Is peak oil theory only for fascists?

Which British political party has the following observations about peak oil on its website?

"One person's apocalyptic view could be interpreted as an opportunity by another. Britons are resourceful, innovative and can be pretty bloody minded in a crisis. We can knuckle down, roll up our sleeves and get on with life even without all the labour saving devices, the shopping malls and the twice-yearly trips to the Med or Florida."

The Greens? The Lib Dems? Think again. The British National Party has a pretty good grasp of peak oil. "We are the only political party making this an issue at the moment," the party boasts.

This does seem rather amazing, considering that the oil price now is higher than ever before - even taking account of inflation. Having recently shot through the psychologically powerful price of $100 a barrel it's now nearly a tenth as much again. Everybody is wondering how to explain the international financial and economic turbulence, but few seem to have considered the possibility that markets have finally recognised that oil is finite, and that global supplies may have peaked.

Here's another quote. "When the BNP does win political power, peak oil will not be something we can postpone. In fact it may well be an important catalyst that helps us to win political power because we are the ones talking about it now. Voters might not like us pointing out that the wolf is approaching the chicken coop but they will identify us as the ones who kept speaking about it, bringing it to their awareness and understanding."

You may prefer that the BNP did not "own" this important issue. If so, what do you intend to do about it?

You could lobby mainstream political representatives to take it more seriously. But you could also - perhaps more fruitfully - find like-minded people in your neighbourhood and take matters into your own hands by starting the move towards creating a resilient, self-sufficient community.

If you are wondering how to do that, I very strongly recommend that you get hold of The Transition Handbook, which was published last week.

It's an astonishing work, which genuinely manages to present a positive, inspiring picture of a future without (cheap and plentiful) fossil fuels.

The book was written by an Englishman, Rob Hopkins, after several years of work, starting with a spell as a teacher in Kinsale, Ireland.

“I had never heard about peak oil,” Hopkins says. “But then I showed students a film, The End of Suburbia, which I’d never seen, and at the same time Dr Colin Campbell from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil came to talk. I have to say it was as traumatic and shocking for me as it was for the students. One of the other members of staff said to me, ‘What has happened to your students, they’ve been walking around looking grey all week!’

The film, and Campbell, made clear that no aspect of life will be the same after cheap oil runs out.

“When we got over the shock we set about looking at Kinsale. We examined how the town might look in 20 years if it adapted to peak oil instead of pretending it wasn’t happening.” The project lasted for seven or eight months. “We came up with a plan, a vision of how the town would be, and then backcast it to see how to get there, year by year.”

Returning to England, Hopkins launched helped to create a similar “energy descent” plan in Totnes, Devon, and the Transition Town movement was born.

It’s grown incredibly fast. Individuals and groups from hundreds of places across the UK - and around the world - have registered to become Transition Towns, with more coming on board all the time.

The first, Totnes, Lewes, Glastonbury and Stroud, were full of middle-class hippy types (or as Hopkins puts it, “places that traditionally have been laboratories for alternative ideas”). But in Bristol it’s the poorer districts that have been most dynamic. In Wales, the impetus has come from the agricultural community.

“If we don’t do anything,” says Hopkins, “there are all kinds of grim scenarios. But I like to think of those as like Dickens’ Ghost of Christmas Future – just one possible scenario.”

The environmental movement, he believes, has been guilty of putting people in a place of despondency and guilt. Transition Towns are positively trying to move towards something.

“Realistically, only a very small percentage will think that that life beyond abundant oil could be preferable to where we are now.” Does he believe that? “I don’t think it will be a dark age but the most extraordinary renaissance.”

As Hopkins sees it, we need to engineer a certain degree of wartime mobilisation. “But how do we bring that about, when it’s not going to be initiated at government level? A lot of the drive will have to come from communities.”

The idea that solutions to civic problems should be provided by communities is popular with all the main parties at the moment.

“This is an issue that goes completely beyond party politics," says Hopkins. "At Transition Town Totnes we talk to the Women's Institute and the Conservative Association as much as we talk to the usual suspects. Our Conservative MP, Anthony Steen, has been incredibly supportive and enthusiastic.”

The concept that is central to transition towns is building resilience. “We have been doing work with people who remember the 1930s and 1940s, people who say it would have been insane to eat apples from New Zealand. Back then, all the food came from near the town. We don’t have that resilience any more. In the lorry strike of 2001 we had only three days of food in Totnes.

“This is about doing things that come in under the radar. We’re building a parallel public infrastructure. We have the Totnes pound, which we launched recently. We have circulated 4,500 in one month. You don’t have to subscribe to peak oil and climate change to think that is quite sweet and fun.” (Not long ago, Hopkins gave a Totnes pound to Prince Charles, who cheerfully approved.) “But what it does is put in place something that is absolutely essential, because it stops wealth leaking out of the community.”

More than 70 shops have agreed to trade with this parallel currency.

“When we launched the Totnes pound 160 people turned up, and they all got one for nothing. So at the beginning of the evening they were all waving their money in the air and laughing and exhilarated. I thought, here are people who are concerned about peak oil and climate change and they’re having a great time. The possibility embodied in those notes is exhilarating. We have only really started to scratch the surface of presenting these issues in a way that makes people feel optimistic.

