Clinton vs. Obama: The Endgame UPDATES
As Hillary Clinton faces up to the inevitable, Comment Central will be following what's going on. We'll be hoovering up the information out there on the net as we take those little steps towards a formal Obama victory.
Want to know what's happening in Hillary's camp? Rumours of a withdrawal? The start of a "finish it now" bandwagon? New superdelgate endorsements? Stick with this rolling Comment Central post.
I'll be putting new information in at the top so if you are new, reader, you will want to start with the earliest timed post (11.30hrs). All timing is UK time.
Day 14:
15.13: Here's The Caucus again:
Voters in Kentucky and Oregon will likely give Barack Obama enough pledged delegates tonight to give him a majority of the delegates awarded through the nominating contests — which could cause more undeclared superdelegates to jump off the fence and support him as well
15.00: Senator Byrd, the longest serving senator, has endorsed Barack Obama, according to the Washington Wire. This is particualrly interesting given his youthful affiliation with the KKK (for which he has apologised many times):
In a statement, the 90-year old-Senate legend lauded Obama as a “shining young statesman” a “noble-hearted patriot” and a “humble Christian.” In particular, Byrd said that his shared opposition to the Iraq war with Obama was a key factor in his decision
Day 13:
17.15: And here's The Caucus:
Adding a new mathematical twist to her case for the Democratic presidential nomination, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton said on Monday that she had not only won more popular votes than Senator Barack Obama, she had won states totaling far more electoral votes.
17:03: The AP has this from Clinton:
You can declare yourself anything, but if you don't have the votes, it doesn't matter.
And this...
So I'm going to make my case and I'm going to make it until we have a nominee, but we're not going to have one today and we're not going to have one tomorrow and we're not going to have one the next day.
Day 10:
13.21: The Caucus reports on at least four more Obama superdelagate endorsements.
Day 9:
16.20: Real Clear Politics tells us that Obama has picked up the United Steelworkers Endorsement, thanks to John Edwards.
10.41: In a CNN interview, Clinton makes the following statement:
"Anybody who has ever voted for me or voted for Barack has much more in common in terms of what we want to see happen in our country and in the world with the other than they do with John McCain," Clinton said on CNN's "The Situation Room."
I'm going to work my heart out for whoever our nominee is. Obviously, I'm still hoping to be that nominee, but I'm going to do everything I can to make sure that anyone who supported me ... understands what a grave error it would be not to vote for Sen. Obama.
10.39: Edwards endorses Obama
Day 8:
11.00: And here's Terry McAuliffe discussing campaign finances with the Washington Wire:
We have the money to play obviously the next three weeks that we have,” and adding, “Our staff’s fully paid, we’ve opened all our offices, we’re buying media, we’re doing everything a candidate does for president and tonight I think we’ll have another great night as we had last Tuesday night on the Web.
10.48: After Clinton's West Virginia triumph last night, The Caucus brings us this from her victory speech.
Here’s the money quote: “I am in this race because I believe I am the strongest candidate. The strongest candidate to lead our party in November of 2008 and the strongest President to lead our nation starting in January of 2008 I can win this nomination if you decide I should and I can lead this party to victory in the general election if you lead me to victory now.”
Day 7:
16.52: Hillary Clinton advocate James Carville drops this bombshell.
"I still hear some dogs barking," Carville said, according to The State newspaper. "I'm for Senator Clinton, but I think the great likelihood is that Obama will be the nominee."
"As soon as I determine when that is, I'll send him a check," he added.
16.23: Is this a hint from Hillary in the New York Post?
"Thank you for caring so much about our country," Clinton said in a video sent yesterday to supporters. "And now it's on to West Virginia and Kentucky and Oregon, and we'll stay in touch."
Not mentioned in her apparent video swan song are the final three primaries, in Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, to be held after next week - leading to speculation that she might pull the plug on her campaign after what are expected to be strong wins in West Virginia and Kentucky.
15.19: The Huffington Post does its sums and works out that Obama could take the nomination in three weeks
12.04: A new Washington Post/ABC News poll contains the following:
Despite Obama’s advantage in delegates and popular vote, 64 percent of Democrats in
the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say Clinton should remain in the race. Even
among Obama’s supporters, 42 percent say so.
Day 6:
18.13: CNN and Carl Bernstein on Clinton and the Vice Presidency:
Friends and close associates of both Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are now convinced that, assuming she loses the race for the presidential nomination, she is probably going to fight to be the vice presidential nominee on an Obama-for-president ticket.
Carl Bernstein writes that Hillary Clinton's campaign recognizes that it faces an uphill battle.
17.08: Real Clear Politics reports on another endorsement for Obama:
Maine Rep. Tom Allen endorsed Obama at a press conference this morning. Obama defeated Clinton in the February 10 Maine caucus, winning 15 pledged delegates to Clinton's 9. Allen, who's challenging GOP Sen. Susan Collins this year, has likewise been endorsed by Obama.
14.48: Ben Smith outlines six options for Clinton
13.31: And here's Clinton herself, via The Fix:
"I'm going to keep going because you're keeping me going," she said at a rally yesterday in Oregon, pledging to her supporters to remain in the race regardless of the long odds against her.
