Could Jacqui Smith be Leader? It's all about timing

Nick Robinson reports on a flurry of interest in Jacqui Smith as Prime Minister. And the picture he paints is quite convincing:

Who better, goes the theory, than a straight-talking Midlands mum, an Aston Villa season ticket holder, who still holidays in a caravan in North Wales to take on the Tory toff Cameron.

Labour's electoral system tends to favour women. Look at Harriet Harman's surprisingly good performance in the deputy leader contest.

It was exactly this sort of thinking that led me to speculate about Harman as leader a week or so back. Smith is a better guess in theory. She is more widely liked and is even less easy to pin down ideologically than Harman.

Her other advantage is being Home Secretary. But this is a disadvantage too. She is very vulnerable to the ups and downs that those holding high office experience. Timing will be everything.

There are any number of potential leaders whose bids were spoiled by the timing of the contest - from Denis Healey to, arguably, Gordon Brown himself.

Comments

[Andrew Spencer]

She also has a majority of less than 2,000 which makes it extremely unlikely that she would be chosen as leader. Would Labour really want to have their Prime Minister lose her seat?

[AJ]

What a superb idea, I met Jacqui on her visit to my local town during the local Elections.
She would be a super Leader.
SMITH FOR LEADER

[Mike]

Fink : Some small issues with this thesis
- she looks woefully out of her depth as Home Secretary. Can you name something she has successfully done as Home Sec?
- she looks hapless and incompetent in the role, so would look equally incompetent as PM (no change then!)
- she looks nowhere near tough enough to fight it out with the likes of Balls and Milliband for the crown
- she (as many other cabinet members are) is simply a cipher for Brown, chosen for being inoffensive to the public but providing no intellectual competition to Brown, any resistance to his plans, any semblance of independent thought, nor competition for the role of PM
- and not least (as pointed out above), she will lose her commons seat at the next election

[Rhys Jaggar]

It would be a punt, to say the least, based on her experience to date. I suppose Blair had no experience either?

Perhaps that is the agenda of those behind the scenes who work the puppet show?

[Ben Elford]

It speaks volumes about the inadequacy of the present cabinet that anyone could entertain the idea of this lack-lustre Home Secretary as a potential leader. Clutching at straws? They'd do better to clutch at Straw.

I think Nick Robinson must be losing his judgement.

[Roger Angove]

An excellent choice! As one who wants to see the back of Nu-labour in a landslide victory for the Conservative party, I'm 100% in favour of replacing the embarrassing Brown with this talentless woman.Things have to get worse before they can get better! Bring it on (as they say).

[SR]

Good grief. One speech does not a leader make. Mike is absolutely right in his assessment. This sounds very desperate indeed and merely highlights GB's inadequacy that such a pedestrian individual could even be considered.

[mebs]

Absolute rubbish.Labour have become far too arrogant.Look at the state of the uk.Its time for change

[Luke Mitchell]

Jacqui Smith as Labour Leader? Surely you are joking. Only if they want to eliminate any possible chance of winning an election. Try listening to her speaking on the radio! She has not convinced a single person about why we should allow terror suspects to be held for 42 days (or any other number the government thinks up). She would damage the party's credibility beyond repair for an entire generation.

[Susan Carruthers]

I think Smith would be an extremely popular choice and morelikely to get support than Old Etonian Dave Cameron.

[Mike]

God no, we've had more than enough Labour 'dogs' in the cabinet.

[Terry]

Lacks the necessary gravitas and passion for the role in my view, or is it all about dumbing down everything these days. Suddenly there was a Home Secretary called Jacqui; just where did she spring from?

[Matthew Jones]

Yes, as a Conservative, I think this is a great idea. Jacqui Smith IN!

[Liz]

"Who better...to take on the Tory toff Cameron?"

She'd get eaten alive. It'd make PMQs even more entertaining than they are at the moment - Jacqui for PM!

[Roy]

This mediocre, bland Brown puppet, should not have even been made Home Secretary. She's a joke. She is history come the Election. And it's long overdue.

