David Cameron's strategy and why it will work

So Roxy Music has faded out, David Cameron has kissed Samantha, headed back to London down the motorway. The conference season is over, what has changed?

In the Mail this morning, it is clear they think they know.

They have gathered up their chips and put them back on red again. Not content on the tonking they got last time, they are back in the Brown camp, with all their father of the nation stuff.

Ben Brogan explains that the next election is back in the melting pot and the leader column suggests that the Tory conference should have been called off, being such a waste of time.

So are we all about to go Browntastic?

No.

David Cameron's speech demonstrated that he has made a strategic choice - he is going to fight experience with change. And this strategic choice is the correct one.

This election will not be fought in the middle of a crisis. It will be fought in the depressed aftermath that results from the crisis. The politics of these two moments are quite different.

In a crisis people will be small 'c' conservatives, clinging to experience. They fear losing what they have got. But the literature on loss aversion suggests that in the depressed aftermath, when things are already bad, they will take a risk, and plump for change.

So even if I were inclined to believe that the electorate are willing to give Brown a second chance - which I am not - I don't think Labour can win using experience against change.

The only question left is whether voters will trust Cameron's Tories with change. A conference speech isn't going to make much difference to that. But Cameron showed, with great verve and confidence, that he knows how to frame the argument.