13.26: According to the Washington Wire, Clinton also held a Manhattan fundraiser on Sunday. New York Representative Charlie Rangel went along.
Rangel, a longtime Clinton supporter, stressed that the New York senator still had a chance to take the nomination. “Why the hell would I be here at a Clinton rally, if I didn’t think she could win?”
13.19: Over the weekend, the following good news for Obama on the superdelegate front. Here's Real Clear Politics:
The four endorsements give Obama a total of seven superdelegate endorsements today.
Day 3:
17.02: And according to Political Radar, Obama is now ahead in the superdelegate count as well
Sen. Obama, D-Ill., picked up two superdelegates this morning giving him a new metric to tout in addition to his current commanding leads in pledged delegates, popular votes, states won, and money raised
16.03: Obama catches Clinton in Capitol Hill endorsements
13.12: Hillary works through the sums in West Virginia. Here's the Washington Wire quote:
Campaigning in the state Thursday, Clinton added something to her stump speech, which has focused heavily on her populist economic policy. âNow the delegate math may be complicated, but the electoral math is easy,â she told a cheering crowd in the rotunda of the state capitol in Charleston. âWe need 270 electoral votes to win in November.â
12.30: The Hill reports on another superdelegate endorsement.
Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.) announced, after meeting with Obama at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee headquarters, that he would endorse the Illinois senator for president
12.23: Clinton won't be pleased by Al Sharpton's remarks last night. From The Caucus:
The worst thing in the world is when an entertainer doesnât know when the show is over. The audience is gone, the lights are down, youâre getting ready to cut the mics off and you are still on the stage singing. Itâs over, itâs all right, itâs over. Come sing another day, but this show is over Senator Clinton.
Day 2:
17.37: Not all superdelegates are making the leap. At least according to Washington Wire:
While four superdelegates jumped on the Barack Obama bandwagon Wednesday, handfuls of others said theyâre perfectly happy remaining neutral, at least through June 3, when the primary season ends.
17.18: Ben Smith reports on more embarrassment for Clinton as Obama hits the House:
New York Rep. Yvette Clarke, in theory a Clinton superdelegate, asked him to autograph the cover of today's New York Daily News, with the headling "It's His Party."
16.39: Edwards still refuses to endorse but here's some interesting news from The Caucus:
John Edwardsâs endorsement still eludes the Democratic candidates, but today one of his top advisers threw his support behind Barack Obama.
16.12: But she's still keeping the superdelegates on side. Here's Justin Webb's America
I understand from someone in the Clinton campaign that fundraising services are now being offered to super-delegates in need of assistance, an effort to be nice which has the (wholly unexpected) side-effect of keeping them sweet
16.10: And here's the Reuters story:
It'll be over early June," McAuliffe said. "We've all said we'll be together at the end. If Hillary doesn't win, Hillary, (former) President (Bill) Clinton, myself, we'll be over there helping Senator Obama. And, likewise, Senator Obama will come together to help Hillary if she's the nominee."
16.06: Huffington Post:
Lawrence O'Donnell: Top Hillary Official Says She'll Drop Out By June 15
15.36: Is this why she won't quit? A theory from Thomas Defrank in the New York Daily News.
A top Democratic source with insight into Bill's and Hillary's states of mind says the Clintons are convinced that a Democratic presidency is all but certain no matter how messy the fight for the nomination.
In that scenario - which the Obama side and some Democratic elders worry is wishful thinking at best, delusional at worst - there's no downside for Hillary doing whatever it takes for as long as it takes.
15.29: Obama's advisors have May 20 in mind as well. Politico has this lede:
Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.
And, until at least May 31 and perhaps longer, Hillary Clintonâs campaign plans to dispute it.
And this statement:
âOn May 20 weâre going to declare victory,â said an Obama senior advisor
15.06: Here's The Caucus on a possible end-date:
But this time, May 20 actually could be a game-changing date, when Kentucky and Oregon come into play.
The candidates will be traveling to Oregon, and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton gave no hint last night at a fundraiser in Washington that she would drop out before then.
14.14: Time's new cover isn't pulling any punches
14.10: The Huffington Post speculates on the rewards that would await Clinton should she stand down now:
One of the most inviting is the near certainty that the Obama campaign would agree to pay back the $11.4 million she has loaned her own bid, along with an estimated $10 million to $15 million in unpaid campaign expenses.
In addition, Democrats, both those who are loyal and those who are opposed to her campaign, say the odds of her winning a top leadership spot in the Senate would improve dramatically if she gracefully conceded now.
11.42: Hillary Clinton spent last night energising her female fanbase in Washington DC. Washington Wire reports on the 'Generations of Women for Hillary' fundraiser:
Iâve been counted out more than once. But thanks to all of you Iâve come back,â Clinton said, earning a thunderous, extended ovation. She later added, âWhen I was counted out in New Hampshire, it was the women of New Hampshire who came back and said, âNo, sheâs not finished yet.â When I was counted out before Super Tuesday it was women from California to Massachusetts who came and said âNo, weâre not finished yet.â When I was counted out before Ohio, before Indiana, we have always come back.
