David Davis may not have done David Cameron much of a favour yesterday but, if I've understood correctly, today the Irish have.
The Tories have been stuck with a pretty serious problem over Europe. What should they promise to do about the provisions of the Lisbon treaty? If by the time they got into power the treaty had been ratified everywhere, they would have had an ugly choice between promising to do nothing about the treaty they said was crucial or seeking to renegotiate a fully enacted treaty.
Renegotiations would have been no minor matter because Lisbon consolidates all the other treaties.
Now, if I'm right, they have received a big piece of luck. They can fight the election promising to oppose a treaty not yet enforced. Indeed a treaty they could argue may never be enforced
The fundamental difficulty of actually being in office with a Eurosceptic programme remains. But the Irish have made fighting the Euro elections (certainly) and the general election (probably) a whole lot easier.
 Oooh. This is so much more exciting than Colbert's presidential run.
Guess which of the many hilarious transvestites out there recently revealed his political aspirations?
Yup. It's Eddie Izzard.
Here's how he announced his plans to Newsweek: I do like people and trying to make things work. We've got to make it work in Europe. People are very worried about sovereignty and the loss of sovereignty. I think the stakes are if we don't make the European Union work, then the world is screwed. End of story.
If anyone can provide the EU saga with a spark of interest, it would be Izzard. Sadly early indicators suggest he may already have adopted their mind-numbing approach to vocabulary. Do you have any big ideas for Europe?
Logical governance is the thing. It already exists. It's called subsidiarity, which is based on Catholic theology and is basically the idea that governance happens at its logical level.
Still, let's remember that Izzard is already bilingual.
And bravura linguistic performances like this one will certainly brighten up Brussels.
Alice Fishburn
Silvio Berlusconi, usually so modest, said this weekend that, if he had to choose one luncheon partner: “My Latin is good enough that I believe I could even have a lunch with Julius Caesar.”
Oh. Forgive us, Silvio, but we sort of assumed you were so old you used to lunch with Caesar all the time.
In this new FORA video, classicist Bruce Thornton argues that Europe has abandoned the Western Christian tradition to which it owes its greatness. Find out if you agree with him here.
If you can't see this video, click here
This should be fun.
Gordon Brown can't speak French. And Nicolas Sarkozy can't speak English.
There was I thinking it was the other way round.
The Foreign Secretary began his new blog a couple of weeks back with a post on Burma. Here's one of the comments posted in reply: I think it beggars belief that you are upset about the lack of democracy in Burma, when we have none in the UK. We demand a referendum on the Euro Treaty.
Yesterday in the Commons, Michael Connarty talked of Miliband's European deal as "peace in our time". Miliband responded sharply. And he was right.
I favour a referendum on the European treaty, largely because Labour promised one at the election on essentially the same document.
Whether or not the treaty itself is of first-rate constitutional importance is a subject we can debate all night. But there is no question in my mind that promising a referendum on a topic in a manifesto in order to take it off the table at an election and withdrawing the promise afterwards is a constitutional issue of huge importance.
But this does not justify the use of idiotic, disproportional language comparing the treaty provisions to an invasion by the Nazis or the Burmese tyranny.
What language will be left to Eurosceptics if insult inflation is allowed to rage like this?
 So let’s now turn to Belgian politics. But only for a laugh – because as political gaffes go, this one is pretty serious:
Yves Leterme (the new Prime Minister of Belgium) has not yet been officially sworn in but has already lost the confidence of half his country after reciting the opening lines of the Marseillaise - the French anthem - when asked if he knew the words to his country’s national song.
Belgium’s francophone newspapers today likened the gaffe to Nicolas Sarkozy, the French President, breaking into “God Save the Queen” on Bastille Day.
