Why Gordon Brown should go for an early election

Over on UK Pollling Report, Anthony Wells has a superb summary of the arguments for and against the idea of an early election.

As it did last year, the decision boils down to this - if Brown runs he may lose, but that is true at any time. So isn't this (by which I mean early next year) the best time to go?

Let me add one more reason to those advanced by Anthony as to why I think it probably is the best moment he will get. The reason is risk aversion.

In January the conventional wisdom was that a looming economic dowturn would further add to Gordon Brown's troubles. I questioned this wisdom, believing that the downturn might help him. One part of my argument concerned risk aversion:

A global downturn also brings into a play one of the strongest forces in human affairs - risk aversion.

A fashionable area of economic research is the exploration of the way that people make decisions under uncertainty. Repeated experiments demonstrate our reluctance to accept a bargain with an uncertain payoff rather than another bargain with a more certain, but possibly lower, expected payoff.

When faced with a choice between the devil they know - Gordon Brown - and the devil they don't - David Cameron - voters may prefer to stick with Mr Brown.

Part of this research, employing experiments with gambling and such like, shows the much greater impact of losses on human beings, and the prospect of losses compared with gains.

In an ordinary election two parties might fight over which has the best offer, which provides the bigger gain. The risk involved in making the wrong choice - sacrificing a gain you haven't yet made - doesn't loom all that large. Losses, according to many of these new school economists, are a different matter. If you make a mistake and lose more than you bargained that you would, it is much more painful.

Voters in elections where economic losses are in prospect are likely to be more risk averse.

The critical words in the last sentence are "in prospect". People are risk averse when losses are "in prospect". When the losses have already happened they became more willing to experiment.

So now is the moment when "it's no time for a novice" is at its strongest against "it's time for a change". I don't think that, even now, it would win. But this is the best time to go.

Comments

[Halima Sadia]

Gordon Brown is a legend! hes just not as annoying or extrovert as other leaders>> but hes very experienced with economics and just ebcause hes not a popularity begger he should be given a chaaaaance

[Alan Knell]

At least we have a government with a working majority.
The worst and most likely outcome of an early election would be a hung parliament, adding political paralysis to the list of threats to our country's future.
It is the national interest that GB soldier on.

[Robert]

I think that Gordon Brown should go for an earliest possible election so that we can get rid of him at the earliest possible opportunity.

[michael]

Didn't Gordon Brown rule out an election before 2010?

Would people want to elect a man who breaks his word?

[Father Ignatius Brown]

"Bottler" Brown is all bluff and no trousers - he will dither and blather this brief resurgence away - but only after he has tried to buy off the voters with a final flurry of tax fiddling and consumerist cons.

If he had guts he would announce the election next Wednesday after the pre-budget report... but he won't.

[Mike]

Yes please asap so we can get rid of the useless moron. He is going to lose either way, may as well be sooner rather than later.

[Guy Clapperton]

I'm not at all convinced he'd lose if he called an election now. The Conservatives have just gone back on their previous spending pledges, rightly or wrongly, and are struggling to find a narrative. It would be tight but he could well do it - but his track record suggests he won't make such a strong decision in a hurry.

[Paul Hudson]

I think what the general public need to bear in mind is the fact that the UK economy is one of the worse placed economies in the world to face this global crisis, the one person to blame for this predicament is Gordon Brown, he is using the global situation to cover over his tracks, every time he or Alistair Darling come on television it is the same old mantra. I dearly hope when it comes to an election the British public don't forget who got us into this mess.

[Ian Thorpe]

Gordon Brown has, according to a story sent me by a friend in Barcelona, been chosen as one of this years caganers. A caganer is a Catalan Christmas tradition, a little figure who squats having a poop in the corner of Spanish nativity tableaux. This year Gordon Brown's image, along with those of other leading politicians has been put on the faces of the dolls.

Perhaps this is and indication that Gordon is on a roll and should go for an election soon.

Follow my name link for the full story.

[Les Gibson]

The mess is mostly Broon's. The problem is that most of the electorate are too stupid to realise this. They're more interested in Strictly Come Bloody Dancing.

[Louise]

Guy is right, and I say this as a Conservative. However, if Danny is advocating this, does it mean he is actually shifting allegiances? Was he put off by the punk tax cutters winning the arguments?

I think we should be told.

[rob]

Your risk aversion analogy falls down when the facts are that Brown has been on an addictive spending binge for nigh on a decade and patently does not know when to stop. In fact spending shedloads of borrowed and taxpayers money badly is the only trick this pony knows.
I hope he does call an early election because.thanks to him,our economy is shot to hell and it will only get worse whilst this pillock continues to run amok.

