsam shows how early political decisions are made, often without the protagonists even realising that they they have made a decision at all.
This is an ideal book for those who like a meaty work of non fiction to take on holiday.
If you enjoyed the political strand of The Wire, then I've got a recommendation for you.
You need to watch the Academy Award nominated documentary - Street Fight. It covers the 2002 Mayoral election in Newark. The level of corruption and intimidation is extraordinary. The use of police to sustain the Mayor's power is eye popping.
It strongly reminded me of the clash between Mayor Royce and Thomas Carcetti.
But even if you have no interest in The Wire at all, you will want to watch Street Fight.
The challenger Cory Booker is a coming man in US politics, having finally won the Mayoralty in 2006. We are all going to hear a great deal more about him. His programmes for City reform make him a fascinating figure in black politics and explain why traditionalists tried to keep him out.
Last week former Newark Mayor Sharpe James, the incumbent in 2002, was sentenced to more than 2 years in jail for corruption.
The best two lines from ABC News’ all-at-sea interview with Sarah Palin come from her discussions of the ethics allegations that have dogged her term: “.. the adversaries would love to see us put on a path of personal bankruptcy so we couldn’t afford to run” for… 2012? “I think on a national level your department of law there in the White House would look at this, the things we have been charged with, and automatically throw them out…” Ermmm…‘department of law’? Does she mean the White House council’s office? See a short, edited version above.
Swift on the heels of her adventures on Twitter, Sarah Brown has launched a blog to chronicle her experience of the G8 summit.
She promises photos and insights into the minds of the L’Aquila WAGs. Watch this space…
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- Josh Gerstein in Politico: President Obama’s tough talk for Russia
- Iain Dale in Iain Dale’s Diary: Memories of 7/7
- Peter Hoskin in Coffee House: To freeze or not to freeze?
- Steven D. Levitt in Freakonomics: The Next Financial Crisis: Virtual Banks
- Mark Henderson in Science Central: Genomic medicine, the NHS, and the case against a democratic House of Lords
You may not find their brand of humour palatable, and a number of you - quite fairly - are going to want to look away now.
But I think it’s worth commenting briefly on the latest post on the Viceland Blog – Babes of the BNP. They’ve sought out a number of 'atypical' BNP supporters to interview. Atypical in as much as this lot don’t have crewcuts and tattoos but dyed, poker straight hair and plenty of slap. The blog prints a provocative photo of each girl beside an interview with them. A typical exchange goes along the lines of this, with Rebecca Edwards from Manchester (pictured – with oh so subtle symbolism - partly veiled in the British flag):
When people say the BNP is a fascist party, what do you think? Fascist – I don’t understand that word. Think of Nazi Germany, or 1930s Italy. I can’t even remember when that happened really, but I’m against them anyway. You’re against who? The Germans. I know that sounds evil… I was brought up that way. Or this, from Helen Riddell, Newcastle: What if immigrants only asked to be allowed into the country on condition they had been sterilised, so that they couldn’t create any children to further burden the state? Would that be a potential solution? Um, yeah, I think so. It is purposefully crude, and arguably, a cheap shot. But the point is powerfully wrought. There is now, of course, less of a ‘type’ of BNP voter than has traditionally been imagined. These girls are bigoted certainly, silly for sure, uneducated in all likelihood, but also, frighteningly, ordinary.
Four years ago, while researching a book, the American journalist Steve Coll was introduced to a man who had been a friend and neighbour of the teenage Osama Bin Laden. The meeting sparked a long and frustrating hunt in which Coll chased stories and gathered fragments of evidence to support his budding thesis: that the young bin Laden had once made a trip to the United States. It looks like he’s finally got his proof. On his blog over at The New Yorker, Coll reproduces an excerpt from the forthcoming book Growing Up Bin Laden, by bin Laden's first wife Najwa bin Laden and his son, Omar bin Laden, soon to be published by St. Martin’s Press. Najwa describes towing two babies across the world to Indiana, following her husband's whim, only to while away her time in Indiana as her husband makes shadowy business trips.
