Advice for Republicans: You need to change. Now

Early in 1995 my friend Jim Pinkerton, formerly the research point man for Republican strategist Lee Atwater, visited London at my invitation. I took him round to meet some of my friends in the Cabinet and in senior Downing Street roles. And when the meetings were done with we sat down to discuss Conservative prospects.

What would you do if you lost, he asked me. I rattled off a list of big changes that would need to be made. And will you lose, Jim inquired. Oh yes, I answered, no doubt about it. Then what are you waiting for, he replied.

This is basically the same point that David Brooks makes in his latest New York Times column (behind a subscriber wall, I regret to say). The GOP he says:

Are like people quietly marching to their doom

He notes that structural barriers to reform (the plethora of Republican interest groups), the stifling nature of group loyalty and too much respect for the past (notably the ghost of Ronald Reagan) are forcing Republican candidates to adopt traditional positions at the expense of their electability.

So I hope my Republican friends will tolerate the following observations from my experience as a British Conservative political adviser:

• It won't get better. It will get worse. And it will keep getting worse until you do something.
• You have to be very honest with yourself about what voters think. It may not be the same as what you think. Confusing these two things is very easy. Untangling them is vital.
• Nothing should be unthinkable. Everyone makes compromises. Failing to compromise with reality is not an option.
• Core voters will forgive a winner a great deal.

Then ask yourself Pinkerton's questions - what will you do if you keep losing? And what are you waiting for?

Comments

[R.B. Glennie]

Holy moly Daniel,

the Republicans have lost ONE election and you're assigning them to the dustbin of history?

I think that's a little premature, don't you?

[TDE]

I remember 1995 well, the overwhelming feeling of certain defeat for the Tories. Now, living in the US it is all very familiar. If they do not correct quickly, the Republicans will suffer a seriously embarrassing defeat. I happen to hope they will.

[Chris]

Yeah. The GOP needs big changes. Like to stop losing in Iraq. Gee, why didn't I think of that?

[JohnP]

The fact that Giuliani is even in this, let alone leading, is proof that Republicans do get this.

[mxh]

Daniel, I think Pinkerton has forgotten his own wisdom. A quote from a recent syndicated column by the man: "So here's a question: If Bush is falling apart so dramatically that he is in danger of simply vanishing, how come he's hanging in there in the polls?" http://www.newsday.com/news/columnists/ny-oppin175174526apr17,0,7241215.column

Pinkerton then goes on to argue that because Bush has remained at around 35% in the polls for the past year (a historically abysmal run that would make Nixon weep), he's really not that unpopular at all. Why, over a third of the country doesn't think that he's the worst President in history! The rest of the article consists of desparate up is downism that is either funny or sad, depending on one's politics. Your Republican friend need an intervention.

[Rob Gladstone]

Perhaps your thoughts are precisely why the Tories have been in the wildnerness for so long. You're so busy trying to figure out what the voters want you to say, you've lost all idea of what you stand for.

Repubican troubles today come from one thing. War fatigue. GOP losses have no comparison to Tory loss of power and your attempt to advise Republicans seems quite misplaced.

In case you haven't noticed, you're still out of power. You lost power after your leader John Major attempted to veer away from Margaret Thatcher's legacy and allowed Tony Blair to come in and co-opt it. Until you get it back, you're not really in a position to give anyone advice.

Republicans have gone down for consistently standing up for our beliefs. Tories went down for forgetting theirs.

Thanks for trying, though.

[KellyJ]

The flaw in your thinking is that the current Republicans in Office are losing because they are not Conservatives. This last election was not a mandate or permission slip for the Democrats/Liberals (despite what they say on the news). It was the Conservatives being fed-up with the free-spending, government building, Open borders, apeasement towards the Dems attitudes of the Bush Admin and Congress that kept them away from the polls. Note that many of the Democrats who won in this last election are the so-called "Blue-Dog Democrats"...Conservatives. They ran on a pro-2nd Ammendment, border security, lower taxes platform and cleaned up.
The Republicans can win, but not by compromising there core conservative values. But by embracing them as Ronald Reagan did. By standing up for them and not being afraid the Dems won't "like you" if you tell them they are wrong.
If the republicans do NOT return to their roots of true Conservative values, then they will lose...and deservedly so.