They also planted nut trees throughout town. “Nobody can object to that, but it raises awareness about food security and local food. And we are not standing in town with placards talking about ‘them and us’.”

It sounds impressive. Perhaps I should move to Totnes?

Not a good idea, says Hopkins. Until recently, people like him believed the most responsible thing to do was to move out, build a house and grow your own food. “But when I found out about peak oil I came to question that. We had built our own house, and were growing our own food, but I thought, this was only going to be sustainable if I am prepared to sit at the gate with a shotgun. What do I do with my carrots if the village up the road is cold and hungry?”

A little lugubriously, I point out that if cities don’t get their act together on climate change, even people with remote smallholdings will be wiped out by great fireballs of methane shooting across the sky.

“We have to move towards collective solutions,” Hopkins agrees cautiously. “Peak oil is a call to those of us who have been out in the highlands to come back and help because the skills are very much in demand now.”

He points out that individuals and groups in major cities such as Nottingham, Leeds and Liverpool have shown considerable interest in joining the transition network. Bristol has already launched.

“Bristol has 800,000 people. Will it work on that scale? We have no idea, we’ve never done it before. It may be that in five years we will say it only works in market towns. But everybody who tries to run with it is contributing to the research. This is the biggest and most important research project in the UK at the moment.”

Comments

[PM]

Who's paying for the affluent middle class to indulge in these ridiculous fantasies?

Someone should sell these gullible fools indulgences.

No, wait - they've already thought of that. They're called Carbon Credits!

[Graham in Iraq]

Yeah... Marx is relevant.....

Oh, wait. No he isn't....

[Danny Bloom]

JPF,
this is amazing idea, transition towns. love it. it is happening now and important. please tell us more in future articles.

my polar cities concept is like a transition town but more futuristic and sci fi for now, so not as important as this idea now. I love it. thanks for telling us about it.

but do write or blog about polar cities one day soon, just to plant the idea in readers' minds....pro or con....

danny bloom
http://pcillu101.blogspot.com

[James]

Although the BNP have an interest, true, their main view is that the chaos and social dislocation associated with the peak will benefit them.

However, all these Transition Town projects are led by Greens, and we Greens certainly campaign on the issue. Prepare for peak oil, tackle climate change: it looks the same. There are rumours that a few Lib Dems understand the issue too!

[Colin Soames]

Government are addressing 'peak oil' by proxy - blathering on about global warming. The sheeple are OK if tell 'em plastic bags are killing turtles, but would panic when offered the choice of heat or eat.

[Kevin]

Well....never thought I'd find myself in agreement with the BNP, as a well educated, well paid professional but I visited their website in response to this article and found plenty of thoughtful (and thought provoking!) articles on this and other topics. I would in fact say that their thoughts appeal to me more than the big three parties. It seems that the Labour party, who to my shame I voted in in 1997 are greedy, corrupt and downright hypocritical ditto the Lib Dems & Conservatives who all inhabit a world of quarter truths and downright lies when it comes to the day to day matters of education, crime, taxation & immigration. I will visit the BNP website again for it's refreshing insights.

[Christopher Mims]

In the U.S., it's virtually the equivalent of the B.N.P. who are worried about this. There's something about xenophobic protectionism that is uniquely compatible with the doomsday scenarios that peak oil seems to occasion. In the U.S., it's people with survivalist fantasies and the strong notion that they should be stockpiling weapons to deal with the inevitability of it.

[Ian Johnson]

What a breath of fresh air, a newspaper finally recognising the fact that the BNP are not composed of mindless knuckle dragging thugs as usually reported in other newspapers.

How has The Times managed to stay impartial when all others are at every opportunity trying their best to discredit the BNP.

Full marks to you Mr. Times editor, sadly you will probably soon be replaced by someone more politically correct as ordained by our wonderous government, in the meantime i am changing my newspaper order from the Daily Mail to The Times as i am sick or reading politically correct claptrap.

Ian Johnson

[david webb]

L.J. Barnes poses the question, "are the politicians insane, stupid or just bought and paid for to the point that they dare not defy the power of the globalists and international corporations that control the economic systems of the planet ?"

My answer is that they are all off those things but most of all they are Cultural Marxists. Karl Marx decreed that there should be no patriotism or even borders between countries, instead we should all follow the ideal of common purpose in seeking equality.
Ever since the second world war, socialism was seen as inevitable by the establishment and therefore they merely tried to slow it's progress. Now we face the destruction of capitalism and the final chapters of what Marx and the Frankfurt school set in motion will be played out.

[L.J.Barnes]

It is a national scandal akin to treason the Lisbon Treaty - just as the Falklands Islands oil boom is about to release potentially more oil to the UK than the North Sea did, we are surrendering our control of that oil to the EU.

The present phase of British political history will one day be viewed as the time that a cabal of traitorous politicians ensured that the horror of Peak Oil fell upon our nation as harshly as it will fall upon on all other nations that have surrendered their control over their essential resources to the globalisation process and nexus.

