Sarkozy's lock is one Bayrou's supporters won't break

There’s a going to be a lot of chatter about the centrist François Bayrou being the kingmaker in France’s Presidential run off. Poppycock.

Yes, Bayrou’s 18% share of the vote make his voters a peculiarly valuable commodity in this election. In his latest dispatch from Paris, Charles Bremner says:

The pollsters disagree over the key question: which way the voters of François Bayrou, the centrist with 18 percent, will swing in the run-off. Everything will hinge on the Sarko fear factor and Royal's credibility. Bayrou will give some guidance to his seven million supporters on Wednesday but he is unlikely to back either Ségo or Sarko. The two big camps are publicly ruling out any pacts but they are privately wooing Bayrou hard

But unless the Bayrou supporters head into Royal’s camp en masse, it would seem that Sarkozy has a lock on this election. Have a gander at this table of nerdish delight I’ve created for you:

Candidates on the left:               Candidates on the right:

Royal: 25.84%                              Sarkozy: 31.11%
Besancenot: 4.11%                       Le Pen: 10.51%
Buffet: 1.94%                               Villiers: 2.24%
Voynet: 1.57%                              Nihous: 1.15%
Laguiller: 1.34%
Bove: 1.32%
Schivardi: 0.34%

Total: 36.46%                              Total: 45.01%

This is a rough and ready way of looking at the results, but nonetheless the Right have a lead over the Left of more than 8.5%. Sunday’s vote suggests a crucial shift to the Right in the minds of French voters. To think otherwise, as this piece by Philippe Marliere, a senior lecturer in French politics at University College London does, is wishful thinking.

Murad Ahmed