How Karl Rove might help Hillary win the White House
A fascinating piece in the LA Times speculates on the reasons why Karl Rove has been attacking Hillary Clinton.
In a nutshell, it suggests that Rove has identified her as the weaker nominee and is building her up, egging Dems on to defend her as the man their enemy Rove fears.
Let's say this is true - the simpler explanation is that Rove was saying what he thinks - will it work?
A common mistake made by political strategists is to believe that tactics that worked when they were doing well will work equally well when things are going badly.
So, for instance, during the 2005 election Tony Blair repeated his previously successful tour of TV sofas, getting round the journos and going straight to the people.
But it started to go badly wrong. People on talk shows started shouting at the Labour leader. Some journalists, stuck on the old idea that Blair was surrounded by brilliant advisers, interpreted even this shouting as a deliberate stroke of genius - the tour was organised to get all the insults over with.
I am pretty sure this interpretation was wrong. The tour was a mistake - simply a failure to appreciate how far Mr Blair's stock had fallen since the last time he did it.
Now, Mr Rove.
If Mr Rove is boosting Hillary in this roundabout way, he's doing it because he tried something similar to dupe the Dems into choosing John Kerry in 2004. The weaker candidate then lost. In other words, the Dems rallied against Rove and the electorate didn't.
I think that in so far as Mr Rove succeeds this time in influencing the Dems choice it won't work as in 2004.
The Dems may rally against Rove as they did in 2004. But so, this time, may the voters. Voters may react like Dem activists, concluding that there must be something good about a woman that Karl Rove dislikes so much. The master strategist may just end up helping Hillary become President.
Maybe he wants her to win?!
Posted by: A J Arnolds | 20 Aug 2007 23:13:05
Let the swiftboating begin.
Posted by: LANCE | 21 Aug 2007 19:47:09
Daniel really has it right.Most of America is thoroughly, completely, utterly tired of the Republicans.
I predict America will vote overwhelmingly Democratic in the next national election.
Signed, an old observer (60?) of American politics!
P.S. It's great to have a fourm in England. I've been to your country twice. First time 1964 second time 1978. Bon chance!
Posted by: lawrence Coleman | 22 Aug 2007 00:04:40
Democrats have eroded to the point of near equilibrium as far as party association.
About 55 million are registered Republicans. About 72 million are registered Democrats.
About 42 million are Independents. About 100 million don't even vote.
Anyone who pretends to know where the '08 election will end up is nuts.
Posted by: Dan | 22 Aug 2007 17:35:51