Lone parents and gun crime

The mighty Chris Dillow is worried.

He thinks that Ross Clark's piece on gun crime this morning might be misinterpreted. He fears that people will read Ross and think that single parenthood causes gun crime. He then takes readers through a series of calculations that, he says, strongly suggests that single parenthood is not a cause of gun crime.

Here are the steps:

Assume that every one of the 11,084 gun crimes in 2005-6 was committed by a different 16-24 year old.

Assume that each of these gunmen was one of the 560,000 16-24 year olds brought up in a single parent household.

Even with these ridiculously heroic assumptions it means that only 2 per cent of 16-24 year olds from a lone parent household commits a gun crime [11,084 is 2 per cent of 560,000]. 98 per cent don't.

Hey presto! Lone parenthood does not cause gun crime.

Erm, wait a second.

First of all, I am not sure about Chris's figures. What he shows is not that only 2 per cent of 16-24 year olds from lone parent households commits a gun crime, it is that only 2 per cent commit a gun crime in any given year.

Using his heroic assumptions, you could argue that the number should be multiplied by eight. During the years the young people are between 16 and 24, there are 11, 084 gun crimes committed in each of the eight years.

This would mean that 16 per cent of 16-24 year olds from a lone parent household commits a gun crime at some point in their youth. That seems quite a large proportion to me!

Of course, it's all nonsense. And not just because of the heroic assumptions.

No one suggests that being the child of a single parent makes you certain to commit a crime. Or that all single parent households turn out children more likely to be criminals than if the parents of those children were still together.

The only questions are whether, on average, being in a single parent household makes you more likely to commit a crime. And whether reducing single parenthood would reduce gun crime. An affirmative answer to these two questions is completely consistent with every figure Chris cites.

What Ross Clark said was:

Those involved with gun crime tend to have grown up fatherless and in the absence of good male role models have gravitated towards gangs.

This can be true even if only a tiny proportion of those who grow up fatherless join gangs or are involved in gun crime.

Comments

[adam]

The government doing a 'tackling single parenthood' push is bound to be an utter, and embarassing, failure.

Given that conservative philosophy basically requires, as a fundamental assumption, that everyone has a chance to do well (our mean approach to social welfare, tougher approach to punishment, etc, all depend on this assumption) and given that we can hardly expect to stop people committing the activities that lead to single parent families (because rumour has it that people have sex whatever the government says), one key has to be to provide access to an acceptable education for everyone, by one means or another.

If we can point to the fact that everyone has a chance, that they get access to the necessary tools with which to improve their lives, then being mean to the people that don't make use of those tools looks a lot more defensible. Of those necessary tools, many (most?) come in the form of education; that has, of course, to be an educational experience that is as proofed as possible against lamentable parenting (because that's something else that we are unlikely to be able to change). All a conservative government can do is to give human nature the opportunity to do the sorts of things that we judge as 'good'; we can't change human nature itself. That's why I mention 'access' to a decent education; you can't make that horse drink if it doesn't want to, but if the chance is passed up, keep your hands out of my pocket when the rest of your life turns into a Festival of Suck.

[derek bevan]

What about ex and current Feral Children !

[adam]

Derek: There's always the military!

Or maybe the rendering plant.

Current problems won't go away, but treating what are effectively just symptoms isn't doing us any good at the moment, in the present or in the long term.

Note to Noam Chomsky supporters and other humourless sorts: I'm not really suggesting having naughty children rendered down. Unbunch those panties.

[Lord Truth]

Although this appears to be a complex problem there are a number of things that have contributed to this situation and that could be addressed
Males react naturally against any threatened dominance by the female.
1)In a single parent female dominant "family" the male child is continually under potential"threat"
2)To this is added the continual impression from society generally that the world revolves around women-celebrities films fashion etc.
3)The development of and apparent prevalence of homosexuality has destroyed completely the "normal " non sex friendships that were such a wonderful part of ones teens and youth in the past.These once innocent friendships must now coaless into gangs whose aggressiveness counters possible accusations they are "homosexual"
4)The overwhelming preponderance of young female teachers in schools.
In present society this is a complete recipe for social disaster.The knowledge that ones pretty teacher has, only a few hours before ,been rolling round the floor with some casual pick up -in fact is probably still carrying the sexually charged pheromones from that encounter on her person, means that any attempt to impose disciple is lost and enormous aggression generated.
Solutions .
An attempt should be made to revive male frienships that are deliberately not homosexual.
When I was a teenager I was at my friends house nearly every evening talking into the late hours then leaving -in full view of the neighbours -late at night.How impossible to do that today without being marked as "Gay"
Female treachers under fifty should never be allowed to teach boys under eighteen -if at all.
Interestingly the elderly Margaret Rutherford battleaxe kind of teacher is respected and does well as a boys teacher-but nothing under fifty
Those are a few of my many ideas about public education in Britian which continues to be a disgrace

[pcj-the]

