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Is Gordon stuck in 1992?

PoliticsHome put their indefatigable team of 100 experts to work again today, asking them to assess the theory put forward by Daniel in this morning’s paper.

‘'The central ideas that make up Gordon Brown's policy, political strategy and day-to-day tactics were all developed between 1992 and 1994. He hasn't had an important idea since. Nor has he discarded an important idea since then, remaining doggedly faithful to every last one."

Well, the results are in…

Two leaders react to Martin's parting shot

The video of Michael Martin’s parting shot on expenses can be watched here.

I link to it purely for the hilarious cut from Brown’s reaction to Cameron’s. Possibly the most articulate expression ever of the gulf between their characters.

Clare Short: Gordon is a "tragedy"

Clare Short, in the Birmingham Mail: 

“In a sense Gordon is the bigger tragedy. He always wanted to be Prime Minister and thought it should have been him, rather than Tony. Certainly, when they were both together in opposition, Gordon was the senior one.

“I think he got so het-up in taking over that he lost his way, he lost his sense of who he was. He hinted that there would be a bit of a fresh beginning when he took over from Tony and we needed that – people have forgotten how unpopular Tony became – and he just blew it.

“I think he spent so long calculating how to take over that he lost remembering why he did it. ‘He’s not a bad person, he’s a control freak and he hasn’t got Tony’s charm, as everybody sees. I think he’s lost his way.”

Are blogs the best tools for combating lies?

Fraser Nelson has been tenacious (and admirable) in tracking down Gordon Brown and exposing his lie (not a word I am prone to use, not an accusation I make often) about spending.

On Coffee House he explains that while a print journalist can come back to the same topic rarely, a blogger can come back to it again and again. The internet therefore provides a tool for combating lies and establishing the truth.

I certainly hope that he is correct. But can I offer a more pessimistic take?

In my Saturday Review column, inspired by a Hattie post, I write about two new papers from Brendan Nyhan, of Duke University, North Carolina, and Jason Reifler, of Georgia State University.

Their research suggests that political misperceptions are hard to correct when they chime with beliefs that people already hold. Indeed, denying a lie can sometimes increase the strength with which people believe it.

This depressing finding - which results from people's attempt to reduce cognitive dissonance - suggests that the Tories will have difficulty repulsing Brown simply by pointing out that he is lying.

They have to reduce the number of people ready to believe that lie, by getting people to trust the Tories.

Might Brown step down in the Autumn?

Paul Waugh, this morning, is alert in his dissection of Steve Richards' commentary in The Independent.

"He [Brown] will get the space to continue until autumn," Richards writes, "If he makes no headway in the polls between now and then, he will not lead Labour into the next election election and, I suspect, would not try to do so."

It's the last six words, after the comma, that rightly excite Waugh:

"It's the first glimmer of a hint that Brown will voluntarily step aside if things remain bad.

With people looking for fresh triggers for the rebels - with the timing of the Norwich and Glasgow by-elections yet to be decided - the very idea that Gordon would walk because of continuing poor opinion polls (as opposed to concrete votes) appears strange. But Richards' words could be the most significant of all the blather around today."

Bremner, Brown and Mika

Hat tip to Dizzy, who rescued this clip from YouTube - Rory Bremner as Gordon Brown imitating pop singer Mika....

Or: your worst nightmare.

Will Brown go? A rolling guide to news and insider gossip

10.55am: The BBC has gone quiet on the Brown story. Why? Because, as one political correspondent explained to me, the reporters have been sent a letter telling them not to say anything.

Nothing sinister about it, though. It's just that correspondents aren't allowed to report politics on election day. They've been told not to report anything after 9am and before 10pm. Why you are allowed to report before 9am is without explanation.

11.02am: Charles Clarke - at the head of a phalanx of so-called Blairites - is named by everyone as the moving spirit against Brown among MPs. But there is another strand to the opposition - backbenchers furious at the treatment of the expenses issue.

Unbelievably these MPs think Brown has been too tough. They are angry, for instance, on Elliot Morley's behalf. Expenses - from the You Tube fiasco onwards - explains Barry Sheerman's interventions.