[dave reardon]

Nick Robinson is to interested in sucking up to labour politicians. Its the biggest joke I have ever seen written I will bet anyone anything they like on this joke.

[John Moore]

She seems highly qualified for the job.

She has been a law breaker in that she admits to smoking cannabis.

She is a liar, as shown in her dealings with the police. They could not agree on their pay rise so both parties agreed to BINDING arbitration. However she did not like the outcome and decided that the arbitration was not binding after all and awarded a lower then agreed rise.

She is full of gimmicks in that parents will be held responsible for the behaviour of their offspring and may in some cases be sent to prison. The fact that prisons are bursting at the seams means that serious offenders will have to be released to accommodate these parents.

Yes she is as devious and untrustworthy as all of her New Labour party cabinet rabble.

Get serious, Labour have to go to give the UK a chance to recover from the dreadful mess that they have brought about.

[ian payne]

This woman can't even run law and order in the UK, never mind run the UK !!!!

[Paul]

Has it really come to this? La Smith is just an over-promoted schoolteacher, another NuLab drone whose only advantage is a slighty enhanced common touch. Take that whichever way you like.

[Mikko]

The thought of this utter non-entity becoming PM almost (stress almost) makes me want to keep Brown.

[Balwant Munglani]

She certainly impresses me.

[krishi]

It would be the worst country to live if Jacqui Smith becomes a Prime minister. She should actually be out of the parliament 10 years ago! She is probably the worst politician i have ever known in my life.
Get rid of her!

[prudence eely bond mcguire]

I say bring back Roland Rat!
What a wonderful Labour leader he would be.

[Mike]

Jacqui Smith is a 'lightweight'.

Look at the mess she caused dealing with the pay issue.

[Stuart]

Who the party ultimately selects to replace Gordon Brown, will depend in large part on when the vacancy arises.

If it happens through abdication or assassination before the next election, they will look for someone who is an antidote to Brown's shortcomings, and this may well favour candidates like Jacqui Smith, especially as Labour would be unwise to host a divisive and damaging leadership campaign with an election so near.

If however they replace Brown following an election drumming, then they are likely to need someone to lead the party through the years of opposition, leading up to the next election. This would also lead to a longer and more vicious leadership campaign, which would not suit Jacqui Smith.

Whether this would be the same person who leads them into the next election is optional.

[Matt]

What an excellent idea. We would then know for certain that Nulabour would be consigned to the dustbin of history for a considerable time. SMITH FOR LEADER!!

[Chas]

I think it is a splendid idea. Jacqui Smith is in every way like the deputy head of a not very good primary school somewhere in the Midlands. She has less chance of winning an election than Michael Foot's pet mouse.

They could just as well choose Patricia Hewitt, Dawn Primarolo, Angela Eagle, Hazel Blears, Harriet Harman or Caroline Flint. They are all as cretinously useless as each other, and totally unelectable, to a woman. Just to bring the subject into sharp relief, compare any of the above to our only woman prime minister to date.

Says it all, doesn't it?

[oldasiahand]

Haplessness and incompetence are the sine qua nons for NuLabour leadership. Bring it on!

[Nick Smith]

Big Sister. I hope not!

[Manish Patel]

It's a great idea - anything that will accelerate the implosion of the Labour party gets my vote. Her less then derisory performance in cabinet is testament to how NuLabour gauges progress.

[philip]

A horse's arse is more likely to win Miss World than this unlikely scenario.

[David Moon]

Hasn't the esteemed office of Prime Minister of Great Britain been demeaned and diminished enough already with the succession of nonentities we've had in the role?

[Alex Hazle]

Going all the way to North Wales to challenge the Tory leader seems a bit of a strange choice. Would Jacqui pitching up her caravan to campaign in Cameron's own Oxfordshire constituency not be more productive?

[Paul Linford]

There is certainly something in the theory that the Labour Party might well elect a woman, but if there is a vacancy I think Miliband will certainly stand and I can't really see Smith standing against him.

