Why John McCain has jumped ahead

So John McCain is ahead. How did that happen?

The conventional wisdom says it's simple - Palin. But I actually think it is a little more complicated than that.

There were two reasons to select Palin (if you accept the idea that it was more than just a blind reckless gamble). The first is that she sewed up the base allowing McCain to run as an independent. The second is that she is mischaracterised as a traditional conservative and is properly seen as a public service McCainiac.

Either of these or both may be true.

Whatever the case may be, the change in McCain's campaign since he announced her arrival is striking.

Before last week he appeared stuck in a rut. He was running a dreary and conventional Experience v Obama the celebrity. I was sure this would not work.

Now he has changed tack. Take a look at this remarkable, perhaps game changing new campaign ad:

So the Republican candidate advertises that he and his running mate have taken on Big Pharma, Big Oil and, er, the Republican Party. This was obviously the right way to go. But it needed two things - guts and the ability to square the party. Suddenly the McCain campaign has got both.

It's not just the ad.

Jay Cost notes that McCain's speech was unconventional too. While most commentators noted that it was flat, Cost argues both that it had its moments and that its message was right.

I still think Obama is slightly the more likely to win, but with this new campaign message McCain now has a shot.

Comments

[Jan]

Her speech was a breath of fresh air instead of the usual hot air.
Finally, a politician that you could almost trust.

[Richard Young]

Whoa, whoa, wait a minute. Is this the same Daniel Finkelstein who was telling us a few months back, during the primaries, that McCain wasn't really a maverick? Slagging off your own party is probably a good call at this point given what a mess the current White House Republican has made, but I'm detecting some heavily partisan reporting on McCain now that's he's the GOP candidate. The ad is awful too. It's like a trailer for a Hollywood action movie. It's depressing either way: are the US population so gullible that they'll fall for Palin's dubious credentials based on some nice "thumbs up" shots? Or is it that they'll choose to vote for the ticket thanks to a gravelly voice-over artist selling them like they're Dirty Harry? She's untested and he's over the hill. Either way, it's bad news...

[E PRYOR]

McCain is actually standing in the way of her being elected President, she is magic, dont analyse that ingredient try a spectrometer test Brown as Zero, Pallin off the chart.

[Bob]

It's just great that McCain/Palin want to reform the allegedly corrupt Republican party.

Just how does that play with the electorate, exactly? Wouldn't the best way to reform the GOP be to simply boot them out?

[Victoria]

"Her speech was a breath of fresh air instead of the usual hot air.
Finally, a politician that you could almost trust."

Are you sharing the weed she admits to smoking?
Do some research on her and see if you feel the same.

[BCS]

I suspect that the Palin selection far from beng inconsistent with the earlier campaign against Barack Obama's character, is entirely of a piece with it. The the demonisation and pillorying of Obama focused not so much on his inexperience but on his supposed elitist liberalism. It Thus it represeted a new outbreak of the culture wars. The Palin pick, of course, by thrusting into the limelight a figure who personifies the conservative faction in this cultual struggle, serves (surely intentionally) to intensify it. An embittered Democrat would argued that this is the trick the Republicans have pulled - with remarkable success - at election after election since the 60s. It seems, rightly or wrongly, to be working yet again.

[Jim D]

More then even odds today. With the addition of Sarah Palin people have taken a look at what change means. Substance and history of effort are now truly up for debate. Each candidate will need to state what they have done and what they are going in specific terms for the country. Adding Biden to the ticket was ment to shore up Obamas lack of experience. Sorry it didn't work.

I look forward to the debates where the teleprompters are off. Obama doesnt stand a chance.

[EuroAm]

Showmanship replaces Statesmanship, sadly, effectively.

[Angela]

Except that she didn't write the speech. She was just regurgitating what she was spoon fed. She said what was written for her to say. What's to trust about that? The speech was written intentionally to portray a certain image. An image that they hope will sway people who can't see thru it.

[Greg]

You seem to have forgotten to mention that the ad posted on this page peddles a bare-faced lie as truth: The assertion that Palin opposed the famous "Bridge to Nowhere".

It is extensively documented that she, on the contrary, campaigned FOR the bridge, only for funding to be denied by Congress.

Wasn't this worth mentioning?

[vote john mccain]

vote john mccain

[vote john mccain]

john mccain presient of the free usa

[Lisa]

It's because suddenly he's been getting all kinds of media coverage/free advertising.

