The victory the crossed the Atlantic

I've long argued that anyone wanting to understand the Blair years, indeed anyone wanting to understand political strategy full stop, should read Dick Morris's book Behind the Oval Office, the history of his years as adviser to Bill Clinton. (I particularly recommend the edition with the original memos, but that's not essential).

But this morning Gavin Esler's excellent BBC radio show, The Clinton Years, (which you can find and listen to here) made me realise that even so, I had underestimated the importance of the Clinton-Morris relationship to UK politics.

The documentary reprised the battle between Newt Gingrich's "Contract With America" and Morris's triangulation, culminating in the victory for Morris and Clinton.

It reminded me that it wasn't just the impact of the Morris-Clinton strategy on Brown and Blair that was important. It was also the intensely strong impact of Gingrich's victory on the Conservative Party.

Just at the moment when the Republican's swept the board with a populist small government, right-wing campaign, Major's Conservative Party was floundering, trailing very badly indeed. The lesson seemed obvious. Become more rigorous and more radical, make clear small government promises and you can defeat a third-way politician like Clinton. The Right was convinced. And this led, in time to the Redwood leadership challenge.

But Clinton did not lie down under his 1994 defeat. He moved to the centre and, with Morris, gave real content to his Third Way rhetoric. Within a year he had turned the tables on Gingrich and shown the superiority, in strategic political terms, of his position.

Bush won in 2000 by using a similar triangulation technique.

The Conservative Party continued along the Contract line for years and much of the Right still hankers after it. And Gordon Brown appears to have decided that he can't abandon Blairite triangulation even though many of his supporters wish him to.

The Contract v Dick Morris really was one the defining fights of the era.

Comments

[Guido Fawkes]

A political strategy defeated political principles. Not the ideal result.

[Nick]

I can't find the programme on the listen again page. Are you sure it's there?

[TMJ Black]

Interesting analysis- but I hope the Clinton analogy goes no further. The idea of Cherie as PM is horrific. BTW I assume that Blairs job as quartet poodle is just to keep his political hand in until the E.U. sees the light and anoints him as their President. Not in my name!