[geoff]

please give us the election mr brown.then we can have a say and bid you farewell

[Liz]

Bring it on!

[Jean Andrews]

The electorate is just stupid if it re-elects this disastrous, mendacious Labour government. Gordon Brown should realise that those of us with intelligence and standards value the honesty and straightforwardness of David Cameron.

[Thomas]

Oh Yes Gordon The Moron Should Indeed Call An Election,Perhaps The Journalists Who Mouth The BNP Should Now Spout The Same For The Labour Mobs List That Has Just Been Aired
It Makes Worse Reading Than The BNP
List.

[Thomas]

Let Us Not Forget All Gordons Debacles Throughout Ten Years Of Hell.
Or Do We Say That One Day In Politics Is Poison.

[eric]

These OBSESSIVE persistant tory calls for an election are comical..........why on earth should Gordon listen to distortive power seekers?............let Lord Snooty and Lord Fauntleroy get themselves into more trouble first

[William Lack]

Go on Gordon Brown make my day, week, month, year!

[rob]

Louise comment - If you are a conservative I am a dutchman and as regards experience - if running up the overall indebtedness of this country to unprecedented levels by loose regulation is a measure of experience give me a novice any day.

I think if an early election is called and people realise that Brown could be in power for another four years they will vote Tory.

I am sure the English electorate will not have forgotten how Scottish MPs are allowed to vote on English matters and that Westminster is being run by the Scottish mafia and that they don't particularly like Brown.

[Andrew Lees]

Yes please, evict this clown back to Scotland and take the rest with him.

[Carly Porter]

Mr Brown will not call an early election. He will hang on until the very last minute in the hope that things will sort themselves out. In truth, things are going to get so much worse in the next few months. By the time the election comes along, the Tories will have themselves sorted out and we can look forward to getting rid of this dictatorship and all the baggage it has brought with it.

[PMK]

How many times will Gordon Brown lie and mislead the public on this.

It might well be his best chance to make a break for it now before the public realise how much damage he has down to this country economically. They will only realise this late next year in all likelihood ... when normal service is resumed economically and the UK is the only European economy still in a hole.

[Robert]

If all those members of the population who have a detailed knowledge about football, pop music, their favourite idol, alcoholic brew or hobby, had the same level of understanding about economics and politics and were brave enough to look beyond their own garden fence then Britain's economy would be the envy of world! Why? Easy, because politicians would still be seeking power from public approval only the public would be seeking approval for the right reasons! At least I can dream, which by the time this lot have finished will be all that's left for most of us!

[geoff]

let us decide so u can go away to a deserted island.let us vote

[Barry Holmes]

Yes alot of comments say call the election and then we can get rid of him. A wonderful thought but you over look the rank and file English
who would vote for the Liar Brown
irrespective of his and Labours performance.

[Gary]

Let us not forget all the other issues we face and all the reasons his own party had for getting rid of him just a few months ago:

After 11 years of New Labour we have:

A large number of children leaving school unable to read and write.

A very high number of older people in fuel poverty who die each winter.

Increased violent crime.

Increased gap between rich and poor, with massive life expectancy gaps.

Increased personal debt, which will rise even further if the official policy is to encourage lower paid people to spend, spend, spend.

The war in Iraq.

Expensive transport (and soon to be more expensive) with overcrowding.

Yes, the economy is important but so are all the other aspects of life that Brown et al have been responsible for over the last 11 years.

Let us hope that when an election is called these issues are discussed and that the Government is held to account. At the moment most of the media have forgotten how to challenge the government and we are left to shows like Bremner, Bird and Fortune to highlight the truth.

How many broadcasters this weekend will refer to the Sunday Mirror poll showing an 11 point lead for the Conservatives - very few if any.

Not me guv unelected Brown is moving very quickly from confidence to arrogance. He doesn't answer questions at 'question' time or accept any alternative view to his own. We don't buy it is all the fault of America and his actions had nothing to do with the state of the economy now and our ability to weather the storm.

Should he go for an early election -yes, so I can vote him out.

