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You say Obama but I say...

It's a truth universally acknowledged that where one political spouse leads, the other is bound to follow. For Exhibit A, please see Hill and Bill.

So it's refreshing that while Obama revels in the prized Edwards endorsement, he actually only managed to get half of it.

According to The New York Times:

Missing from the event was Elizabeth Edwards, Mr. Edwards’s wife, who has been a passionate proponent of universal health care. The Edwardses were said to be split on the endorsement, with Mrs. Edwards said to favor Mrs. Clinton because of her preference for parts of the Clinton health care plan.

Top ten Obama Vice Presidential picks

So it's Obama. But who's going to fill the second slot on the Democratic ticket?

UPDATE: Vote in our poll here

1) Hillary Clinton

Many believe Obama will have to offer the VP slot to Clinton. Andrew Sullivan called it the hate-filled dream ticket. But will she accept it? If Obama loses, she may see a 2012 race opening up before her.

2) Al Gore

He's certainly got the experience. But the eco-warrior probably has no desire to return to Pennsylvania Avenue. Winning his endorsement would have set Obama up for the nomination. Does he need Gore any more?

3) John Edwards

A serious contender. The North Carolina Senator ran with John Kerry in 2004 and would bring the Southern link currently missing in Obama's campaign. But would he want to do it again? And would Obama feel Edwards should have been with him earlier?

4) Kathleen Sebelius

Sebelius's name has been cropping up more and more frequently. The two-term Governor of Kansas fills in many of the gaps in Obama's support base. She may not have much foreign policy experience but she'll bring a red state with her. And a female Vice-President might help soothe Clinton's supporters. One to watch.

5) Bill Richardson

Also extremely likely. Pundits state that he's been running for VP since the beginning. He brings foreign policy experience and the Hispanic vote with him.

6) Wesley Clark

A former four-star general, Wes Clark served in Kosovo and studied PPE at Oxford. He would lend Obama military clout and cross party-lines in his appeal.

7) Jim Webb

The junior Virginia senator since 2006. He could provide the machismo that Obama needs. A military man with a son in Iraq, he's regarded as one of the most authoritative Democratic voices on the conflict. Known to carry a loaded pistol on occasion.  As a former Reagan man he would add to Obama's cross party appeal and make it slightly harder to paint the candidate as an unrepentant liberal.

8) Robert Casey

The Pennsylvania senator has already endorsed Obama. As VP, he would help out in the white working-class states. And his Catholic faith would reach out to an important voting bloc. 

9) Oprah Winfrey

She's already one of America's most powerful women. Could DC be next on her world-domination agenda? Just a thought.

10) Joe Biden

Might he be the first Biden in a thousand generations to run for President? A senator since 1972, his presidential runs have never taken off. But his international experience might make him a good choice and he'd appeal to the white male vote. His description of Obama as 'clean' didn't do him any favours though. And some think he is more likely to be Secretary of State.   

It's Hillary Clinton calling...

Aha! Some new tunes to add to your best political ringtones selection.

Thanks to Slate, you too can vibrate to the sound of Clinton's cackle or listen to McCain insult a member of the audience.

We still prefer West Wing though.

Downloads available here.

Alice Fishburn

It takes a village, a Ron Paul village

These '08 candidates are the gift that keeps on giving.

Ron Paul's cult following have taken their support of the Republican contender to the next level. Apparently funding, rallying and screaming with other supporters is not enough. Now they want to live with them too:

The goal of Paulville.org it to establish gated communities containing 100% Ron Paul supporters and or people that live by the ideals of freedom and liberty....

This is in line with the ideals that you're free to live your life the way you want and not be forced to do or pay for other people's life styles you may not agree with.

The first plot of land has already been purchased. 50 acres in Texas will shortly be colonised by a web-savvy group of non-interventionists who refuse to pay federal tax. All will, I imagine, be happy. Well, at least until the IRS catches up with them.

I can imagine Comment Central readers are rushing for their applications. So one final word of warning from the website:

These communities are not for the faint at heart. They will start as undeveloped land in non city locals, as this is the way to secure large tracts of land needed for these efforts.

'Large tracts of land'? Watch out America. They're a' comin.

Alice Fishburn

Money can buy you votes

Hillary Clinton must be firm friends with her bank manager. Yesterday, news broke that she loaned her campaign $6.4 million last month. This comes on top of $5 million in January. The Clinton fortune has flowed freely into ads, refreshments and campaign literature.

So, what's $20 million more for a vital superdelegate?

One of California's key voters is selling his vote:

Sacramento superdelegate Steven Ybarra says that eight-figure price is peanuts for the presidency.