[Chris K]

Surely Hazel Blears or Dawn Primarolo would be far better choices? Either of these wretched women in power would totally guarantee the destruction of NuLabour.

[sally]

Good grief are we tying our hardest to get the Tories in power now? She would be totally useles, just another power mad ignorant MP from the Labour stables. She ignores her advisory folk and uses knee jerk policies to gain popularity. Please don't give the Tories are free hand in the election Labour and instead pick a decent candidate who isn't struggling to even keep their own seat, never mind keeping their whole Government in power.

[John O]

Brilliant idea! I agree with AJ (12.59)and Roger(05.57). Bring her on!! If Brown can't finish off Labour's prospects, then who better qualified (NOT to say talented) than Smith to end 13 years of wasted opportunity.

[judy]

I think this should read...does anyone want to see her as leader? I certainly don't. She comes across as a frumpy, toe the party line type and does the country really need that?

[Gaz]

I am almost speechless that someone could even think that Jacqui 'Oops, I fell in the deep end and I actually have to do something' Smith could make PM. It is becoming increasingly amusing to watch the 'lost beagle' look on Gordo's face. He is way out of his depth (but not as much as 'DeepEnd' Smith) and finally realising there is a bit more to it than fake smiles.

[Helen Harrison]

If we want our children bio-chipped and our houses bugged then yes, by all means, Jacquie should be the next PM.

[Duncan Smith]

As a resident of Jacqui Smith's constituency, I can say as someone who would never vote Conservative that I would also be forced to not vote Labour if she ever became leader. She has done nothing for Redditch, hence her small majority, and as Home Secretary her support for 42 days detention has been appalling. An awful woman.

[Nick Barton]

Jacqui Smith has proved her ineptitude to such an extent that she would be a disaster for the party.

That her name is even being raised shows the paucity of choice that the Labour party has.

Blair showed that you could get elected purely on spin and charisma but Jacqui Smith has no appeal and all the PR wizards in the world couldn't make her an acceptable face.

[Beatrice Benjamin]

NULabour as are desparate to get as many children into Eton and when one boy gets into politics, he is called a Toffee nosed Toff, Make up your mind Jacqui Smith.

[mary,smoker,voter]

Oh no. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[David Hall]

Oooooo I have been away for a bit and missed this choice bit of nonsense. JS as PM?

Bwahahahahahahaha!!! But wait, No! I mean yes, bring her on!! Labour would then been doomed to the wilderness for at least two generations.

She is a wholly unfit for a cabinet role IMHO, being a toady, a liar and a coward. Just like the rest of the Brown crew then

[christophe]

I think Ms Smith showed a disgusting disregard for democracy when she reclassfied cannabis back up to a class B drug in June(?) 2008. 20/23 of the committee (consisting of professionals, mainly doctors and scientists) voted against the idea yet still Smith pressed ahead with her charlatan agenda. To be honest if I want my democracy undermined I'll move to the USA. I am liberal/leftist and I think Labour need to seriously buck their ideas up. However, I also believe the next election is 'the one to lose'; whoever has to deal with the tightening global situation is going to have a hard time in government!

[Sally N]

In my opinion if David Milliband had a little more wisdom than he has exhibited thus far then he should be wholeheartedly endorsing Jaqui Smith as the next leader. Labour will almost certainly lose the next election whoever is in charge - does he want it to be him? Ms Smith would be certainly be a contrast to David Cameron at PMQs and young Mr Milliband would have four years to hone his skills and groom his supporters ready for the next election. He needs to learn how to bide his time, not let snipey comments escape into the press which make him look more vindictive than strong. Jaqui Smith might even do quite well, heaven knows, but it is the election after the next one that the Labour Party need to be preparing for.

[Gwyn]

Whatever you think about Jacqui Smith, there is no need to refer to her as a dog. As Harriet Harman said while she (very ably) stood in for Gordon Brown while he was on holiday, sexism remains rife in this country and,sadly, women continue to be judged on their personal characteristics rather than on the quality of their achievements.