The end is nigh. Maybe

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has reset its Doomsday clock. Apparently, it is five minutes to midnight.

The BBC website reports on this move as follows:

Experts assessing the dangers posed to civilisation have added climate change to the prospect of nuclear annihilation as the greatest threats to humankind

Experts in what? In atomic science, I presume. This provides them with a unique insight into the consequences of a nuclear explosion, but not in the probability of it occurring. It is this probability that the clock is measuring (or should I say indicating since it isn't any kind of measure).

They also have no better insight than anyone else into climate change.

The quality of their understanding is illustrated by the fact that during the Cuban Missile Crisis the clock was further from midnight than it is now, while in 1984, when Reagan was President, it was nearer to midnight than at any other time. These seem eccentric judgments and political rather than scientific in origin.

Given that I've only got five minutes left to live I am not going to waste any more of it on the Atomic Bulletin.

Comments

[Sjolie2000]

The clock was even closer in 1953, when it was 2 minutes to midnight. That was during the Korean war and hydrogen bomb testing on both sides.

I agree with the main point, however. The "clock" is a joke. A badly timed one.