When asked whether it was right to offer what is clearly a quid pro quo?

"Yeah, absolutely. People do it all the time," answered Ybarra.

Ybarra says the money would go towards registering and educating Mexican-American voters. Ethics aside, no candidate seems interested in splashing out.

$20 million is no bargain. And buying votes might seem a little too desperate, even for this race. Perhaps you can't put a price on the presidency.

Alice Fishburn

Clinton vs. Obama: updates continue

It's been 24 hours and Clinton shows no signs of going anywhere. But the pressure is on.

We continue to bring you all the gossip, rumours and facts about her path to the exit here.

Clinton vs. Obama: The Endgame UPDATES

As Hillary Clinton faces up to the inevitable, Comment Central will be following what's going on. We'll be hoovering up the information out there on the net as we take those little steps towards a formal Obama victory.

Want to know what's happening in Hillary's camp? Rumours of a withdrawal? The start of a "finish it now" bandwagon? New superdelgate endorsements? Stick with this rolling Comment Central post.

I'll be putting new information in at the top so if you are new, reader, you will want to start with the earliest timed post (11.30hrs). All timing is UK time.

Day 9:

16.20: Real Clear Politics tells us that Obama has picked up the United Steelworkers Endorsement, thanks to John Edwards.

10.41: In a CNN interview, Clinton makes the following statement:

"Anybody who has ever voted for me or voted for Barack has much more in common in terms of what we want to see happen in our country and in the world with the other than they do with John McCain," Clinton said on CNN's "The Situation Room."

I'm going to work my heart out for whoever our nominee is. Obviously, I'm still hoping to be that nominee, but I'm going to do everything I can to make sure that anyone who supported me ... understands what a grave error it would be not to vote for Sen. Obama.

10.39: Edwards endorses Obama

Day 8:

11.00: And here's Terry McAuliffe discussing campaign finances with the Washington Wire:

We have the money to play obviously the next three weeks that we have,” and adding, “Our staff’s fully paid, we’ve opened all our offices, we’re buying media, we’re doing everything a candidate does for president and tonight I think we’ll have another great night as we had last Tuesday night on the Web.

10.48: After Clinton's West Virginia triumph last night, The Caucus brings us this from her victory speech.

Here’s the money quote: “I am in this race because I believe I am the strongest candidate. The strongest candidate to lead our party in November of 2008 and the strongest President to lead our nation starting in January of 2008 I can win this nomination if you decide I should and I can lead this party to victory in the general election if you lead me to victory now.”

Day 7:

16.52: Hillary Clinton advocate James Carville drops this bombshell.

"I still hear some dogs barking," Carville said, according to The State newspaper. "I'm for Senator Clinton, but I think the great likelihood is that Obama will be the nominee."

"As soon as I determine when that is, I'll send him a check," he added.

16.23: Is this a hint from Hillary in the New York Post?

"Thank you for caring so much about our country," Clinton said in a video sent yesterday to supporters. "And now it's on to West Virginia and Kentucky and Oregon, and we'll stay in touch."

Not mentioned in her apparent video swan song are the final three primaries, in Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, to be held after next week - leading to speculation that she might pull the plug on her campaign after what are expected to be strong wins in West Virginia and Kentucky.

15.19:  The Huffington Post does its sums and works out that Obama could take the nomination in three weeks

12.04: A new Washington Post/ABC News poll contains the following:

Despite Obama’s advantage in delegates and popular vote, 64 percent of Democrats in
the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say Clinton should remain in the race. Even
among Obama’s supporters, 42 percent say so.

Day 6:

18.13: CNN and Carl Bernstein on Clinton and the Vice Presidency:

Friends and close associates of both Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are now convinced that, assuming she loses the race for the presidential nomination, she is probably going to fight to be the vice presidential nominee on an Obama-for-president ticket.

Carl Bernstein writes that Hillary Clinton's campaign recognizes that it faces an uphill battle.

Clinton "is trying to figure out how to land the plane without looking like surrender," a prominent figure in the Obama camp said Friday.

17.08: Real Clear Politics reports on another endorsement for Obama:

Maine Rep. Tom Allen endorsed Obama at a press conference this morning. Obama defeated Clinton in the February 10 Maine caucus, winning 15 pledged delegates to Clinton's 9. Allen, who's challenging GOP Sen. Susan Collins this year, has likewise been endorsed by Obama.

14.48: Ben Smith outlines six options for Clinton

13.31: And here's Clinton herself, via The Fix:

"I'm going to keep going because you're keeping me going," she said at a rally yesterday in Oregon, pledging to her supporters to remain in the race regardless of the long odds against her.