[Jeremiah]

GB is probably bouyed up by the Glenrothes result, and his ability to strut the world stage as some sort of economic saviour.And yes risk aversion may play some part in the public's decisionwhen electing a new government. But,we have a bitter winter ahead of us. Despite the government's sops to Serebus most people are going to feel the cold, and the fact that prices go down won't be attributed to a reduction in VAT but to the general economic climate. omething perverse in me would like labour to win, only sothat I could say "There, here's another fine mess you've got'n us into"

[waine]

I am not a particular fan of Brown, but to suggest ( as many do on here) that he is responsible for the world financial crisis is absurd I can only think that some of the contributors on this forum have been living on another planet. Even the Americans blame their financial institutions for the mess. and for that country to accept blame for anything is astounding, to say the leased. Brown may not be to everyones liking, but the thuoght of Cameron taking control at this time would be a disasdter for millions of families throughout the country. Camerons policies for todays crisis is to do nothing and let the markets sort it out. Well if he hasn't noticed IT'S THE MARKETS THAT HAVE GOT US INTO THIS MESS.

[Steve Tea]

Brown is not a economic expert, he is a dour professional politician who was one a journalist and a teacher. Brown took over a surplus in the treasury and has now squandered it. Personnel debt has double to £3.8 Trillion. Government debt will rise to 60% of GDP. The UK was once the 4th richest country in the world, now we are 5th and will sink lower. Brown has overspent the budget year on year. This is why we have such high taxation both indirect and direct. I hope Brown calls an election because I think he will lose!

[M. Cawdery]

He will wait until his proposed "recovery plans" are in place. If then they prove to be another disaster (May 2008) he will call an election and leave a VERY POISONED CHALICE to the next Govt.

[Anthony Farrar]

Brown is a bit like Mugabe, no matter how unpopular or innefficient or damaging he is (and he is), he will hang on until the last minute. He was not elected, he lied about a referendum, he ratified a dead treaty, he sold our gold cheaply, his ministers are friends and useless and many of his party are currupt - surely this bullying, cowardly Scotsman is finished. My dream is to see him lose his seat in the next election.

[Drew]

Bring it on Gordie....I hope you are successfully goaded into call ing an early General Election....

When people get to the Ballot Box, the actual reality of having another five horrendous years of Labour will dawn on them and Gordon and his party of cringeworthy liars will be history.

The Americans have had enough of the Republican; Britain has had enough of Labour;

Brits are only biding their time, waiting for the opportunity ASAP to get our own change of Party in Government.

Brown isn't suddenly popular again; people simply don't think now is a good time for political change;

However, I will be delighted if Gordon calls an early Election - when it comes to placing that all important cross, I am confident that there will be enough to get us the Conservative party we need here in the UK......

Bring it on Gordo.........

[dee]

We need to get rid of muppet Brown and co asap, but the Tories are not looking very good either

[Richard Holloway]

Brown is too scared of an election to call one early, but the economy will come down around him if he stays until the last possible moment. He won't go early, it's not in his nature.

[Pat]

Brown never does anything spontaneously- its all minutely planned (how well planned is another question). As I recall the last of the monies being returned is due in April- so expect an election a month or two after that.

[paulgilboy]

your right brown has not got it in him to call an early election his closest aids are too partisan to to win one anyway.
But mandelson wll know when to fight and thats early spring

[paulgilboy]

reading the comments by these people you would think they are sitting around an open fire living on roots and insects because of the supply side economics being initated around this time.Gordon brown according to many has beggered them.
I can see them now carving a lump of beef and guzzling a bottle of claret exclaiming how f****ng bad there life is under labour

[simon kershaw]

The truly terrifying element to the whitewash spouted by Darling is that only a few seasoned observers know that virtually all of our economic and social problems are a direct result of the sheer incompetence of this government over the last 11 years. Thieving, lying, inept. Get the untermensch out.

[Noel Falconer MEcon]

Although the miserable measures that must shortly become inevitable are the fault of our incumbent idiots, we asinine amnesiacs will blame whichever party is then in power for them: the coming election is one to LOSE.

Happily for Tories, Cameron and Osborne seem to appreciate this.

[Hugh]

I accept your point in principle - indeed its often been argued that the French Revolution took place at a time of growing liberalisation and an improved economic environment. However, I think you underestimate the extent of Labour's unpopularity and you do not distinguish short term blips in the opinion polls to longer term trends.

Further, there is also plenty of evidence that where there is a downturn in the economy voters 'punish' the Party in power - regardless of whether that Party can be held responsible. Obama's victory earlier this year, Roosevelt's election in 1932 and Thatcher's election in 1979 all involved overturning long established governments in the midst of economic collapse.

