Four reasons Tories shouldn't fear Nick Clegg

On the radio this morning Norman Smith of the BBC said that Nick Clegg was the last person Tories want to see winning the Lib Dem leadership.

And he's probably right. But are Tories correct to take this view? I don't think so.

Here are my four reasons.

First, the fate of the Conservative Party is in its own hands. If it is a moderate, reasonable attractive group ready for Government it will win votes and there is little that any Liberal leader will be able to do about it. So Tories shouldn't care who the Lib Dem leader is, being instead dedicated to making the identity of that leader irrelevant.

Second, the impact of a more attractive Liberal Party is unpredictable. It might, indeed, draw votes from the Conservatives, but it might also act as a place for disillusioned Labour voters to go if they are unwilling to go so far as supporting the Tories. Clegg is clearly the most attractive Lib Dem on offer, but this doesn't just impact on the Conservatives.

Third, the creation of a Lib Dem-Labour axis encouraged tactical voting against Tories. Clegg is against such an axis. He won't want to encourage tactical voting against Tories both because he is temperamentally disinclined to do so and because the atmosphere that creates inside his own party would make a coalition deal even more difficult.

Fourth, and most important, although Tories have very big disagreements with Clegg, he talks openly about the problems of big government, state interference and monopolies in health and education. His election would help to shift the centre of gravity in the political debate towards the freedom loving right. This would be a very big gain indeed.

Here is a Clegg speech delivered earlier this year on the future of politics. It is 25 minutes long, so you probably won't want to watch all of it, but watch the beginning to get a sense of his personal style and the way he frames his argument.

Comments

[Ray]

Gosh, I didn't know Nick Clegg was the SHADOW Home Secretary - he did well there, he's not even a member of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition! We should send David Davis round for a word :)

[David Moss]

I couldn't agree with you more. It doesn't matter to the Conservatives who leads the Liberal Democrats.

And it doesn't matter to Labour either.

Because the starting point for the other parties is that Labour are finished.

Labour are finished. They are utterly isolated and the Liberal Democratic party is the obvious refuge for most of the millions of horrified Labour voters appalled by what Messrs Blair and Brown have done to what should be their party.

Labour are finished and the Lib Dems will have three times as many MPs after the next election, many of them currently sitting for Labour, their campaign will be funded by the unions, and championed by the Mirror and the Guardian, preferably no later than April 2008.

A post-electoral pact between the two is unthinkable and not worth writing about except to make that point.

Labour's home affairs agenda is totalitarian, authoritarian, intrusive, oppressive, repressive, collectivist, ... anything but "centre" or "middle ground". Let the Conservatives continue to make the point, as they have done, that it is they who support freedom and privacy. No ID cards, they're unBritish and any suppliers will have their government contracts ripped up the day after the election.

The Lib Dems have the same policy. So just make sure that it is the Davids, Cameron and Davis, who are heard making the point.

Labour have demonstrated every problem associated with big government. Perhaps, as you suggest, the centre of gravity is shifting. It may be just wishful thinking, as yet, but when it does shift it is obviously the Conservatives and not the Lib Dems who are ready for it.

[MartinK]

The Tories shouldn't worry about this guy. He's about as inspiring as a think tank wonk. You need an edge to be a leader and I can't see it in this video.

[Joel]

I fell asleep

[Anne]

A very English head boy for the Lib Dems combined with the possibility of a Tory victory could have an interesting impact on Scottish politics. I suspect it might work in the SNPs favour, with former Lib Dems switching to the nationalists now that theirs is no longer a Tartan tinged party, and former Labour voters thinking that if there's a Tory government down South they'd be better off out of it.

[Oscar Miller]

I thought this was a very thoughtful intelligent speech that hones in on the real sense of powerlessness and anxiety experienced by a public fed up with the bossy, threatening, authoritarianism of the Labour government. It is obvious Clegg has a great deal more in common with Cameron than he does with Brown. That, as Danny rightly says, is a source of strength for the Conservatives not a threat. It shows a shift in the right direction. If Clegg gets voted leader (and I hope he will) Cameron and Clegg will show up even more how hopelessly out of date, visionless and top heavy a Brown led government is. Labour's days are numbered.

[Jim]

Tories not be afraid of Nick Clegg? I can see the points, but looking at the marginals gives us the counter argument:

Where could the Tories pick up most marginal seats- Lib Dem seats in the South/ West. What about Tory Marginals? An awful lot are against the Lib Dems, so any resurgence or steadying of the Lib Dem vote could derail any Conservative revival.

That's my take on the matter anyway.