Why race won't stop Obama

Will race stop Obama?

The Democrat is now so far ahead that ordinarily pundits would regard the race as over. But with Obama there remains uncertainty. Everyone wonders whether, when it comes down to it, American voters will balk at the idea of a black President.

Some think he will be victim of a last minute change of heart, others that the so-called Bradley effect is at work. In other words, in one way or another, people are saying now that they will vote for an African American but when it comes down to it, they won't.

I have never bought the idea that Americans won't vote for a black candidate. But i am even more confident of that now. Race will not stop Obama.

Look at the polling figures. Not just the headline data but the underlying data.

HorseRace Blog lists three critical pieces of polling evidence:

Hotline/Diageo has shown McCain's advantage on "who's most prepared to lead" vary between 3 and 8 points this week. On a question so crucial to the central logic of the McCain candidacy, this is no advantage at all.

-ABC News/WaPo shows that Obama has a +14 advantage over McCain on who's the "stronger leader." Obama has a +3 advantage on who would better handle an "unexpected major crisis."

-Fox asks an interesting question. If you had to make the "toughest decision" in your life, who would you go to? A month ago, McCain had a 16-point advantage. Now, it's -1. Fox also shows Obama with a +7 advantage on who has "better judgment."

So Obama leads on the critical character questions. People have become comfortable with the idea of him in the White House.

If race remained a knockout issue I think these figures would read entirely differently. Obama might have a headline lead but he wouldn't lead on Presidential timbre questions.

Comments

[Sunshine]

The polls show that the issue of race is really tied to a generational divide. Older Americans are having a harder time accepting a president of mixed race. Younger voters see Obama as a real-time reflection of their world. For many young voters Obama's race is a non-issue and won't impact their vote.

[Daphne Kenward]

Reading SUNSHINE'S statement about how the old are RACIST and stuck in their ways, and the young will vote on how they feel they should, according to how they see the world in which they live, and that is the healthy way to vote.

We can see how George Bush has destroyed the global economy, and ruined several lives in the process. And the number of people who have lost loved ones based on a lie. This is unforgivable, it has to be the biggest crime in a decade.

His policies has caused more Terrorism, by terrorising other people. You cannot fight fire with fire, common sense tell you it will create a bigger fire.

George Bush has done nothing but spread hatred around the world. And as a result people do not like him, because he has done nothing that is good in 8 years but killed people or caused the death of people world wide.

And now he has caused the collapse of the entire world economically. We have nothing to thank this guy for.

Everyone in the world is watching this election because people want to have hope again. George Bush has drained the life out of the entire planet. And every person on earth cannot wait to see the back of him and hope they never hear his name again.

Young people want to have something to hope, and dream of a future.
I very much think a 72 year old man with Palin as his nurse, spells a sick man. Nothing healthy and vibrant about him, people want to be reminded of life not death. People are depressed, and McCain paints a grimmer picture than the one we are trying to recover from, or more to the point trying to forget.

When we look at Obama he reminds us of life, hope, a future, a dream, and he is not so depressing to look at. Looking at McCain reminds us of our worse fear, old people think of death, young people think of WAR, his POW war speaches reminds people of Vietnam, another unpopular war. People don't want to be reminded of the grim old days.

Obama is a breath of fresh air, we all need it.

[william reech]

I think the issue of race is something Americans can manage and live with it. there is no doubt that race will have impact in this election, but most people want to see the change.

[clif judy]

Why would a person offer an opinion when you have declared yourself "final judge"? So, do your own writing, own editing. It's your paper, your show!

[Davidicus]

It is foolish to call this race, even at this stage and even with a big poll lead for Obama. In American politics anything can happen and often does. I hope for an Obama victory but I'll only truly believe it when I see it. And given the long and grueling nature of this election it will be a wonder if one of the candidates doesn't keel over from sheer exhaustion.

[Jon]

I think you're right, Daniel. The argument that race will hurt Obama is always overplayed in any case - how many people who base their decision on race are likely to vote Democrat?
Those people were always going to vote Republican - if at all - and would predominantly be in the southern states, which generally go to a Republican. They are also likely to be counterbalanced by a greater-than-normal black vote.

[Marlon]

Four years of McCain presidency spells doom. The US electorate is warned, be smart and preserve your position as world leader, or prepare for the decline of the US "Empire".

[Nicholas Clark]

Re: The white lie that keeps Barack Obama awake at night
The Democratic candidate seems to be cruising home, but the unspoken legacy of racism could still scupper him
By Ben Macintyre

This editorial that appeared in the London Times today, really got my dander up; it is sickening to so skew facts.

If you vote for McCain you are racist, because right now the polls are in Obama's favor. Mr. Macintyre seems to conveniently forget to mention that the polls were the same prior to the last two elections. In 2004 the brave and somewhat ridiculous John Kerry, with the new world Democrats and a bottle of ketchup, was going to ride in and rescue us from W. Prior to that Al Gore was a shoe in to beat that same hick from Texas, yet both Kerry and Gore lost!

Was America racist then? When the country did not vote for two middle aged white guys? Or could it be as I believe, that polls are skewed? Fanatic Democrats are far more likely to respond to pollsters than Republicans, who when called tend to hang up on telephone pollsters.

Where is the sampling information we are not given if they got poll results from 1200 people and got a 55/45 Obama/McCain split, how many people hung up before responding, and are they assuming the same projectionable 55/45 split, beacuse my belief is it is not a racist sentiment, merely a wish for privacy that skews the numbers.

I am not saying that America is not racist, it may be and that is a tragedy, but voting for Mcain in the next election does not prove it.