11.39: Here's The Washington Post on another Clinton meeting
Clinton did meet with some uncommitted superdelegates individually. House Budget Committee Chairman John M. Spratt Jr. (S.C.) told her cordially that his state had gone overwhelmingly for Obama, and that he could not endorse her, Spratt spokesman Chuck Fant said. He pledged to stay neutral for now.
10.33: Ben Smith has some new superdelegate developments. A somewhat grudging endorsement of Clinton from Indiana:
Brad Ellsworth, whose Indiana district Clinton carried, goes with her.
UPDATE: Ellsworth spokeswoman Liz Farrar emails to contest the original report I linked. Ellsworth will endorse the winner of his district, he says in a statement, "unless there is a compelling reason to do otherwise."
23.00: More Clinton superdelegate news from the AP:
She picked up two in the wake of Tuesday's loss in North Carolina and narrow victory in Indiana. North Carolina Rep. Heath Shuler had said he would support the winner of his district, and she won it handily. A spokeswoman for Texas labor leader Robert Martinez told the AP he is committed to Clinton, but it wasn't clear when he made the decision.
But she lost another supporter, Virginia state House member Jennifer McClellan, who switched to Obama.
22.07: Drudge has this developing story:
CONGRESSIONAL SOURCE: Hillary having trouble finding superdelegates who will meet with her... 'No one wants to see her today'...
21:59: The Obama campaign announces three additional superdelegates. Here's The Caucus report:
Today, in the wake of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, the Obama campaign is announcing three new superdelegates: Jerry Meek, chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, Jeanette Council, a member of the D.N.C. from North Carolina and Inola Henry, a member of the D.N.C. from California.
18.11: She's not going anywhere (or so she says). Ben Smith brings us this Clinton quote from West Virginia:
Next Tuesday, I hope you will give me a chance to be your president
18.03: The Stump on the argument that Clinton may stay for West Virginia and Kentucky in order to make herself seem indispensable
17.26: Wonkette brings us this Craigslist posting. They're giving away free Clinton campaign paraphanelia with the line.
Won't be needing them
17.03: The Washington Post brings us McGovern's statement:
Hillary, of course, will make the decision as to if and when she ends her campaign. But I hope that she reaches that decision soon so that we can concentrate on a unified party capable of winning the White House next November
16.54: And another backer falls (courtesy of Ben Smith). George McGovern is calling Bill and endorsing Obama.
16.52: And from the Daily Kos...
I still say that Oregon should push Obama over the 2,024.5 mark. Or if the Clinton campaign remains obtuse, enough to get him over whatever number he needs when including Michigan and Florida
16.37: Wesley Clark apparantly rang Clinton last night to tell her it was over.
16.33: The Caucus brings us more news of the Clinton camp conference call this morning. Here's strategist Geoff Garin on whether Florida and Michigan's delegates should come into play:
All weâÂÂre saying is, we ought to let the process play through. We think that it continues to be constructive for the Democratic Party to do that, as we go into these next set of states.
15.55: This from The Stump:
Opening what may prove his most challenging conference call of the campaign, Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson promises to "talk about how we go forward from here towards the nomination and victory in November."
15.03: More bad news for Clinton's funding team on Justin Webb's America:
One of her fundraisers told me in the middle of the night that a large sum of money to be clinched tomorrow will now be lost.
14.51: The Obama campaign releases a new memo to the superdelegates. The Caucus carries the full text but here's an extract:
With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days. While those scenarios may be entertaining, they are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or its millions of supporters, volunteers, and donors.
14.29: The AP states that Clinton has loaned herself $6.4 million over the last month. Drudge suggests she'll be giving more
13.52: Gamblers shy away from Clinton. Check out the dip in Slate's market value graph over the past 24 hours
13.47: Real Clear Politics brings us Howard Wolfson (Clinton's Communications Director) on MSNBC's Morning Joe
I don't think there's any question that we're going to have to have a pretty good month here between now and the last contest on June 3. And it starts next week in West Virginia. Polls have us up there. I don't know if we're going to believe those. ... We're going to need points up on the board, no question about it.
13.15: And here's the New York Daily News
12:33: The Washington Wire has this from the Clinton campaign plane
The spokesmen confirmed that Clinton would indeed be meeting with superdelegates on Wednesday, but said that both candidates commonly hold such meetings to check in with delegates and attempt to make their case to the undecided.
12.28: This is this morning's New York Post
12.16 hrs: The Huffington Post has this:
After the Reverend Wright controversy, Hillary Clinton had the nomination in her hands. Obama was suffering the worst press month of his campaign," said Republican media consultant Alex Castellanos. "Then she had a choice. She could have gotten bigger, more presidential, less political, could have risen to defend Obama. 'This is outrageous and has no place in politics.' She didn't do that. Instead, she chose to become smaller, more political, less presidential. Her own political instincts betrayed her.
11.55hrs: The Drudge Report still carries a smiling picture of Michelle and Barack Obama over two words: THE NOMINEE
11.40hrs. Over on Politico.com, Ben Smith reports that the Clinton camp are denying her programme has been scrapped:
Damping down speculation that she'll leave the race, Clinton adds a noon event in Shepherdstown, WV to her schedule today. Also, Clinton spokesman Phil Singer denies Clinton cancelled morning show appearances, saying they were never scheduled.
