Sensational results for the Tories. Will the BBC say so?

The BBC and other broadcasters face a challenge. All day they have been running the idea that these are good but not sensational results for the Conservatives. Now it is quite clear that this is wrong. The results have been sensational. Will they change their analysis?

This morning, it seemed as if the Tories would make between 500 and 600 gains. A moment ago they passed the 800 mark, heading to above 850.

Here is what local government expert Michael Thrasher had to say earlier this week:

The real significance of these local elections may not be Labour losses as much as how the spoils are divided among the main opposition parties. 

The Conservatives have been leading the field in opinion polls and local by-elections alike for some time. But (and it’s a big but) the party continually falls short of the critical 40% mark – the minimum national vote share likely to be needed to win an overall majority in the House of Commons. These contests offer David Cameron the chance to show that he can lead a Tory fight back that has real and enduring substance. 

For that to happen to the party must register in excess of 600 net seat gains and push the total number of councils it controls up from 169 towards the 200 mark.  The shire districts are likely to be the Conservatives’s most fertile territory, but the advance will need to be broad. In Braintree, Dartford and Rugby a modest swing from Labour is required. By contrast the Liberal Democrats are the obstacle to be overcome in Harrogate, Mid Suffolk and Shepway. 

As I posted earlier, I believe the national opinion polls and think they provide a better guide to national opinion than do local election results. But judged on its own terms you cannot say anything other than that this has been a very good Conservative result.

So I share Iain Dale's frustration.