Is Gordon Brown crazy enough to call it?

Are they really mad enough to call an election now? Yes, it seems they really might be.

No decision yet, but I am told that those who want Gordon Brown to call an election, some of his closest advisers, are still urging him to go for it. They say his poll numbers are holding up well and the Tory conference bounce was only to be expected.

This is one of the worst examples I've ever seen of the impact of cognitive dissonance.

In simple terms cognitive dissonance is this:

The filtering of information that conflicts with what you already believe, in an effort to ignore that information and reinforce your beliefs

Having run around for a week telling friends they are in favour of an election and speaking out in meetings for it they are incapable of changing their minds despite:

1. The fact that the national polls are now very close and incredibly unstable. What matters is not just the mean but fluctuations from it.

2. The fact that, I understand, Labour's own research in the marginals has shown the inheritance tax promise has changed the game.

3. The obvious shift in press sentiment.

Their main argument, extraordinarily but revealingly, against calling off the whole thing is that it will make them look silly. This itself is silly. The public impact of calling it off has been made vastly worse by their idiotic decision to talk up an election they should have kept secret. But it still isn't that great.

We are told constantly that Gordon Brown will be a bottler if he pulls out now. Wrong. My view of his courage will be enhanced. It means he is able to face down the people around him who are railroading him towards a highly risky and unnecessary decision just to ensure that they don't look/feel bad.

And once he has shown this courage he should buy himself a Christmas present - some new advisers.

He should go into the section of the shop that sells advisers who keep their mouth shut, and don't back him into a corner by talking about their internal decision making process to journalists.

UPDATE: Turns out Ben Brogan, always a compelling read, thinks exactly the same as I do.

Comments

[David Moss]

Funny you should say that. I just happened to have this on the stocks. It was meant for Simon Jenkis but you can have it.

As you (Simon Jenkins) have argued cogently in another place, based on party subscriptions, the thread connecting us with our politicians is thin, fraying fast and in danger of snapping altogether. Your prescription -- localism -- must be right.

Labour and the Conservatives both talk about localism. But this is a practical matter (phenomenal) and not a matter of pure theory (noumenal). And as my friend Aristotle said in his best-seller, Nicomachean Ethics, the conclusion of a practical syllogism is an action. Not a theorem. An action.

So let's see the Conservatives plan in detail how the centre will give up a lot of power which people will then be expected to exercise locally. And if they exercise it badly, it will be their fault, not the fault of central government, with whom, under those circumstances, it will then have nothing to do.

Labour had a double digit lead a week ago and now they're roughly level pegging -- the polls are extraordinarily volatile. That suggests not that people's opinions are extraordinarily volatile but that the polls are measuring two different things.

Labour have a strong lead when it comes to presentation. They talk a good game, come over as competent and experienced and they inspire confidence.

Then people remember their awful policies and their abysmal managerial failures. There is nothing in fact to support that confidence-inspiring air of dependability.

They have tried to politicise the civil service. They have jeered at judges for dispensing the laws Labour themselves have enacted. They have neutered both houses of parliament and replaced them with a sofa. They have massively increased surveillance through CCTV cameras and intrusive inspections for Council Tax and Criminal Records Bureau investigations for more and more jobs and they are set to introduce ID cards into the UK in peacetime. Whatever they are, these are not the policies of a party of the centre. Labour do not occupy the middle ground.

And that's just home affairs. You (Simon Jenkins) have yourself pointed out that Labour's economic policies are Thatcherite Plus. How do they manage to continue to get themselves described by otherwise sensible commentators as the party of the centre? What are Labour voters doing, voting for them? How do Labour MPs go through the same lobby?

Labour's management skills are lamentable. The pointless split of the Home Office has revealed the failure of the National Offender Management Scheme -- £2.6bn down the drain. The computerisation of the NHS has failed -- £12.4bn down the drain. Bank regulation? Northern Rock down the drain. Prisons? Forgot to build them. Wars? Forgot to provide the forces with the equipment they need. Schools have been given more money -- standards have gone down and now we are to have an independent curriculum authority. About time, too. How about a series of local curriculum authorities? The only way there will be a housing shortage, which Labour would fail to correct, would be if they pulled down all the empty houses we already have, as you (Simon Jenkins) have yourself pointed out. What is our transport policy in the UK at the moment?

What should the Conservatives do in the face of Labour's extremist policies and managerial incapacity? Just keep pointing it out. And choose the high ground on specific matters. Again borrowing from you (Simon Jenkins), why don't the Conservatives demand that the SFO investigation into BAe and Al Yamamah be re-opened? A simple act which would at the same time show the Conservatives to be more interested in the law being upheld than in protecting big business and show Labour to be sleazy.

Mr Cameron is accused thoughtlessly of being a slick PR man. He is clearly nothing of the sort. The 16 May debacle over grammar schools was PR of the grossest incompetence imaginable. It is hard to draw any comfort from 16 May. But not impossible.

In the first place, it suggests that the Conservatives are not Labour. Which is a good thing. Labour would never have made that mistake. Indeed, they capitalised on it. Alistair Darling announced the planned closure of 2,500 post offices under cover of all the noise and no-one had the energy at the time to complain. All attention had been drawn to the Conservative education policy.

Second, Mr Cameron was exceptionally impressive in trying to deal with the problem he had created. Talking from a noisy playground to the World At One, facing derision, his arguments were clear and forceful. It was idiotic to get into that situation. But, having got into it, he revealed courage. Compare that with Gordon Brown who famously disappears whenever there is a problem.

It's not ideal. Labour are abysmal. The question is whether there is any alternative. Perhaps Blackpool was a glimmer of hope that there is an alternative.

[Miriam]

The Labour Party has said nothing about there being an election this autumn.

It has been the media saying it all the way. The big news story in the media has been the media speculation. That is all.

[Richard Marriott]

All I can say is "Bravo David Moss" - whoever you are, your comment is compelling.

[Noel Falconer]

When your opponents are working desperately hard and unitedly to push you into an action, it's often a good idea to do the opposite.

[Recusant]

Really Miriam? So I suppose Ed Balls, Deborah Mattinson et al running around telling all and sundry that an election is definitely on the cards is nothing to do with it?

[Miriam]

Recusant, Labour has only commented on the media speculation about an election.

If anyone had said that an election was definitely on the cards, then why would the journalists be asking if there was going to be an election if they already had the answer?

[Guy Atherton]

Miriam - only the PM can announce an election but his advisers and minister have been publicly stating or hinting what they think - such as the comment that "now might bew the best time" etc. So the media isn`t totally to blame.

[Miriam]

Everyone knows that only the PM can announce that there is going to be an election.

If someone made a comment that they had had thoughts on the issue of an election, then it would have warranted a mention as a small news story containing the quote. Just as it would have done at any other time that someone happened to have a thought on a subject.

The media blew up a bit of hysteria for fun, and it is very sad to see that it was the top news story ahead of really important things such as the situation in Burma.

[Sutton, UK]

Nobody has told Brown that if he lives by the Press, he will die by the Press. Have we not had enough evidences of this in past and recent events?
If the house of Labour has gone from an 11 point lead to a wobbly house of cards in a week, they are not fit to run Great Britain. I do not trust them, come what may.

[Dickie in Cornwall]

As a FLOATER & RARE VOTER 'tis my view that BIG Gord might as well have stuck a 12bore double barrel up his >majorityOUT< all along.....POLI's MUST be b a r m y egotists anyway.....vidi BENN @ 82!!