Why did John F Kennedy make such a hash of the Bay of Pigs and his summit meeting with Nikita Khrushchev in Vienna?
And how could the same man have dealt so competently with the Cuban Missile Crisis slightly over a year later?
The usual theory is that Kennedy gained experience and a healthy scepticism for official advice. Now a new book offers an alternative explanation.
In his riveting volume In Sickness and In Power, former Foreign Secretary and medic David Owen reviews the health and medication of leaders over the last century. The chapter on Kennedy is jaw-dropping.
Owen starts by convincingly asserting that Kennedy was much sicker than is commonly appreciated and certainly much sicker than was appreciated at the time. His Addison's disease was very debilitating and needed constant attention.
And there were other health troubles. During the Bay of Pigs fiasco Owen writes that Kennedy had: Constant and acute diarrhoea and a recurrence of his urinary tract infection.
Central to Owen's account is the idea that the administration of drugs to Kennedy for these various ailments was out of control.
In particular, without the knowledge of his other doctors and at the same time as they were giving him other drugs, he was being tended to by Max Jacobson, a doctor known as "Dr Feelgood" because of his reputation as a provider of amphetamines and pep pills. In time Jacobson's drug treatment became almost a recreational drug for Kennedy. Jacobson was later struck off.
Owen shows that is quite likely that Dr Feelgood, specially flown to Vienna, injected Kennedy with intravenous amphetamine just before he met Khrushchev.
Then later in the year Dr Hans Kraus took control of Kennedy's medication. He demanded total control and began using massage rather than injections to treat the President. He also got rid of Jacobson, telling Kennedy: If I ever heard he took another shot, I'd make sure it was known. No President with his finger on the red button has any business taking stuff like that.
By the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy was back on an even keel.
Owen has produced a compelling book. And even if drug use was only a part the story, it's a pretty convincing theory.
Dick Cheney is a man who loves his outdoor activities. But the White House may regret putting up a photograph of him fly-fishing, since it was pointed out that reflected in his shades is what looks like a naked woman. The most fun you can have without a permit? Cheney's grin seems to suggest so.
Check out the close-up here.
Lots of people liked Barack Obama's race speech last week. Christopher Hitchens was not among them.
He is particularly contemptuous of this Obama passage: I can no more disown him [Rev Jeremiah Wright] than I can my white grandmother - a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe.
Of which Hitchens says: You often hear it said, of some political or other opportunist, that he would sell his own grandmother if it would suit his interests. But you seldom, if ever, see this notorious transaction actually being performed.
If pictures are really worth a thousand words, anxious campaign staffers must face an additional worry as they peruse the papers each morning. What mocking sketch will the political cartoonists deliver today?
This fascinating New York Times piece asks four illustrators how they nail those perfect caricatures. Whose head looks like a keg of pilsner? Who has latent Nixon chromosomes? And who's been labelled as pre-Lincolnesque? Find out the story behind the pictures here.
Alice Fishburn
Can one state lead to the White House? Well, that's what Team Clinton hopes.
Traditionally, victors in Ohio have gone on to claim nominations and then the presidency. Here's Hillary herself:
No person has ever won the White House without winning the Ohio primary, in either party...Somehow the people of Ohio end up picking the winners.
But is she right? The Fact Checker sets us straight.
 This campaign season has been a dream come true for political memorabilia nerds everywhere.
We can wield our Hillary Clinton nutcracker with pride while wearing our delightfully nostalgic Stuck on Huck apron. And there's always the tantalising sense that there's something even better out there.
Could it be the Barack Obama body lotion?
Presidential Perfumes thinks so. The brainchild of April Cline - surely the embodiment of the US entrepreneurial spirit - these scents capture the essence of the three remaining candidates.
Dying to sport the aroma of Obama? Try this: Barack - Change you can believe in and a fragrance to match.
Clean citrusy notes of Bergamot and musk will energize you.
Or unable to pick a candidate? Well, what's wrong with slathering yourself in some John body cream, dabbing a little Hillary behind one ear and spritzing some Barack on your pillow?
Reports currently suggest that the Hillary option is ahead by a nose. But who knows where the smell of success might waft next?
Alice Fishburn
What should be first on the next US President's to-do list?
