Travolta Micawber

After a particularly dreadful by-election defeat I recall asking Mike Thomas - the talented former Labour and later SDP MP and one of the best political observers I know - what his strategy was now for the failing Social Democratic Party.

"Travolta Micawber," he replied. Uh?

"Staying alive and hoping something will turn up."

After Crewe and Nantwich Gordon Brown's strategy is Travolta Micawber too.

As the SDP discovered, however, the "staying alive" bit is harder than it looks. So Brown needs to turn his attention to it. He needs to think how he deals with the leadership issue.

A fellow survivor from the top team in the terrible years for the Tories put it rather well to me last night. He said that what we have learned about leadership speculation, the two of us, is that once it reaches a certain point it will always come to a head in some way.

It did in the case of Major, IDS, Kennedy, Ming, Blair. And in the old days it did in the case of Thatcher and, going back a bit, Heath and Wilson.

Oddly Hague isn't on that list. However bad things got, serious leadership speculation really didn't take hold.

So, although the leadership speculation ended differently in different cases, there is always some dramatic, climactic moment.

All Brown can choose is how it comes about. If he doesn't choose (quite likely given his personality) the choice will be made for him. He would be much better deciding for himself how to confront an issue that won't simply go away.

Will it be a resignation (unlikely), a back me or sack me speech (might not be enough), a Major type stand-off (very risky) or a fresh device of his own invention?

Who knows? But it's coming, somehow it's coming. Travolta Micawber won't work without it   

Comments

[Peter Briffa]

If he had any sense he'd announce that he made a mistake not calling for an election last autumn and feels that his authority has gone since then. To rectify it, he wants one now. He knows he might not win, but he'd rather go down honourably than have a terrible defeat in two years' time.

He'd probably lose, but not nearly as much as he will in two years', and if he wins...

However, he won't do this, and Alan Milburn and co will have to stick the knife in. He hasn't got the bottle.

[KWC]

I don't think Brown could re-invent the wheel, let alone invent a new strategy to save his leadership.

[Rob]

The Labour party is now a drifting ship with a drunk one eyed captain, who still think he knows best. Brown is bereft of new policies,has used up all of his independant reviews, everyone now knows these cost alot and never come to a decision. Unfortunately the man is a coward, look at him at P and Q's, he doesnt ever give an answer, and we are going to have to watch as he slowly takes New Labour down with him. Not all bad news then!

[Sue]

What Brown can't overcome is that so many people seem to feel an almost personal antipathy towards him. It's almost impossible for him to turn that round. What I dislike most about him is the contempt he displays towards middle and lower income working people. He thought they could be bought off with the 2p tax reduction, because he regards them as being grasping and solely motivated by money and self interest. But these people are fundamentally decent and fair minded, and didn't like to gain financially at the expense of WORKING low paid people. Brown doesn't understand these people, and Blair did.

[Viktor O. Ledenyov, Kharkov, Ukraine]

The way, Leader deals with the leadership issue, is a key problem, which has to be taken seriously by every politician. It takes enormous amount of energy, natural talent and time to maintain the leadership agenda in constantly changing environment. Leader has to have his own personality and charisma to be able to get the strong support from his/her followers in business or in politics.

[Peter Bolt]

No triumphalism please. Those twin imposters are still alive. The serious bit starts from now.

[Frank Holden]

He is running out of power. He is running out of air. His craft is adrift and and refuses to stabilise. He has no hope of reaching his destination and help is nowhere at hand. The difference between Jim Lovell (Apollo 13) and Gordo the Lost, is that one of them heard the bang and acted upon it, and the other covered his ears and hoped for the best. However, the best that can (now) be hoped for from Gordy's point of view, is a crash landing a very, very long way away from Downing Street.

[Lennart Malmgren, Sheffield]

Brown will never realise that he has to go, which necessitates long knives drawn by influential figures in the Labour party.

However, Brown's position depends now to a large extent of what the really serious contenders for his job (David Miliband, for example) view their chances if they move now and assumes the Premiership under difficult times, including economically. I suspect they would much rather wait until a likely 2010 defeat and let Brown see out his current tenure as a lame duck.

[Marek]

Brown's performance over the first eleven months of his premiership defies belief for its incompetence. He will not resign because he has two years in the bag.

While this state of affairs is not good for the country would it be better if there was a change of leadership and Labour won the next election?

[Richard Guy]

I would like the Times to publish an article that appeared in the New York Times first on June 5th 1981 and agian on September 26 2007. It is an important article about Global Warming and Rising Sea levels. The title is "Jersey Rights to Shore Prove costly to Casinos" The article speaks for itself and then see Google "The Mysterious Receding Seas" and Read Richard Guy,s Book " The Mysterious Receding Seas" Thanks and Cheers

[hubris]

Brown is a dead duck. The only question for Labour now is whether they let Brown drag everybody down with him. If they let it fester till the party conference then the answer is yes. A nice hot summer awaits.

[Anne Smith]

Far better Brown and Labour who have helped the nation by blocking the trap of poverty and abuse that many fell into and have reversed the greed and pompous years of Thatcherism and her thatcherites. How could anyone seriously fall again for the conservatives with *a foot in two camps* a policy that favours the well off that want more and the lowest of the low, leaving the rest of us to pay for it or be abused