Is tonight the night for Obama?

Will Obama go over the top tonight?

That means getting more than 2,118 delegates. Here's what Real Clear Politics has to say:

Obama is currently 42 delegates short in the RCP count (and a bit less in the Obama campaign's own count). Between Montana and South Dakota there are 31 delegates up for grabs tonight, and according to estimates if Obama wins 55-45 this evening the delegate split will be in the 17-14 range, plus or minus.

That means Obama will need about 25 supers to declare for him today in order to claim victory tonight. (And remember, supers from MI and Fl only count for half a vote).

That seems like a fairly tall order - though certainly possible - and as Adam Nagourney [New York Times] reports today, the Obama campaign has been trying to organize a show of force to try and put him over the top.

RCP thinks it's tight. I'd say there's every chance he'll do it. Once he's that close, supers thinking of going with him, will scramble to be the one that puts him in the hot seat.

If I had to guess, I'd say tonight's the night.

Comments

[Expat Mum]

As I write, the super delegates are scrambling to line up behind him and rumours abound that Hillary is prepared to accept the VEEP position. Talk about willing something to happen. Tonight has been the night for Obama for a few weeks now, and everyone, including Hillary, knew it.

[Karl Fenwick]

Obama has won this battle but he must ensure that he wins the war. The danger is he has beaten Clinton as the popular choice for his party but defeated his party by winning. It’s such a difficult situation, is America ready for a black president or a female president? They are both radical propositions but a hugely better alternative to the republican option which is in tatters. Amazing times ...

[Andrea Davis]

I live in Portland, Oregon where we welcomed Barack with 81,000 people earlier this month.
America is proud to say, Barack Hussein Obama is the next President of the United States! We are all thrilled to death, you have no idea how horrible it's been the last 7 1/2 years here.
God Bless Barack

[Nina Gunnell]

I don't think the question should be is America ready for a female or black president. Is America ready for change? Because we sure do need it. I also think of all of the different countries we deal with, and the majority of them would not have an issue dealing with a black man. So why should we? Now, dealing with women for them might be something different since many of them are at the bottom of the totem pole. I think that Americans just need to accept people for people and look deeper than color. The shade a person is does not dictate who they are on the inside. I had one child tell me that being a different color is just like wearing different shoes. I wish all of America had the same outlook.

[David Aneju]

It is wair to read from some Americans painting and pushing cards of racisms in this 21st centuary. People should grow up from archaich understanding of life to modern reality of life. The choice of Barack Obama should not be based on colour or ethnic background but on what he has to offer. Barack Obama was born and bred up in America. Why should he not have equal right with his 'white' counterpart. Opportunities nowadays are given to those who can perform bestand increase profit. The make of Obama to make it to the White House will be a history re-written and sure indication that every John and Harry can reach any hight if determine to. It is high time we changed political arena from oligarchy system to democratic sytem. You do not have choice over your birth but let us give room to one having anple choice in life.

[tingoo FROM U.K.]

What change will Obama bring?
Time will prove how USA will be ruined by his leadership and then when he makes mistakes people will regret.
So
At a time like this, USA needed someone totally grounded like HILLARY R CLINTON...........who is substance over matter!!!!!!!!!!!

OBAMA IS ONLY A KID!!!!!!!!!!!!

[John]

Despite some bad racial stuff in the States, it's still a country where you can come from nowhere and be somebody. The army, State Department and governer of New York to name three, are areas where blacks and females have excelled.

Race is still paramount in the US but we're decades behind here in the UK when it comes to giving people a chance.

[Murali]

Dear Sir / Madam,
I believe that Senator Obama is the best candidate to be the next President of the United States of America. But, are the American people ready to have a gentleman, who is an African American to be the next President of their country. The answer seems no, based on history, and logic, but time will be the judge. Nevertheless, I must congratulate the American people to have gone this far, as I cannot envisage any other European country, or country, where European rule dominates, to have gone this far. History has taken place, and God Bless the United States of America for at least going past racism to this point. The real test is to be seen in the next stage, but it is a very fine achievement for the United States to have progressed on a positive footing, from a race relation’s perspective thus far.
Yours Faithfully,
Murali.