Nobody in the media seems critical of the fact that neither of these candidates made any policy statements at the convention.

BTW, Palin said she saved the Alaskan taxpayer a bunch of money. Really? I'd like to know who she means by the Alaskan taxpayer, since residents of Alaska pay no state sales or state income taxes. In fact, they get a dividend each year from the state, which comes from---->revenues generated by taxing the oil taken out of state by the big oil companies!

Palin has been governor of a state whose economic interests are exactly aligned with those of 'big oil' and with OPEC nations.

Why hasn't the press mentioned this? Afraid you're going to 'lose access' if you're critical of the candidates?

That's only going to happen if you continue to 'play nice' instead of doing your jobs as the 'fourth estate'.

[Victor]

Mrs Obama was recently in Nm speaking with military spouses in Santa Fe, I would like to know how many of the spouses were of the active duty full time side and how many were of the national guard side.

[Bob Evans]

To suggest that Palin is the reason McCain has surged into the lead denies the historical reality that ALL candidates in the past have benefited from an average 7-point jump after their party convention. This time around, Obama failed to reach that level, while McCain exceeded it. Some of the excess may have be attributable to Palin, but certainly not all.

[Rene']

I hope and pray that Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin win the election. That's all I can say.
I want them to win. I think they're who America Needs. I think they have our best interest at heart.

[matty]

McCain has a shot? he will win. Ibama has no clue how to respond to Palin. Obama's winning formula was his personal narrative which has now been nullified by Palin.

[Andrea]

Oh my McCain's speech was beyond boring an redundant. Fight, defend, fight defend, fight fight defend, love this country fight defend. His speech went over like a lead balloon.

[lawhite]

Obama's message of change involved a socialistic bent that disturbed most of us. Without knowing anything about him, he was portrayed by the media as the Chosen One, but with no substance that we could grab onto. He changed his mind so often that we knew he wasn't speaking his truth, just portraying what he thought we wanted to hear. Typical politics but in a deeply disturbing way. His past as an Illinois senator suggested some serious shady dealings with known crooks, but nothing we could prove, just vague evidence and associations.
McCain was seen as a boring politician in a year when his party was in big trouble. Bush is probably the most unpopular president we've ever had, and a total disaster to both the nation and his party. McCain tried to convince us he would not be the same, but it was hard to believe him. He had some reputation for anti-corruption and a maverick from his party, but nothing major.
Between the two of them, it was voting between the bad and the worst of the two. I didn't want Obama, but voting for McCain wasn't too exciting either.
Suddenly Palin comes to the scene like a breath of fresh air. We knew the minute he picked her that there WOULD indeed be change from Bush, and in a way we wanted change, not in a socialistic way represented by Obama. She and McCain both wanted corruption rooted out and a return to fundamental values like self-reliance, freedom from big government spending and control over our lives, and a return to honoring our constitutional rights.
Palin says it like she sees it, a rare thing in a politician. She doesn't owe anyone political favors...she got to where she is on her own and not from shady deals to get there. She really IS a new phenomenon on the political scene! She IS heartland America and moves us deeply. We have hope that our government will respond to us again and bring us back to what made us great. This may be more than can possibly ever be delivered, but it is a hope and is a start in the right direction.
That's what Palin means to us.
After weeks of mudslinging and stupid rumors (her 4-month-old son is really her daughter's who is 5-months pregnant???), Palin has stood up to intense scrutiny. The most they can come up with is that she thought her brother-in-law was dangerous with a gun, her daughter is pregnant, and she might have changed her mind about a bridge. 80% of Alaskans love her, and now so do we.
Does this explain why?

[Steve]

The introduction of Sarah Palin into the mix will justify fudging the poll numbers to make this race look neck and neck, since Obama had popularity, now Palin brings some to McCain.

With polls roughly even it makes it easier to explain the rampant vote manipulation that will take place again in Ohio and Florida, thus giving the win to McCain.

God help America and the rest of the world.

[guy budziak]

What a sad, sorry state of affairs. As an American I feel as if I lived the past eight years under a dark cloud. And now if the Republicans have their way an even darker one looms on the horizon. The pure vitriol in Palin's acceptance speech made whatever credibility she might've had irrelevant. Not a doubt in my mind there was a Wizard of Oz behind the curtain (Rove) propelling her message forward. And the GOP constituents really think that McCain/Palin represents change? Woe is this country. Those who don't learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them. Seems I recall learning as a child in school about decorum, carrying yourself and communicating in a dignified and thoughtful way. The Republican Convention proves that all that's out the window. God help us all.

