Why Brown is not a bottler

Is Brown a bottler?

No. That's quite the wrong word for it. He would have been a bottler if he had looked at the data, concluded he would win but still decided not to go for it. That wasn't, however, what the data told him. The message of the marginals poll ordered up by the News of the World's sharp political team was clear.

So, as first revealed on Comment Central, he decided to call the whole thing off. But that didn't make him a bottler.

He wasn't a bottler in 1994 either, because he would have lost then too. Or throughout the years he stalked Blair, since an assasination attempt would probably have failed.

All three decisions were the right ones.

So if he isn't a bottler, what is he?

First, an obsessive. He tries to plan every last detail. A snap election might have been possible for William Hague, say, or Blair at his more impetuous, but Brown worries away at things. The upside is that he only moves when victory is assured. The downside is that the story gets out, putting him under huge pressure. It's made him look like a serial bottler.

Second, surrounded by unbelievably arrogant advisers and with an arrogant streak himself. They all believed they had far more control over matters than they did. They overestimated the impact their strategic moves - smoking out Tory policies for instance - would have. They boasted of their cleverness. And they pretty much told everyone exactly what they were up to. Fools.

Third, unbelievably political. He is so interested in political strategy it dominates everything. This is already proving a big defect in a Prime Minister.

And finally, what is he? In a lot of trouble.

Let's not forget the main reason why many thought he should go now. The argument was not so much that this was a good time, but that it was the best time.

He has excited expectations of change, but has no plans to deliver it. This will not take long to catch up with him. Therefore this may have been the peak. Being prevented from holding an election at the peak because you fear even then you will lose is a bad blow.

Comments

[oldnemo]

Spot on sir.

The Tories still have a long way to go but there does seem to have been some serious self inflicted damage here both media and electorate wise by Brown.

[bobby boy]

The Tories came across as a bunch of silly public school boys. None of their policies are workable.

[Richard Downing]

The serious fact is that the country, and indeed the world, is facing some very serious problems: Climate Change, China and India the new Superpowers, USA's decline into moral bankruptcy; not to mention the problems of an unaffordable healthcare system, pensions gap, and en economy based on Jam Tomorrow. And the things GB wants to change won't address a single one of them, nor will anything heard from DC (or MC). We are up the creek without a paddle. I, for one, an grateful that I don't have to spoil another ballot.

[Harlan Leyside]

Of course he's a bottler.
That News of the World poll was simply one isolated poll, taken just after the Tory conference when Tory support would be at it's peak. Labour still has a built in electoral advantage due to constituency boundaries, even after the current changes take effect.
The point of an election campaign is to transform bad poll results into better ones.
The battle was there to be won; Brown bottled it.
If you only move when victory is a certainty, you don't need bottle. You need it when faced with a challenge; here, the odds were still in Brown's favour so the greater challenge was for Cameron.

[Rick]

A. Seldon's tome 'Blair' is highly informative as to Brown's character. It confirms that this man DOES back away when challenged; he may be a heavyweight politician but he is a lightweight person. This is an ominous trait for a so-called leader.

[John Grave]

Yes indeed.

I am happy to say that Brown has blown it BIG TIME.

His posing presidential demeanour has shown itself to be insubstantial.. His engineering of events has misfired.

He is never present in a crisis (Unless he engineered the crisis like the sadly inept terrorist incidents in July)

And his honeymoon is over.

The media has turned on him and from now on things will only get worse for him as the chickens come home to roost. (The economy. credit crisis etc.)

[Stephen R]

Danny F still working on the principle that if you throw enough of it against the wall, some of it will stick. The problem is that he doesn't have enough of it so tries to spread it too thinly, and that invariably, most people really do not care and find the machinations of political commentatators transparent, wasteful and very, very, boring.

Everyone knows polls are commissioned by those who want a particular outcome, generally are meaningless, and much like the internet, you can always find that the answer to the question is the one you wanted anyway.

[Adrian Drummond]

An excellent analysis Daniel.

It's just a pity that your view on Dawkins is so wrong.

[Paul Butler]

Brown has proved himself to be mightily untrustworthy, and even willing to use Iraq as a political tool.

His anti Middle Britain policies have been and are being exposed for what they are - a means of centralisation, and cynical redistribution of wealth from those who work or have pensions, to those who live off and rely on the State to continue their sloth or fecundity (in the case of young single unmarried mothers).

The press and more of the voters are not going to forget this episode, despite cynical reassurances from the Labour apparatchiks that the public will soon be thinking about something else and can continue to be hoodwinked.

[Phil Linehan]

7 October 2007

Gordon Brown Labours On

by Phil Linehan

At the Party Conference when P.M. Brown got up to speak
the curiosity of all, whether present or not, was at its peak.
What would he tell us that was new, I asked myself,
what surprises would be pull off the shelf?

