The maths of Shannon Matthews

My reaction was the same as everyone else's. The Shannon Matthews episode seemed almost certain to end in tragedy. They always do, don't they?

Well, no.

A study of missing person cases reported to the Metropolitan Police during 1997 and 1998 showed that only 0.3 per cent of the cases were closed due to the person being found dead.

But surely that's not the case with young vulnerable people missing for a longish perod?

Here's what Geoff Newiss reported to the Home Office in 1999 following a programme of research:

The majority of ‘vulnerable’ missing persons do not meet with tragic consequences.

The Police National Missing Persons Bureau (PNMPB) collects vulnerable missing person reports which are still outstanding after 14 days. Of the 2,197 missing persons entered onto their database in 1997/8, 1,561 (71.0%) had been traced by the end of the year.

Only 938 reports related to missing persons under the age of 18, of which 692 (73.8%) had been traced by the end of the year.

The Missing People charity broadly concurs:

Less than one per cent of police missing person reports conclude with the missing person
being found dead.

Missing People records a higher number of cases resulting in a fatal outcome (around 10 per
cent) because the charity tends to become involved with cases after the initial few days (of
police investigation) have passed. The risk of a missing person being found dead increases
with the duration they are missing.

A Home Office study in 2003 found that the chance of a missing person being the victim of
homicide to be around 1 in 7,400.

The risk varies enormously with age. Teenagers faced the lowest risk, simply because of the
large numbers going missing relative to the number of cases involving homicide.

Young children, below the age of 10, faced at least twice the risk of being the victim of
homicide than the average across all ages.

The discovery of Shannon Matthews was a very unusual way for a media abduction story to end, but much more common for a missing persons case than is usually understood.

Comments

[Lilly Evans]

Thank you for a measured and very informative post. Why is it not in the main section?

After all, we are fed so many opinions and conjectures aimed at raising emotional responses that some balance needs to be maintained.

Get the paper's Editor to reconsider.

[claire mackay]

I'm am just SO glad that Shannon was found! As a parent to a 4yr old girl, it is your worst nightmare come true when anything happens to your child as all parents will know...
I just want to say to Shannon and her family,I am so glad you have your baby back with you, everyone in the country was thinking of you all! I can't imagine the emotions you are going through as a family, but i wish you all, ALL the best for the future. And to Shannon, you are such a brave little girl, and everyone is so happy that you are home safely..

Take care and kind regards
Claire Mackay

[Garth Strong]

LET'S GET SERIOUS!

Hmmm...there is an awful lot of terrible crimes being reported in the UK...and an awful lot of seemingly very lenient sentences when criminals are found guilty.

Is it, as yet, time to become serious about punishing serious crime seriously?

[Louisa]

As a Dewsbury resident with a rather good view of the crime scene, I'm just elated she was found alive and have been smiling since I heard the news.
I'm very impressed how much pressure the Dewsbury Moor community have put on the press to keep Shannon's disappearance high profile in spite of public opinion of the Dewsbury Moor community.
Regardless of the circumstances it was no less tragic at the time than the disappearance of Madeleine McCann and we should be thankful as a nation that the WY police used their instincts when visiting Lidgate Gardens - there's hope for all of us when there's a happy ending.

[JohnB]

I had the exact same reaction, even though I know better. My wife and I have a lot of experience dealing with missing children and getting them back home. All the children were found eventually and none were hurt. Yet as we followed the Shannon story, we both were pessimistic for her safe return.
Actually, the Shannon story is very similar to many I know of, in that she was found in the home of somebody known to her. This is the basis I have found most missing children. My method has been to drive straight to either the homes or area known to the child, and ask. Between talking with kids on the street and knocking on a few doors, I have always been able to locate and retrieve the missing child.
Good the the police found Shannon, not so good that the authorities (or even Shannon's family) did not knock on the right door sooner.