Are the superdelegates really a group?

What will the super delegates do?

Now that a Florida do-over seems less likely, the chances are that Barack Obama will approach the convention with a lead among pledged delegates of at least 100, and with 400 super delegates still to declare.

It has often been suggested that the super delegates wouldn't dare overturn the will of the voters. Thus they would favour Obama. Set against that is the idea that super delegates would understand that Obama had won many of his votes in caucuses not primaries. Thus they would back Hillary.

Both of these ideas have a problem - they view super delegates as a group rather than seeing each one as an individual. As a group super delegates might not wish to overturn the will of voters, say, but this will be only among many factors influencing each individual.

I remember during the recall vote on Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith, it was assumed that MPs wouldn't back him because to save his skin at such a late stage would make the party look silly.

But while no MP wanted the party to look silly, that didn't determine their own vote. And in the end Mr Duncan Smith came surprisingly close to hanging on.

Thus broad stabs at guessing which way super delegates will go based on theories about their responsibilites as a group are likely to miss the mark.

Things like personal relationships, individual political preferences and embarassment (forcing someone to support a candidate they don't want, but feel they know too well to turn down) will all be deciding factors.

What does this suggest? That it will be hard for either candidate to dominate the remaining 400 or so superdelegates.

They will split, sure, and probably Hillary's way. But for her to win by a margin of more than 100 is tough to see.

Obama's advantage at this stage is huge, really.

Comments

[Candadai Tirumalai]

The Democratic party brought in superdelegates after the 1972 Presidential election in which Richard Nixon roundly denounced Senator McGovern; many party elders attributed that fiasco to the party having been taken over by incensed idealists without political judgment. Al Gore has not pronounced on Hillary and Barack but he is a superdelegate. So is Bill Clinton. So are Democratic Governors of states and members of Congress, people well versed in elections and in reading the mood of the electorate. The problem at the moment is that the primaries and caucuses are unlikely to lead to a straight nomination. I think the uncommitted delegates will sit on the sidelines until the situation becomes clearer, if it ever does. Otherwise it will be a brokered and possibly acrimonious Convention in Denver, with the superdelegates playing an active part behind the scenes.

[Doug]

A couple of mistakes Daniel. Remaining superdelegates is about 340. It's true that Obama has won most caucuses convincingly (14-3) but guess what? Obama has won most primaries as well (16-12).

Hillary's campaign is now devoted to destroying Obama and if the party goes down with her then so be it. Now more than ever Clinton cannot win a general election because she has burned all her bridges with the African-American community. The Democratic leadership should attempt to put an end to this as an act of party preservation..

[Tony Francis]

The primary system in the Democratic Party by design, picks the most unelectable candidate. This is because, in general, the only voters who participate are far left of center. The super delegates are designed to add a "corrective factor", One suspects that many in the power structure of the Democratic Party are beginning to fear that Obama may not be electable. Look at the comments by Geraldine Ferraro. It isn't because he is black, or that his middle name is "Hussein"; he has surrounded himself with left of center advisors in both domestic and foreign policy. He has proposed $1 trillion in new government spending. His policy advisors have recommended using the US military to impose political solutions in Darfur and Israel/Palestine. After the Republican debacle, the Dems should walk away with the November election. Instead, one gets the impression they are in the process of forming a circular firing squad.