When he told us he took the school bus up the hill,
was he comparing it to enduring a dentist’s drill?
Did he think not being chauffeured in a Rolls
would increase his numbers in the polls?

He is proud to be British he kept on saying
a card that he seemed to be overplaying.
That he is a Briton he repeatedly brought to our attention
as almost seventy times did he Britain or British mention.

In British values he kept telling us of his belief
until we prayed to God for some relief.
By the fiftieth time his mantra he was to repeat
this listener began to ask – but where’s the meat?

He kept on and on dipping into his bottomless store of trivia
but by that time we had caught on that he is not Prime Minister of Bolivia.
We watched as he kept tying himself into a knot
as he tried not to acknowledge he is a Scot.

What do they think of that in what was once North Britain
where with being called British they are far from smitten?
The island’s northern inhabitants will react with passion
if Gordon tries to make that designation once more the fashion.

The values issue is hard to explain.
Does he not think values are admired in Spain?
Other people hold values dear, the good Lord knows,
including, I am reliably told, the Eskimos.

Why, if his compatriots on values place such store
must ASBOs* and ABCs** be handed out by the score?
And visitors to town centres after dark see their enjoyment destroyed
as they make every effort puking adolescents to avoid?

It is odd that as the Britain drum he was determined to bang
in what was fast becoming an unending harangue
only once did he mention as he continued to berate
that it is usually preceded by that other word, Great.

People who cleaned up after floods he felt the need to brag
showed the world the British were a credit to the flag.
Does he think where inundations cause real devastation
the inhabitants will cheer and clap in admiration?

They believe, and may even be willing to place a bet,
that in their floods the Brits just got their feet wet.
Did the police he saw fit to congratulate
include the ones who have never learned how to shoot straight?

Britain, he warned, has two billion competitors in the Indians and Chinese,
although he made no mention of the Japanese.
Why then is he so upbeat about outsourcing jobs to Bangalore
and on keeping imports from China increasing more and more?

In the Group of Seven, he claimed with pride,
Britain’s standing no-one could deride
or its amazing achievement could they contest
as it claimed the place of second best.

If he had used the OECD data base, reputed by those who know to be better weighted,
his braggadocio boast would have been soon deflated
as it shows his country as number six in the wealthy band --
behind such powers as Ireland, Luxemburg, Norway and Switzerland.

Has he never heard the one about lies, damn lies and statistics
when describing obfuscation’s characteristics?
When he invited Mrs. Thatcher to tea and sandwiches with watercress
did he ask her how of the railways she had been able to make such a mess?

He did not deign to mention the one thing everyone was waiting to hear,
whether the date for the election was drawing near.
So Gordon, when you next get up to speak do be a good chap
and please, for the love of heaven, cut the crap.

_____
* ASBOs – Anti-Social Behaviour Orders. Court orders handed out to people who engage in unacceptable and anti-social behaviour. Many to whom they are given consider them to be badges of honour and try to accumulate as many as they can. This may be explained by the unfortunate wording that makes it appear to some as if they are being ordered to engage in anti-social behaviour.

**ABCs – Acceptable Behaviour Contracts. Don’t even ask.

[Praguetory]

I think you are right that he needs to be assured of victory before making a move. I don't think he'll be leading Labour into the next GE.

[Gordon, London]

Sorry Danny, you're wrong.

In 1994 Brown was dead in the water before he began because Blair was, self-evidently, the better candidate and had the support to win. So I'd absolve Brown of the 'bottler' change on that one.

But this recent farce (Yellow Saturday?) is very different. By any measure, Brown was ahead of Cameron and the reason Brown didn't call an election? Because he couldn't be CERTAIN of winning a decent majority. There would have been a tough three week campaign with everything to play for but with the incumbent PM in the stronger position (something reflected in the ultra-responsive betting markets).

A bloke who knows he's got to fight in the next three years but refuses to step into the ring unless he's guaranteed a victory is a bottler. He'll end up delaying and delaying until he's forced to put up his fists.

At which point he'll lose.

[Ben]

He has not bottled anything, he took a much braver choice which shows more foresight. Gordon Brown is top knotch. He may be one the best prime ministers we ever had. We have to give him a chance to succeed, he knows very well what he is doing. Some may not appreciate him at first, however, they will in my view. Go on England!

ps. Also, the last we need are the conservatives, about whom most of us have had enough of to last us a lifetime.

[James, London]

I think the reality is that the economy will catch up with Brown. He has consistently based his spending on over-optimistic forecasts. Given that he was the man holding the purse strings it is going to be difficult to absolve responsibility as the economy slows and the reality around public spending and stealth taxes become more and more apparent. By delaying he is just playing into the Conservatives hands.