Don't blame the manager...

Over on David Berri's Wages of Win Journal, a brilliant sporting blog, the economist reveals the results of his study into the impact of managers and coaches on the outcome of professional sports.

Together with colleagues he analysed the contributions made by a variety of basketball players when managed by different coaches.

His findings, which are also featured on Slate, are consistent with a long held theory of mine, arising from the work my colleagues Henry Stott and Ian Graham have carried out for my Fink Tank football column.

Berri concludes that:

The majority of the coaches we looked at did not have a statistically significant impact on player performance.  And some of these coaches are ranked among the all-time greats.

Such findings suggest that the outcomes we observe for teams are mostly about the players, not the coaches.  So teams that wish to improve should focus on the people in the uniforms, not the people wearing suits on the sidelines.

The Fink Tank hasn't done a directly comparable study, but last year we crawled all over the figures for the tenure of the celebrated Jose Mourinho and the generally dismissed Avram Grant. The result? That Avram Grant did slightly better.

I do not think this was because Avram Grant had hidden ability. I think Grant's success simply shows that managers don't make as much difference to team performance as coverage suggests.

My nickname for Grant was "The Null Hypothesis". I cannot claim that this nickname was in common use at the Bridge. Unfortunately Avram was sacked just before it caught on.

Comments

[Richard Evans]

It was obvious that while appearing dour, Grant did well in the league and Champions League. So his example doesn't contradict what instinctively seems to be the case.

I still believe that while managers often don't make much difference, surely sometimes they can.

What about the likes of Brian Clough and Graham Taylor?

[Marbury]

How do you separate the performance of the players from the impact (in terms of confidence, motivation, education) that the manager has on them?

[Rowland Manthorpe]

This may be true of basketball, which has a million repeated actions and is very high scoring.

Football is low scoring - so the slightest change can have a huge effect, especially in the short run.

Question to Danny: following the logic of your statement, would it make any difference to replace Gordon Brown with David Cameron?

[Moses Muccie]

This only proves that a good manager can't make a bad player good in the same way that a master chef can't make a quality meal without quality ingredients. And to take the metaphor one step further, if you use a chef's recipe and follow the instructions, you're very likely to make a decent meal. But that should never be taken to mean that a manager doesn't impact significantly on perfomance. Great managers inspire confidence, manage big squads well despite a gamut of temperements and make bold calls in tight games, more often than not getting it right. Management style differs and it's safe to say some groups respond better to certain types of management than others. But to dismiss men like Phil Jackson, Brian Clough, Sir Alex, Arsene and yes, Jose Mourinho as just plain "lucky" is ludicrous.

[Mark]

Basketball and Football are too totally differnt sports therefore your argument is void. You think Harry Rednapp made no difference to Tottenham? How about Ferguson when he joined United or Keane joining Sunderland at the bottom of the Championship, unable to buy a point, and taking them to the title?

[colin young]

Newcastle Utd are an excellent example. A range of coaches and styles haven't changed a consistently poor squad since Boby Robson left. Change the players and maybe things will pick up.

[The Random Punter]

Interesting post, not sure I agree with all of it, but the study will no doubt work in some instances.

Have posted a longer response on my blog but if we take the argument to its conclusion, are you suggesting that we might as well have kept Steve McClaren rather than appointed Capello?

[Milo]

Surely since at most football clubs the manager is primarily responsible for the appointment of the players the buck stops with him for the performance of those in uniform on the pitch? How do the statistics represent Arsene Wenger's tenure at Arsenal? He has managed a series of players (Henry, Vieira, Anelka...) who have struggled to make a similar impact elsewhere.