13.26: According to the Washington Wire, Clinton also held a Manhattan fundraiser on Sunday. New York Representative Charlie Rangel went along.

Rangel, a longtime Clinton supporter, stressed that the New York senator still had a chance to take the nomination. “Why the hell would I be here at a Clinton rally, if I didn’t think she could win?”

13.19: Over the weekend, the following good news for Obama on the superdelegate front. Here's Real Clear Politics:

The four endorsements give Obama a total of seven superdelegate endorsements today.

Day 3:

17.02: And according to Political Radar, Obama is now ahead in the superdelegate count as well

Sen. Obama, D-Ill., picked up two superdelegates this morning giving him a new metric to tout in addition to his current commanding leads in pledged delegates, popular votes, states won, and money raised

16.03: Obama catches Clinton in Capitol Hill endorsements

13.12: Hillary works through the sums in West Virginia. Here's the Washington Wire quote:

Campaigning in the state Thursday, Clinton added something to her stump speech, which has focused heavily on her populist economic policy. “Now the delegate math may be complicated, but the electoral math is easy,” she told a cheering crowd in the rotunda of the state capitol in Charleston. “We need 270 electoral votes to win in November.” 

12.30: The Hill reports on another superdelegate endorsement.

Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.) announced, after meeting with Obama at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee headquarters, that he would endorse the Illinois senator for president

12.23: Clinton won't be pleased by Al Sharpton's remarks last night. From The Caucus:

The worst thing in the world is when an entertainer doesn’t know when the show is over. The audience is gone, the lights are down, you’re getting ready to cut the mics off and you are still on the stage singing. It’s over, it’s all right, it’s over. Come sing another day, but this show is over Senator Clinton.

Day 2:

17.37: Not all superdelegates are making the leap. At least according to Washington Wire:

While four superdelegates jumped on the Barack Obama bandwagon Wednesday, handfuls of others said they’re perfectly happy remaining neutral, at least through June 3, when the primary season ends.

17.18: Ben Smith reports on more embarrassment for Clinton as Obama hits the House:

New York Rep. Yvette Clarke, in theory a Clinton superdelegate, asked him to autograph the cover of today's New York Daily News, with the headling "It's His Party."

16.39: Edwards still refuses to endorse but here's some interesting news from The Caucus:

John Edwards’s endorsement still eludes the Democratic candidates, but today one of his top advisers threw his support behind Barack Obama.

16.12: But she's still keeping the superdelegates on side. Here's Justin Webb's America

I understand from someone in the Clinton campaign that fundraising services are now being offered to super-delegates in need of assistance, an effort to be nice which has the (wholly unexpected) side-effect of keeping them sweet

16.10: And here's the Reuters story:

It'll be over early June," McAuliffe said. "We've all said we'll be together at the end. If Hillary doesn't win, Hillary, (former) President (Bill) Clinton, myself, we'll be over there helping Senator Obama. And, likewise, Senator Obama will come together to help Hillary if she's the nominee."

16.06: Huffington Post:

Lawrence O'Donnell: Top Hillary Official Says She'll Drop Out By June 15

15.36: Is this why she won't quit? A theory from Thomas Defrank in the New York Daily News.

A top Democratic source with insight into Bill's and Hillary's states of mind says the Clintons are convinced that a Democratic presidency is all but certain no matter how messy the fight for the nomination.

In that scenario - which the Obama side and some Democratic elders worry is wishful thinking at best, delusional at worst - there's no downside for Hillary doing whatever it takes for as long as it takes.

15.29: Obama's advisors have May 20 in mind as well. Politico has this lede:

Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

And, until at least May 31 and perhaps longer, Hillary Clinton’s campaign plans to dispute it.

And this statement:

“On May 20 we’re going to declare victory,” said an Obama senior advisor

15.06: Here's The Caucus on a possible end-date:

But this time, May 20 actually could be a game-changing date, when Kentucky and Oregon come into play.

The candidates will be traveling to Oregon, and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton gave no hint last night at a fundraiser in Washington that she would drop out before then.

14.14: Time's new cover isn't pulling any punches

14.10: The Huffington Post speculates on the rewards that would await Clinton should she stand down now:

One of the most inviting is the near certainty that the Obama campaign would agree to pay back the $11.4 million she has loaned her own bid, along with an estimated $10 million to $15 million in unpaid campaign expenses.

In addition, Democrats, both those who are loyal and those who are opposed to her campaign, say the odds of her winning a top leadership spot in the Senate would improve dramatically if she gracefully conceded now.

