The 10 bloggers who can make or break Hillary

So are bloggers really the big new political voice? Mystery Pollster argues that this Presidential election is a big one for bloggers.

His theory is that Democrats like Hillary Clinton but activist bloggers, for one reason or another, don't. So what matters more? The campaign will tell.

And here is Comment Central's list of the ten bloggers who can make or break Hillary Clinton.

10. Matt Drudge: It's hard to imagine a Clinton campaign without at least one scandal or pseudo-scandal. And Drudge seems the likeliest route. How she responds will decide a great deal.

9. Duncan Black: His Atrios blog has a huge left-wing readership. But that's not all. His speciality is scrutinising the mainstream media for bias against liberals. Given the huge pressure that will be put on a Hillary campaign, she could use this independent war room operation, I'm sure. He could be the anti-Drudge.

8. Arianna Huffington: In the top ten because she's hard to ignore. Doesn't accept that Hillary is a shoo-in as the nominee. Writes for the moneyed establishment so her view could impact the race for cash.

6=. Jay Cost: One of Hillary's biggest problem is that Democrats fear that if nominated she will lose, or worse, that she simply can't win the presidency. So an important determinant of the outcome of the primaries will be astute judgement about the truth of that claim. The Real Clear Politics site will set out the polling evidence. It will be unmissable. And Jay Cost, recruited after his superb Horserace Blog in 2004, will provide analysis. His speciality is using polling to produce probabilities of different results.

6=. Mark Blumenthal: The Mystery Pollster is one of the most respected sources of polling analysis on the web. And his readiness to question the conventional wisdom will make him important to Hillary. He may help her puncture the idea that she can't win.

5. Joshua Micah Marshall: His Talking Points Memo blog is justly popular. His cool style isn't designed to rouse rabble, but his quiet influence will help the undecided Democrats work out whether to go with Hillary or Obama.

4. Andrew Sullivan: The classic swing-vote blog. He voted for Bill and also for George W. first time out. Andrew is a moderate conservative who has lately turned against the Republicans because he finds the party too extreme. If Hillary can't keep him, that suggests she can't hold together the coalition that produced the mid-term victory. This is critical, hence Andrew's high place.

2=. Markos Moulitsas Zúniga: On a given weekday his Daily Kos site has 500,000 hits from people eager to read about Democratic politics. Has a reasonable record of endorsing candidates who win primaries although some, like Ned Lamont, fall at the general election. The problem for Hillary is that Markos prefers insurgent candidates to the establishment. He's already given her both barrels in the Washington Post.

2=. Jerome Armstrong: Markos's comrade in arms, the founder of Direct Democracy and a netroot campaigner. Obama more to his taste than Hillary really, mainly because he likes something fresh each time. All in all Hillary would probably prefer the netroot campaigners to disappear into a big hole. If they don't, she's in trouble.

1. Mickey Kaus: Is Hillary a new Dem or a traditional liberal? Kaus, one of the first to consider himself a new Dem, will read the speeches and help make the call. My judgment? It may not help in the primaries, but only if Hillary steers hard toward the centre can she be President. If she is going to win the swing states, she needs to take the Mickey. I think that matters more than anything. I think confusing the liberal bloggers with the base is the worst possible error a candidate could make. So Kaus is number one.

Comments

[Anna Shepard]

There was an extremely good documentary, Blog Wars, a week or two ago on BBC4. Directed by James Rogan, a young British filmmaker (and a good friend of mine) it dealt with the power of blogs on American politics. Hopefully it'll soon be screened on terrestrial tv http://www.sundancechannel.com/film/?ixFilmID=7594

[Hip Gnosis]

About Sullivan you write: "If Hilary can't keep him...." Who ever said she HAD him? I rather have the impression that Andrew's got the hots for the big O.

[spongeworthy]

Kos: Has a reasonable record of endorsing candidates who win primaries although some, like Ned Lamont, fall at the general election.

Hoo-boy. I guess I could be said to have a reasonable record of scoring dates with supermodels although some, like Heidi Klum, have turned down my proposals.

[Altus Momberg]

Absolutely ridiculous. I can't think of a blog with less influence than Mickey Kaus. He is one of the classic ex-Dems who cries about not leaving the Party, but that the Party left him.
As such, he is rightly despised by Democrats. He will have no influence

[William Rolston]

Who is Mickey Kaus? I've heard of the others (except for jay cost).

[William Rolston]

Done some research. I think Kaus is more like number 2. At least he smells like it. I think he can break wind but not Hillary.

[TexasRainmaker]

Sorry, but the only thing that is going to break Hillary is Hillary. There is a reason her poll numbers only go up when she disappears from the public view. The liberal blogs mentioned above are zero for (insert number of candidates endorsed) and the only influence they have is over the brainwashed minority of jobless hippies that spend all day on their sites debating which conspiracy theory is more likely to tie Bush to Hitler.

