David Cameron's strategy and why it will work

So Roxy Music has faded out, David Cameron has kissed Samantha, headed back to London down the motorway. The conference season is over, what has changed?

In the Mail this morning, it is clear they think they know.

They have gathered up their chips and put them back on red again. Not content on the tonking they got last time, they are back in the Brown camp, with all their father of the nation stuff.

Ben Brogan explains that the next election is back in the melting pot and the leader column suggests that the Tory conference should have been called off, being such a waste of time.

So are we all about to go Browntastic?

No.

David Cameron's speech demonstrated that he has made a strategic choice - he is going to fight experience with change. And this strategic choice is the correct one.

This election will not be fought in the middle of a crisis. It will be fought in the depressed aftermath that results from the crisis. The politics of these two moments are quite different.

In a crisis people will be small 'c' conservatives, clinging to experience. They fear losing what they have got. But the literature on loss aversion suggests that in the depressed aftermath, when things are already bad, they will take a risk, and plump for change.

So even if I were inclined to believe that the electorate are willing to give Brown a second chance - which I am not - I don't think Labour can win using experience against change.

The only question left is whether voters will trust Cameron's Tories with change. A conference speech isn't going to make much difference to that. But Cameron showed, with great verve and confidence, that he knows how to frame the argument.

Comments

[Johnny Fiston-Hewes]

I don't want change at a time of crisis and I certainly don't want a prophet of change who lacks a coherently intellectual philosophy as well as a coherent plan of action.

Small state or regulating state?
Pro City or city punishing?
Repairing society or cutting taxes?
Helping rich and married or poor and abandoned?

After today's speech none of these absolutely fundamental questions have been answered.

[Max]

I think the Tory lead could evaporate. The speech lacked substance, and not enought to convinve me to trust him nor his party in government.

[Vaseem]

"cameron showed he knows how to frame the argument".

Yes, copy Obama

[Les Gibson]

It was a fine speech by Cameron. He's the best bet to tackle the almost impossible mess Brown will leave behind in 2010. Cameron comes across as a humble politician. It may be an act, but let's give him a chance after the shambolic inheritance left by the nauseating, Oscar winning Bliar, helped by the worst chancellor in history.

[Russell]

Brilliant speech from the next PM. Brown should start packing as should the vast majority of Labour MP's, I don't think many will survive an election.

[Watervole]

Remarkable, inspirational and thought-provoking speech which showed that Cameron really does understand the state of the country and where to begin to fix it. It was extremely moving and the fact that "Max" says it lacks substance leads me to think "Max" may be one of Draper's little friends as his negative comment genuinely did lack any substance. I take it "Max" is not in favour of allowing the Gurkhas to live here, nor of properly equipping, housing and paying our troops who go in harm's way and who it seems, are an embarassment to this current government. Shame on them.

[Man in a Shed]

It was a fine speech. Labour complain and moan about not getting enough policy details to steal, but they must now know their game is up.

I just wish Brown hadn't been given ten years to do so much damage to our country and the future of my children. Its going to be one hell of a mess to sort out.

By the way I wouldn't rule out a snap election. Things are now just going to get worse for Brown after next Summer as they have to use inflation to destroy debt and savings. There are going to be strikes and unrest. My guess is he'll go in the spring.

[Diversity]

Cameron is pitching his speeches beautifully. Change is his card, and he is playing it.

However, it would be nice to have change from someone who appears to know what they are going to do. Clegg Cable and Co look well ahead on the promise of change with competence.

[Rob Knowles]

Before the Labour conference, these blogs were full of anti Brown sentiment, you could barely find a positive Brown comment, It's funny how they all seem to be backing him now, I wonder if this is genuine, or have all the Nu-Labour activists been tought how to use a computer.

[Phil A]

Let's look at the record of experience- selling our gold off at a low price, giving our rebate back to the EU, and have the French Farmers taken pain yet? Going to war with George Bush, and then starving the armed services of necessary kit whilst bloating the civil service with a million more busybodies. Taking £80 Billon out of our pension schemes and wrecking final salary schemes (apart from MP's and civil servants), presiding over the biggest tax increases for decades till we hurt, and the biggest rise in unemployment (masked as disability benefit).... buidling a society that has disrespect and knife crime endemic... and that is the result of experience... David- you are right on the nail... we don't need Gordon and the rest of them, get them out.

[Anthony Vosper]

Well done, David, in giving precedence in your speech to our servicemen in Afghanistan.

[Jonny]

I see Derek Draper's rapid rebuttal team is already hard at work in all the comments sections. Either that or the above commenters (1-3) were watching a different speech to the one I saw.

Lots of specifics, lots of heart, lots of clear thinking. Progressive objectives through conservative methods was a pretty appealing message too.

Best of all, not a single vacuous promise of the 'free broadband access for teenagers' variety.

Roll on the next election.

[John Sheppard]

How can anybody still vote for George Brown? As chancellor he caused untold damage.The demise of company pension schemes is due to the fact that tax rebates on dividens on money invested by fund managers was abolished.

The poorest people are worse off under labour.

David Cameron must be given a chance.

[Val Daniels]

His views on Westminster sleaze were interesting. I presume he will not change his tune if the Standards Committee find Caroline Spelman has a case to answer re the funding of her nanny. On the basis of his speech, she will be sacked, wont she?

[Jean Andrews]

Cameron's speeech was brilliant and convincing. No-one in their right mind could possibly give Brown another chance to lead this country into ruin.

