Hillary: vulnerable in the primaries, strong in the general?

I have never accepted the traditional argument that Hillary Clinton was bound to win her party's nomination, but could not win the Presidency. My view has always been that she would struggle to be nominated but stood a good chance of winning.

Now my view is gaining adherents, with interesting consequences for the whole race.

Here's Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard:

Obama is closer to Clinton. He's less behind Clinton than McCain is behind Giuliani.

Hillary Clinton, prohibitive frontrunner, she swamps every else -- she's only 10 points ahead of Barack Obama, and she's only at 34 percent herself, which means that, you know, two-thirds of the electorate, the Democratic primary electorate, is available for Obama or conceivably for Edwards or others.

So I think she is turning out to be a weaker frontrunner than people thought.

If Hillary was bound to win but easy to fight it gave the Republicans freedom to please themselves, choosing a candidate that the base liked. They could reject Rudy and McCain in favour of a more conventional conservative.

Now, however, there is an overall Democrat victory (under Clinton or Obama) to worry about. This will provide a strong boost to the more moderate GOP candidates.

How good is Obama? This good:

Comments

[pregethwr]

That is good.

[Scary]

I think it's bizarre that we have two Democrats campaigning on their physical attributes (being black and being female) when there's already a black female as Secretary of State and one who would probably wipe the floor with either of them on intelligence.

I think that most people miss the point, when they only gleam the surface by focusing on the messenger, and not really listening to the message.

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Daniel Finkelstein
I am terribly sorry to disappoint you this time. You have written a good article about the presidency of Hillary but then the video that comes in between I cannot open. So what is happening back stage? may I know.
I like Hillary. She has the charms, she has the money, and she has a loving husband that most men these days do not have or crave.
I see no reason for your liking or disliking her.
Please remove the video then we talk. Thank you From Tanzania the video is terribly difficult to open, don’t know why may be it s the band with or the Iraq war.
Thank you.

Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD NOT MULLAH FROM IRAN
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania

[oldasiahand]

Curious where you get your numbers from. The polls seem all over the lot but Clinton looks very comforatbly ahead on the political betting sites. And the Democratic contest is for the presidency. I can see no way a Republican can win next year although, I suppose, we should remember Harold Wilson dictum about a fortnight being an age in politics. But the Augean stables need cleaning in both Washington and London.

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

Oldasiahand
I am the new Tanzania head that is why I want to know what is exactly happening behind the TV. Daniel Finkelstein I like you but please take us talk about Hillary only. We are then friend. No one else.

[Barth D.]

Very good indeed. I like this guy more every day. Refreshing is what it is.

[Ilya Saani]

Condi is impressive. Pregethrw, but man, she looks tired! She has aged a lot running around the planet trying to do damage control for the sophomoric George W. She needs at least a term to rest until she can stand for the top job, and in the meantime, the world (including many americans) is mad at Republicans. Let her relax for a term or two. We would all be happy to see her in the oval office, but not until she gets some frikkin' sleep!!!

[Ilya Saani]

Condi is impressive. Pregethrw, but man, she looks tired! She has aged a lot running around the planet trying to do damage control for the sophomoric George W. She needs at least a term to rest until she can stand for the top job, and in the meantime, the world (including many americans) is mad at Republicans. Let her relax for a term or two. We would all be happy to see her in the oval office, but not until she gets some frikkin' sleep!!!

[Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD]

oldasiahand is right every time he swoons like ILYA
We are talking of two different “To be presidents" and there comes Condi Rice. Let her travel to Palestine where she is needed. The USA has enough guys like Cheney who wants to invest in UAE, the whole sum, horses the wagons and the houses and the swimming pool. Why? Hillary is coming back.