11.30hrs. Lets start with this news from The Caucus that Mrs Clinton has cancelled her morning interviews:
What to make of the fact that Mrs. Clinton has cancelled her morning TV interviews? In this campaign, that may almost be taken as a sign of surrender - either that or she hasnâÂÂt figured out yet what her next move is and doesnâÂÂt want to have to answer a bunch of questions until she does.
Before we go on, let me give you the maths from 2008 Democratic Convention Watch.
There are 217 pledged delegates still to be fought over and 267 super delegates yet to announce their endorsements, a total of 494. Obama needs 183 of them. Assuming conservatively that he wins roughly 100 of the remaining pledged delegates, he needs around 80 super delegates.
You can read the full list of those superdelegates who have already made endorsements here, and of those yet to endorse here.
A presidential candidate who does not know the meaning of words has no place in the campaign. Hillary Clinton's threat to 'obliterate' Iran was silly, uncalled for and immoral. 9/11 was peanuts compared to Hiroshima - obliterated by the U.S.A. An American president who can threaten to obliterate a whole country is a menace and threat to the world.
Posted by: San Ying | 7 May 2008 12:33:57
please i was having a strong enthusiasm for Hillary partly because of bill Clinton's memorable records of peace, so i conceive it as unfortunate for hillary to make such devastating statement on an entire country of Iran stature.these manner of saying things against others by hillary , and this is what made me to transfer my support to obama. obama understands the modern world very well and i believe he has better ideas to rule the world safely.
Posted by: mukhtar ajit | 7 May 2008 13:27:08
The news this morning is not as clinching for Barack Obama as his campaign would have wished -- that would have meant his winning both Indiana and North Carolina -- but it is less encouraging for Hillary Clinton than she would have liked because while he won the latter state by a wide margin she won Indiana only by a narrow one.
Posted by: Candadai Tirumalai | 7 May 2008 13:46:02
Clinton has run the most despicable campaign in memory.
After her massive assault, casting aside every ethical and intellectual consideration, it does seem unlikely she will quit until the bitter end.
And it will be a bitter end. She has already contributed heavily to piling the fine man who certainly will be the candidate with filth and innuendo.
I once was one of those sympathetic to her under the ugly treatment she received from Republicans in the White House, but her campaign has erased every trace of that sympathy.
Hillary is a nightmare, and, as anyone who has had a bad one knows, part of their frightening nature is that nightmares seem like they will never stop.
Posted by: JOHN CHUCKMAN, TORONTO | 7 May 2008 14:49:00
I agree with you San Ying. It shows what rational Clinton would bring into the white house.
On the other hand, she may have said that out of pure desperation, making herself look like the candidate that had the "real" solutions. Like obliterating a country of over 71 million inhabitants.
Posted by: Ahmed Hirsi | 7 May 2008 14:52:09
Clinton has shown great determination, where others would have dropped out and be happy with being Vice president.
Obama has proved he is the better candidate and i hope he can wake up to that 3am phone call after campaigning so hard.
Posted by: Ahmed Hirsi | 7 May 2008 14:55:06
George McGovern, until now inexplicably a Clinton supporter, just announced he's switching to Obama and publicly called for her to quit.
I think this is very significant, and marks the beginning of the end for her.
Millions are sick of her voice and even sicker of her despicable tactics.
Posted by: JOHN CHUCKMAN, TORONTO | 7 May 2008 16:42:43
Hillary LOST BOTH states!!!. The 22000 margin she got in Indiana is far less than votes she got from cross-over republicans intended to prolong the fight.
BTW, too bad that Obama does not want to engage in a negative campaign. He could have shown the Hillary Bosnia lie footage over and ever again as she did to him on his “bitter” comments. If he did, she would be crushed a long time ago.
Posted by: leighg1 | 7 May 2008 16:46:37
Indiana Fraud against Clinton?
Now, according to the Washington Post, here's Gary's Mayor, an Obama supporter:
Gary Mayor Rudy Clay said just now that it might take a while yet to finish counting the vote in Lake County, which includes Gary, and said tonight his city had turned out so overwhelmingly for Barack Obama that it might just be enough to close the gap with Hillary Rodham Clinton.
"Let me tell you, when all the votes are counted, when Gary comes in, I think you're looking at something for the world to see," Clay, an Obama supporter, said in a telephone interview from Obama's Gary headquarters. "I don't know what the numbers are yet, but Gary has absolutely produced in large numbers for Obama here."
Clay said the results were late coming in from Lake County because of the large numbers of absentee ballots that had to be counted -- about 11,000. Under local practice, all of the cartridges from voting machines in Gary and nearby East Chicago are first collected at the local airport before being driven to the county headquarters to be tallied with the results from the rest of the county, he said. He said there were no major technical problems holding up the count.
"It takes a little time. We want to be sure that every vote is counted fair and right," he said. "I just talked to the director out there and they are working like junkyard dogs to get that done as soon as possible. They are taking some time but I told them to do it right. That's what taking the time."
Why did they wait to start counting the absentee ballots?
Here's more:
n March, Clay predicted the race would come down to Gary, telling the Northwest Indiana and Illinois Times that tonight on CNN, "They are going to point at Indiana and say Hillary Clinton is leading by one point but Gary ain't come in yet."