[Ian Thompson]

A bit of a laugh that Richard Strange says that Palin is 'untested'. She's a Governor and so has political management experience, so has McCain - Obama is just a junior Senator - no responisbilities just law-making

[Ian Thompson]

Rampant voting manipulation, Steve. You seem to forget that this all started in Florida because Gore's lawyers wanted to just recount in Gore strongholds in Florida and nowhere else - that's manipulation!

[Andrew Foster]

I watched te Republican convention here in the UK,I thought Palin`s speech was beath taking and completely refreshing,McCain was physcally lifted by her presence,a young Thatcher in the making.I hope that both Palin an McCain can maintain a tact of "straight talking" and forget about the "polictical correct" approach to Washington when they both arrie victorious.

[Scott]

To the clown who made the charge that americans wont vote for Obama because of his skin colour...well you couldnt be further from the truth.

The reason americans wont vote for Obama is not because of his skin colour but because once you dig under the teleprompter you will find nothing of substance.

Then again, can someone explain to me how black people voting for Obama simply because of his skin colour ISNT racist? Or is racism only practice by white people?

[Canuck Bob]

Please please please vote for Palin/McCain. The opportunities to mock, scoff, chortle and guffaw are sure to be limitless. Palin's like dumb Dan Quayle with a cherry on top.

What a choice of candidates! Thank God we've got The Queen.

NB 'Bunch' is not the only collective noun.

[Jamie]

We're doomed!! We're all going to die, we are all going to die in the Bush/McCain oil wars!

[FR]

Thank you America for your continued stupidity as it continues to make me laugh even in times of financial unstability.
I hope MCCain wins. America can't handle smart people running the country.
After all John Stewart and Steve Colbert maybe out of a job if that happens because there won't be anyone to make fun of

[David]

Richard Young: Please explain to us the qualifications and experience Obama has for the Presidency. He benefitted (personally and professionally)from the corrupt Chicago political scene (remember Rezko?), was a small time state legislator, and a US Senator for an extremely short period. Foreign policy or executive experience? nil. He has shown no independent judgment, and merely parrots the hackneyed party line while offering America nothing other than a failed socialist agenda. His perspective on the world and his country is at once both insular and naive. His thought, demeanor, and character are best characterized as jejune, and American enemies would be delighted by his elevation to the most powerful office in the world. Great credentials?

And FR, for castigating the American electorate as stupid, you could at least demonstrate some intelligence in your use of syntax: the correct phrase is not "financial unstability," but "financial instability." Perhaps you should check your own IQ before disparaging others'.

[Scott]

FR - A smart guy like you? The correct word is instability, not unstability

[Naleen]

Yeah, how is she going to deal with 635 congressman/women & 100 senators from different part of the country with very different interests and ideas. This is not Alaska or her small town city council. I would question not only that but her policies. How about sex education in public schools? Her daughter is the prime example of why her policy of Absence does a disservice to society because it does not teach kids about how to protect themselves if they do engage in sexual activity. Her environmental record is bad. Her energy policy is ridiculous and will not have any substantial impact on relieving our dependence on Oil or lead to cheaper gas prices or clean up our environment. McCain and Palin want to give Oil Companies tax break during a time when they are making record profits while regular Americans are paying higher energy prices without tax relieve, which are going mostly to the rich.

[Roxan]

what will Palin do when McCain who with Kennedy concocted an amnesty bill (the McCain/Kennedy) bill to amnesty all those illegal aliens? What does she think about the Keating 5? What will she do if McCain goes into Iran?

Both Obama and McCain are working for the CFR (Council on Foreign Relations). They are the reason we keep "holding our noses and voting for the lesser of 2 evils." Is anybody happy with the choices provided by the CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) over the years? They don't have the average legal citizens best interests in mind.

[Daphne Kenward]

Too many crooks in the Republican party, is enough of a reason they want to hype up McCain & Palin. Incase under Democrats what they did to Bill Clinton, may happen to G W Bush & his cronies. And Rove who is under investigation anyway.

[lewisd]

My dear Scott let me just
remind you that black people throughout history have voted for white presidential candidates.This is the first time blacks have had the opportunity to support a black candidate. But don't forget that many blacks had also voted for and supported Hillary Clinton.