In this new FORA video, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright lays out a few tasks.
If you can't see this video, click here
 Bid farewell to 'E pluribus unum'. Gone are the days of 'One nation under God.'
According to Freakonomics, the new American motto is: Our Worst Critics Prefer to Stay
Hardly morale-boosting but as Stephen J. Dubner goes on to point out, it: is, while perhaps not outrightly uplifting, a wonderfully concise acknowledgment of the paradox that a capitalist democracy inevitably is: a place that is often well worth complaining about, and which allows you to complain as loudly as you wish.
And complaining, of course, is what it's all about. The patriotic propensity to moan was captured in our own competition to find a slogan for Britain. The Freakonomics motto now joins these illustrious Comment Central ranks: No Motto Please, We’re British (Britain)
Chips for tea, chips on shoulders (Scotland)
And a host of Australian suggestions
So...Who's up next?
Alice Fishburn
Confused by all this delegate chatter?
Make your own calculations with this handy Slate gadget
 Bored with the 2008 elections already? Well, says the media, roll on 2028.
When it comes to scooping the political gene pool, Chelsea Clinton brooks no opposition. This week, the cover story of New York Magazine speculates on her future. Chelsea is in many ways the ideal amalgam of her parents’ political talents—as Bill Clinton himself put it once, "She has her mother’s character and her father’s energy."
And the Republicans are looking ahead as well. Yesterday, the news broke that Mitt Romney's 32-year-old son, Josh, is contemplating a run for Congress.
Let the fight begin.
Alice Fishburn
 Over on Conservative Home Tim Montgomerie writes:
There are always lessons we can learn from American politics but it is dangerous to import techniques and trends without thinking.
Good point Tim, I'll try not to.
Tim lists three lessons taught by the US over the last few years - that zero tolerance crime policy works, that the free enterprise low tax US economy outperforms ours and that innovative welfare reform improves lives and cuts bills.
I am well aware of all these things. I am in favour of all of them.
The point I have been making is a different one. It is that conservatives in the US are facing a difficult political climate and some are dealing with it by rethinking their message and the way they express it.
This is true even on tax.
We've always kept a close eye on US political trends over here and we shouldn't miss this one.
The Daily Dish nominates this gem as the best-worst video of the campaign trail so far. Watch in awe as a Mike Huckabee supporter takes us back to the 80s.
Do you have a better offering? All suggestions welcome.
Freud would have had a field day dissecting the current race for the White House. Just imagine the pronouncements he might have made on Barack Obama's parentage, John McCain's family, and the Clinton marriage.
Still, despite his absence, the psychologists soldier on. In this interesting Slate article, Emily Yoffe applies one form of personality analysis to the candidates.
Ever wondered about the masculine side of Hillary Clinton? Or why John McCain is willing to take the risks that he does? Well, these profiles of the Idealist, Artisan and Guardian just might answer your questions. No prizes for guessing who falls into the first category though.
Alice Fishburn
Ladies and Gentlemen, let me present the Presidents of the United States.
Douglas, Pullman, Ford, Freeman, Kline, Sellers...
Not the roster you're used to, perhaps, but the one offered up by Yahoo Movies in this fantastic list of screen presidents.
But who's missing? John Travolta in Primary Colours? Martin Sheen in the West Wing?
All suggestions welcome.
The Clinton-Obama race may be neck and neck. But gamblers are going to town on the betting for VP.
This week brings new handicaps by both The Wall Street Journal and The Economist. Al Gore is favourite in the first lot of odds but finishes nowhere when it comes to the second. Sadly, it seems there's no easy money here either.
Alice Fishburn
The AP counts them one way. The New York Times another. Confused about which presidential candidate has the most delegates? You're not alone.
Check out The Fact Checker for as good a guess as anyone's making.
Here's a quiz question. Mitt Romney won 25 delegates in the winner-takes-all state of Montana on Super Tuesday. How many votes did he get?
I'll help you by giving you a clue. In order to win 26 delegates from Arkansas yesterday, Mike Huckabee needed 120,776 voters.
Give up?
The answer is 625 votes. That wasn't Romney's winning margin incidentally. It was the total number of votes cast for the candidate.
Ron Paul came second with 400 votes, John McCain scored 358 and Mike Huckabee 245. The total number of voters was thus 1,628 in a state with approximately 740,000 people of voting age.