Clay himself was deeply involved in get out the vote efforts this afternoon, going door to door to drum up anyone who hadn't yet voted, he said. A volunteer in the Obama office in Gary said that canvassers who went out today found that in some neighborhoods almost everyone reported having already cast an absentee ballot.
Posted by: Bills | 7 May 2008 16:46:59
Mayor of Gary involved in fraud against Hillary Clinton and voters?
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/5/6/235033/7074
Posted by: Christines | 7 May 2008 16:50:16
Rumour is she has "lent herself" $6million-how exactly can she lend herself money?I know she is a financial whizz,from her options profits while Bill was Arkansas Governor,but lending yourself money?What will she do if she doesn't pay herself back?How will she collect the debt?How does she set the interest rate?Is the loan secured?The questions are endless...
Posted by: C.Elder | 7 May 2008 17:10:50
Obama is a man for the future, I stayed up all night here in the UK, when I heard his speach it brought tears to my eyes. He is such a humbling person,completely selfless, he puts in 110% of him self, when he said it not about Obama, it is about you, infact it is about the whole world, we badly want change, and if we did not need it I would not have stayed up so late. I would like to thank the people of North Carolina all those wonderful people who is able to see further than their nose and care enough about the future of our world and our security and the love of our children & grand children. This change is not just a change for Americans but a valued change for all of us who want peace & persperity in our lives, not just for the few but for the many. Thank you all again the wonderfull loving people of North Carolina. God Bless you.
Posted by: Daphne Kenward | 7 May 2008 17:58:43
The thing that Clinton does not realise you do not need to wake up at 3 am for phone call threatening America or any where else. When the rest of the world don't see America as a great threat to our safety, America will be safer & we will all be safer, while America keeps up theses idle threats to other nations, we will not be safer that is what is fueling TERRORISM America has been seen as the greatest danger to world peace than Iraq Iran Russia, and any where else on earth. Only the Americans have never been allowed to know that. And The whole world wants to live in peace. Many Countries world wide are afraid of America due to its Racist foreign policies. We in Europe have never felt threatened, but many have been concerned about other countries being threatened by America unjustly. Millions marched world wide against the American invasion of Iraq. Because it was unjust and evil, many innocent people of all nationality lost their lives in a war Dick Chaney would not risk his pet dog in. Bush would not have risked Barney his dog in Iraq, but he was willing to send troops in harms way for a pointless worthless excercise in Iraq. This war has almost Bankrupted America brought America into recession, instead of investing in Education health care investing in life, Bush has invested in DEATH & DISTRUCTION. We in the UK have been cursed by our association with these crimes. WE don't want it any more. we want peace happiness & perspority in our country, we want harmony in our hearts and in our lives, we are hard working people in the UK we can't afford for our elected government to keep making bad decisions based on American flawed policies, which has nothing to offer us. We want our TAXES spent on our own people, health Education Transport technology, investments in the future of our country. We do not want our TAXES wasted on the war in Iraq. WE have our own problems here in the United Kingdom, we do not want Americas problems affecting our lives.
Posted by: Daphne Kenward | 7 May 2008 18:26:30
So now the press tells candidates when to quit?
wait, this has been going since early March! arrogant, elitist pundits engaged in a profession that at best was considered a craft and today does not even deserve to be considered.
Posted by: clarlune | 7 May 2008 19:25:12
When some one who is money hungry willing to waste 6 Million of her own money, take it from me she has a hidden agenda. Desperation is one thing when no one see's you as credible to lend you a hand, it could be classified as foolish. Romney spens some of his money but smart enought to know when to quit. Hillaries judgement say it all, wrong on the war, wrong about Obama, wrong about her call 3Am. Wrong about when to get the Hell out. Even all the stupid people who are old uneducated and stupid has even given up on her Dum A..!She is still going what did she not learn at UNIVERSITY that Obama has learnt about simple Math. You would need to be really an idiot to vote Hillary. Hence her following old, un educated.
Posted by: Daphne Kenward | 7 May 2008 20:22:41
Notwithstanding that domestic and international issues favour the Democratic Party, Obama, the likely Presidential nominee, will lose to McCain in November. And the reason will be racial. Never mind that he will lose the South, which votes Republican anyway, and that he will lose, with the possible exception of Minnesota and Illinois, his home state, all the mid-Western states he won in state caucuses, for they also are red states that generally go Republican. Obama may win California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, which usually go Democratic; he may also win Washington and Oregon in the Northwest. His Waterloo, however, will be the rust belt swing states of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The Republicans will savage Obama with racial innuendos and attacks as Hillary never really did. Lower class white working folks of the rust belt swing states simply will not vote for him in sufficient numbers. And that will be the ball game.
It is a pity that at this most inconvenient moment in the history of the US, the Democratic Party, so good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, will have to pay the price for the inability or unwillingness of the county to definitely put its racial house in order, in spite of the Emancipation Proclamation of some 140 years ago and in spite of the Civil Rights movement of forty years ago.
Posted by: Marc A. Loera | 7 May 2008 21:31:06
Obama is a great guy, he has all what it takes to be a leader. Go Obama.