Watch it below. And just, just in case you are interested in the delicate Belgian sensibilities on this matter, The Economist’s Charlemagne column explains further: Brussels has played host to many lost causes over the years. Charlemagne's favourite is the harmlessly dotty rattachiste movement, which seeks to split Belgium into two — a Dutch-speaking north and a French-speaking south and then ask France to absorb the second as an extension of its territory. It is a doomed campaign, not least because France shows no enthusiasm for it. Yet over 26,000 Belgians voted for the main rattachiste party in last month's general election. This makes no sense, until one realises that those voters do not really believe they will be joining France any time soon. Their vote is rather a Francophone bellow of frustration at the dominance of Dutch-speakers in an increasingly divided country.
And for those who remain interested, here are the words of “Brabaçonne”, the Belgian national anthem. After centuries in slavery,
The Belgian coming out of the tomb
Reconquered through his courage
His name, his rights and his flag.
And your sovereign and proud hand,
Now, undaunted people,
Engraved on your old banner:
The King, the Law, the Freedom!
Engraved on your old banner:
The King, the Law, the Freedom!
The King, the Law, the Freedom
A tempting invitation drops onto The Times doormat. The Friends of Europe are having a dinner, and a very special occasion it is too.
The President's Dinner 2007 is to be held in Brussels Airport on the 4th October. Invitees are breathlessly informed that they can "Join Europe's High Fliers" including "A galaxy of past and present European Commissioners and Top Officials".
The best offer however is this: Friends of Europe will be welcoming Almost ALL Belgian Prime Ministers.
Reserve me a seat on the EuroStar someone, quick!
A couple of days ago, in a post on Gordon Brown's decision not to hold a European referendum I concluded: I've discovered in the past that issues are like films. William Goldman, the screenwriter once said of whether a movie would be a hit that "no one knows anything". So I suppose it is possible that the referendum issue won't go anywhere. It's also possible that Conservatives will look obsessive, chasing the issue again.
It's far more likely, I think, that it will be a big negative for Labour.
My esteemed colleague Peter Riddell reaches a different conclusion today. At the end of an admirable short survey of the issues involved he writes: Mr Blair and Mr Brown believe that Mr Cameron is going through the motions, demanding a referendum to keep the sceptics happy but unlikely to carry on with a sustained, high-profile campaign.
This still leaves Mr Brown with awkward decisions of timing on when to push through the necessary legislation. My hunch is that, for all the public’s doubts, this treaty will not derail the Brown premiership.
I think that since the weekend the balance of probabilities has tilted in Peter's direction.
Tony Blair has often being King in the House of Commons. The key is that he finds the very best arguments to advance his position. When the arguments aren't there he is miserable.
But today, when the statement on the European summit was being debated, he managed to be relaxed and strong while completely blathering. It was the reverse of his usual method - there was wit but no attempt at an argument at all.
He still hasn't properly explained how he could have agreed to a referendum before the election and is withdrawing his promise now.
The one argument that he could have deployed - that there is now an opt out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights - looks very ropey.
Here is the Financial Times leader column this morning: Mr Blair tried to prevent the charter on fundamental rights from being made legally binding. He failed. But he has won a lengthy protocol insisting that it cannot be used to challenge UK laws: in effect, it is another opt-out. It may not be legally enforceable, for it discriminates in the application of fundamental rights
This morning the Observer has a MORI poll putting Labour ahead and both Iain Dale and Conservativehome tell Tories not to panic.
Why are they right?
Not just because MORI don't past vote weight, making their poll irrelevant. Not just because (as Conservativehome argues) a bounce for Brown was always to be expected.
But because Brown has made a huge strategic blunder.
Failing to put the new EU treaty to a referendum having promised to do so does two things. First, it underlines the idea that Brown is untrustworty, reneging on a big, easily understood, promise. Second, it provides Tories and non-Tories on the right (eg tabloid commentators) with a simple, popular issue that makes them want to stick with Caemron despite other compromises.
Lord Owen puts the case for a referendum excellently in this morning's paper.
I've discovered in the past that issues are like films. William Goldman, the screenwriter once said of whether a movie would be a hit that "no one knows anything". So I suppose it is possible that the referendum issue won't go anywhere. It's also possible that Conservatives will look obsessive, chasing the issue again.
It's far more likely, I think, that it will be a big negative for Labour.