[kenycky]

Unfortunately the MSM will not allow Obama to run, see what CNN has already done to Obama Jeff Greenfield a senior Analyst likened his dress sense to Ahmedenejad, they tickered Obama's name as "Osama" - they ran the fake story about his education in a Madrassa under the guise of disproving it but they still ran it multiple times, thereby spinning it in to the consciousness of a beleagured audience). Big Media will put paid to Hilary. The big Corp entities such as Clear and McClatchey are already gunning for her, News Corp is backing her reminiscent of The Sun backing Blair in the 90's but Murdoch is clever enough to see who will suit his purposes, the deregulation of the airwaves and conglomerate media came under the reigh of Bill Clinton and that is the trade off .

Edwards is a far stronger candidate for all concerned, his policies are clearer and more principled and telegenic enough for a befuddled audience struggling with state sponsored obesity, horrific weather strikes, credit card debt without bankruptcy or ombudsman protection, a military industrial complex that bank rolls the financial centre and pharma giants who are a thousand times more lethal than the Bloods or Crips or any minority that you want to blame for crime, unemployment, the end of social security or the dimishing health protection.

[Sean]

If Mr. Hand were still alive and read this article, this is what he'd say:

"Mickey Kaus? What are you people--on dope??"

[Innocent Bystander]

Fascinating compilation. As a Democrat who has been involved with online US politics since the Bush selection, I find this list rather odd. Perhaps Kaus is an opinion king inside the DC beltway, but he won't sway any rank-and file Democrats. Certainly Kos is a player today...and he'll be a bigger player in the 2008 election. Another important site is www.DemocraticUnderground.com...there are 100,000 Democrat-posters (and a few trolls) who will provide a good handicapping of the favorites, particularly in the primaries. Because Party activists vote in the primaries, I'm betting Hillary won't cut it. The general consensus from the online communities is Hillary is running a 2nd or 3rd with this people (or 4th if Gore decides to run. Single person blogs don't carry nearly as much influence as this writer believes. Kaus is a non-factor when compared with Kos and DU.

[GuyFromOhio]

Sullivan was born & raised in England, and unless he has given up his UK citizenship for the US, he cannot vote in any election.

Mickey Kaus, #1? You Brits have got the oddest sense of humor, unless this was meant to read after the fifth pint. Senator Clinton's largest obstacle to the Presidency is herself.

-GFO

[Retired Catholic]

First off, Matt Drudge has lost the edge he had in getting major play in the media. The last Obama/Madrassa pecadillo shows that the regular media may now have suddenly suffered the ind of brain damage that ends smoking addiction and have now forgotten what it's like to be a collection of toadies addicted to sycophancy, because they dared to fact check and then debunk the story. Mickey Kaus? There's a whole in your filter and the diatomatious Earth is leaking into your swimming pool(head). As one "fairly popular" blogger says, "I doubt Mickey Kaus could break a twenty, much less Hillary Clinton". Tbogg is entirely correct.

[Aaron]

Mickey Kaus? Is he a traditional conservative or a neoconservative?

[gordon in philly]

Kos is certainly no.1 at the moment and a recent poll taken on the site by more than 15,000 suggests HRC garners a whopping 2% of the vote, 3 points below Dennis Kucinich. That seems to be a fair summation as to where the netroots are at the moment regarding Hillary. Others which should have been on the poll would be Glenn Greenwald and Firedoglake.

[Chris Gillibrand]

If she wins, she will be the first politician to enter office as a caricature of themselves. Normally, politicians leave office as a caricature of themselves, cheered out by a bored public.

[ron in the desert]

A poll taken at ANY partisan site is as useful as having the Nazis investigate the Holocaust.

Or Democrats the 1960 election.

[Ohio]

Um, this review of the top 10 is distracting crack. Realclearpolitics is Bushadmin all the way. Kaus had no problem on Iraq in 2002. Sullivan was Bushadmin, changed mind he says probably to retain unjustified influence. The rest don't matter if the intent is to position a few ringers.

If you want rightwingers to choose Democrat candidates, stick with this list. If you don't, flag this writer as a right-wing fogger.

[Fred Farquat]

Mike Cann at http://myspace.com/band4masscann is gaining readers while skewering Hillary Clinton's campaign.

[M. Fernandez, San Francisco, California]

A bizarre compilation. Arianna Huffington is a complete joke, although it's true that she can't be ignored - she rolls into any room like a hurricane. Andrew Sullivan maybe conservative in the UK, but he's liberal in the US. More importantly, he's British. Did he give up his citizenship? Otherwise, he votes for no one in America.

[The Falconer]

Jay Cost's "analysis" was way off the mark in the 2006 elections. I don't see why he should be listed as a "make or break" blogger.

[رضا]

it's the power of bloggers