Posted by: Bessong Ernest Arrey | 7 May 2008 22:26:25
I expect a decision to be made over the next few weeks by enough of the renaming super delegates to put Obama over the top and propel him to being the first African-American to receive the nomination as presidential candidate for the Democratic Party.
Unfortaunately, Mr. Obaman will never become President of the United States. Despite the incompetence of the current administration in managing the economy and the war in Iraq, and John McCain's desire to pursue the same absurd fiscal and politcal policies of the Bush cabal, the majority of American voters are white, and will not elect a black man (who is only half black, as if that should matter) to the highest office in the land.
To do so, and this may not be a problem with some whites, is to admit that a non-white person is as capable and intelligent as any white person to lead this country. For most white people, the reality of such an admission is beyond their ability to accept based on their belief in their inate superiorty over blacks.
Why do you think so many Clinton supporters would rather vote for McCain or stay home rather than vote for Obama? Surely it's not because of comments made by a self serving pastor trying to engage his congregation on a Sunday morning with colorful hyperbole or Mr. Obama trying to explain in a compassionate and understanding voice what working class white voters embrace during difficult times. The controversy about his remarks smacks of such hypocrisy by anyone who suggests that when in times of trouble we don't turn to those things that give us comfort and are familiar.
In 50 years, the demographics in this country will change to such an extent that white voters will no longer be a majority of the electorate and I predict we'll have a candidate named Gonzalez clinching the nomination of a major party with a better chance of being elected president of the United States than Mr Obama has in 2008.
Posted by: J Beauchamp | 7 May 2008 22:38:20
excellent work thanks
Posted by: richard dow | 7 May 2008 23:05:26
Notwithstanding that domestic and international issues favour the Democratic Party, Obama, the likely Presidential nominee, will lose to McCain in November. And the reason will be racial. Never mind that he will lose the South, which votes Republican anyway, and that, with the possible exception of Minnesota and Illinois -his home state-, he will lose all the mid-Western states he won in caucuses, for they also are red states that generally go Republican. Obama may win California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, which usually go Democratic; he may also win Washington and Oregon in the Northwest. His Waterloo, however, will be the rust belt swing states of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and Florida. The Republicans will savage Obama with racial innuendos and attacks as Hillary never really has. White working modest class folks of the rust belt swing states, and native Floridian whites simply will not vote for him in sufficient numbers. And that will be the ball game.
It is a pity that at this most inconvenient moment in the history of the US, the Democratic Party, so good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, will have to pay the price for the inability of Americans to put their racial house in order, in spite of the Emancipation Proclamation of some one hundred years ago and the Civil Rights movement of more than forty years ago.
Posted by: Marc A. Loera | 8 May 2008 04:03:06
Obama won't be safe until he gets 2025 delegate votes. The bigwigs of the Democratic party can still swing it for Hillary - and she knows it. Smells like the fix for Bush in Florida, when the Supreme Court sold its soul.
Posted by: Protogodzilla | 8 May 2008 09:24:10
Billary is NOT a Quitter!Remember their scandal-ridden presidency?The lying;cheating;stealing;ducking;diving;weaving;sexual misbehaviour ; hiring;firings;impeachment hearings and so on endlessly....Billary never quit.They won't now either.They will go to the Democratic Convention,where Billary will out-maneuver Obama with a typical back-room deal.It's the Clinton way after all.Politics is a dirty business,and no one does it better than Billary.
Posted by: C.Elder | 8 May 2008 10:46:02
Mrs Hillary Clinton in the end looks to be not that much of a " brand new product " on the american political market as Mr Barack Obamaa ..
Posted by: ussu : consumer´s view | 8 May 2008 10:59:00
Daphne Kenward: Obama is the candidate for those who believe that life is a film by Frank Capra ('Mr Obama Goes to Washington'). Scriptwriters can create a happy ending. It isn't like this in the real world. And it is a mistake to stigmatise those who vote for Clinton as 'old and dumb'.
Posted by: Dectora | 8 May 2008 11:58:35
Simple logic. The clintons belong to the family of the big 5 in the american politics. What Obama has achieved against this family and the very fact that he decided to enter the race knowing that Hillary was in , just shows how determined Obama is. He is tough and believes in competition not favoritism. He believes in reason and judgement. By giving their votes to Obama , the american people have demonstrated that in America you have to work for what you want and through your ability to reason and judge, america cant stand on your way. Now if the americans believe in Obama more than Clinton , i do not see why McCain is going to be a problem for Obama. Its a competition. He has won at home, so lets see if he can win with an outsider ( republican ). The american people have no reason to doubt Obama. He has demonstrated what he is made of.
Posted by: PEDRO DOS SANTOS REAL MANUEL | 8 May 2008 13:22:44
It is deeply regrettable that the first woman would have been the president of ther USA giving justice to half of the society & the female/mom's gender. I wish to see these two great candidates in their own right to be together which will be a sure wqinner in the fall. God bless the wi9sadom to all the stake holders to do the above atated.engineer Ram Bahadur K.C. from the land of Mt. Everest & Lord Buddha. Kathmandu, Nepal.
Posted by: Ram Bahadur K.C. | 8 May 2008 13:52:30
The contest is over. Bill should step in to stop the humiliation of Hilary who has lost all sense of reality and is dreaming for a miracle to happen.It will not for the simple reason that she has been less than honest in this campaign with numerous lies and attempts to use the racial card and thus dividing the country.