11.42: Hillary Clinton spent last night energising her female fanbase in Washington DC. Washington Wire reports on the 'Generations of Women for Hillary' fundraiser:

I’ve been counted out more than once. But thanks to all of you I’ve come back,” Clinton said, earning a thunderous, extended ovation. She later added, “When I was counted out in New Hampshire, it was the women of New Hampshire who came back and said, ‘No, she’s not finished yet.’ When I was counted out before Super Tuesday it was women from California to Massachusetts who came and said ‘No, we’re not finished yet.’ When I was counted out before Ohio, before Indiana, we have always come back.

11.39: Here's The Washington Post on another Clinton meeting

Clinton did meet with some uncommitted superdelegates individually. House Budget Committee Chairman John M. Spratt Jr. (S.C.) told her cordially that his state had gone overwhelmingly for Obama, and that he could not endorse her, Spratt spokesman Chuck Fant said. He pledged to stay neutral for now.

10.33: Ben Smith has some new superdelegate developments. A somewhat grudging endorsement of Clinton from Indiana:

Brad Ellsworth, whose Indiana district Clinton carried, goes with her.

UPDATE: Ellsworth spokeswoman Liz Farrar emails to contest the original report I linked. Ellsworth will endorse the winner of his district, he says in a statement, "unless there is a compelling reason to do otherwise."

23.00: More Clinton superdelegate news from the AP:

She picked up two in the wake of Tuesday's loss in North Carolina and narrow victory in Indiana. North Carolina Rep. Heath Shuler had said he would support the winner of his district, and she won it handily. A spokeswoman for Texas labor leader Robert Martinez told the AP he is committed to Clinton, but it wasn't clear when he made the decision.

But she lost another supporter, Virginia state House member Jennifer McClellan, who switched to Obama.

22.07: Drudge has this developing story:

CONGRESSIONAL SOURCE: Hillary having trouble finding superdelegates who will meet with her... 'No one wants to see her today'...

21:59: The Obama campaign announces three additional superdelegates. Here's The Caucus report:

Today, in the wake of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, the Obama campaign is announcing three new superdelegates: Jerry Meek, chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, Jeanette Council, a member of the D.N.C. from North Carolina and Inola Henry, a member of the D.N.C. from California.

18.11: She's not going anywhere (or so she says). Ben Smith brings us this Clinton quote from West Virginia:

Next Tuesday, I hope you will give me a chance to be your president

18.03: The Stump on the argument that Clinton may stay for West Virginia and Kentucky in order to make herself seem indispensable

17.26: Wonkette brings us this Craigslist posting. They're giving away free Clinton campaign paraphanelia with the line.

Won't be needing them

17.03: The Washington Post brings us McGovern's statement:

Hillary, of course, will make the decision as to if and when she ends her campaign. But I hope that she reaches that decision soon so that we can concentrate on a unified party capable of winning the White House next November

16.54: And another backer falls (courtesy of Ben Smith). George McGovern is calling Bill and endorsing Obama.

16.52: And from the Daily Kos...

I still say that Oregon should push Obama over the 2,024.5 mark. Or if the Clinton campaign remains obtuse, enough to get him over whatever number he needs when including Michigan and Florida

16.37: Wesley Clark apparantly rang Clinton last night to tell her it was over.

16.33: The Caucus brings us more news of the Clinton camp conference call this morning. Here's strategist Geoff Garin on whether Florida and Michigan's delegates should come into play:

All we’re saying is, we ought to let the process play through. We think that it continues to be constructive for the Democratic Party to do that, as we go into these next set of states.

15.55: This from The Stump:

Opening what may prove his most challenging conference call of the campaign, Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson promises to "talk about how we go forward from here towards the nomination and victory in November."

15.03: More bad news for Clinton's funding team on Justin Webb's America:

One of her fundraisers told me in the middle of the night that a large sum of money to be clinched tomorrow will now be lost.

14.51: The Obama campaign releases a new memo to the superdelegates. The Caucus carries the full text but here's an extract:

With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days. While those scenarios may be entertaining, they are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or its millions of supporters, volunteers, and donors.

14.29: The AP states that Clinton has loaned herself $6.4 million over the last month. Drudge suggests she'll be giving more

13.52: Gamblers shy away from Clinton. Check out the dip in Slate's market value graph over the past 24 hours

13.47: Real Clear Politics brings us Howard Wolfson (Clinton's Communications Director) on MSNBC's Morning Joe

I don't think there's any question that we're going to have to have a pretty good month here between now and the last contest on June 3. And it starts next week in West Virginia. Polls have us up there. I don't know if we're going to believe those. ... We're going to need points up on the board, no question about it.