I don't want to single out Montana or Romney. In Alaska Barack Obama won 9 delegates with the support of a grand total of 302 people. He required 51, 124 to win the same number of delegates from Delaware.
What is going on?
By putting together so many state elections so early, many local parties were not ready to have their main state primaries on the same day. But they didn't want the cost of holding two primaries. Thus the caucus has had a revival.
It is, however, ludicrously undemocratic.
It's not as if the use of caucuses leaves the result pretty much the same, with any distortions simply being a reason for one state to be cross with another. No. The use of caucuses made a big impact on the distribution of delegates on super Tuesday.
Romney, Huckabee and Obama all gained delegates as a result of this system that they otherwise might not have won. Caucuses (and state conventions) clearly favour the choice and enthusiasm of activists over those of ordinary voters.
As Christopher Hitchens put it, in his marvellous polemic against the Iowa caucus: In a genuine democratic process, these Tammany tactics would long ago have been declared illegal. But this is not a democratic process, and besides, as my old friend Michael Kinsley used to say about Washington, the scandal is never about what's illegal. It's about what's legal.
There was so much fuss about what happened in Florida in 2000. But whatever your view of that, isn't this at least as bad?
Now it has to be said, that a British person like me writing this is pretty rich. We don't have anything remotely as open as the primary system.
But I do respectfully suggest to my American friends that it is time for the caucus system to go.
Confused by the delegate counting system? Can't tell a caucus from a chad?
Why not turn to our intrepid colleagues at Across the Pond? They've been blogging away all night to bring you everything you need to sound informed this morning.
And we'll be back soon with more Super Tuesday breakdowns.
An excellent piece by David Brooks on John McCain this morning in The New York Times, reflecting on the task of turning from insurgent into front runner.
It contained this observation: McCain seems to be burdened by the emotional cost of the war in Iraq, by the gravity of young people dying. But F.D.R. was a happy wartime campaigner and to compete with the Democrats in the fall, McCain will have to reconnect with the spirit of this moment.
Generally I support this idea, always being for uplift over pessimism. But, oddly, Brooks is wrong about F.D.R.
Martin Seligman in his book Learned Optimism shares the results of his study of the optimism of Presidents and Presidential candidates.
Together with colleagues he combed through the addresses made in every presidential contest for the last century, assessing the optimism of arguments made in texts. In every election the more optimistic candidate won. Except for three - the three won by Franklin Roosevelt.
FDR, it turns out rather surprisingly, was not a Happy Warrior.
Check out this great chart from The Economist (click to enlarge). It answers the burning question. Which presidential candidate has squandered the most money on their campaign to win over delegates? The most efficient is Mike Huckabee, who claims 40 delegates for an outlay of $1.6m, a rate of about $42,000 per delegate compared with, for example, Mr Romney's $908,000.
The preacher beating out the private equity manager when it comes to fiscal restraint? Now there's a surprise.
Alice Fishburn
In the media circus surrounding the primaries, it's amazing that Bush's final State of the Union address captured our attention at all. But some journalists did manage to train their fickle focus on the important issues at hand. Namely:
-- Would 'I rise above partisanship' Obama snub Clinton?
-- Would 'I bear no grudges' Hillary make a beeline for Ted Kennedy?
-- Would the VP make a comeback in the Cheney-Pelosi blinking competition after last year's dramatic loss?
The New York Times even grappled with a fascinating graphic. Their breakdown of Bush's eight State of the Unions shows which issues have waxed and waned during his tenure.
The number of mentions of Iraq is particularly interesting. 0 in 2001, 2 in 2002, 22 in 2003, 24 in 2004, 27 in 2005, 16 in 2006, 34 in 2007, 38 in 2008.
Would anyone care to place bets now about its appearance in 2009?
Alice Fishburn
 Another election cycle. Another South Carolina primary. Another flag debate. This time, it was Mick Huckabee who kickstarted the argument with his rabble-rousing statement to South Carolinians:
You don't like people from outside the state coming in and telling you what to do with your flag. In fact, if somebody came to Arkansas and told us what to do with our flag, we'd tell 'em what to do with the pole; that's what we'd do.