Posted by: mauritian | 8 May 2008 15:46:34
Hillary & Bill, more like the HillBillies. Move on this is 2008 the Hillbillies was a Show back in the 60's-70's. The old lady with the crazy voice reminds me of Hillary, Jethrow!.They struck oil, which is what it would take for Hillary & Billary to win.They are so desperate to get on Capital Hill.The House on the Hill, brought in 109 Million US. what will it be this time if only they could get in, 218 Million. 6.4 Million of her own money to secure the prize. The Hillbillies Dynasty. Then Chelsea will have a go, she is in training on the campagne trail, to the gravey train. Only the train has no intentions of stopping. And the people who voted for her she has every intentions of leaving them hi&dry, like a depleated oil well. How dare you say I can't win, the white house is mine! F..k you I am a Clinton, you don't tell me what I can and cant do. I will do anything I will lie cheat and step on who ever it takes to secure my money, you hear me! ah ah ah. Who will have the last laugh I wonder. I don't care about the American people I am worried about my money you hear me, I am worried about my money. If you can only donate 25'000 Us Dollars to the campaign how is it she is allowed to donate 6.4 Million, is something wrong here, no she call's it a loan, how does it work does she charge her self interest? what is the %,in interest over how many years. Why don't she borrow some money from her self and pay up the people whose Hotels she stayed and ate their food for her self and her campagners, and not paid the bill, I am Bill Clintons wife I don't pay, you pay me, well if thats her attitude, I am not surprised people now realise she is the red herring, with a chip on her shoulder. People in West Verginia better ask for their money up front, I know I would.
Posted by: Daphne Kenward | 8 May 2008 19:17:31
I had a lovely dream last night that obama and hilary climbed hand in hand up everest holding the olympic torch, and nothing was ever held of any of them ever again.
then the alarm went off.
Posted by: Stephen | 8 May 2008 19:26:39
one should one's words carefully, apparently
Posted by: Stephen | 8 May 2008 19:32:20
Message from the Strongest supporter of Obama. To Marc A Loera & Dectora, first where do you come from with names like that are you both illegal immigrants in America. If I were you and that is if you are allowed to vote, I would be supporting Obama because he is the kind of man who care about the down trodden. And Obama will win and I feel it more and more, and I hope he will make a great PRESIDENT who stands up for JUSTICE FREEDON LIBERTY, and will make the finest STATESMAN AMERICA HAS EVER HAD.
Posted by: Daphne Kenward | 8 May 2008 19:34:18
All the doubters out there want to cast their minds back on a man who they said would never be free in South Africa, a man they thought could not be President of his own country because of RACISM. That man was Nealson Mandela, he is respected all round the world, and I am also pleased to say we here In the UK will be honnoring his 90th Birthday with a Party in London. I remember the many letters I wrote to our leader regarding these issues of injustice, and we here in the UK did our part to voice the cries for justice, the Americans choose to ignor the issue.It is not impossible for Americans to have a Black President, it is about what a man stands for, not the colour of the mans skin. Many out there the doubters, Nealson Mandella was in Prison for 27 years his only crime wanting justice and freedom for his people and his country. God does not change, Politicans change, god does not change, where Politicans lie God does not lie. God is the same yesterday today and for ever, the god of love and Justice. If I took the same opinions as some doubters out there Black people would still be in Slavery, but there are two types of Slavery, slavery of the mind, and slavery of the body. the worst kind is mental slavery, where a man black or white don't think things can change, a slave to an old system that does not work, and has been proven not to work year in, and year out, so one becomes a slave to a system that does not work for them, or any one else. I am free, and I can think, and I can make decisions based on experience, and known facts, not by hear say and rubbish.
Posted by: Daphne Kenward | 8 May 2008 20:36:42
Where is Colin Powell when we need him?
Racism would not be the central theme in this election campaign if either of the democratic candidates had an ounce of substance. To all of you Hillary or Obama supporters: name one piece of legislation that either of them have passed through congress, let alone initiated. They are telling us how hard they are going to work for the american people. What great ideas they have. The changes(?) they are going to make. What have they been doing?! I can not think of a single thing that Hillary or Obama have done for this country from the Capital. They have not done anything for anyone except themselves. The art they are attempting to perfect is the art of getting elected without merit. Past behavoir is a good indicator of what future behavoir will be.
McCain is really a democrat with an -R after his name. But at least, if you follow politics, you can name the legislation he has his name on.
My views are not unique. They are patently obvious to the vast majority of the american people.
Posted by: JOHN WIMBUSH | 9 May 2008 13:57:27
I always remember what Peter Ustinov said about classifying people by the colour of their skin. Of himself he said, "I am not white, I'm a sickly sort of pink colour." Personally, I don't see Barack Obama as black, but he appears to have skin which is a pale brown colour. Certainly, if one goes to the south of France or Spain, or even here in the UK during the summer months, every day one sees pale-skinned Europeans, despite the best medical advice, lying out in the sweltering sun doing their level best to obtain a skin shade which is darker than that of Senator Obama. Those suntanned Europeans see this dark skin shade which they get from lying in the sun as some sort of badge of honour - how superficial is that? When will we stop being so superficial and judge people for what they are, rather than how they look? Very best of luck to Senator Obama, for his success will be a big step towards ending racial prejudice in the world.