Bill Clinton was named the first black president remember?

Black people, when it comes to electing a president, might prefer someone who looks like them not because they are racist but because they feel that person can better identify with their plight or as they say, "Someone who has walked in their shoes" and knows what its like to be a black person living in a white society.

So please, don't call us racist just because we want to see history being made. If the cards were turned you'd feel the same way, I'm sure.

[Fred]

Talk about experience. George Bush can not claim to have acquired any after 8 wasted years. Sara Palin his replacement has consistently made the same speech over and over again. What is the big deal with her?

[HARRISON]

This election is very interesting. Mccain the Chamelon. You never know what snakes are up to. For those that are dum you fall for the trick. This election is all about deception and demise. People please think for yourself don't be stupid.

[Ed]

THe reason McCain/Palin is now ahead of Obama may have to do with voters finally realizing that Obama lacks intelect and experience, and is a liar. Remember, it's Obama that was running around claiming there were 58 states in the USA and that you could fix the energy crisis by inflating your tires. He's also the same guy who made up that story about his uncle liberating a concentration camp during WWII...yet he never had a brother, uncle, or other relative fight in WWII!

[Debo Hobo]

Um she needs to stay at home and take better care of those five kids she has. She is not even capable of running a value oriented home; her kids are running wild in the streets. And I say if you can't run your own home you definitely can't run a country.

[Neidaliz Cruz]

My vote is for McCain/Palin

Citizen affiliated to the Democratic Party

[Matt]

Sarah Palins speech was prepared by someone else (probably Rove). What could possibly be breathless about that. She has no real experience, other than being pregnant often and raising children, and mayor of a small town in Alaska. She is not approved of by 80% of the Alaska population, where are those figures coming from. As some one who works in Alaska I am not hearing that high a percent, probably closer to 50%. That is largely due to Alaska being a RED state (I assume they are referring to socialism since they redistribute the wealth to the people). And as far as Governor, Alaska has a population of less than a million, and billions in reserve funds. How does that reality compare to Washington where She would govern hundreds of millions, and have deficits of hundreds of billions. Two different realities with no common ground. She states she is only running for VP but the reality is McCain is up there in age and has already suffered cancer related problems numerous times. It is not unlikely that he might pass away during the stress of being President, leaving an untested, evangelical with ties to Big Oil as President. Sounds like the last 8 years to me.

[A. Holguin]

McCain/Palin is our ticket to the White House. They have shown tremendous strength in their convictions and values. McCain/Palin are true examples of governing the nation with a "servant's heart". These candidates are not interested in being "Politically correct". Experience has nothing to with the abilty to perform the job responsibilties; but rather accoutability to the people of this great nation and most importantly to GOD!!!!

[Rob]

Lots of upward-thumbs, big slogans, the normal election guff.

Perhaps, in this new vein of trust and openness, they should try a more honest slogan:

'Maverick McCain, Maverick Palin: finally, a publicly acceptable reason for not electing the black candidate'.

Sadly, this seems to be at the root of the Republican campaign. It's been reported across the world that McCain didn't even know his running mate before picking her, let alone have any reason for putting his faith in this former mayor of nowhere. And during the recent upturn in Republican polling, there has not been a solitary policy announcement which could so dramatically change a campaign.

Rather, the selection of McCain, and subsequent campaign change, revolves around image and image alone. No doubt for some voters, the fact that McCain's running mate is female is reason enough to swing the vote - but enough to create such a large swing? Other elections that have had both male and female candidates do not even begin to back that up.

A conservative swing, perhaps? If so, why is McCain the presidential candidate, as opposed to a Romney or a Huckabee?

Throughout the primary campaign, Obama was warned against large numbers of voters who would vote against him because of the colour of his skin, but who would never publicly admit it. The selection of Sarah Palin has added to grist to their mill, and, alas, it seems so much of the US, north, south, east, west, remains at the beck and call of a quietly vicious racist undercurrent.

This is not to say that either Ms Palin or Mr McCain are themselves racist; but they know full well that an awful lot of deeply prejudiced voters will be backing them, and will take any reason whatever to not have to vote for a non-white candidate.

[Lie, Liberal, Lie]

Demolefties - be afraid, be very afraid of Palin/McCain. You just don't get it - but the American people do. Listen.... that's the sound of Obama campaign self-destructing.

