The five sexiest ideas in politics
Yesterday the Sunday Times twigged to the idea of social norms.
The article wasn't quite right. They ascribed David Cameron's interest in that topic to a new book called Nudge by Sunstein and Thayler - when in fact it came from Robert Cialdini's book Influence.
But it was still an important piece.
The Sunday Times is very good at spotting intellectual trends. When they print an entire piece on some new thinking, it is an important sign that a change is taking place.
In a nutshell, thirty years ago there was a intellectual revolution centred on economics. Now the change in the debate is being powered by social psychology.
It helps explain how we can change society without increasing burdensome regulation.
Here are five of the hottest intellectual ideas now making an impact on politics. Dry as they sound, they are the sexiest ideas on the political scene:
1. Social Norms: This is based on a simple observation - people copy each other. We take cues from others in our peer group about how to behave. This is a more powerful social force than legal restrictions. Could we, for instance, increase the amount given to charity simply by telling people how much more everyone else is giving? Want to know more? Read Influence by Robert Cialdini, Herd by Mark Earls and The Nurture Assumption by Judith Rich Harris or my article.
2. Reciprocal Altruism: Why do we help those who are not blood relations? Surely this wouldn't be a good evolutionary strategy? Well, it turns out that it is. We help others because we believe they will reciprocate. In order for this to work, game theory demonstrates, we have to believe we will be interacting with the same people repeatedly. Reciprocal altruism makes the argument for strengthening local institutions. Want to know more? Read The Oakshott lecture by David Willetts, and Natural Justice by Ken Binmore or my article.
3. Situationism: Is there such a thing as society? It is not just reciprocal altruism that shows that there is. It is also situationism. People behave differently when in different situations. They conform to expectations and group norms. Individuals have different dispositions but this is only part of the reason they behave as they do. Phil Zimbardo's famous Stanford prison experiment, while hardly a conclusive scientific experiment, showed how telling individuals they were guards or prisoners changed the way they behaved. This idea is, for instance, helping change Tory ideas on crime. Want to know more? Read The Lucifer Effect by Philip Zimbardo or my article.
4. Prospect Theory: Thirty five years ago, innocent A level economics students would ask their teachers "but what if the consumer isn't rational?". It would patiently be explained to them that rationality was a modelling assumption, that could very easily be relaxed. It turns out that relaxing the assumption has produced the most interesting work in economics over the last three decades, winning a Nobel Prize for Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Prospect theory considers how people actually make decisions. It looks at, for instance, the ways people weigh up risks. It leads to a richer understanding of the way consumers respond to the design of policy. Want to know more? Read Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely and Nudge by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein or my article.
5. Cognitive Dissonance: In 1957 the psychologist Leon Festinger first put forward this idea explaining how people cling on the commitments they have made, twisting the truth round in their head to make it consistent with their existing view. Its importance for social policy is that individuals try incredibly hard to fulfill commitments they have made, verbally or in writing. Particularly when made in public. Cognitive dissonance is part of the reason why married couples stay together (in order to make good their commitment). Want to know more? Read Yes! by Noah Goldstein, Steve Martin and Robert Cialdini and When Prophecy Fails by Leon Festinger or my articles on political strategy and marriage.