But it’s the smallest details that are most fascinating. Trips to a shopping mall in Indiapolis, the gawping men at airports… and most of all the thought of Osama on the streets of Los Angeles.
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Stephen Pollard reports following Bernie Ecclestone's extraordinary comments in The Times about Hitler and other dictators:
I now know who was advising Mr Ecclestone on his crisis management strategy. Step forward Lord Mandelson, who had at least one lengthy conversation with Bernie Ecclestone yesterday and who told him what best to do to kill off the story.
This I know for a fact. There has also been information, although I can't verify this, that one of Lord Mandelson's minions wrote Mr Ecclestone's Times piece today.
I can help. Bernie Ecclestone's piece was not written by one of Lord Mandelson's minions.
A further thought about Bernie the Bolt.
His comments sound bizarre because he brought Hitler into it. If he'd stopped at Saddam, he wouldn't have had nearly as much difficulty.
You see, the argument that Saddam was a strong man and without him there is chaos - an argument that Ecclestone correctly understood is not a million miles away from making the same point about Hitler - is a common and widely accepted argument, with a great deal of left support.
I simply can’t believe I missed, last month, the most brilliant story of the year. Spotted, belatedly, this morning: Staff at Nepal's main international airport are to be issued with trousers without pockets, in an attempt to wipe out rampant bribe-taking.
The country's anti-corruption body said there had been growing complaints about staff at Kathmandu's Tribhuvan airport. A spokesman said trousers without pockets would help the authorities "curb the irregularities". The move comes after the prime minister of Nepal said corruption was damaging the airport's reputation, AFP reported. The Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) said it had sent a team to the airport to "observe the growing complaints about the behaviour of airport authorities and workers towards travellers". "We discovered that the reports were true," spokesman Ishwori Prasad Paudyal told the AFP news agency. "So we decided that airport officials should be given trousers with no pockets." Surely the most bizarre anti-corruption measure ever? That's a challenge...
Meanwhile Mickey Kaus has been counting Palin theories:
I can see 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Palin theories ... and counting: 1) She's running for president; 2) She's undergoing fame withdrawal and plans to get more attention in the lower 48; 3) She wants to cash in ($); 4) There's another shoe about to drop; 5) She'll now run against Murkowski for Senate. 6) She needs to tend to her family. 7) She's bonkers. 8) She's preggers. 9) She wants to "effect positive change outside government at this point in time on another scale and actually make a difference for our priorities." 10) Actually being a governor in a recession is no fun. Gives you ulcers. 11) She worried she wasn't giving "Alaska's issues" the attention they deserve, and was being criticized for that; 12) She's "fed up with politics ... the personal garbage" etc.. 13) She wants to fight back without one hand tied behind her back. 14) The Alaska legislature now hates her; ... These theories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. ... I have no fish in this hunt.
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Andrew Sullivan who - ahem - has never much liked Sarah Palin, is posting with great verve on her demise/brilliant political manouvere.
He provides a round-up of rumours and speculation here.
As part of a post on the Labour Party's internal difficulties, Fraser Nelson provides a link to the personal page of Ed Balls. Not a site I normally find myself attracted to.
It is a spectacularly lame document. But interesting nonetheless.
Its start is unexceptional:
Ed Balls was elected Labour and Co-operative MP for the Normanton constituency on 5 May 2005. He was appointed Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families in June 2007 and was previously Economic Secretary to the Treasury.
Then the spin begins:
An active member of Unite, Unison and the Co-operative Party, before his election to Parliament he was proud to be in public service as Economic Adviser to Gordon Brown MP and Chief Economic Adviser to the Treasury.
Why is Ed Balls an active member of two trade unions? Why would a Secretary of State who has only ever been a journalist and a political adviser, be a member of two trade unions that have nothing to do with journalism? And what does he mean active - what exactly is it that he does? He is hardly Miriam Carlin in the Rag Trade.
I note, incidentally, that he leaves out his period as a journalist altogether. Why?
His description of his period as Labour research assistant to the Shadow Chancellor as "public service" is simultaneously defensible and ridiculous.
