After this Stern admonition, our world will never be the same again . . .
ONE MIGHT almost suspect Gordon Brown of having appointed Sir Nicholas Stern to inquire into the economics of global warming on the basis of his name alone. The Stern Review sounds so appropriately admonitory, given the energy habits of the Western world. When Mr Brown becomes prime minister we may perhaps expect the Strict Report on examination standards, or the Cross Inquiry into modern parenting. I have some thoughts, too, on who might look at sexual health, but I’ll keep them to myself.
Stern is wonderfully clear. Assuming the scientific neo-consensus on global warming and its causes to be broadly right, Stern examines the economics of doing a lot to cut emissions versus doing little, and concludes that doing a lot will most likely save us a great deal of money as well as trouble and death. If temperatures rise by five degrees we will lose up to a tenth of world output, if they rise by two to three degrees the loss will be nearer 3 per cent. But for a one-off investment of 1 per cent of global GDP we can stabilise emissions over the next 20 years, and see them fall after that. Tony Blair has described the review as the most important document produced for government since 1997, and the other political party leaders generally agree.
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