Ben Brogan has been blogging from the EU summit. And (as usual) brilliantly too (really, don't miss it).
Among the gems, is this report on the behaviour of the Polish Prime Minister: In an interview for Polish national radio, he has accused Germany of murdering 26 million Poles, leaving his country at a numerical disadvantage in the EU's new population-weighted voting system.
He said: "We are only demanding one thing, that we get back what was taken from us. If Poland had not had to live through the years of 1939-45, Poland would be today looking at the demographics of a country of 66m"
Then again, Ben himself clearly hasn't forgotten the war. His front page story this morning in the Mail refers to: the summit being held in Germany
Well up to a point, Ben. But after the war Brussels went back to being in Belgium.
Mr Blair and Mr Brown argue that they will not need to have a referendum as long as their "red lines" are not crossed.
But it is not as simple as that.
The language dealing with opt outs and so-called red lines will be complicated. The question of whether the red lines have been crossed will be one of judgement. And a referendum would be justified for that reason alone.
 "Gordon Brown would let Britain have a vote on Europe".
So says the Daily Mail this morning. But read carefully, this offer is not all it seems. Mr Brown will have a referendum only in the unlikely event that Mr Blair compromises on the "red line" issues the two men have agreed.
Is this sustainable? I doubt it.
Here's one question I haven't seen asked. Would Parliament allow Mr Brown to pass a Bill without a referendum clause included? It is pretty close call, I would have thought, in the Commons and the Lords.
It all depends on the Liberals. Generally they favour referendums, but they also favour anything Europe favours.
So the Pinstripe Radical has a choice to make.
An open secret maybe, but those rumours about Tinky Winky are true. Here’s the proof: The Tellytubbies are set to be banned in Poland after a government media watchdog decided they encouraged homosexuality.
Government controlled public TV may said that the children's TV programme had fallen foul of Poland's government appointed Children's Rights Spokesman, who believes that the show is "gay propaganda".
A special committee has been appointed to examine the claims including allegations that Tinky Winky's handbag was breaking down gender barriers and encouraging homosexuality.
Of course, this is silly news, but it’s worth taking seriously because it’s one of many stories about the rise of homophobia that are coming out of Eastern Europe. Such as this one.
 Andrew Sullivan describes yesterday’s scene in Moscow:
A new low-point. Today, a homophobic mob set upon a group of Russians and Europeans who were trying to present Moscow's mayor, Yuri Luzhkov, with a memo from 40 members of the European parliament requesting that gay Russians be permitted to assemble freely in the city. The cops arrested the gay activists - not the violent mob.
So is this just a cultural and moral issue that us “liberal” westerners just can’t understand. Maybe. But I prefer this argument from Peter Tatchell, one of the gay campaigners that were attacked in Russia. With the demise of communism, religious fundamentalism and ultra-nationalism are filling the void. Homophobia is the hallmark of these reactionary movements. Queers are a new scapegoat.
Worrying. But Tatchell ends on a note of optimism. Yet unbowed and defiant, they are often leading the resistance to authoritarianism and spearheading the struggle for democracy and human rights. Bravo the gays!
Murad Ahmed
Europe, as it gets greyer and more arthritic, risks becoming an old people's home. Slow decline, and then fall. Wrong. Nicholas Ebersdadt and Hans Groth have an interesting article in The International Herald Tribune: Its aging population is exceptionally healthy. As a result, its people are more capable of remaining productive into their advanced years now than they used to be, and perhaps even more so than their American counterparts. "Healthy aging" in fact may turn out to be a trump card for enhancing prosperity and international competitiveness - if Europeans are willing to play it as such.
For example: Western Europeans' robust health could translate to competitive advantages. For example, Western Europeans have distinctly better odds of surviving their working years than do Americans. This difference affects economic potential, not least because longevity shifts people's cost-benefit calculus about whether to pursue higher education: The prospect of living longer generally encourages investment in learning and skills and thus facilitates higher productivity.
