The Top 3 political mistakes of Gordon Brown's budget

The first take on the budget was this - forget the economics, the politics was brilliant. Wasn't the 2p coup brilliant! Did you see the look on David Cameron’s face?

My take now? Economically not half bad, politically cretinous.

Here are 3 reasons why:

1. The 2p "coup" error: This was a reforming budget, albeit that two of the best reforming bits involved reversing his own policies - he abolished his own gimmicky 10p starting rate and put spending back on a sustainable path. Presented as such it might have impressed. But Brown was seduced by the political theatre of separating his 2p announcement from the reforms that paid for it and pulling it out of the hat at the last minute.

He got a big cheer on the day, but only by giving the impression that this was a tax-cutting budget, which a few minutes thought would reveal that it wasn't. By the time the Treasury team began to sell the budget as a revenue-neutral reforming budget, this line seemed like a guilty admission.

2. The Message Mistake: Gordon Brown wants to be seen as upright, substantial, rigorous and honest, a contrast to Cameron's spin. The public do not believe politicians and are, rightly, suspicious of Budget announcements.

So what do you do? You present your Budget with painful honesty, showing clearly where the money comes from and where it goes to. Under no circumstances do you leave yourself open to the charge of secretive stealthiness. But Brown seemed more interested in achieving "Gord Bless Him" headlines than in winning political support. This is a political error made by people who mistake Westminster opinion for everyone else's.

3. The Trapping Tories fallacy: The Brown team is obsessed with putting the Tories in a difficult position. On the night of the Budget, the Chancellor rang round senior journalists in an attempt to convince them that having put spending on a new path and reformed tax as he had, he had neutralised Cameron.

This wrapped together two errors. The first is that he is wasting his time trying to define or trap the Conservatives. What he says or does to the Tories has a limited impact on them. He should concentrate on his own image. The second error is that he is fighting the old Tories when things have moved on.

George Osborne and David Cameron have noted that they have lost the old tax and spend argument in three elections. The new Budget allows them simply to match Brown taking a losing issue for them out of the game.

Gordon Brown thinks he is a political genius. When he sat down the first inclination of many was to concur with this judgment. Sad really.

Comments

[Spartacus]

"The Treasury documents furnished us with examples of families which gain from the changes. But they could not - even when pushed - furnish us with an example of any family at all who loses. Even though their own analysis shows there are some. This could not be said to be unspun clarity of exposition in describing the effects of what was being proposed."

From http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/evandavis/2007/03/was_it_a_con.html

[Firozali A. Mulla MBA PhD]

The Top 3 political mistakes of Gordon Brown's budget
Daniel you no like Brown. Yes? No?
No (Number) 1 He is holding the Red case that was from years in his house where the cat slept. I mean this. What surprises me is why he has to show this case to us every year. Does he not have any other colure or is he trying to scare us by the BULL colour. That will not work. Did you see the look on David Cameron’s face? …Yep. The way I read faces and palmistry and astrology, he is laughing at us saying “Guys you are nuts if you think that I have bananas in the case. There are the four wheelers who will sell their fast and I had a good shave today, used the Old Spice in fact very old… The 2p "coup" error: Remember this was in 1933. The money loses value very fast. I used to eat fish and chips in UK, Bletchley for 50p now you must be coughing up a lot. See.. This is 2007… The Message Mistake: Gordon Brown wants to be seen, he is at his home with his wife honest and trust worthy. He even brings the paper from the outside in the snow..I think you do not like him? Yes? No?.. The Trapping Tories fallacy: The Brown team is obsessed.. Every one has obsessions. I have the after shave lotion and Deo for the under the arms. You know you; I mean I smell in sweat bad.. This is bad for public image if there is. Brown has obsessions like the USA counter part Boxing is another hobby and running from the tiger sin the zoo is natural with all of us.
Number 2 He looks okay but then looks are deceiving many.

[Neil Murphy]

All this is interesting and true, but Brown like everyone else assumes that its impact in Westminster is the same as its impact in the country amongst the electorate. Brown has created a budget that gives the impression to us non-Westminster types as deceitful, it just adds to Labour's sleazy image. Brown had a chance to say ' things will be different now' but he has proven he was genuinely part of Blair's project and he is no more honest. No wonder his poll ratings fell so sharply. He might be able to recover, but it will now be a long hard struggle. This was not a budget for s snap election as some have claimed, but a budget for s snap defeat if he tried. His biggest saving now will be mistrust of the Tories and doubts about DC.