[Capecodder]

How can you say it's not about race when the majority of black people are voting for him JUST because they want "one of their own" in the White House? And Daphne's comments are stupid and baseless. To state that George Bush screwed up the world economy is ridiculous. Learn correct information.

[Daphne Kenward]

If anybody think that McCain has any plans except to start another War, and reduce tax for the rich better sit up and hear this man reminisce about his days of war.

Anybody out there fancy fighting out in the desert of Afganistan and Iraq, and Iran better ask themselves if they really think they are up for it, many service men and women have left to go and live in Canada they can't take any more of these pointless wars based on nothing, except oil. Blood for oil days needs to stop.

People and their children have a right to live in freedom and the persuite of happiness.

Who are losing their lives fighting for oil, Black service men and women, when they come home they are subjected to Racism by these old folks.

The next group are poor white people losing their lives fighting for oil, come home to live under bridges, or suffering from mental illness.

We need change wars have to be waged when there is a real reason. Throwing away the lives of people because you can is not a policy I would support. McCain is a continuation of the same old policies. Policies to nowhere.

[hyrdr]

Race has nothing to do with Obama winning or not. It is his past associations and hidden agenda that is the deciding factor. His policies are all over the board with the exception he is going to cost working americans more money. His one world policy is totally unacceptable.

[JimUSA]

Nicholas Clark, you are completely correct. President Bush has been a good leader in these hard times. No one can deni that terrorism is one of the biggest threats our country and the world have to deal with. He has done everything in his power to protect us from that threat. In terms of the economy, our democratic leadership in this country lifted restrictions on home financing borrowing laws requiring loaners to freely 'give' home loans to those who could not afford it. Bush tried many times to put restrictions back in place but they were all shot down by our democratic congress...yet our media does everything in their power to place "all" the blame on the President. Though blame can be spread around in this country, it is rooted in our democratic congress.

[Ian Thorpe]

@Daphne Kenward.

So McCain is the war candidate while The Obamessiah stands for peace and love? Aren't you forgetting which of them announced he would attack Pakistan, a move that would certainly kick off a global war.

[SUNSHINE]

NICHOLAS CLARK - Voting for McCain does not make you racist, I agree. The issue is much more complicated then your post would portray.

First, many older voters who do not accept a bi-racial president will refrain from voting at all.

Second, Hillary Clinton held a larger number of black voters than Barack Obama. Those voters had to reevaluate their choices after Hillary was eliminated from the race. I would argue the reason a large majority of black voters chose Barack Obama is because there is very little difference between Hillary and Barack politically. Common sense tells us they will gravitate to the closest candiate who shares their views.

Third, black voters won't necessarily vote for Obama just because he is black. I am a woman and I would sooner poke my own eye out before I'd vote for Sarah Palin. She doesn't get my vote by virtue of the fact that we both have a uterus.

Last, instead of making assumptions based on presumed polling methods, check out the website pollster.com. They show every major poll across the country. It might give you real perspective on the accuracy of polling.

CAPECODDER - The statement that George Bush screwed up the world economy is ridiculous. It was the Republicans who screwed it up. Start with Regan and trace the degregulation forward. It's a straight line to today. The deregulation theory is great - but we forgot to figure in human greed. That's where it ALWAYS goes wrong.

HYRDY - You are wrong. Obama's policies are not all over the place. In fact, he is often criticized by Republicans because his record is the most liberal in the entire Congress. So how can his policies be 'all over the place?' Either he's extreme left or he's not. Which is it?

Past associations are simply that - in the past. Plus, associations is a weak term meant to insinuate that there is influence when there is not. A better question to asked of Obama about Bill Ayers would be whether he shared Ayers radical beliefs regarding the education of children in America.

JIMUSA - I'd argue that Bush has never actually been a LEADER. Instead, he has been LEAD. LEAD by the far right. LEAD by Cheney. LEAD by Rumsfeld. LEAD by a Republican congress.

The Democrats have only been a majority in Congress for less than 2 years. Who do you think has been in charge for the previous 6?

Do me a favor. Take a civics class. And maybe read a newspaper once in a while. Oh. And stop believing everything that comes out of Rush Limbaugh's mouth.

[Stan]

" .. now he (Bush) has caused the collapse of the entire world economically."
CRA was a Carter law, boosted by Clinton. FNMA/FGMA became tools to *guarantee* loans made to the unqualified, leading to the credit crunch today. Attempts by Bush, Repubs in the Senate etc to improve oversight were shoutd down by Democrats accusing "racism" (really original, eh).
Bush has erred plenty but get your facts straight Ms DK.

PS Regarding Obama's being "so far ahead", where'd you get that ? Polls are about 5 or 6% difference and, if anything, tightening.

It's far from over yet.

[Payday Loan Advocate]

John McCain’s speech in Dayton, Ohio, was repeated on The New York Times. The Arizona senator appears to be in a fighting mode stating, “I’m an American. And I choose to fight. Don’t give up hope. Be strong. Have courage. And fight.” Through his words, he aims to fight for what’s right for America, for justice and opportunity, for the children. McCain makes sure not to ignore the economic concerns that are affecting every individual in the country and others, with items like Issue 5 on the agenda for Ohio voters. He is not hesitant to point out the “Barack the Re-distributor” will spread the wealth and not put policies in place that will create more jobs and opportunities for the nation. While Obama believes taxes are too low, McCain says the spending which seemed normal during the Bush administration is too high. As our country calls out for an economic resolution, McCain does not focus on payday loans as much as Obama. Obama’s promise to bail out Wall Street bankers with $750 billion of taxpayers’ money will not only put a strain on the industry, but many Americans as well. McCain’s ultimate plan for the economy is to “get it out of the ditch and back in the lead.” He feels this will enable Americans to rest easy, knowing they will pass on a better legacy to their children and grandchildren.