11.08am: Here's the plan. Or so I am told. Shaun Woodward to Home Secretary and John Denham to Communities. Woodward will obviously say yes. Colleagues want Denham to say no. But he is more in the "I will jump if you jump first" category.

11.10am: The other suggestion is that Alastair Darling is strongly resisting the move from Chancellor and has said so to Brown. If he doesn't move Ed Balls into that job now, he will suffer a loss of face. But, honestly, has he got face to lose any more?

Not moving Ed Balls certainly takes one potential "Brown killer" topic off the table.

11.34am: Obviously the election results may be critical in determining Brown's fate. So we will be reporting rumours about how those are going, too.

A good starting point is provided by John Curtice in the Independent. He points out that the Conservatives could fail to reach the levels of support gained in the European election last time. Could such a performance take the edge off Labour's defeat?

11.39am: From the Westminster lobby, however, they are telling me that the whole Brown story may not wait for anything as useful as results. Stories - it is rumoured - are being stored up with a 10.01pm embargo. And others are planning to act then, too. We won't get any proper results until Friday.

11.54am: Ed Miliband is regarded by many would be plotters as the most credible coup leader. On the other hand, Brown will be looking for him to appear on the media putting on a show of loyalty.

So it is fortunate for him that he has a toothache, a new baby, and can tell loyalists and rebels alike that he is not able to help.

12:42: Lots of blogs are enjoying the fact that Sir Alan Sugar has just been spotted leaving Downing Street. Much hilarity over the prospect of Chancellor Sugar, "Brown - you're fired' etc etc...

12:57: Over in Westminster, my colleague Sam Coates notes that, while there is still no sign of the PM, the countdown begins till the plotters' email is sent.

13.09: Yesterday, the swirling rumour concerned the number of MPs signing the round robin. Today, this has been joined by a sister swirling rumour.

Caroline Flint, the Minister for Europe, is rumoured to be on the verge of resigning. Her comments in last week’s interview with The Times have given weight to this.

And the fact that her people are doing their best to deny it doesn’t seem to be killing the rumour, as you might think it would.

13:29: According to Guido, Downing Street has been forced to issue a denial that the PM has resigned, to quell celebrations in the City caused by a false rumour.

13:40: James Forsyth in The Coffee House, points out that: “there will be very little overnight counting and declaration, so anyone who says their bit tonight can be fairly certain that they will leads the news in the morning”.

All eyes, then, on who gets off the blocks first (after the tolling of 10pm frees the broadcast media to report) with a call for Brown to go….

14:10: Meanwhile, on planet UKIP.... The leadership is close to panic - whether justifiable or nor is impossible to tell, but I guess 'not' is probably a safer bet - about the ballot papers outside London.

They claim UKIP's box is almost impossible to find, as its positioned over the fold with various independents.

Their talk is of 10s of thousands of UKIP supporters ringing their headquarters, asking for help. Make of it what you will. Obviously, how UKIP do will have a huge effort on Labour's results, and how the Brown story unfolds. I doubt this will be a decider though.

15:30: Contrary to all previous reports, rumours are now circulating that Alistair Darling would be willing to take another job in the reshuffle, and that the Chancellorship isn’t the be-all-and-end-all for him that everyone had assumed.

Presumably though, this get-out-of-jail card for Brown would hang on offering Darling exactly the right kind of job…

16:42 According to Paul Waugh’s twitterings: “word in Westminster is that at 10pm tonight, when the polls close, a Cabinet minister will quit. Lets see if they do.”

Maybe it'll be a minister. Flint?

16:52 Cabinet ministers loyal to Brown trying to talk up the number the Tories need to reach to feel satisfied with the Euro election.

A "plague on all your houses" election result is one route out for Brown. The number being briefed is that Cameron has to hurdle over 33 per cent, a number well in excess of the polls or the Tory score last time. It's not a bad effort, I'll give them that.

17:24: Don't mention the war... A trawl of Labour blog-sites looking for info produces this:

Labour List: 12 reasons to vote Labour in Yorkshire and the Humber
Next Left: Towards a citizen’s convention?
Progress: June 4: vote Labour, vote to keep the BNP out
Blackburn Labour: Why are you campaigning for Labour?
New Direction: Some good news for a change

In other words - denial. Apart from that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?

