McCain the maverick sees off Mitt

When John McCain was at rock bottom, Jay Cost tried to figure out why.

His theory? That you could win the race as a moderate but not as a maverick. The problem with McCain, he suggested, was that you simply didn't know where he would go on an issue.

But it turned out that McCain had a stroke of luck.

There wasn't one other non-maverick contender.

Being the non-maverick contender was Romney's schtick. He was running as the reliable conservative. The problem is that he wasn't. His history meant that he never could be. And even with the support of the National Review and Ann Coulter he couldn't get enough conservatives to trust him.

Does his departure and McCain's impending victory mean that traditional Reagan conservatism is dead?

I don't think so. McCain remains marginally more likely to win than to lose. And if he loses, his maverick departures from orthodoxy will get the blame. A candidate with a better pedigree than Romney will take up the charge.

We may have seen Romney's last stand. We haven't seen the last stand of Ronald Reagan.

Comments

[Jacob from Chicago]

I am so very relieved that Romney is gone. You say his history doesn't reflect what he is trying to be, and I think that was very clear in all of his actions. His makeup, and styling across every facet of life was garish. An America which votes for Bush in the second election was so numerous, I felt drowned in a culture of happy ignorance. This America it seems is now withering under exhaustion and a little reason, and not soon enough. What the conservatives need is a proper education.

[Jonathan]

This is weird and kind of nonsensical:

1) McCain is far less likely to win than not. He is polling worse or even in opposition to both Democratic candidates who have been kicking each other in the the stomach. Meanwhile, no one except Romney has been hitting McCain (even he's been soft compared to what he'll be getting from Hillary or Obama). He is also going to get suited with the Bush legacy soon. McCain is actually in bad, bad trouble.

2) If the problem with being a maverick is that you can't win as a maverick, only a moderate, how in the world does being the ONLY maverick help you win. It seems way more likely that the only more genuine conservative in the race than McCain was Thompson, who was both too lazy and too boring to beat McCain. Rudy was insane and appeal to absolutely no demographic in either party. Mittmentum switched so many positions that it was hard to know what demographic should vote for him. The Huck was all social conservative/no economic conservative, also too poor.

3) I agree we haven't seen Reagan's last stand, but McCain's victory isn't even conceivable contrary to that. He has been running as an initial member of the Reagan "revolution". He is going to be kowtowing to the Reaganites on every front now to consolidate his base before a tough general.

[Lholst]

I think everyone is making too much of Romney's simple humanity. What is wrong with everyone???? Who's perfect? Look at Cindy McCain, an heiress with a drug scandal past. How about her husband John, a member of the Keating Five Scandal? Hillary? Obama(past with teen drugs)? Huckabee is no angel. Think about it - knock down someone who has a decent family, kids without blemish, smart, a qualified presidential candidate who can turn around our economic crisis and all because people are accusing Romney of "pandering" - give us a break and grow up America! This is not the "Miss America" contest where all of the contestants are suppose to claim they only want "world peace" to receive a round of applause. I think we made a HUGE mistake letting Romney go by the wayside.

[Don]

The GOP contest may not be over. Governor Romney did not officially drop out of the race. Officially, he suspended his campaign. This means that he retains the delegates he has won. If Governor Huckabee and Congressman Paul manage to acquire another 471 delegates between them, the GOP will find itself holding a brokered convention with Governor Romney sitting in the catbird seat.

It seems unlikely that Governor Romney or Congressman Paul would be the least bit inclined to throw their weight in behind Senator McCain. This implies that Governor Huckabee has a better shot at being the GOP nominee than media pundits are wont to suggest.

[Don C.]

The average citizen relies on the main-stream media for information upon which to form his opinion. Unfortunately, when air time is accounted for, (in all forms) and the tenor of the commentary is evaluated one finds that there is a clear bias in favor of Democratic Party candidates. This provides an advantage to Sen. Obama and Clinton. However, Sen. McCain has demonstrated by his actions of the past eight years that his brand of conservatism oscillates back and forth across the center line instead of solidly to the right. History has shown that moderate conservatives fail to resonate with a majority of members within the Republican Party; a party currently in disarray and seemingly without coalescing leadership. If Sen. McCain feels that he can capture the conservative base as well as the more conservative Reagan Democrats, he may be in for a surprise. Word on the street: if he captures the nomination, which is likely, many Republicans will take their toys and stay home this November. This would be a boon to the Democratic candidate. Either way, it promises to be a stimulating election.

[John Calveri]

Our Country has become less atractive all of a sudden now that Romney is out of the race. Romney stood for everything good this country had more than any other candidate.Our country is selling its soul and I feel lost and confused in a selfish and arrogant country.