So hooray then. We don't have to breed like mad or euthanase the unproductive, we just have to crack the whip over the oldies. Actually, let's not be too optimistic says the demographer Phillip Longman: In the United States, for example, the dramatic increases in obesity and sedentary lifestyles are already causing disability rates to rise among the population 59 and younger. Researchers estimate that this trend will cause a 10–20 percent increase in the demand for nursing homes over what would otherwise occur from mere population aging, and a 10–15 percent increase in Medicare expenditures on top of the program's already exploding costs. Meanwhile, despite the much ballyhooed "longevity revolution," life expectancy among the elderly in the United States is hardly improving. Indeed, due to changing lifestyle factors, life expectancy among American women aged 65 was actually lower in 2002 than it was in 1990, according to the Social Security Administration. The same declines in population fitness can now be seen in many other nations and are likely to overwhelm any public health benefits achieved through medical technology. According to the International Association for the Study of Obesity, an "alarming rise in obesity presents a pan-European epidemic."
I suspect that both opinions are right. America and Europe will have a geriatric underclass of the fat, sick and unproductive, as well as a golden oldie majority who are fit, active and a rich resource that society should draw on. Class, as ever, will out.
Robbie Millen
 Anne Applebaum has written a fascinating article about the growing but divided anti-Putin movement and the growing paranoia of the Kremlin.
Most recently, the language used publicly about President Putin’s opponents has begun to change too. No longer tolerated as powerless oddballs, they have begun to appear in the press in a new, more demonic guise. Kasparov is a particular target: last week, the website Pravda.ru called him a ‘political pawn who has sold his soul to the traitors who plot Russia’s demise’ as well as a ‘wild-eyed Azeri Berezovsky supporter’ who ‘sits amidst his Western habits in his millionaire apartment’. The same article called the new dissident organisations a ‘motley army of deviants, criminals, wannabe politicians, fraudsters and gangsters on the fringes of Russian society’. Nice, no?
Politics is rough and dirty in Russia. And it's going to get more brutal. Applebaum also points to the new Anglophobic nature of Russian rhetoric: Embedded in the insults is a deep, Soviet-style paranoia about foreigners, who are suspected of supporting this motley army of deviants with money and asylum. Though America is usually the main target — the claim that the US funds Chechen terrorism comes up regularly — Britain has begun to play a prominent role in this line of public propaganda too. Since agreeing to speak at a small opposition conference, organised by Kasparov and Kasyanov, the British ambassador has been followed and harassed by a group of thuggish nationalist Kremlin supporters, one of whom accused him of assault. (‘When I go out of the house to buy cat food, they follow me and start waving banners,’ he has said.) Now that London has become the residence of choice for exiled oligarchs and ex-KGB dissidents — Berezovsky is wanted by Russian police, after all — it isn’t hard to find headlines referring to the ‘British Bullshit Corporation’ (following a news item on Siberian pollution: ‘Suppose the BBC tried for once to report the truth about Russia instead of distorting it?’) and articles gloating over the British hostages captured by Iran (Pravda.ru wrote gleefully last week that the hostage incident had ‘humiliated’ Britain, destroying forever the ‘myth of their stoicism’.) Soon, no doubt, the Russian government will be printing posters of fat British capitalists in bowler hats squashing Russian workers with their shiny boots.
A short article in The Moscow Times reinforces the theme of an ever more xenophobic, closed Russia: Just about everyone in power seems to have been seized by conspiracy mania. High-ranking officials openly accuse Russia's enemies of preparing a revolution akin to the one that occurred in Ukraine, which explains why they devote so much hysterical attention to happenings in Kiev. The political leadership is convinced that the opposition is being financed by the West in the hope of destabilizing the political system, and that high-ranking diplomats, led by the ambassador of one of the Group of Eight countries, are coordinating the distribution of funds to the opposition. According to this theory, demonstrators deliberately bring women, children and the elderly to their protests in hopes of provoking the police into attacking those less able to defend themselves, thereby proving to the world the "bloodthirsty" nature of this regime.
Worrying.
