All the rumours on the London election....UPDATED

Nobody yet knows the results of the mayoral election but we're hoovering up all the hints, gossip and speculation from all over the web.

We'll keep updating as the day progresses.

I'll start with my own contribution. Senior sources inside Conservative HQ say privately that the party believe that Boris will win by between 4 and 8 per cent after second preferences.

It is hard to tell how they calculated that figure, but turnout on Tory areas is what has led to their confidence. In Edmonton, for instance, at one point they ran out of ballot papers.

And it's not just CCHQ. At the top level the Boris campaign believes today will be crowned with victory.

LATEST UPDATE: Senior party source tells me "Boris has got it". Thinks it won't quite be on the first preferences "but it will be pretty close to that".

At 7.35pm Adam Boulton on Sky reports that the top five constituencies for turnout are leaning Boris and the botton five are leaning for Ken. He describes the hope that Labour had that it might squeeze in on second preferences as "evaporating". He adds that Brian Paddick has told him he expects a Boris victory and that he has had the same verdict from Tessa Jowell. He doesn't now think we will get a result until around 11pm.

Iain Dale: from the man whose tremendous blogging over the last 24 hours has shown the value of this form of journalism, comes two more fascinating snippets...

6.34 Unbelievable. Brian Paddick just admitted on BBC London that he had given his second preference to Lindsey German, the Left List Candidate! Words almost fail me.

6.29 Peter Kelner (head of YouGov) has just said live on BBC London radio that he will resign on air if Boris isn't declared winner in London. Over to you, MORI.

Nick Robinson:

A booky BBC colleague, Robin Chrystal, suggests that Boris may be getting a little extra help from on high. Some religious calendars indicate that today is St Boris' Day.

The Bulgarian and Greek Orthodox calendar of saints has 2 May as his feast day.

St Boris was the pagan ruler of Bulgaria - Boris I - in the ninth century. According to some sources his conversion to Christianity met great opposition in Bulgaria. Boris ruthlessly suppressed it and executed 52 boyars together with their entire families

Three Line Whip: A long night ahead...

According to an official at the count, by 3pm only 40 per cent of votes had been counted since the machines whirred into action at 8.30am.

Politics Home: Worth reading all of this

Gordon Brown will not be able to recover from Labour's savaging in the local elections and go on to win the next general election.  That's the majority verdict of the PHI100, the most authoritative survey of expert and inside political opinion in Britain

Benedict Brogan's Blog:

There's a dreadful rumour going round that the London result won't be in much before midnight. Isn't this supposed to be the wealthiest, most sophisticated city on earth? Suddenly it's all looking a bit Zimbabwean

BBC News:

With 40% of votes counted in each of the 14 electoral areas - Mr Johnson has the lead in nine while Labour's Ken Livingstone is ahead in five.

London Elects, which organises the elections, says it expects the results "not before" 2030 BST.

Conservative Home: 4.08pm: Approximate, unofficial interims from the London count...

Ealing & Hill - 48% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%

West Central - 42% counted, Boris about 60% Ken about 30%

South West - 44% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%

Lambeth & Southwark - 46% counted, Boris about 30% Ken about 50%

Croydon & Sutton - 43% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 30%

Merton & Wandsworth - 40% counted, Boris about 50% Ken about 35%

Dizzy Thinks:

Email just in that Brian Paddick has entered the Excel count centre and looks "resigned".

Three Line Whip: What Ken could do next - a suggestion for Brown

Why not parachute Ken Livingstone in as your candidate in the up-coming Crewe and Nantwich by-election? He might even win that one.

Conservative Home:

Alan Duncan has told Sky that the "supremacy" of Ken Livingstone over London is over.

Dizzy Thinks: BNP conspiracy theories

Have just received word from the count that BNP members are openly discussing their concerns that the ballots have all been deliberately doctored to stop them receiving any votes. Reality check time. You're not receiving votes because you're a bunch of white power socialist dickheads that are led by a guy with a gammy eye who looks a bit odd.