13.15: And here's the New York Daily News

12:33: The Washington Wire has this from the Clinton campaign plane

The spokesmen confirmed that Clinton would indeed be meeting with superdelegates on Wednesday, but said that both candidates commonly hold such meetings to check in with delegates and attempt to make their case to the undecided.

12.28: This is this morning's New York Post

12.16 hrs: The Huffington Post has this:

After the Reverend Wright controversy, Hillary Clinton had the nomination in her hands. Obama was suffering the worst press month of his campaign," said Republican media consultant Alex Castellanos. "Then she had a choice. She could have gotten bigger, more presidential, less political, could have risen to defend Obama. 'This is outrageous and has no place in politics.' She didn't do that. Instead, she chose to become smaller, more political, less presidential. Her own political instincts betrayed her.

11.55hrs: The Drudge Report still carries a smiling picture of Michelle and Barack Obama over two words: THE NOMINEE

11.40hrs. Over on Politico.com, Ben Smith reports that the Clinton camp are denying her programme has been scrapped:

Damping down speculation that she'll leave the race, Clinton adds a noon event in Shepherdstown, WV to her schedule today. Also, Clinton spokesman Phil Singer denies Clinton cancelled morning show appearances, saying they were never scheduled.

11.30hrs. Lets start with this news from The Caucus that Mrs Clinton has cancelled her morning interviews:

What to make of the fact that Mrs. Clinton has cancelled her morning TV interviews? In this campaign, that may almost be taken as a sign of surrender - either that or she hasn’t figured out yet what her next move is and doesn’t want to have to answer a bunch of questions until she does.

Before we go on, let me give you the maths from 2008 Democratic Convention Watch.

There are 217 pledged delegates still to be fought over and 267 super delegates yet to announce their endorsements, a total of 494. Obama needs 183 of them.  Assuming conservatively that he wins roughly 100 of the remaining pledged delegates, he needs around 80 super delegates.

You can read the full list of those superdelegates who have already made endorsements here, and of those yet to endorse here.

A new delegate calculator

Confused by just who needs what to secure the Democratic nomination?

Have a play with this updated New York Times delegate calculator.

It shows that Barack Obama must win 68 per cent of all remaining state delegates to secure the nomination. Hillary Clinton needs 98 per cent.

And that's where the super delegates come into her game plan.

Alice Fishburn

Presidential politics in seven minutes

Do your eyes glaze over during Democratic race updates? What was the latest scandal? Who threw mud last?

Here's all the information you'll ever need in just seven minutes. Courtesy of Slate.

Your PA Primary Reader

Missed out on last night's US election action? Here's an initial reader to bring you up to speed.

• Gerard Baker in Times Online: Oh no! Groundhog day...again
• Tom Bevan in Real Clear Politics: Pennsylvania Primary
• John Dickerson in Slate: She's got a friend in Pennsylvania
• Andrew Romano in Newsweek: And now, story time
• Andrew Sullivan in The Daily Dish: The worst of all worlds for the Dems

We may be done for the day but...

... Across the Pond is setting up for a long night.

Our intrepid team will be live-blogging the Pennsylvania primary for your wonkish delectation. Enjoy.

One reason to vote for Ron Paul

The coolest ad of the campaign season so far goes to one of the oddest candidates.

This CGI extravaganza from Ron Paul is compelling in a way that none of the hackneyed 3am ads has managed to come close to. Strategists should sit up and take note. Ron Paul for Creative Director!

(And yes, he is still in the race.)

Alice Fishburn

(Hat Tip: Matthew Yglesias)

Just how old is John McCain?

Our excellent Across the Pond blog breaks it down.

Hint: He's older than the Golden Gate Bridge (and Iceland...)

Alice Fishburn

Note-taking, presidential style...

Ever wonder what Clinton and Obama have scrawled on those debate notepads?

236.com brings you one possible answer.

My favourite jotting. This gem from Obama:

#1: Reaffirm stance on change                                                   change = good                                                                                 no change = bad (need some sort of mnemonic to remember this)

Alice Fishburn

Your debate reader

Did last night's Pennsylvania debate drama unfold past your bedtime?

Here's a quick reader of bloggers who can give you your fix on a minute-by-minute basis:

-- Across the Pond

-- Andrew Sullivan

-- The Caucus

-- Wonkette

-- Washington Wire

What are the odds?

My associates on the Fink Tank (my column providing a statistical take on football) have introduced me to a riveting new website.

Called Politimetrics, it seeks to provide the probability that, for instance Hillary Clinton would reduce unemployment if elected.

Here's a short introduction to their method:

Who is the party candidate who would stand the most chances to win the presidency if designated as a candidate during the primaries?

Who is the candidate to the presidency who would be most likely to conduct a successful economic policy if elected to the White House? 