He continues:
At the Treasury his job was to advise on government economic policy including Bank of England independence, the Windfall tax, the New Deal for jobs and the Winter Fuel Allowance.
He left out the huge public spending spurt and saying that boom and bust had ended.
Ed is determined to fight to win more skilled jobs for our district. He wants to see more police on the beat and a fair deal for pensioners. Living locally, a dad with three kids, he knows we need more high-quality childcare which local families can afford.
How does one fight to win more skilled jobs for the district? How would fighting help? What does he mean fighting to get skilled jobs? And who does he fight with? The Prime Minister?
Finally we get this:
Ed comes from a Labour family. It was the welfare state, created by a Labour government in 1945, which enabled his father - from a widowed family in a working class community - to get a scholarship to University.
He is married to Yvette Cooper, the MP for Pontefract and Castleford. They have three children – Ellie, Joe and Maddy - and live in Castleford.
If you don't believe in inheritance, why does it matter that you come from a Labour family? But if you do, then this is hardly a rounded portrait. His father's background is described, but not his own - the private school educated son of a distinguished scientist who taught at Eton.
I'm also bemused at his second mention of having three children, although perhaps the earlier mention of three kids referred to a collection of three pet goats.
What is my point? That there is nothing wrong with Ed Ball's real background. That he could be perfectly proud of it. And that his attempt to make himself sound as if he is a working class union leader is absurd and depressing.
Richard A Johnson in American Heritage: The Outsider: How Robert McNamara changed the automobile industry The World Bank Archives: Robert Strange McNamara The World Bank Archives: Bank Pays Tribute to Robert McNamara Doug Saunders in The Globe and Mail: ‘It’s just wrong what We’re Doing’ Roxanne Roberts in The Washington Post: Wedding Bells for Robert McNamara Noam Chomsky on Robert McNamara Thomas W. Lippman in The Washington Post: Robert McNamara, Architect of Vietnam War, Dies at 93 Times Archive, 28 May 1962: Transformation of U.S. Armed Forces Times Archive, 29 May 1963: Firm Civilian Grip on Pentagon
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What does it all mean? Palin’s surprise announcement, on Friday, that she is quitting as Governor of Alaska left a load of July 4 dinners in a Marie Celeste state of abandonment as commentators scrambled to explain her move. The first scenario ventured goes something like this. It’s part of the bigger plan and somehow masks a greater, iron-clad will to bypass the local politics of governorship and head straight for the 2012 presidential elections. This interpretation sees Palin conjuring a giant smokescreen to disguise her plan for world domination, possibly while stroking a pristine, white Siamese cat. It gets some mileage from the message Palin posted to supporters on her facebook page: "I am now looking ahead and how we can advance this country together with our values of less government intervention, greater energy independence, stronger national security, and much-needed fiscal restraint. I hope you will join me. Now is the time to rebuild and help our nation achieve greatness!" But it also totally misses the point. You need to look at how she’s talking, not what she’s saying if you want to get a proper sense of what’s going on. Because, lets face it, the words are totally, utterly crazy. “Why “milk it,” as she put it, when you can quit it?” writes Maureen Dowd in the New York Times. “Only dead fish go with the flow,” she said, while cold fish can blow out of town. Leaving Alaska in the lurch is best for Alaska. She can better “effect change” in government from outside government. She can fulfill her promise of “efficiencies and effectiveness” by deserting Juneau midway through her term — and taking her tanning bed with her. “We need those who will respect our Constitution,” said Palin, who swore on the Bible to uphold the Constitution. She said she can’t fulfill that silly old oath of office in the usual way