‘Scuse me? You can't change human nature? Oh boy, here we go for the nature versus nurture battle again. Just take a good look at the world around you: many nations, many societies, many patterns of behaviour. If you can't change human nature then how come the diversity along such groupings? How come behaviour patterns in our own society have changed dramatically? If we can do things to change it for the worse (as we all too clearly have in many cases) then it is possible to change it for the better.
We now have a society which is too often wildly off course as far as personal responsibility, civility, respect for education and hard work goes. We don't have role models any more whose honesty, intelligence and hard work and tenacity are held up as items to be prized. Now the "heroes" are soap opera stars, reality trash, crooks, drug dealers, overpaid sports people, money makers of all sorts and that goes all the way along society to those who cream fat bonuses off financial work, property speculation etc (and we won't even mention the scandalous example far too many of our politicians set with lies, evasions, spin etc). Now you can be semi-literate, or even possess the IQ of a post....it doesn't matter...there's probably an instant path to fame and riches just around the corner via the media in one form or another.
Do drugs, do sex, get respect man, and blow away anyone who disses you, ‘cos you got a right to respect (no need to earn it, no need to demonstrate any of the qualities and considerations that generate respect from others) and if they don't like you bringing your street attitudes and problems into the workplace/school that's their problem. You got rights and your lawyer/social worker/Dad or more often these days Mum will be up there to tell them in no uncertain teams how they are failing you.
Oh, and as far as providing access to a good education goes I'm afraid it won't wash to assume that all the aggressive yobboes we see out there were deprived of a chance at a good education. In many instances they choose not to engage with it by a combination of truancy and bad behaviour (but not their fault ‘cos they've got a "recognised disorder" (take your pick from an unbelievably long list, some manage so many it could almost read like a list of qualifications)). Then they can always play the system to get some minimal qualification instead of working hard to achieve their best: various league tables and performance targets in schools/colleges and training systems mean they know the system will bend over backwards to get work completed from them, because the system is on the rack for results.
As for the social system being mean and depriving them: not where I live....you can watch the far too many single mums in their teens (some obviously under age), latest baby buggy, lots of bling, no shortage of cigarettes etc, often with state provided accommodation and ask yourself bewildering questions such as where does the money come from to provide for their needs and their lifestyle, why do they usually have the mouth of a trooper, why do they have no ambition other than to hang off the state, and, worst of all why will they be able to vote?!
It can be changed, but the question is whether or not the political and social will is there...that the problem won't be taken into a never ending spiral of talking committees and do-gooders and "experts" of wildly differing viewpoints..it could mean that we would be fighting the equivalent of a social civil war with a large fraction of our population to regain the hearts/minds of the next generation and the soul of our country. Don't hold your breath!

[Rocky Fernandez]

I know the police alone cannot resolve gun crime and they cannot be expected to be on every street corner They tend to only get involved after the event - we need communities including the police to regularly embrace our youth, but communities have to be willing participants. It works both ways. The Safer Neighbourhood Police Teams can only do so much and they are only a small team of maximum 5 people (on a good day) looking after an average ward population of 10,000 residents and they are not always immediately on call. Residents have complained of leaving messages on their answerphones as their mobile numbers are often diverted to their answer phone. I believe London Borough Commanders and the Commissioner, Sir Ian Blair have an unrealistic expectation that they (SNPT) and they alone can resolve gun crime. Only this afternoon, whilst walking my dog, I asked 2 young (black) lads, aged between 9 and 13 why were they throwing stones at the newly refurbished windows of the £16m Willesden Sports Centre, on Donnington Road, NW10 ? Apart from being verbally abused, the 8 year old used a typical yob street culture language, "Mind your own F***ing business blood, I'm not scared of your dog, I'll shoot it" and then he proceeded to give me a hand signal depicting a gun. (two fingers and thumb pulling trigger). Terrifying, disturbing and shocking.

The government, our MP's, Cllr's, Community groups, teachers, parents, guardians, foster parents etc etc must insist every school in the Country, have as part of their educational curriculum, a 1 - 2 hour lesson on "How you make a difference to your community". This means STOP talking the street language, teaching them that the pen is mighter than the sword, how it is much cooler to walk away, guns and knives are not the answer, how this ruins lives, they must be taught anger management, - role play in in classes, teaching them how to defuse aggressive behaviour in the playground and elsewhere, how when confronted by a disgrunted once friend how they can turn it around. All of this has to be done everyday in our classrooms up and down the country from the age of 5, so by the time they reach 15, these children will have values, morals, humanity, decency, learn to be decent good citizens instilled in their blood, the only blood we want to read about - the right kind of blood !

Rocky Fernandez
Kensal Green, London

[Independent Parent]

Where did I go wrong ..."not a graduate immigrant Mother" works 40 hours a week,only parent of a state educated 16 year old who has just gained 5A*s'3A's & 2B's in Mock GCSE's. We live in the crime ridden borough of Camden without a family support network or religous beliefs. Thankfully we have become immune to the venom of the those who exalt in pleasure whilst demonising "single parents",We pity them and their limitations. Strength and goodwill to all single parents doing a great job out there against the odds.

[adam]

PCJ - I don't get your point. Looking around, what's clearest is how similar we all are, it seems to me. Also, it seems to me to be so completely obvious that the government can't expect to change human nature that I have pretty much no idea what you are trying to get at. Even this diversity which you appear to be claiming is the result of differences in human nature (I don't agree with you on that, but let it slide for a moment) doesn't look to have been imposed as a deliberate effort by government.

I didn't say that the behaviour that we see is caused by poor education, if you re-read (or just read) what I said. I said that conservative philosophy about crime and social security, for example, is predicated on a belief that people have the necessary tools to make of themselves what they wish and that that clearly isn't very true when a crappy education is all they have offered them, when they are kids and not in control of their environment.

I am afraid that I'm not going to debate your anecdotal wisdom, except to say that you appear to know less about the way that the education system works than your certainty would suggest (and believe me, I am no defender of the way that the British state education system works as a whole).

Independent Parent: my congratulations on a job well done.

[Taxpayer]

PCJ,
You are absolutely right!!!
May I remind you that we have birth control these days, so to all those who don't feel capable or ready to raise children in an adequate way, the pill/the condom please! Raising your children is your own responsbility, not the state's or the communities!!! Ib fact, generous family support benefits should be stopped becasue they provide the wrong incentive.

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Daniel

You exaggerate the facts from fiction by assumption. You scare me

[nick]

If parents don't have manners, then how do you expect the children to behave?

Same sort of lack of respect and courtesy occurs in OZ.