Dizzy Thinks:

According to Sky News, the turnout for London was 45%. I don't know where they have got that figure of course, but as Iain has noted on his live blog post, it is "good for the Tories because it means that turnout in inner London must have been much lower than in the outer Tory boroughs."

Have just been speaking to someone at the count at Excel and Iain's point may hold true. According to my source, the City and East GLA seat, which Labour is leading by about 65 to 35, is also the count that is farthest ahead.

The seat has apparently managed to count almost 50% of the vote so far, whilst the other seats being counted at Excel - that's the outer-boroughs - are only on the 38% mark. This would suggest that the turnout in the inner-borough of City and East is significantly lower than the others.

Iain Dale's Diary:

2.42 One of the count officials in London has just (in jest) announced the winner of the mayoral contest - it is Robert Mugabe!

Iain Dale's Diary:

2.21 Inside info from the London counts...

City and East GLA seat: Labour leading 65:35
Greenwich and Lewisham: Labour leading 60:40
Bexley and Bromley: Con leading 80:20
Croydon & Sutton: Con leading 65:35

Livingstone running marginally ahead of GLA candidates, but only by 2%

Three Line Whip:

Iain Dale is suggesting that Boris's amiable father Stanley would be ideally placed to stand as the Tory candidate in the by-election - and the man himself does nothing to suppress the idea.

"Put it this way, I'm still on the candidates' list," the 67-year-old grandfather of eleven and former Conservative MEP has just told me

Conservative Home:

A source at the London Evening Standard has just emailed us to say it's looking "very, very good" for Boris.

Iain Dale's Diary:

1.39 The count at Olympia is only 25% complete. Very slow.

Political Betting: Paddy Power is already rewarding Boris betters

The Irish bookie has already started paying out - even though it’s won’t be until this evening that we get the actual result.

Three Line Whip: More problems with voting in Camden and Barnet

News of an incident which could prove significant if the result of the mayoral race in London really goes to the wire.

I can reveal that voters wanting to exercise their democratic right at five polling stations in north London early yesterday morning had something of a surprise: there were no ballot papers available.

Conservative Home: Comment from Judy in chatroom

Sky is saying Boris has got 44%, Ken 40%, and predicting that although Ken will get 58% of Paddick's second pref votes, the 48% that Boris gets will still be enough to make him Mayor. Overall turnout, 45%-- well above the general election of 37% in London

[Judy's maths, not Comment Central's)

Liberal Democrat Voice: Some technical issues...

It could be a long, long day in London as the counting machines for Merton and Wandsworth have already run into problems with paper jams.

Sky News:

Estimated turnout for London Mayoral Election 45%

Politics Home: Apparently Brian Paddick now thinks he might become an MP 

Political Betting: From their comments - a Metro poll:

Ken Livingstone is on course for a convincing win over Conservative opponent Boris Johnson if an exit poll carried out by Metro yesterday is accurate. The poll was carried out in three London boroughs - the Labour stronghold of Lewisham, the Liberal Democrat-held seat of Brent East and traditional Tory heartland Barnet.

THe final tally showed the incumbent mayor taking aroudn 55 per cent of the vote. He won in Lewisham, Willesden Green and, despite coming second on first preferences, drew level when second preferences were totted up in Barnet.

Boulton & Co: Just put up the following...

About one in ten of first preference votes are in, and Boris Johnson has a reasonable lead in most London constituencies.

Much too early to be sure, but apart from the Ken and Boris struggle, look out for the BNP candidate Richard Barnbrook. He's showing strongly.

Labour Home: Is their current debate really the most relevant question right now?

Is election literature junk mail?

Guido Fawkes:

YouGov called national share of the vote right ... Which bodes well for their lone call of London for Boris....

James Forsyth in Coffee House: Brown, the author of his own misfortune

If Boris has won London—which seems almost certain, watch to see what Ken says about why he lost. If he blames his defeat on Labour’s national unpopularity, he will heighten the skittish mood among Labour MPs.