[Dennis]

Is it just me, or did this article say nothing at all? The author insists on some kind of change but nothing is suggested. Is there some secret understood change of which only the British are aware?

[Prospero]

I believe that it is time for us Republicans to escape the tyranny of the Religious Right.

It most certainly is possible to be Republican and not be Socially Conservative. I am conservative in many ways:
- Assisting Free Market enterprise
- Aggressive enforcement of law and order
- Fiscal responsibility of the government
- Aggressive national defense
- Even more aggressive diplomacy
- The ability to compromise with those whose help we need to defend ourselves in the murderous jihadist wars

But I am not on board with those who try to impose their morality on the nation, and this includes absolute opposition to abortion, and homophobic persection of homosexuals. I find these attitudes and policies to be abhorent.

I think Rudy Giuliani might best represent my views for the upcoming election, and sincerely hope that the Religious Right will prove ineffectual in stopping him.

[Matthew]

Sir,

With all due respect, you have got to be joking. The Republican Party has lost three presidential elections in the last forty years, and one congressional election in the last 12. Now all of a sudden, we have to change or risk extinction? I would much prefer the position of the GOP to the Tory party as it stands today, led by a man with not a shred of principle or dignity to his person.

[The Hairy Beast]

Ok but change what to where? A few specifics would help, don't you think?

[AxelDC]

It seems obvious what is holding the Republicans back: they seem to think that their old tricks will work. They think branding Democrats as unpatriotic will win votes, and playing up cultural war issues will bring in just enough voters to win.

Most of them write off 2006 as an anomaly. If Allen hadn't said that dumb thing, they would still have the Senate. Mark Foley doomed them in the House. The count of Pelossi and Reid imploding and a big return to power in 2008.

The bottom line: if they don't clean up Iraq in the next year, they lose it all. They have 22 Senate seats to defend, and they lost 6 of 13 last year. A similar result in 2008 would give Democrats over 60 Senators. They could lose 11 more House seats. More importantly, the White House would fall to Obama or Clinton, who would have a very cooperative Congress.

Bush still gives them an illusion of power. He hasn't got long, and the Republicans need to realize how treacherous relying on his coattails will be.

[John Nowosad]

If Republicans lose in 2008 what will be the consequences of a chameleon like Hillary Clinton or an extremely inexperienced Barack Obama? We CANNOT afford either because those options are a complete disaster as we are currently experiencing with Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid

[Anthracite]

The Tories didn't lose because they stuck to their principles. They lost because they didn't. Same with the Republicans in 2006. The Republicans lost because they acted more like corrupted, entrenched incumbents than like principled conservatives. The answer is not to simply run to the head of the parade, but to run on what true conservatives really believe in --- fiscal responsibility, small government and the return of responsible liberty.

[Fred B., Virginia, USA]

The GOP should take advice from the Tories??? When was the last time the Tories have won an election, especially considering that they have done as David Brooks suggests for the GOP and 'moderated' their position? The GOP lost its way by supporting bigger gov't and the incompetence that comes along with it. How does further alienating the base of a party (by rejecting traditional values and embracing failing expensive big gov't programs) result in success at the polls? A party needs a foundation to build upon. In 2006, the GOP had to fight to get its base out to the polls. A party that has to do this cannot reach out to new voters.

[ken]

Yes, we see why the Tories have fallen so far from the days of Margaret Thatcher. The Tory plan: Become the left. Adopt a "win elections at any cost" creed. It's not about ideas, it's about power. Er, if it's all right with you, this Republican will take a pass on yet another load of EuroTrash wisdom.

[adam]

I remember saying to friends in 2004 that winning the election (the Presidential election, in this case) could be as bad for Republicans as winning in 1992 was for the Tories. One friend and I, both conservatives, were hoping for a Bush defeat to save the GOP from themselves, fearing that winning would cause bigger problems in the future.

I think that the GOP have a decent chance of winning the Presidency, which isn't so much a verdict on a party as on the candidate, but it seems possible to me that life in Congress might continue to be hard for the Republicans. Their only consolation will be to know that they did it to themselves.