To compute this information, Politimetrics.com uses prices from two prediction markets from our partner Intrade. For instance we compute the probability that Clinton will decrease the unemployment rate, by (roughly) dividing the price of the event "Clinton will be elected and she will decrease the unemployment rate" by the price of the event "Clinton will be elected".

Technically, this gives us the conditional probability that "Clinton will decrease the unemployment rate IF she is elected". Comparing this to the same probability for other candidates allows voters to make more informed choices.

Naturally your faith in these probabilities depends upon your faith in the accuracy of prediction markets.

But I think their approach is fascinating.

Will someone please answer the phone?

Phones are ringing again all over the White House.

Hillary Clinton has just released another 3 a.m. ad, although this time her target is John McCain. And there's one noticable omission: the sleeping girl featured in the last ad has been cut.

Why?

Well she's now a 17 year old Obama supporter. Presumably she no longer needs Hillary to watch over her.

And here's John McCain's response. The telecom companies must be thrilled. Not a cell phone in sight.

Alice Fishburn

What exactly is Al Gore going to do?

Joe Klein calls it a silly idea. But not so silly that it has prevented him canvassing it to his major Democrat contacts and sticking in Time Magazine.

He wonders out loud whether the Dems might despair of their candidates and turn to Al Gore.

He describes party bigwigs as regarding this idea as both impossible and...well, an interesting solution to the party's problems.

I wonder why they think that.

Barack Obama, in my view almost bound to be the nominee, is quite plainly viable as a general election candidate. I think he is narrow favourite to win.

For a candidate with his level of primary round support to be dismissed by the party hierarchy he would have to threaten disaster for the party. He certainly comes nowhere close to that.

The idea of a Gore nomination is therefore not only ridiculous, but also entirely unnecessary. The supposed negative impact of the so-called chaos of the Democratic race will disappear the moment the candidacy is settled.

Gore as VP candidate? That is possible. It might be Obama's way of sealing the nomination deal.

(Hat tip: Brett)

Why can't a woman be more like a man?

The annual Classical Association conference, as everyone knows, is currently in full swing at Liverpool University. It is of course a hotbed of political debate.

One paper this morning addressed the topical issue of tears, reminding us that when Hillary Clinton wept during her New Hampshire campaign, her ratings went through the roof. But those with longer political memories, pointed out lecturer Dana Munteanu, will recall that in 1972 Edmund Muskie, then the front-runner for Democratic nomination, was so hurt by articles in the Manchester Union Leader during the his New Hampshire campaign, that he wept publicly. He was perceived as weak and lost the nomination.

Weeping, in Greek tragedy and now, is gender-specific. Here in the West, at least, a weeping woman is compassionate, but a weeping man is losing it.

The reason for this is hotly debated but it would seem to be partly social conditioning and partly hardwired gender difference. But for the moment the question remains: why can't a woman be more like a man? The answer is that it is not to her political advantage.

Alice Fordham

Twofer with Michael Gerson: Bush's man says Obama extraordinary political talent

"It will be a dramatic moment, one of the great culminating moments of American history". That is the verdict of Michael Gerson, on the prospect of President Barack Obama being sworn into office.

In this frank and fascinating Twofer interview, Gerson formerly chief speechwriter to President Bush, decribes himself as "very impressed" with Obama.

"I think he is an extraordinary political talent," says Gerson. "Likeable, a non-threatening liberal in the same way that Ronald Reagan was a non-threatening conservative. Eloquent, naturally eloquent, but also a compelling figure in the context of American history".

"It would be an historic day for him to take the oath of office".

Gerson also offers an acute analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of John McCain.

Admit it. The nomination struggle is all but over.

Turn the election inside out, look at it back to front, hold it upside down and I keep coming back to the same conclusion.

It is brilliantly summarised in this article on Politico.com:

One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.

Here, inspired by that article, are five reasons why no one is prepared to admit that it is all but over:

1. The New Hampshire surprise introduced a fear of making predictions.

And, indeed, it should make anyone pause before turning polls into a hard forecast. But the mathematical problem faced by Senator Clinton is a problem with votes already cast, not with ones still to be cast. The problem for her is not a forecast that she will lose, but a recognition that she has already almost certainly lost.

2. Why end a good story?

It is certainly true that for journalists the Clinton-Obama battle is the gift that keeps on giving. But this public fascination merely increases the responsibility to call it right.

3. The Clintons' ability to wriggle out of a tight spot has made everyone wary of writing them off.

Perfectly reasonable. But this doesn't mean that their claims to be able to see a way clear to the nomination should escape proper scrutiny.

