This business with Reverend Jeremiah Wright is a disaster for Obama, right?
Not according to Bill Clinton's former strategist Dick Morris. Here's his view:
At the start of his campaign, Obama ran in counterpoint to the previous candidacies of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. Here was a black man running for president on issues that had nothing to do with race as he rose above the victimization rhetoric that characterizes so many speeches of African-American political figures.
Now, in attacking the Rev. Wright as he did Tuesday, Obama can further define himself in contrast to Wright, just as he did earlier vis-à-vis Jackson and Sharpton.
So if, as the Chinese ideogram suggests, crisis is a synthesis of danger and opportunity, the controversy surrounding the Rev. Jeremiah Wright presents plenty of both for Obama.
I think he is correct.
That Wright poses a great danger to Obama is obvious. How the Senator deals with his identity as an African-American is central to his candidacy. Wright threatens his control of this issue. He might also make Obama look weak (he can't shut his old friend down), less than honest (did he really not know what this man was about) and threatening (maybe Wright's views are secretly Obama's).
But as Tony Blair and Bill Clinton demonstrated again and again, every crisis is really an opportunity.
Obama can exploit the attention now being paid to Wright to show that he is strong (he slaps down those who cross him, even old friends), on the level (he speaks out clearly) and on your side (he defines himself against Wright).
This is a difficult trick because the story has started badly and it is always quite a challenge to turn such things round.
But one reason I believe he can pull it off is this - he is going to win the Democratic nomination anyway. he is too far ahead to be stopped. If he plays it right he can have his victory (actually won for other reasons) portrayed as partly the outcome of resilience and courage in the face of the Wright issue.
He can make it look like a triumph. And if he does, then pretty soon it will be a triumph.