Race relations. State's rights. Major presidential candidate. It's the kind of thing the press would usually jump on but, thus far, the media has remained unusually quiet. Quiet that is, until now. In Slate today, the excellent Christopher Hitchens brings the ruck to the reporters. The preceding week had involved some trivial but intense parsing of an exchange between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama about Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. But just let the real thing occur, with a full-blooded and full-throated bellow of old-fashioned authentic racism, and you can see the entire press refusing to cover it for fear of having to confront the real and unvarnished thing (and perhaps for reasons having to do with other "sensitivities" as well.)
You can read the whole article here. And watch those column pages. The next saga in the flag fight may be upon us.
Alice Fishburn
A brilliant find. Hillary assuming the role of flight attendant aboard her campaign plane. She opens with the traditional seatbelt warnings: I've learned lately that things can get awfully bumpy when least expected.....
Then goes on to drum home the fact that whether on, off or in the air - she's always on message. Thank you for joining us at Hill Force One. We know you have choices when you fly, and so we are grateful that you chose the plane with the most experienced candidate.
Definitely worth a watch. Up next. Obama explains how fixing his campaign bus is just like fixing America...
 Slate's Darren Garnick had just one mission this primary season:
A sucker for political kitsch, I set out to photograph my 5-month-old daughter, Dahlia, in the arms of every candidate with a prayer of making it to the White House.
My rules were simple:
1. No actual kissing. No Democrat or Republican is putting saliva on Baby Dahlia.
2. No pictures with former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel. He's way too creepy.
Here's the final result. Guess who she was photographed with twice?
Alice Fishburn
The South Carolina primary is nearly upon us. And here to guide us through the final Republican pitches is Jon Stewart. He may not have writers but the ghost of Ronald Reagan belongs to no Guild. Alice Fishburn
[UPDATE TUESDAY 11.30: Fresh poll news and whether Hillary is doomed]
What about the weekend polls in New Hampshire? They seem to be bouncing about a bit, don't they.
Real Clear Politics records the numbers since Iowa. They show Obama +10, +13, +3, +9, +12, +1, -2, +12. The average is +7.2.
The basic explanation is the margin of error. Most of these polls have a sample of around 500 or so with a margin of error of plus/minus 5. That's pretty big and allows wildly different results from the same samples.
But there is one other reason to treat this bunch with caution. They are weekend polls, all of them.
One of the best US poll analysers is Mark Blumenthal on his site Pollster.com. He warns us all to beware weekend polls: or more specifically, surveys based on interviews completed entirely on Friday night and Saturday. Most campaign pollsters are reluctant to put too much faith in interviews conducted at those times, when younger and more mobile voters are less likely to be home.
In my 20+ years of looking at surveys conducted for campaigns, I can remember only one we did based solely on Friday and Saturday interviewing.
In that case even after we weighted by every demographic variable available to make it comparable to others conducted just days before, we produced a weighted sample that appeared much more engaged in politics and better informed about issues and candidates (and thus, more likely to be "certain" about their initial vote preferences).
He also says the vote in New Hampshire is very fluid, with many still undecided. I think this is much more likely to help Obama than hinder him, though.
 Spot the difference.
(Hat Tip: Chris)
I don't mean to spoil the fun, but how important are the Iowa caucuses really?
Over on his excellent Horserace Blog, Jay Cost has been looking at what political scientists have to say about momentum.
Most of it is just providing academic categories for the obvious I am afraid. But one finding was striking.
It concerns the predictive power of the early voting patterns: For a long while, political scientists have known that you can do a pretty good job predicting the outcome of a nomination battle based on a few basic variables, all of which are known by the end of the pre-election year: national poll position, money raised, television exposure, endorsements, etc.
Recently, however, scholars have found that when you add the results of the New Hampshire primary to these models - the predictive power jumps through the roof, from around 60% to upwards of 90% (though the effect is muted when we look at just the Republicans).
Yet when it comes to Iowa: Researchers have found that Iowa does not exert the independent force that New Hampshire does. This is how DePaul's Wayne Steger characterized the Iowa caucuses this year in Political Research Quarterly:
The results of the Iowa Caucuses do not significantly affect the prediction of the aggregate primary vote.