This spot is tighter than the others they have wiggled out of. The superdelegates coming to their rescue in big enough numbers to overhaul Obama's lead is really extremely unlikely.

4. Anything could happen.

Yes, it could. Another Jeremiah Wright style episode could erupt. Yes it could. But this doesn't significantly increase the very small chance of a Hillary victory. Thinking it does is a common error in prediction. When assessing whether a second placed football team can overhaul the league leaders, pundits comment that it only takes one dropped match by the top side and their rivals will pull level.

They ignore the fact that it is just as likely that the second placed team will drop points. So unanticipated, unexpected events cut both ways.

5. A small chance is different from no chance.

A very important point this. Before Euro 2004 I described one country as having a 13 per cent chance of being the eventual winner "which is 13 per cent more chance than Greece have". Greece won. So it is wrong to argue that there is no chance for Hillary.

However, most articles talk of a race still wide open or, at best, of one in which Obama has a small advantage. This misrepresents the position. The truth is that it is overwhelmingly likely that Obama will be the nominee. And that Hillary won't be.

The coverage should reflect that, and it doesn't.

Are the superdelegates really a group?

What will the super delegates do?

Now that a Florida do-over seems less likely, the chances are that Barack Obama will approach the convention with a lead among pledged delegates of at least 100, and with 400 super delegates still to declare.

It has often been suggested that the super delegates wouldn't dare overturn the will of the voters. Thus they would favour Obama. Set against that is the idea that super delegates would understand that Obama had won many of his votes in caucuses not primaries. Thus they would back Hillary.

Both of these ideas have a problem - they view super delegates as a group rather than seeing each one as an individual. As a group super delegates might not wish to overturn the will of voters, say, but this will be only among many factors influencing each individual.

I remember during the recall vote on Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith, it was assumed that MPs wouldn't back him because to save his skin at such a late stage would make the party look silly.

But while no MP wanted the party to look silly, that didn't determine their own vote. And in the end Mr Duncan Smith came surprisingly close to hanging on.

Thus broad stabs at guessing which way super delegates will go based on theories about their responsibilites as a group are likely to miss the mark.

Things like personal relationships, individual political preferences and embarassment (forcing someone to support a candidate they don't want, but feel they know too well to turn down) will all be deciding factors.

What does this suggest? That it will be hard for either candidate to dominate the remaining 400 or so superdelegates.

They will split, sure, and probably Hillary's way. But for her to win by a margin of more than 100 is tough to see.

Obama's advantage at this stage is huge, really.

New attack ad for Obama

Dick Morris, former Clinton strategist, has scripted a suggestion for an Obama attack ad. Here's his advice to Barack:

The next time Hillary uses the recycled red phone ad, counter with one of your own. When the phone rings in the middle of the night, have a woman’s voice, with a flat Midwestern accent, answer it and say, “Hold on” into the receiver. Then she should shout, “Bill! It’s for you!”

So Hillary's alive is she?

Yes. But.

A couple of days ago Comment Central posted the Slate delegate counter. And now Jonathan Alter of Newsweek has used it to look at how delegates are breaking.

And when you start to do that sort of calculation it remains very hard indeed to see Senator Clinton winning.

Even if she wins super landslides in some remaining states she will be struggling to catch Obama.

What Texas and Ohio have given her is a break in the media clouds.

But the maths still looks bad for her.

We're loving the drama but isn't it really all over?

UPDATE: Tim Hames thinks it isn't

Your Ohio - Texas round up

Confused about what happened last night? The following articles will answer all your primary questions.

Gerard Baker in The Times: Hillary Clinton's prodigal coalition

Patrick Healy in The New York Times: In 2 battlegrounds, voters say, not yet

Jay Cost in Real Clear Politics: How Clinton won TX and OH

John Dickerson in Slate: She lives!

Dana Milbank in The Washington Post: Turbulence? What turbulence?

What should we expect in Ohio?

It's pretty tight in Texas and the Clinton lead in Ohio is small. What should we expect to happen between now and polling day?

There are two things to take account of - Obama's momentum and Clinton's ability to "close".

I've written before of Obama's momentum and how the Wisconsin result showed that it was kicking in. If this is right, then over the next couple of days we should expect to see an improving Obama poll rating in both states taking him clear of Hillary in Texas and eroding her Ohio lead.

And this will produce "Obama surging" headlines.

Then polling day will arrive.

Jay Cost presents an interesting analysis which suggests that Hillary might do better on polling day than the polls before that day imply.

On a regular basis she does better among those deciding on the day than among those deciding within a few weeks, or even three days, of the poll.

Why?

