The latest poll - amusement is as far as it goes

What should one make of the Guardian poll this morning? Here's one observation.

Notice how the Liberal's poll rating bounces about. Since there has been almost no publicity about the Liberals in the last month, isn't it unlikely that 17 per cent of their vote would have defected since the last time the voting intention question was asked by the same polling company?

Polls fluctuate from month to month. It is dangerous to give too much attention to a single month's figures.

They do provide amusement, I admit. I enjoyed a posting on ConservativeHome about  "David Cameron's modest opinion poll lead" being followed immediately by excited news of the new poll.

But amusement is as far as it goes.

Comments

[GlassHouse]

It's the way it has been reported that is key.

Two high profile anti-Brown articles in a week, today's leader article, today's front page splash, the fact that this poll was timed for release on Brown's birthday - it's can't be coincidental.

[adam]

Just wait until the excitement of the 'Judging a beauty contest in a leper colony' Labour leadership race hots up. That will be polltastic.

[Warren]

The Tories poll leads are pretty consistent, but not quite large enough to guarantee a majority. Is there a point where a Tory government starts to look likely, at which the coalition which backed Labour comes back together to prevent that happening, or has the fear of a Conservative administration now sufficiently diminished/been outweighed by a dislike of the current Labour one that that will not happen?

[adam]

Warren: I reckon that Labour shouldn't rely on it. The Republicans over here relied too much on fear of the words 'Speaker Pelosi' and discovered rather too late that no one really cared. It's hardly as if it's the same Tory party as in the early 90s anyhow, any more than Blair was leading the same party as Michael Foot.