17:41: Courtesy of Paul Waugh’s blog, Stockton South Labour MP Dari Taylor's comment on the effect of Blears’ resignation:

“I don’t think it will leave him [Brown]in a position that he will inevitably face a challenge, but I am not totally ruling it out of the ballgame all together.”

19:49: The gossip is that Sir Alan Sugar's visit to Number 10 was not a courtesy call. It is suggested that he has been offered a role in the Cabinet and has accepted. This seems far fetched, but the source is good enough to make it worth recording at least.......

23:10: James Forsyth, on Coffee House, has been hearing rumours, as yet unconfirmed, that David Miliband is planning to go tomorrow.

23:15: Hat tip to Paul Waugh who has this, on his blog, from a Downing Street spokesman:

"The Prime Minister is disappointed by the resignation of James Purnell, of which he was informed shortly before 10 pm. His focus over the coming days will be on restructuring the Government on the big challenges facing the country for the future: how we guide the economy through the downturn and strengthen it for the future; how we push ahead with reform of and investment in our public services; and how we renew trust in our democracy and Parliament. He will continue to give his undivided attention to addressing these great challenges facing our country and putting the interests of the British people first and foremost."

23:25: According to Alex Smith, on Labour List, rumours are now circulating within the Labour party that it’s Culture Secretary Andy Burnham who we’re likely to see resigning in the next few days. So, Purnell. Now Smith? Miliband? Anyone else want to throw their hat in tonight?

FRIDAY 07:53: Good morning. Let's kick off with David Cameron's reaction to Purnell's resignation...

08:21: Anything can happen at the circus, but it’s now almost certain that the PM will have to back-peddle on his plans to move Ed Balls into number 11, and Alistair Darling will work doggedly on as Chancellor in the hurriedly rescheduled reshuffle that’s now underway.

Did John Reid tell Brown to stand down?

The Times has already reported on stories that Gordon Brown secretly offered John Reid his old job of Home Secretary and that Reid refused.

Iain Dale though, says that he went futher. Here’s the conversation, as reported to Dale:

Brown: Will you be my Home Secretary?
Reid: No
Brown: You have to support me
Reid: No I don’t. I have to support my country and my party, and that means you have to stand down.

Ouch.

Brown needed a "put up or shut up" challenge

It's a political act that hasn't been given sufficient credit. But now I think it should.

What is happening in the Labour Party now shows that it was a stroke of political brilliance.

I am talking about John Major's "Put up or shut up" leadership challenge. By picking a moment and then forcing his opponents either to fall in behind him or challenge him Major did two things that Gordon Brown did not do.

First, he secured the leadership. His open challenge left only the controversial John Redwood to face him. This limited the size of the revolt to (just) manageable amounts. 

By calling the contest himself he set victory as the hurdle over which his opponents had to leap over. Brown's opponents, by contrast, only have to have enough support to make a fuss.

Second, Major closed down the leadership question. He settled it. What is happening to Labour now, as Andrew Cooper of Populus explained to me, is what would have happened to the Tories if Major had not acted as he did.

Labour are now in a worse position than the Conservatives in the 1992 Parliament, and Major's brilliant stroke is one of the reasons why.

Gordon's "doddering premiership" criticised on Labour List

Whatever may have been the case with Derek Draper at the helm, Labour List is certainly no longer under tight party control.

Here is the latest post on the site, written by contributor Lewis Goodall:

At every turn in recent weeks, and yes, throughout his doddering premiership, Gordon has shown a shocking and at times painful lack of political instinct, which would have allowed a niftier politician (Blair, anyone?) to not only strengthen his own position but also bring about the transformative energy that Brown alluded to in that conference speech.

Time and again, we the rank and file, have had to squirm as the Prime Minister’s political judgement has been exposed as sorely wanting; the election that never was, 10p tax, youtubegate and now his reaction to the expenses scandal.

No one of course suggests that the poisoned system is Gordon’s fault directly (Parliament itself must take the rap for this) but what we can blame our leader for his appallingly lacklustre political response.

Just where exactly has he been? As was so often the case in the Blair years when the going got tough, Gordon retreats to his bunker licking his wounds.

Underneath, every commentator agrees. Only some of them are Tories.