[Rebecca]

LEWISD

"Black people, when it comes to electing a president, might prefer someone who looks like them not because they are racist but because they feel that person can better identify with their plight or as they say, "Someone who has walked in their shoes" and knows what its like to be a black person living in a white society.

So please, don't call us racist just because we want to see history being made. If the cards were turned you'd feel the same way, I'm sure."

So I guess all women should go out and vote for McCain-Palin just so history could be made??

Oh pleaseeeee. And whilst we're on the subject of racism. You might want to read the following article where Obama called his grandmother a "typical white person". Then tell me what you think he believes a "typical white person" to be?

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/21/ferraro-offended-by-comparison-to-pastor-wright/

[Dave Livingston]

Although, or perhaps because, I'm not a Republican I don't buy into the majority of complaints about the Bush presidency. For one thing, he's done the most important job for which he was hired(elected). That is he as Commander-in-Chief has kept the U.S. safe from attack since 9/11/01.

History will treat him well.

[Redlum]

gosh some of you people here need to go back on your meds. "Living under a dark cloud?" "A darker cloud on the horizon? "We're doomed?" Get a grip. Libs and dems forget that congress is being controlled by their own party. Hello! And they have lower rating the Bush ever did. All this whining. Can't you guys save it for group?

[JIMME BIGGS]

Lewisd don't say that Bill Clinton is black. Some of the reason of us to vote for Barake is because he is the first black people for president and if you say Bill Clint is then some people might not vote for him because hes not the first. Anyway Bill Clinton isn't black he is white. We are having enough problems so don't spred faulse rumors because people will know. Jimme Biggs

[Cindy]

For the 1st time in my life (I'm 49) I will vote! I never voted because there was nobody "worth" going out to vote for. Finally, someone like Sarah Palin has came along and given me a 'reason' to vote. I personally know quite a few other's, who feel exactly as I do and will vote for their 1st time too! McCain/Palin will shake up Washington and the "Good Ole Boy" system that's destroyed the good old USA! Sarah is truly a breath of fresh air, down to earth, like the rest of us. Obama's absolutely does not have the experience or substance to pull this country out of the nose dive, it's in. Where as the McCain/Palin ticket have everything this great country needs as Leaders. Obama is a empty suit. It was very clear that his "Lipstick" comment was meant for Sarah, this has really made me see his 'true color"!

[CMartel2]

"Except that she didn't write the speech. She was just regurgitating what she was spoon fed. She said what was written for her to say. What's to trust about that? The speech was written intentionally to portray a certain image. An image that they hope will sway people who can't see thru it."

Hahaha! Have you ever seen Obama off a teleprompter? He looks like George W. Bush, bumbling, stuttering, and frequently going off course. And what has Obama been about other than gimics and images? Hillary Clinton pounded him for his lack of substance and image-driven campaign. The man may be the single most shallow candidate I've ever seen run for President.

[Mike S]

Do people really think that Palin is a breath of fresh air.

She seems another untrustworthy politico to my mind

[Dave C]

Bob, it is not the GOP that needs reforming. It is the federal government that needs reforming. The point made by reminding everyone that McCain and Palin both have taken on their own party is to reinforce the idea that they represent the TRUE change Americans want in Washington. To hell with party loyalty - give the government back to the people! Eliminate the waste, return our money to us, and get out of the way of business growth.

[Dave C]

LewisD, it is absolutely racist to vote for someone simply based on the color of their skin. Once blacks become Americans rather than African-Americans we will see real unity.

[Julia Iskandar]

Like other ruthlessly self-centred politicians from Alcibiades (Ancient Athens) onwards, and like Dubya and McCain, Palin is using one of the oldest tricks in the book to get her own way:

1. “Everything is always all about me, especially when it isn’t, and others get the attention which I think is my due,

2. If I shout loud enough and long enough, I’ll get my own way, just like I always did from toddlerhood,

3. If I lie and misrepresent; if I smear and/or ruin others, I can do so with impunity “because I meant well”, and I like my own cruelty A LOT; it feels so good,

4. Other people are accountable, but me - Never: I was born “to get away with it”; I have such a good opinion of myself that I should really be like God, omnipotent and omniscient, and I am nearly there already...

5. Therefore, I am entitled to destroy the competition, or try to, by going on the rampage any way I want...I am ENTITLED, ENTITLED, ENTITLED!”

Looks like Antisocial Personality Disorder to me.