[iodinebabe]

Not content with being the worst Chancellor in history, Brown has now confirmed himself as the worst Prime Minister ever; a Prime Minister not voted for by the people, for the people...Shambolic & inept.

[RICHARD STERLING]

I'l be honest as a 24 year old, I never thought i'd have to pay so much attention to the state of the economy nor did I think that I would be noticing the sheer increase in goods ie the box of comodities. However I can assure you I am, and for me there is only one party to blame for this. Labour or NEW Labour should I say. This speach along with others in the past by Cameron have been carefully worded and more importantly addressed the issues that need to have long term action taken. The conservatives need to focus there efforts on reinforcing there strategy, leaders personality and views in order to get the shambolic Brown out of office. Give Cameron a chance

[Richard Young]

Wow. I think you've just said that all the reasons you think Obama is wrong for the presidency of the US are the same reasons why Cameron is right for the Prime Ministership of the UK.

[JohnB]

You would be right to say 'change' is his only chance, but that seems a bit desperate to me - doesn't every opposition claim to offer change? Cameron has two problems - (i)'what change?' (he's going to have to spell something meaningful out some time, and I don't mean freezing council tax)- and (ii) do people want to change at a time of crisis? (horses and midstream come to mind). People have turned against Brown, but he still looks more of a heavyweight than Cameron (look at the recent poll figures on economic competence) and if the crisis goes on this may appeal more than vague generalities about change. As for Les Gibson's comment, you need to be careful not to assume that your own bilious propaganda is the same thing as reality. I loathe most of the Tories, but I don't assume the world shares my opinion. There's so much talk about Wall Street as the origin of the crisis that I wonder if people really will blame Brown for everything as Les assumes.

[Alan Gooch]

The value of experience lies in not making the same mistakes twice, otherwise you end up taking steps backwards. It does not project the human race forward - only change does that. Humanity is basically optimistic and forward looking and needs the concept of change to justify its future existence. 'What was good enough for my grandfather is good enough for me' is not a life philosophy for success and progress.

[F T P Topcliff]

He didn't go back down the motorway. He waited for the (late) 17.00 Virgin train from New Street like half the other delegates; spending the time being swamped by women asking him to sign conference handbooks.

[Jacqui]

I have been out of the UK for 17 years in Australia and came home to quite a different England. It's been interesting getting back into the loop on what's happening here in government, but I've found the greatest indicators in the lives of those around me.

For anyone that thought David's speech lacked substance I say you totally missed the point. David's argument was ALL about substance, looking at the man behind the title, the character behind the decisions. Those people seem to want more band- aids and hasty words, you want to hear a list rolled out to scratch your tickling ears.

What this country needs is PARENTING; someone to draw boundaries, someone to say 'NO' instead of giving into childish wants, needs and tantrums. David was getting at that, we've been overindulged for too long and now it's coming back to bite us on the bum! Isn't that what we're seeing in our society - a lack of parenting, a life without restraint and boundaries, a self-feeding existence.

Don't you see that David was addressing all of these things, getting at the cause and not just juggling the symptoms?

I was spell bound, moved to emotion in parts of his speech. Here's a man who cares and understands and is breaking down the divide between Westminster and the people - making it transparent, relevant, accountable, touchable.

For those of you who missed the point of his message, sit down and watch it again until you get it.

[albert hall]

Cameron is the ultimate poker player. Those among us who do not play poker, which includes many of the political "scribblers," are miffed because they cannpt find anything in Dave's speeches to attack him except that he will not spell out hard policies at this stage. He will play his cards in due time, when he his ready and you will be stunned.

[Charles Edington]

When will the people of Britain waken up and realise that by devious accounting Brown has landed our chidlren and their children an estimated £1,000,000,000 PLUS of Private Finance Initiatives, to be paid between 30 - 50 years from now. And these same people are saying that Brown will be a steady pair of hands. BUT, he has ruined everything he has touched, the small memoried ones seem to have forgotten some of NULabours "successes " - the Mandelsson affair, the Hinduja Brothers, the steel magnate, the pensions fiasco, the 10p. tax rate, our forces starved of proper ammunition and arms, peerages for cash - I could go on all day !!
Once again, labour will exit leaving the Tories with an empty cupboard and the gold gone - remember Callaghan at the stairs of a plane with the begging bowl asking the IMF to bail him out.

[David S]

There is an old saying that experience enables one to recognise a mistake the next time you make it.
Brown's problem is that his so called experience doesn't help him recognise his portfolio of mistakes committed time after time in the past.
10% tax band gone, millions taken from pension schemes, gold reserves sold off at knock-down prices, money thrown at public services without any idea of how to improve them, huge levels of public debt incurred, balance of payments deficit the worst in the UK's history, private debt encouraged by faulty management of the economy. he list is endless, but the Prime Minister hasn't yet recognised or acknowledged any of these mistakes. Give me David Cameron's attributes of judgement any time. A brilliant speech showing that he fully understands the problems facing the UK and has the ability to lead the country in the fight to overcome them and achieve viable stability again.

[John]

Why tell us his policies so far from an election, the nasty party will only nick them.
Great speech Dave.

[Matt]

God bless David Draper's Rabid Rebuttal Team!

Do they have templated comments from which to choose their blog comments?

Such as:-

"I have voted Tory for 102 years, but I think Brown is wonderful!"

"When can we have Brown declared Emperor for Life?"

"Nuclear power? Yes please!"