So the importance of tomorrow's voting is really restricted to its impact on voting in New Hampshire. That's the real game.
It's not just the candidates struggling along the political trail. Spare a thought for the political correspondents too. You can check out the ups and downs of life in New Hampshire at John Dickerson's excellent campaign diary.
Alice Fishburn
Sure you know that Huckabee's surging and Clinton's stumbling. But can you remember which candidate was described by Rick Perry as a pickup truck with one undesirable option?
Test your knowledge with this hilarious holiday quiz from Gail Collins
Alice Fishburn
 Check out the cover of this week's National Review.
Clean-shaven, chiselled of jaw, bronzed but not orange -- this Mitt Romney would never be caught spending $400 on an Edwards-ian haircut. Only one question remains. How did they lure Norman Rockwell back from the grave to recapture that forties feeling?
Alice Fishburn
Forget about foreign intelligence. And cast that climate change bill from your mind. The key issue facing Congress this week is bound to rank among their great historical moments.
Should they vote in favour of Christmas?
Offering proof that the silly season can come early, Congress debated a motion that once perplexed Scrooge himself: Whereas many Christians and non-Christians throughout the United States and the rest of the world, celebrate Christmas as a time to serve others: Now, therefore, be it
Resolved, That the House of Representatives--
(1) recognizes the Christian faith as one of the great religions of the world;
(2) expresses continued support for Christians in the United States and worldwide;
(3) acknowledges the international religious and historical importance of Christmas and the Christian faith.
Would-be grinches will be disappointed to know that the bill sailed through by 372-9.
Phew. That's alright then. Carry on...
(Hat Tip: Crooks and Liars)
Alice Fishburn
 Overnight some exciting news. At least it was to me. The rest of you can decide on your own amusements.
I received an email from the US conservative journalist David Frum announcing publication of a new book. And it is a call for conservative modernisation.
Round the edges there have been conservatives urging change on the Republicans - Andrew Sullivan, Jim Pinkerton. But Frum is a mainstream figure and, justly, a big noise in conservative intellectual circles.
His new ideas open the prospect of a transatlantic effort to develop a fresh conservative message. The intellectual energy of US conservatism is a powerful force on the right in this country. As the US changes, it will help change the UK.
Frum's book is called Comeback - Conservatism that can win again. It starts with a downbeat assessment of Republican fortunes. And then argues: that the ideas that won elections for conservatives in the 1980s have done their job. Republicans can no longer win elections on taxes, guns, and promises to restore traditional values. It's time now for a new approach.
Among other things Frum will be calling for:
- A conservative commitment to make private-sector health insurance available to every American
- Lower taxes on savings and investment financed by higher taxes on energy and pollution
- Federal policies to encourage larger families
- Major reductions in unskilled immigration
- A genuinely compassionate conservatism, including a conservative campaign for prison reform and government action against the public health disaster of obesity
- A new conservative environmentalism that promotes nuclear power in place of coal and oil
- Higher ethical standards inside the conservative movement and the Republican party
- A renewed commitment to expand and rebuild the armed forces of the United States--to crush terrorism--and get ready for the coming challenge from China
I think this book could prove very important. It is published on December 31st.
Looking at the US polls just now, I realise that I haven't been paying enough attention to Mitt Romney.
Yes, Giuliani seems miles ahead. He's 13.3 per cent up on his nearest rival, and his nearest rival isn't Romney (it's Fred Thompson). But glance at the state polling and things look different. Romney holds clear leads over Rudy in Iowa and in New Hampshire.
So his strategy is to get the Big Mo from these states and carry them into the states where he isn't known. Could it work?
Jay Cost on the Horserace blog says: Nobody knows
But then he argues: For Romney to develop the momentum that he needs to take Giuliani down on February 5 - he will have to have decisive wins in several of the early contests. This could be problematic. Huckabee is on the rise in Iowa - and a strong second might lessen the luster of Romney's win (and, of course, Romney would be in huge trouble if Huckabee bests him).
Giuliani and McCain are currently both stuck in second place in New Hampshire, but both are within striking distance. Again, a Romney loss in New Hampshire (especially to Giuliani) would be a big problem for him. And South Carolina is a dead heat between Giuliani and Romney - with Thompson not far behind in third.
My feeling at this point is that this kind of mixed bag helps Giuliani.