Posted by: Neil | 9 May 2008 14:06:49
The fawning media and press forget one thing. In this entire campaign, Obama has come across as no better than an ordinary, lying politician. I cant think of anyone believing his line that he was not aware of what his pastor thought and preached. He used the church and its network to the fullest extent and then disavowed any knowledge and awareness of the underlying propoganda when it became difficult to ignore or deny. If americans want to elect their next president on the basis of poetry n prose than so be it.....but lets not pretend the man is a visionary or a change agent. He is an elitist who has a patchy record in the senate and has been saving himself for the mother of all races...American Presidency!!! I was extremely disappointed and dis-illusioned in the way he responded to wright's comments. The fault lies with the media as well. They have been fawning over him without realising that is he is untest and unknown commodity. They should have been more circumspect. Guess their hatred for the clintons clouded their vision n judgement completely. I mean his wife states that this is the 1st time she is proud of her country....gimme a break. since when did countries start getting evaluated on the basis of whether it gives a break to my uber deserving hubby!!!!!
Posted by: Rahul | 9 May 2008 14:59:13
Once again, we the American people have backed ourselves into a corner. We never seem to be able to present respectable, honorable candidates for the election process. We dig to the bottom of the barrel and nominate the scum. I am almost tempted to say we deserve what we get; however 8 years of the Bush administration has shown otherwise. I don't care about race, gender or religion. I just want someone we can trust who will turn around our image and economy.
Posted by: Barbara | 9 May 2008 16:40:34
Rasmussen says this party is over.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Posted by: Jerry | 9 May 2008 21:54:08
Neil you, know and I know, a mans colour? what the hell, who cares. I know I don't. Well I told a friend once if it were not colour of skin they would invent another reason other than that. Years ago it was if you were Catholic it was a reason to kill a person who was none Catholic. in Germany it was if your eyes were blue with blond hair you were favoured, if you were Jewish you go to the gas chamber if you were Gypsy, they would invent a reason to hate and kill one another, their fellow man. I think these people who are so full of hate secretly hate them selves.
Posted by: Daphne Kenward | 12 May 2008 18:46:17
West Virginia did not vote FOR Clinton. They voted AGAINST Obama! WV is a very racist state. I know. I was raised in several parts.
Posted by: sher | 15 May 2008 00:17:05
Obama is the only person up for election who has any self respect.
He is a mans man.
Posted by: John Morin | 16 May 2008 01:42:45
With Obama as the president the US will eventualy step in to the 21st Century! Congratulations from Australia!
Posted by: Tosh Dida | 16 May 2008 11:32:22
When all is said and done, the United States of America, will decide who becomes her next President on the basis of he colour of sex and skin colour. Even the USA is not ready to make a woman or man of African descent her President, simple. All the complicated analysis from commentators can be reduced to the fact that the USA is not ready to do the right thing and vote for the right person for the job of President.
Thanks
Posted by: A. Braimah | 16 May 2008 12:29:04
No fear here. It looks quite complicate now, but take my word - Republicans have no chance to win this election. No chance whatsoever... !!! They may bark like a bunch of mad dogs but to no avail. Race, sex.. gender, whatever - it won't help. Nothing will stop Obama to become the President of the US. And of course, Hill & Bill know that Reps have no chance, that's why they push so hard. But again, they too don't have a chance. Congratulations to Barak Obama!!!
Finally someone normal in American politics..
Posted by: Tosh Dida | 17 May 2008 01:34:50
PREDICTION FROM 2010
* Obama’s second year as the president of the US, survived an assination attempt
* Hillary earns millions for a book deal
* Bill earns millions for a book deal on his sexless partnership with Hill
* Chelsea earns millions for a book deal on her life with Mom & Dad
* Dubbya releases his dubious memoirs, goes back to drinking
* Chaney & Rumsfield not sent to the Hague Tribunal for war crimes
* McCain out of politics, undergoes major face & heart surgery
* Israel continues to treat Palestinians in same old fashion
* Palestinians continue with suicide bombings
* Anti-Israel sentiment on rise in Europe
* Nationalism and neo-primitivism in Russia bigger than ever in recent history
* China’s economic boom reaches its peak
* China establishes itself as a super power
* China starts seriously talking to North Korea about its nuclear treats
* China starts negotiating with Iran about their nuclear program
* China challenges US on many expected and unexpected fronts
* China, China, China
* rules the world….
* What about the Climate change?
* Oh yes, Al Gore releases another doco and is narrated by Tony Blair
* Gordon Brown caught in sexual act with Australia’s Kevin Rudd charged for paedophilia
* Nostradamus proved to be wrong, life on planet Earth goes on and on…
Posted by: Tosh Dida | 17 May 2008 08:02:56
The Huffington Post could argue that black is white if it suited Adriana's purpose. Remember that she is a reformed Republican and there's nothing as irritating as a reformed drinker, smoker, converted atheist or, in this case, a political "reformer". I think August may well bring some surprises.
Posted by: David Cunard | 19 May 2008 01:42:22