because she’s not “wired to operate under the same old politics as usual.” Naturally, she dragged the troops in, saying that her trip to see wounded soldiers overseas “fortified” her decision to give up because “they don’t give up. Watching the footage, listening to her difficulty controlling her breath, seeing her racing through her sentences, the high pitched edge to her voice, the forced good humour like a pressure cooker on the point of explosion, it’s obvious. She wasn't prepared enough for this. And she thought competition was her strong point. She’s a hockey mom. A hunter. But really, it’s her Achilles heel. Because 'Sarah Baracuda' learnt competition on a high school basketball court. It saw her through local politics, fine, but she's been given no time to adjust to the new rules, perameters and nuances that come with this different game. She's got guts. She may really imagine that she’ll bounce back for 2012 but, without a miracle comeback, it now looks impossible that her emotional understanding will withstand it. Because it has already come undone. And the greatest proof of this is that she’s not even telling herself the truth yet. She thinks she’s doing it for Alaska. That she’s still on top and making the calls. Yet the only bit of her speech that really rings true comes at around the 4.38 mark, when she says “I will support others who seek to serve. In, or out of office. And I don’t care what party they’re in or no party at all.” Her gestures lose their weird, wired puppetry and she breathes naturally, with the pure relieved exhaustion of someone who's thrown in the towel. So, in an odd way, Tina Brown is right to be reminded of "the unraveling Princess Diana made in December 1993." “Over the next few months,” the princess announced to a startled audience at a luncheon to benefit the Headway National Injuries Association in London, “I will be seeking a more suitable way of combining a meaningful public role, with hopefully, a more private life. I hope you can find it in your hearts to understand and give me the time and space that has been lacking in recent years.” Then she burst into tears. Like Princess Diana, who was both an addict of fame and its tormented victim, Palin is at constant war with the exposure she seems to live for. In Diana’s case, it was the raucous tabloids and their pitiless photographers who stalked her every waking hour alone or with her children. In Palin’s case, it’s that malign aristocratic phantom, the “media elite.” It’s hard to feel as sorry for Palin as one did for Diana. The comely governor is so cocky in her ignorance, so relentless in pursuit of her own rise to fame, her arrogance makes it much harder to see her vulnerability. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t there. Like Diana, what she was really saying in that rambling resignation speech was one word: "HELP!”
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- Carlin Romano in The Chronicle of Higher Education: Obama, Philosopher in Chief
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- Andrew O’Hehir in Salon: Everything you think you know about communism is wrong
Will he go? Won't he go? As Govenor Sanford's political future hangs in the balance, 10 politicians who survived a public airing of their dirty laundry.
David Vitter
After the Louisiana senator’s name was uncovered amongst the phone records released a D.C. Madam, the senator publicly apologized - also announcing his confession to God - with his wife by his side. Sounds familiar. But here’s where Vitter’s story diverges from the traditional model (think Spitzer..). The story dissolved, and Vitter got on with his life. Surivial tactic: A Democratic governor would have chosen his successor. Republicans discovered a hidden store of empathy.
Barney Frank
A Democratic U.S. congressman for nearly 30 years and the first openly gay member of the House, Barney Frank almost undid his career in 1989 after his lover, Steve Gobie told all. Including his occupation as a male prostitute. Working from Frank’s home. Survival tactic: Frank requested an investigation by the House ethics committee, which proved, after 10 long months, that he hadn’t known what was going on under his roof. He went on to win several reelections by wide margins.