Still, I think Romney has to be taken seriously.
His attempt to recreate himself as a traditional conservative, when his record shows him a liberal Republican has been unedifying. But it does allow him to fight as a centrist, should he choose to do so.
In the New Yorker Ryan Lizzi profiles Romney, or at least Romney's politics. All the flip-flopping stuff is there, naturally, but there is a brilliant section on Romney's religion. He starts with a quote from an historian of the Mormon church: A cult, when it grows up, becomes a culture, and the people who are a part of it take on an ethnic identity, a peoplehood. Romney is not Mormon the way, say, Ted Kennedy is Catholic. Romney is Mormon the way Ted Kennedy is Irish.
And continues: Romney’s cultural Mormonism is in some ways more important to understanding him than his theological Mormonism. As governor, after all, Romney had a history of supporting positions that were at odds with the practices of the Church. He has opposed cigarette taxes and loosened restrictions on alcohol sales, even though the L.D.S. strongly discourages its members from smoking and drinking.
The back half of the profile is devoted to Romney the management consultant, probably the persona he would adopt during a general election campaign.
I must say the New Yorker piece didn't make me want to rush out and send him a donation. But I don't have a vote.
The holidays are comin' and here's a question. What would you rather spend your money on: family festivities or the '08 candidates?
Well, exactly.
No wonder some exciting - and eccentric - funding strategies have started to emerge. Slate's excellent Trailhead does the digging: If your mother's stuffing recipe isn't good enough, then try the Edwards family's. Taking a page out of Ann Romney's book, the Edwards campaign offers recipes as a reward for making a donation to the campaign. Dishes include: macaroni and cheese casserole and sweet potatoes with apples. Unclear if milquetoast is on the menu.
Or you could splash your cash on a tile in the photo collage of Huckabee's life. Go on. You know you want to.
Alice Fishburn
Is a cyber-Giuliani as popular as a flesh-and-blood one? Not necessarily. Hitwise, a service that records visitors to the 08ers' websites, has discovered that the Republican traffic race is led by some dark horses.
Ron Paul, trailing in the polls, is way out in front (22.52% of the market share) with fellow struggler Mike Huckabee in hot pursuit on 14.93%. To put this into some kind of context, the trio of real-world frontrunners (Giuliani, Romney and McCain) barely scrape together 12% collectively.
Perhaps the only unsurprising result is that the virtual Fred Thompson sinks into the same mid-table anonymity as his reality-based twin.
(Hat Tip: Slate)
Lawrence Tallis
Want to know how much time Barack Obama has devoted to campaigning in Iowa? How about Mitt Romney in South Carolina?
These brilliant New York Times maps supply all the answers you could want.
Alice Fishburn
A Saturday Night Live sketch worth watching as 'Hillary Clinton' and the other Democratic candidates get down at a Halloween party. Includes a heavy-hitting surprise guest.
Alice Fishburn
Some interesting takeaway points from The Telegraph's new list.
1) Two bloggers figure in the top twenty.
2) Hillary hasn't caught up with Bill. But Elizabeth Edwards leaves her husband in the dust.
3) The Terminator makes the top ten - of the liberal list. Might the Kennedy clan reclaim him as one of their own?
Do you agree with The Telegraph's take? Let us know.
Alice Fishburn
George Bush has just 446 days and 9 hours left in office before he rides off into the sunset. Will Hillary Clinton be hot on his trail? Or might the Republicans hold the White House for a third term?
Enter the Across the Pond blog from the always stimulating Gerard Baker and his top US team. This new addition aims to bring you all the news from Washington's frontline in the months leading up to the election: The aim is to offer a Janus-like look at what is sure to be the most closely observed presidential election in history. For non-American readers, a lively daily guide and digest to the campaign and its implications for America and the world. For Americans, the outsider’s perspective, a glimpse of what the rest of the world thinks about you as you choose your (and our) next leaders.
Saddle up, readers. It's going to be an interesting ride.
There's one Halloween costume out there that really might frighten the neighbours. Forget about Spiderman. Chris Dodd has suggested that children dress as him for trick-and-treating.
Not much preparation needed - just colouring their hair white, lugging around a copy of the Constitution and brushing up on some policy proposals.
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