Why John and Edward won't win the X Factor

The story in the Sun that the incredibly annoying - and monumentally talentless - John and Edward, lead the voting on the X Factor has led to a flurry of rumours that they might actually win the show.

A little bit of political analysis suggests that they will not.

It's not just that opinion polling has been scarce and methodologically flawed.

It's that leading the voting when there are 10 candidates - as there were on the weekend the Sun refers to -  is meaningless. It may involve having little more than 10 per cent of the vote.

The question is whether, as other candidates are eliminated, John and Edward's proportion of the vote has the capacity to rise much.  And I am pretty sure it doesn't.

They are the Marmite candidates. You either love them or hate them. The latter group is much larger than the former. So they will hit the buffers long before the final when they are required to have 50 per cent of the vote.

Now one thing could upset these calculations. The lack of electoral reform on the X Factor.The show still requires its 1832. For the moment, multiple voting is allowed.

Could then, a Jedward core vote strategy work? Their enthusiasts, with a ruthless get out the vote campaign, could see them home by voting in greater numbers.

I have always been dubious about such turnout theory. A slick on the day operation from a well organised base is worth only so much. I think the gap is too big to bridge.

I think Simon Cowell can relax. Soon he won't have John and Edward to kick around any more.