Robbie Millen
 Maybe it's just me but of late I've developed a sophisticated, relaxed view of adultery, started drizzling my fish and chips with olive oil, and started driving on the other side of the road. Ohmigod I'm turning into a European. I know this because John O'Sullivan in a robust article on Iran in The National Review says this:
the Brits are developing a quasi-pacifist European sensibility on military affairs. They are “entering Europe” psychologically as well as economically.
In the same place Victor Davis Hanson says this: We admire speaking softly and carrying a big stick, while deploring speaking loudly and carrying a small stick, but the British apparently are both speaking softly and carrying a small stick. This incident is sort of a scraping off the veneer of a generally known, but little discussed truth: that the U.K. has become often not the exception to, but the nexus of, a new sort of European thinking antithetical to the U.S.
It's a crass trait of the American Right (and, in O'Sullivan's case, those Brits in America who've gone native) to lump all of Europe - from France to Poland - together as one single cheese-eating, surrender monkey entity. You'd have thought that Iraq might have taught US conservatives that "Abroad" is a little bit more complicated than that.
Robbie Millen
 Tom Stoppard on today's op-ed pages has got it all wrong about Alexander Lukashenko, the man he calls the last dictator in Europe. I know that Tom Stoppard is wrong because I've read President Lukashenko's informative and objective website.
I learnt from it, for instance, that: A.G. Lukashenko is notable for his in-depth understanding of events, hard work, sense of duty, realism, fairness and fidelity to principle.
and that A.G. Lukashenko enjoys enormous prestige both in our country and abroad. Many are captivated by his honesty and openness, will and perseverance, energy, and constant willingness to learn from whomever his destiny brings him in touch.
I was impressed by this too: A.G. Lukashenko follows the sober way of life; he denounces idlers, traitors, drunkards, those who do not keep their word. He tries to find time for going in for sport (tennis, skating, skiing, hockey, football), for reading sociological and classical literature. A.G. Lukashenko's ill-wishers try to describe him as a conservative and an enemy to innovations, whilst he does not accept any arm-chair decisions incompatible with real life. He is the only politician in Europe who perceives the truth as, above all else, a category of conscience, and he always demands from politicians that they should comply with moral categories in their decision taking.
I'm sure under his wise helsmanship tractor productivity has jumped, crime has been abolished and everyone, from the fields to the factories, is happy and harmonious.
Does any world leader have a more gushing official hagiography (sorry, objective profiling free from the biases and lies of Western yellow press)? Well's let's go to the website of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea where you can enjoy A Brief History of the life of the Dear Leader, Kim Jong Il. Brief?!? It's 160 pages. If you don't want me to spoil the ending, look away now. The cause of the Korean revolution advancing vigorously along the road of Juche under the leadership of Comrade Kim Jong Il, General Secretary of the Workers' party of Korea, will achieve ultimate victory without fail in any storms and adversity and Korea will shine brilliantly as the motherland of Juche, where its 70 million fellowmen enjoy genuine freedom and prosperity on the reunified land
I do like happy endings.
So come on which other megalomaniac leader's website makes Lukashenko look like a shrinking violet?
Robbie Millen
Those working outside the medical profession may be unaware of this research on why Danes are smug.
 I am a great admirer of Victor Davis Hanson, the classicist and polemicist. This article about Western weakness in the face of Islamist terrorist is a scorcher and worth reading. But it also reveals the depressing tendency of American conservatives to paint an absurd and distorted "cheese-eating surrender monkey" picture of Europe --- a decadent Europe in which they see no difference between Britain and France, or Germany and Poland, or Estonia and Italy. The American Right obsesses about the anti-Americanism of Europeans and then summons up an equally absurd anti-Europeanism.
Yes, the present generation of Europeans really is heretical, made up of traitors of a sort. They themselves, not just their consensual governments, or the now-demonized American Patriot Act and Guantanamo detention center, or some invader across the Mediterranean, have endangered their centuries-won freedoms of expression -- and out of worries over oil, or appearing as illiberal apostates of the new secular religion of multiculturalism, or another London or Madrid bombing.
Calm down, VDH, calm down.
Robbie Millen
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