Francois Mitterrand
When Francois Mitterrand died, the world learned the secret kept by a small circle throughout his presidency of France: for decades he had lived a double life. Anne Pingeot was less mistress than alternative wife with whom he had a daughter. Survival tactic: The discretion of a tight inner circle
John F Kennedy
Move over Clinton. The youngest president to be elected to the White House, JFK lured air hostesses, models and Marilyn Monroe. Yet his reputation remained untarnished Survival tactic: Universal adoration
Silvio Berlusconi
Italy's Prime Minister has been bogged down in an endless sex scandal in recent months, featuring, amongst other things: a messy divorce, allegations that he slept with a minor, a prostitute’s kiss and tell and photos of naked parties. Survival tactic: Buy some media outlets. Then buy more. Jerry Springer
In 1974, a raid on a Kentucky brothel uncovered a check written for a prostitute's services and signed by Jerry Springer, then serving in Cincinnati's city council. Survival tactic: Springer came clean in a press conference and resigned. City residents were so impressed by his candour that they reelected him in 1975 and made him mayor in 1979
Paddy Ashdown
Ashdown’s marriage and career weathered an illicit affair with his secretary, Tricia Howard, even surviving the nickname, given him by The Sun, ‘Paddy Pantsdown’. Survival tactic: Howard was five years older than him, a factor that may (possibly?) have helped with the older female vote
Mark Oaten
Oaten’s career (not to mention his marriage) hung in the balance in 2006 when it transpired that he had been soliciting rent boys on the internet. Survival tactic: At the 11th hour, Oaten came up with the brilliant excuse that he had paid for affection because he was worried about going bald. Whether through sympathy or because he had given everyone a good laugh, it worked. He resigned as shadow home secretary but remained MP for Winchester Lord Boothby
Where to start with Lord Boothby? There were the accusations of an affair with Ronald Kray, tales of numerous flings with married women… But most spectacular was the way in which he managed to cuckold his own Prime Minister, fathering, it is suspected, Harold Macmillan's fourth child. Survival tactic: Pure audacity? He managed to make PPS to Churchill, Parliamentary Secretary to the Ministry of Food and the House of Lords in 1958. He sought the seat in the Lords from Macmillan, even though the PM knew of his affair with Dorothy. Macmillan appointed him.
Bill Clinton
And finally… Paula Jones, Kathleen Willey, Juanita Broaddrick, Gennifer Flowers, Elizabeth Ward Gracen, Sally Perdue, Dolly Kyle Browning, Monica Lewinksy and a humiliating impeachment trial... yet Bill Clinton served out his second term and his marriage remains intact. Survival tactic: His economic approval was high and disapproval of his sexual behavior was only high among people who didn’t want to vote for him anyway.
I am not sure what the correct reaction to this news is - delight, gloom, horror or bewilderment.
I have just learned that Sony Pictures intended to make a film of Michael Lewis's book Moneyball starring Brad Pitt, but have now pulled out. The film is back in development hell.
Delight: The reason for delight is that anyone should have gone close to a film on this subject. Moneyball is one of my favourite books of the last few years. It traces the success of Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane.
Beane built a winning team with little money using stats to help him. He sees sports as me and my Fink Tank colleagues do - more easily comprehended by watching data than watching play. His success is a vindication of the sort of idea that we have been pressing in the soccer world.
And they have implications beyond this. I believe that history is much better understood viewing long-term averages than chronicling the outcome of individual political decisions.
Gloom: My experience of projects returning to development is that they don't readily return.
Horror: In order to make a film out of the unpromising material on Moneyball, it would have been necessary to add in melodrama that is totally at variance with the basic idea. Apparently the thinking was to build on the relationship between Billy and his daughter. Anyway, you can just imagine.
Bewilderment: I regard Billy as a sporting hero and Michael Lewis a very fine journalist. But a Hollywood film of Moneyball? Really? Beane does defy sporting conventional wisdom, so I can see how that plays. But he does it using internet searches and equations which I think might be quite hard to film.
However, what do I know? After all, Brad Pitt is a fine actor, perhaps he can pull it off.
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The Republicans have a 2012 problem.
The conventional wisdom is that it is the adultery of Nevada's Senator John Ensign and South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford that has left them in a mess.
But that - as Michael Barone points out - is overdone. These were possible candidates but hardly likely winners.
No, what leaves Republicans with a problem is not lack of a candidate it is lack of a platform.
It is hard to see a position with which a candidate could win the nomination and then win the country. This point is made most forcefully by studying Mitt Romney's campaign in 2008.
This is worth it for two reasons. First, because it is instructive about the difficulty of reconciling audiences and second, because Romney seems a very likely compromise in 2012.
Barone makes the following points:
One problem [with Romney] was that he switched positions on cultural issues, presumably with an eye on the dominance of cultural conservatives in Iowa; that and his vast expenditures did not produce a victory in Iowa (or in New Hampshire), but it did create an impression of insincerity which might very well account for that crucial 3 percent of the vote which went for McCain and not for him in post-Iowa primaries.
