What does Brown think about Sarkozy?

The opinion polls are unambiguous. Every one since the first round points to a Sarko victory this weekend. Yes, they are close. But if you take them together as a single sample a statistician would tell you that the chances that Ségo is in fact ahead at the moment is, to all intents and purposes, zero.

There has been a great deal of comment about Mr Blair's attitude to M. Sarkozy. But that isn't what matters, of course. What matters is Gordon Brown's attitude to him. And as with most things, we don't really know what that is.

Martin Kettle wrote rather well last week about Brown's ambivalence:

He knows Sarkozy from their days as fellow finance ministers. The Browns and Sarkozys have dined à quatre. Most importantly of all, Brown is comfortable with Sarkozy's deregulatory economic instincts and with his openness to America. And yet Brown hesitates. When Sarkozy launched his election campaign in London, Blair met him while Brown made his excuses. Brown has put out feelers towards the Royal camp too, which Blair has not.

The columnist ascribes this to indecision about the direction of his foreign policy. I found that quite convincing. But whatever the reason, Brown is right to be cautious about Sarkozy.

Sarko's desire to have a strong single European policy on immigration, for instance, and a European treaty with no referendum could cause Brown problems on the left and the right simultaneously.

But I was impressed at the news about the dinner à quatre. Getting Mr Sarkozy to have dinner with Mrs Sarkozy is quite an accomplishment.