In the bin goes the UKIP red herring

Buried half way down a post on ConservativeHome is this fascinating piece of information:

ConservativeHome also understands that Conservative MPs were told not to worry about UKIP.  Only 1.5% of Tory voters were tempted to vote for Mr Farage's party, Lord Ashcroft claimed.

This is not a minor point.

Michael Ashcroft doesn't just say things. The advice he gives comes out of his polling. And he is extremely rigorous, in my experience, about his reporting - he objects strongly to the distortion of data to make Tories feel comfortable.

So if Lord Ashcroft says that only 1.5 per cent of current Tory voters are tempted to vote for UKIP, I think you can take it that this is true.

This has very strong political implications.

The entire UKIP scare which obsesses Tory commentors and some activists is revealed as an empty piece of nonsense.

The problem for the Tory party is winning centre votes from Labour.

Comments

[Peter Briffa]

You may well be right about UKIP, Daniel, but if you read further down the comments, it seems that the Tories and others are leaking votes to the BNP, judging by two by-election results last night, in Croydon and in Bede.

[Tony Sharp]

Just a couple of things Peter. There does not appear to have been a BNP candidate in Bensham Manor (Croydon). The Bede election (Nuneaton) saw several parties field candidates in a safe Labour ward. This time the seat was not a two way contest between Labour and Conservative as before.

The Lib Dems, English Dems, BNP, Save NHS and UKIP all stood this time, splitting the vote. It could easily be argued that the bulk of the BNP vote was taken from Labour, with Tory voters staying at home. A lot of jumping to conclusions does not necessarily give an accurate picture.

[jimmy]

Sigh.

The arithmetic is inescapable:

If DC takes his party too far to the left, he'll lose votes to UKIP. If he doesn't he won't.

Whether this is significant depends critically (on a per-case basis) on the relative margins in the marginal constituencies.

A matter of maths and logic, not of rhetoric.

[UKIP@HOME]

Nuneaton Bede result Lab hold

Lab 658
BNP 546
Con 301
LibDem 119
Eng Dem 75
Save NHS 43
UKIP 8
(it takes 10 people to nominate the candidate!)

However this was not the worst UKIP result ever. That honour goes to the UKIP candidate in the Edinburgh Murrayfield by-election held on 10th November 2005 with just 4 votes. This is believed to me the worst election result for any established political party ever.

[Tomáš Ruta]

Well, what if Ashcroft simply wants to reassure the Tories that there is no danger coming from the UKIP? If the UKIP are polling only 3% at the moment, then I am sure that they are capable to quadruple that in the next European Parliament election... And they would take the votes from the Tories. I am implying that Ashcrofts analysis may be intentionally flawed.

[Stephen Morris]

It's the stay-at-homes that may be the biggest problem. I'd be reluctant to vote UKIP or BNP, but likewise I can't see any point in voting for the DC-led Conservative Party when it's so close to Labour. At the next election I may well stay home for the first time ever.

[Gabriel]

All genuine conservatives who believe in individual liberty and actually have a clue what is going on in contemporary politics will vote UKIP next elections. Conservative votes will either come from people who genuinely belive in an ever larger, ever more intrusive government, or simply those who would vote for a rotting cabbage if it had a blue rosette.

If what you say is true, then, Daniel, all it proves is what a sorry state this nation is in.

[Douglas Denny]

Dan and I have had conversations/dissagreements for a long time.
In this following comment Dan, you are wrong - and should know better:

You say: "The problem for the Tory party is winning centre votes from Labour".

No it isn't. The problem the Tories have is in NOT having credible policies and a vision for the future that makes sense - especially over the EU and economics. The Tories have abandoned their core philosophy which is to CONSERVE - conserve that is, the traditions and institutions of Britain and in particular - the British Constitution. Tory voters KNOW they have been abandoned.

The fundamental flaw in Dan's statement above is that people (considered en masse) never change their allegiences from party to party without very grave stimulation - which is very rare.The EU however, is one such issue.

Frederick Forsyth is right in his assessment today in the Torygraph: the real problem the Tories have is not in attracting back voters from Labour (they were never converted to Labour in the first place) - but in attracting back their Tory voters they had since 1997 and who simply don't vote anymore.

[Frances A Fox]

The last Conservative, Labour & Liberal Party Conferences kept quiet about the policies of The European Union especially about Britain having to pay the EU millions of pounds whilst our public services do not have enough money to run them properly.

Edward Heath when asked for a referendum for Britain before going into the EEC replied that "A referendum would not be possible because of our constitution". We had a referendum after Britain was taken into the EEC and many people were misled by the fact that the three parties Conservative, Labour & Liberal Democrats were all in favour.

When the EEC turned into the EC and then the EU Britain did not have a vote on that.

Britain has been betrayed and I never forgave Edward Heath & his government for giving away our British Waters destroying our once great Fishing Industry.

If people are so against UKIP why do they not argue point to point on the issues that UKIP are against?