I've never voted anything but Labour (and spent 20 years a member, stood for election three times and served one term as a Labour councillor) and I will be skipping down to the polling station to vote Conservative for the first time ever. And there are many others out there like me - people who might have felt some instinctive loyalty to Labour but now have so many reservations over their policies and competence that we can't bring ourselves to vote Labour again. Labour might be trying to shore up its positions amongst core voters but no one ever won an election on the core vote alone - and Labour's core vote tends to less than determined (just try getting them 'out' if its raining or there is something good on TV).

[IAN PAYNE]

Call it so we can rid of him - he is uelected and taking this land to areas never imagined under any of his predecesors. He is a very dangerous man !!!!!

[Linda Stewart]

The Blairite faction detest Brown and certainly don't want another 5 years.
A few months ago, when it looked possible that Labour would be decimated, and many vulnerable Blairites would loose their seats, it became "all hands to the pumps" (with the two Blairite opportunists called back - Campbell and Mandelson).
If Brown even looked like establishing a lead, these guys would quickly damage him, they want a hung parliament or a narrow Conservative victory, so that they can purge the party of Brownites, instal a Blairite figure, and look forward to an early return to power.
Another five years of Brown is too awful to contemplate for Conservatives, Blairites and even many LibDems, although it is patently obvious that Cable fancies his chances of tucking up in bed with Brown as Chancellor, in a coalition after a hung parliament.

[Andrew Milner]

Are turkeys going to vote for an early Christmas?

[Mr Mistta]

If Gordon Brown was to blame for the country's woe's then the problem we face wouldn't be global, it would just be national. At the end of the day, we are all to blame when we chose to take advantage of unsustainable credit and fuelled the rise in property prices. House prices have rocketed globally and we have all been living a life of excess. The correction is long overdue and this in actual fact is good for the long term of the economy.

Gordon Brown is the best person for the job. Although I had my reservations about him when he came to power, he has convinced me that his experience as chacellor is really shining through. He has been more proactive than any other world leader and many of the countries top leaders have followed his principal.

He looks more confident to bring us all out of this and in times where confidence is low, you need a strong, confident leader. Gordon Brown is that.

[james adams]

Labour to win the next election! What morons are these pollsters interviewing? Brown presided over this mess. Did he really think these boom bust de-regulated chickens wouldn't come home to roost? He was well aware that this recession and banking crisis was looming when he was about to call an election earlier in the year. What good has his capital injections done to the banking sector other than given them the coffers they required to shore up their inefficiencies and fraudulent play. They've simply taken our money and are hoarding the same, whilst not only profitting from it but also,quite nicely thankyou, filled the holes in their balance sheets created as a result of the de-regulated system overseen and encouraged by Gordon Brown and his cronies. Move Osborne out and let Hague the orator take them to task. Goodness me! If the tories can't make fair capital out of this mess they may as well save the party's election coffers and treat the country's pensioners to a well earned free christmas bash.

[Nigel]

I'm an expatriate Brit, so not fully in touch with day-to-day British politics. It does seem to me, though, that the UK's economic crisis, like the USA's, was caused by poor mortgage lending practices over a space of 6-8 years. Hardly Brown's fault. Also, he's become a world leader, or even THE world leader, on nanagement if the crisis. An early election would probably be his best hope. So, all you Brown haters, you'd better hope he doesn't try it.

[Bud]

As a lifelong Tory supporter, I am desperately hoping he doesn't call an election until 2010.

The country might well be in a bigger mess then, but it is by far the best chance we will have of the landslide victory that will decimate the Labour Party andlead to them being out of Office for decades.

[Dave George]

Sadly Labour has the next election in the bag, and the next ten after that. With 7 million on the public payroll, 4 million incapacitated on the payroll and soon to be another 3 million unemployed on the payroll plus 90% of whoever’s left relying on some working tax credit or other giveaway leave the Tories no real chance! Welcome to socialist Britain. It saddens me that we have let this happen. And just to make sure he nails the next election he’s also managed to borrow the best part of a trillion quid to keep this charade running. Good luck comrades and up the revolution!

[geoff]

YES PLEASE THEN WE CAN GET RID OF LABOUR.PLEASE DO IT GORDAN

[Roger Evans]

Brown is a lier,before comming into power he promised not to increase tax. the first day in office he started his stealth taxes.The last manifesto promised a vote on Europe another lie.the sooner we have an election the better so we can get rid if this sleezy grabbing lot the better

[thomas]

As soon as the scale of Brown's idiocy becomes apparent Labour will become discredited and consigned to the wilderness for a generation. Our country has been raped by Blair/ Brown. They only set up Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly as centres of opposition to a future Tory Government. We are sleep walking to disaster we must rid ourselves of this Foolish Man and his Progressive Liberal Commissars.