Imagine for a minute another possible Romney 2008 strategy: run primarily as a fiscal conservative, skip Iowa and concentrate on New Hampshire, get that extra 3 percent between January 19 and Super Tuesday February 5, and then enter the next run of primaries—Maryland and Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio and Texas, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana—running even with McCain in delegates and far ahead of him in money.
In those circumstances it is conceivable Romney might have won the nomination and have been in a position to cast himself as an expert on economics and finance—more expert certainly than Barack Obama—after the failure of Lehman Brothers and the financial crisis in mid-September. President Romney? Might have happened.
Romney's fiscal conservatism may make him ideal in 2012 because it is one of the few issues on which the Republicans can agree with each other and still get traction.
He will, however, have a difficult decision. Should he reflip on social issues to be more like his real position or stick with his new stance and take a hit with voters.
And if he does reflip, when should he do it?
Alec Baldwin, Hollywood actor and left activist, has a new cause. Free Bernard Madoff! Yes, really.
Here is his reasoning:
Madoff got 150 years?
Why?
Does that serve the greater good?
Does that really contribute to solving the problems that stemmed from Madoff's misdeeds?
I want to suggest, as I am confident others have, that Madoff be given a reduced sentence in exchange for answering every question that investigators ask regarding how he did what he did and what are his recommendations for how this might be detected and/or prevented in the future.
Put him away for life?
Who does that help? The incompetents at the SEC who stood by and allowed this to happen?
Madoff should become the Frank Abagnale of the securities and investment fraud universe.
What can we learn from him, to actually change things?
What happens if his advice on how to prevent this happening again is to threaten people with 150 year prison sentences?
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"Left to his own devices he couldn’t build a toaster. He could just about make a sandwich and that was it." (Mostly Harmless, Douglas Adams)
Sure, I'll admit it. I couldn’t build a toaster. I’m not talking about a bread-on-skewer-over-a-bonfire toaster (though, thinking about it, I’d probably struggle with the bonfire bit too). I mean a proper, modern, bread-browning electrical appliance.
And I don’t care. Or, at least, I didn’t until I read into the conversation currently circulating around the blogs.
It all started when Thomas Thwaites, a student at the Royal College of Art, started to try to make a toaster from scratch, beginning at the beginning – by mining the raw materials – and ending “with a product that Argos sells for only £3.99”.
He needs copper to make the pins of the electric plug, the cord and the internal wires. He needs iron to make the steel grilling apparatus, and the spring to pop up the toast. He needs nickel to make the heating element.
But it's a sysyphean task. Because through all the sweat and all the effort, he knows he won't be able do it. In the end, he'll have to use modern appliances - like the microwave (ironically) he uses to smelt iron ore. Which makes him despair of himself and his task - a a symbol of the “helplessness” of the modern consumer.
‘Calm down dear’ says Radly Balko (more or less) on Reason Online. The fact that we can’t make a toaster doesn’t make us the prisoners of consumerism, quite the opposite. It means we’ve been liberated by the free markets. Pointing to the earlier ‘I, Pencil’ experiment by Leonard Reid, Balko points out that division of labor is what makes the making of pencils, microwaves “and, for that matter, all of the conveniences of modern life” possible.
It takes thousands to manufacture a single toaster.
...and every participant is in the game for his own self interest—to make a living, and to make a contribution that's really only a tiny part of the end result of a product, even one as insignificant as the humble pencil. Pan back until you've framed the entire world economy, and it's hard not to marvel at the wonder and miracle of capitalism's invisible hand. It's a peculiar kind of "helplessness" that enables us to benefit from the shared labor of millions of workers and the collected knowledge of millions of people accumulated over hundreds of years by merely traveling to the nearest Wal-Mart or appliance store, or, better yet, by merely clicking the mouse on a computer a few times and having the toaster (or, for that matter, groceries, or clothing, or medicine) brought directly to our homes. Toasters – miniature miracles of capitalism, or ghostly shackles of modern society? Either way – my breakfast tasted slightly different this morning.
(Hat tip: Freakonomics)
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