Red Box: What do Labour believe about London?

Liberal Burblings: It's Boris, Robinson

The BBC's Nick Robinson reports that the first ballot boxes have been opened for the London Mayoral count and the strong feeling is that Boris has won.

Iain Dale's Dairy:

10.24 I'm hearing that 3,000 postal votes have been destroyed in Tower Hamlets. Anyone know anything about this?

Political Betting:

Has Harriet Harman conceded that London is lost?

Nick Robinson's Newslog:

If - as insiders on both sides now expect - Boris Johnson is elected mayor of London later today David Cameron will be able to herald his party's most successful night since John Major's general election victory in 1992

Conservative Home:

9.38am: BBC's Carole Walker says Downing Street fears a Boris win resulting from high turnout in the suburbs.

Dizzy Thinks: Dizzy puts Boris ahead in the gambling market in his post 'The wisdom of (betting) crowds'

Labour Representation Committee:

3:45 - John McDonnell MP: "If Ken wins in London, which looks increasingly tough, it will be because of his personal vote and the policies he's introduced."

Conservative Home:

We're calling London for Boris

Comments

[allison wylde]

Sir, is this a an extinction or survival of the fittest?

Allison Wylde London North 17

[popopy Rey]

not your luck this time.....Gordon....this time the tide is turning.

[MN]

Am I missing something but why when the rest of the country can provide the results of the elections by the morning, do we in London have to wait and wait and wait....? I for one always try to vote - I feel it is a great privilege and after so many times still feel the buzz of walking into the polling station, announcing my name and address and making my mark on the ballot paper. However this morning instead of participating in the feeling of joy/sorrow and feeling I was part of that, I was not just left feeling empty but feeling that the rest of the country has continued in the tradition of our great democracy whereas London has decided to follow the example of Mugabe.....and that feeling with be reinforced if the other friend of Venezuela's Chavez, ie. Mr.Livingstone, gets back in....

[Alex]

"we're hoovering up all the hints, gossip and speculation from all over the web". So in fact you're not telling us anything that's not already available on the internet.

[Jez W. Leeds]

Although an unsophisticated Northern Monkey (and proud of it), my visit to London due to work, has been well interesting due all to these Mayoral shenanigans.

4 sites and an office to go to on Thursday, dotted all over- the situation called for operation 'public transport-dumb monkey'. Tube, train and bus, all well used.

Toward the back end of the day things started to go weird- in the tube station entrances appeared crews of non English speaking, t-shirted dealers of 'its not to late to vote' newspapers and massive screens in the stations with 'vote, vote, vote' blaring out all the time.

All obviously aimed at the upwardly mobile, the industries and nationalities that serves them.

Got finished at 6 and found a sports bar to have a few pints in and read a few papers-

one of them had like roulette chips on it with the places that the candidates had visited.

Only Boris's roulette chip had gone to Dagenham, Romford etc.

Is this because these are the original Londoners that have moved due to massive demographic change, brought on by unchecked immigration that are voting BNP?

Was the effort in the stations the last surge by the establishment to halt any progression by this party through appealing at the polar opposite of the working class that have turned to whatever that Dizzy thinks?

Probably not.

Personally-

go Bozza, nock that Red Kenneth off his crappy pedestal!

[Paul]

Suggestions for alternative uses for Ken Livingstone's head:

Swivelling amusement park clown head
£5 a go - no make that £8

[Paul]

Suggestions for alternative uses for Ken Livingstone's head:

Swivelling amusement park clown head
£5 a go - no make that £8

[tony calder]

bit hard to swallow Mr Adam Boulton ?

[Susan Wade Weeks]

This is a great moment for London...proof that when the British public decide that things must change, they will get out and make it happen.

Congratulations and GOOD LUCK to Boris, and WELL DONE to everyone on the team who worked day and night for months and months...Such a relief...!