The demographics of the war on terror

Why are Palestinains killing each other? Christopher Caldwell thinks he knows.

In a fascinating column, he argues that traditional explanations may be wrong. Something very simple may be involved - an age bulge.

Caldwell draws attention to the work of German social scientist Gunnar Heinsohn:

In Mr Heinsohn's view, when 15 to 29-year-olds make up more than 30 per cent of the population, violence tends to happen; when large percentages are under 15, violence is often imminent. The "causes" in the name of which that violence is committed can be immaterial. There are 67 countries in the world with such "youth bulges" now and 60 of them are undergoing some kind of civil war or mass killing.

So when the Palestinain youths could no longer kill Israelis, they needed to find someone else to kill. And they started to kill the first people they could find - each other.

It is important to understand that Caldwell is not passing comment on the rights and wrongs of the Palestinian cause here, merely making an observation about the impact of demographics.

In fact, he goes on to suggest that the hearts and minds approach to fighting Islamicism may be pointless, since ideology has got little to do with it.

I don't quite make that leap, but his column is well worth reading.