Not because she is a good closer, or because of her campaign. But simply because she is the default candidate for those who want to vote but can't make up their mind.

Though it is impossible to say for certain (it involves a guess about the speed of Obama's momentum), the figures allow you to make a guess.

Mine is that Obama's ratings will continue to improve for two or three more days, and Clinton's decline, before coming back to around where they are now on polling day.

All the US news you need

Keep checking out our excellent Across the Pond blog for top US election coverage.

The inexhaustible team live-blogged the Wisconsin primary last night and today's they're back with an update on the networks' snub to Clinton.

The 2008 election dictionary

Are you a PundIT girl? Or simply over the Hillary?

Boulton & Co points us towards Daily Candy's excellent election day lexicon. My favourite?

between Barack and a hard place
n. the sphere in which undecided democrats linger to contemplate the electability of candidates.

You can expand your political vocabulary here.

Alice Fishburn

Twofer with Gerard Baker - How close is the Democratic race?

In my latest Twofer, I ask Gerard Baker about the role of momentum in the Democratic race, who's going to win and how liberal Barack Obama really is.

By losing to Obama, are the Clintons winning?

On this morning's Today programme, the BBC's Justin Webb - generally an excellent reporter and covering the US elections very well - reported on events in South Carolina.

He asked whether in winning there, Barack Obama might really be losing.

He probably picked up the idea from former Clinton strategist Dick Morris. Here's how the theory goes. The Clintons fight Obama hard in South Carolina, arguing over which of them is better for blacks. The contest becomes a row about the black vote, with Bill and Hillary deliberately playing up the black nature of South Carolina.

Obama wins.

The media covers his victory in this way - Obama wins the right to be the black candidate. Obama's triumph is then seen as a narrow one, restricted to a heavily black state and not giving him momentum elsewhere.

There's more. Obama then becomes seen as the black candidate. Didn't he fight for that crown, ask the media? Well now he's got it, they reason, he can wear it. So by racialising the contest and losing, Hillary really wins.

That, in any case, is the theory.

I don't buy it.

Yesterday I wrote that much strategy is a myth, a piece of spin designed to make the best of defeats. This is a classic example. Sure, Dick Morris is not deliberately spinning for Hillary (he can't stand her) but he does think the Clintons are incredibly clever and is making even their setbacks look like a masterplan.

If they lose, they lose. That's why they are fighting not to lose.

10 reasons for Obama to pick Al Gore as his running mate

1. He brings experience to the ticket. Inexperience is Obama's greatest weak point.

2. He represented a southern state, so he would broaden the geographical base of Obama's campaign.

3. He would rouse the Democratic base, stoking their desire for revenge for 2000 and increasing the turnout on the Dem side. This would allow Obama to concentrate on swing voters.

4. He would bring lustre to the ticket, which could be important if facing John McCain. The Republican will not be able to boast a VP candidate who has won both an Oscar and a Nobel prize.

5. He is a good debater with an excellent track record in the VP debates.

6. He would push climate change up the agenda during the election, exposing Republican weaknesses.

7. He would bring the Democratic establishment behind Obama without him having to select Hillary.

8. He served in Vietnam, volunteering even though he opposed the war. This remains an issue and would certainly be one if McCain was the Republican candidate.

9. His record on terror and Iraq inside the Clinton White House was a good one. He would be able to deploy this to help Obama when foreign policy comes to the forefront.

10. His re-election would be exciting for the media and another first, helping the Obama bandwagon roll. No VP has run for a third term. But there is no law against it.

And wouldn't it be fun if Obama chose him and McCain chose Joe Lieberman?

(Hat Tip: Brett for the original idea)

Will Republicans face a split convention?

Mitt Romney's victory in Michigan may not mean much electorally (he was, after all, a favourite son), but it does rob John McCain of momentum. And this makes a split convention more likely.

What would happen then?

Jay Cost on Horserace Blog provides a superb guide to the convention. His most interesting point is that while the composition of the convention will be decided by the end of June, it will be hard to get any sort of deal between the candidates before the convention meets.

Why? Because these days delegates are often bound to candidates through several rounds of balloting.

If the Republicans do not have a clear winner things will get pretty sticky. Cost makes clear that in the old days conventions could be brokered by dishing out patronage jobs to loosen delegations.

Patronage jobs aren't so easy to promise nowadays nor delegations so free to shift their allegiance.

The Republicans could be on a one-way trip to disaster.

Results in! Predictions were out!

Clinton has trumped Obama, defying all best guesses. But this post on Obama and the Bradley effect gives one strong reason why not just the advance polls but the exit polls got it wrong.

Lots more debate about this in the blogosphere. Some good thoughts here and here.