[Jim]

I suppose if being elected is the sole objective, then the advice is correct. But for some a principle trumps being in office.

[John Samford]

I disagree in part. At least you recognize that the Republicans lost the election of '06, the Democrats didn't win it. There is a difference.
The democrats have completely misjudged the results of the '06 election. The far left is claiming it was an anti-war vote. No evidence to support that claim, but when your political platform is based on wishful thinking, any positive results are colored by that thinking.
The '06 election was about the 'culture of corruption' and the MSM collaborating with the democrats to portray the republicans as more corrupt then the democrats. That is a self solving problem for the republicans, since the more crooked republicans will be ran out of office, leaving the democrats as the party of corruption in the '08 election. Especially since the front runners of the democratic party have some very shady deals in their closet, waiting for the election to heat up.
The other problem the democrats have is their selling the battle of Iraq as a 'war'. It is NOT a war and withdrawal from Iraq WILL NOT end the 'war' (yes, snear quotes).
Iraq is an essential part of the war on terror ( a real bad title, but one we are stuck with. Almost as bad as 'cold war').
All it takes is the slightest bit of logic to undermine the democratic position on the battle of Iraq.
For example; The democrats claim regime change in Iraq has nothing to do with the WoT, since there is no evidence Saddam provided direct support for the terrorists that planned and carried out the WTC attack. Neither did the Taliban. Yet the democrats supported the battle of Afghanistan. Illogical.
The fact is that the battle of Iraq has been won. The MSM, with it's fixation on bodies, hasn't realized that yet. The battle of Iraq is about regime change and nation building. We DON'T need a perfect government in Iraq, just one that isn't a dictatorship.
No Government is perfect, so as long as the Iraqi's have one they can work with, we have won. The numbers of dead doesn't matter. If death was the main factor, then the Sudan would be the main battlefield of the WoT.

[John Camino]

It is pandering to liberal interests that has brought Republicans to the current sorry state of affairs. The party needs to return to its core values if it is to regain congress and hold the White House. Values such as limited government, individual rights, personal responsibility, and the vigorous pursuit of American interests. It is time to fight for what is right, not to accept the lesser America that the Democrats promise.

[ortega]

There is nothing like writing about the USA to get plenty of commets!

[BcdErick]

This essay is childish. I'm old enough to remember the attitude of the Republican establishment towards Ronald Reagan in 1980. It was practically unaminous. His nomination was a disaster and he would either be slaughtered by Carter or be unable to govern. This was era when all the "experts" knew the presidency was too big for one man. Of course as usual, and like clockwork, as events passed it became hilariously clear that the experts hadn't a clue what they were talking about and in general knew less about the opinions of the electorate than my pet beagle. Such is the case here. History doomed to repeat itself? You bet.

[jagrmeister]

I agree about the loyalty test. I was on Free Republic for 5 years, and I got bumped for critiquing the war and saying that condemning all Islam or all arabs was wrongheaded. My arguments may have been incorrect, but you should still be able to articulate them. Nonetheless, that was reason for my termination.

We cannot advance as a party unless we are freely able to have an open exchange of opinions about issues and leaders.

[flores de la hoz]

The future of the GOP depends on a coalition of conservative Christians, Wall Street global economy realist and Hispanic American voters. GOP victory in 2008 is possible provided the GOP addresses the undocumented workers crisis which is driven by the global economy. North American integration is critical to US geo-political interest in the fast unfolding multi-polar world. China will be our economic equal in 15 - 20 years. China has 1.2B people while all of North America has less than 500MM. Think market size.

A McCain - Jeb Bush ticket can carry most of the key Hispanic American states (CA, AZ, NM, NV, CO, TX, FL) provided there is some workable quest workers program in place that ceases the current demonization of defenseless workers.

[Joe]

No one has failed America more than Republicans and conservatives than promoting Bushes war. American is realizing this, however painful it is to accept their own reactionary support for the war. The Iraq war was an unnecessary war of choice.

Furthermore, most American's now get that Republicans give us bigger government than Dems with little effectiveness or payback to their interests. Don't give me spin otherwise, look at actual history. That's reality and that's why Republicans can only win with divisiveness, hate and fear. Without these tools, they'd have taken the way of the Tories long ago.