As an Island with plenty of wind, wave, solar and oil left for us we could have passed through the Peak Oil phase with a minimal amount of pain and at the same time acted as a stabilising and supporting nation for those who nations who will be badly hit by it.

We could have led the worlds recovery, now we will fall with the rest.

Instead we have opted to open the nations borders, allow in hundreds of millions of eco-migrants into the EU most of whom will try and get to the UK and try to blend into the immigrant colonies already here and this whole migration process will merely ensure that what reserves of energy and oil we have are depleted all the faster as these new immigrants ratchet up demand for our ever depleting resources.

The question is this - are the politicians insane, stupid or just bought and paid for to the point that they dare not defy the power of the globalists and international corporations that control the economic systems of the planet ?

[Vincent Bate]

Of course the BNP is far ahead on this issue. They usually are on most issues and get hated by the lazy incompitent establishment for it! And if you think the BNP is facist, then I suggest you read what real facism is. You'll discover it is a long way from the stance the BNP takes. It isn't facist for indigenous Britons to organise in their own interests, or if it is then every other ethnic group with ethnospecific interest groups is facist too.

[david webb]

L.J. Barnes states that "Every nation must, and will, prioritise its peoples own energy needs first"

Great shame then that we are about to give the EU control of our oil gas and coal reserves via the Lisbon Treaty.
First priority when dealing with peak oil, regain control of ones own nation state.

[L.J. Barnes]

The issue of Peak Oil is the pachyderm in the room that the establishment parties cannot publicise, as they have no solutions to the crisis other than more resource wars for oil such as the Iraq War and an endless descent into Eco-Conflicts.

The idea that more globalism will solve the problem is absurd, as globalism has created the problem of increased oil energy demand due to the spread of consumerism. Every nation must, and will, prioritise its peoples own energy needs first - otherwise social complexity collapses, economies collapse, civil unrest grows and anarchy spreads. When the lights go out then the rioting will start.

The only solution to the crisis is Eco-Nationalism and Envrionmental Localism which requires nation states to regard energy and environmental security as important as national security and that governments devolve power down to local communities to run, produce and supply their own local energy networks and supply their own foods as far as possible.

This is what the BNP have been advocating for years, and it is the exact opposite to the fascist political model.

It is the New Labour Project of the Third Way which is Big Government run for the benefit of international big business which is in fact the only Fascist political model in British society and which has resulted in the Iraq War and oil imperialism - as would be expected from a fascist political model.

Peak Oil is a return to reason - the last century has been a century of delusions and wars based on the profligate abuse of the cheap oil that was discovered.

Now Man must live in harmony with Nature once again - or end up as the victim of his own hubris.

[Tyndallite]

The BNP are not neccessarily the only party who talk about Peak Oil these days, but they were the FIRST, and they remain the only party that puts PO in the forfront of their policies. PO is never mentioned in lib-lab-con's manifestos, and the Greens merely grumble about it from time to time, but generally hide the issue away (like an invalid son when the vicar calls).

All the old parties and ideologies are not responding to the PO issue. They're like the frightened rabbit in the glare of the headlights. The BNP on the other hand, HAS absorbed the issue, changed its entire weltanshaung to accomodate it, and is now the fox, waiting on the sideline for the rabbit to be hit by the Peak Oil juggernaut.

[david webb]

"The totnes pound stops wealth leaking out of the community.”

If you are advocating local economics, we should leave the EU and the highest level of legislature should be an English parliament or regional government.
At the moment our parliament cannot even represent the UK at world trade talks which are essential for the issue of fair trade, instead they have to lobby the EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson to insert some of our wishes alongside the rest of the EU members.
None of the article's aspirations are alien to me, I was born at the end of the 1940's and when I was a young lad our milk was delivered by horse and cart from the farm which was less than a mile away and food rationing was still in place from the war. We didn't have a car, phone, central heating, fridge, TV or designer clothes. In fact most of my clothes in my early years were hand me downs or from jumble sales. When there was a storm we would go to the beach and collect drift wood for the fire.
One thing we did have in abundance though was happiness and loving parents who gave up all of their time for the family.
I would go back to those times readily, perhaps peak oil will grant that wish.

[EMs]

I like the idea about having your own currency for your own town in this article...

[P Lee]

The real elephant in the corner of peak oil is the currently still rising human population. I have seen estimates that the maximum sustainable number of humans when the oil runs out is about 2/3 billion as opposed to the current 7 billion.

There is going to be a great deal of fighting over water and food. The BNP is correct and is also correct about the insanity of the UK allowing more and more people into this over-populated island that is currently not able to produce enough food to feed itself.

[tonyw]

Why is there so little explanation of this in the mainstream media when if not addressed could cause the complete collapse of society?

Here’s a quote from Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA):

“Unfortunately, there’s a lot of talk, but very little action. I really hope that consuming nations will understand the gravity of the situation and put in place radical and extremely tough policies to curb oil demand growth.”

Note “radical and extremely tough”, until recently these guys at IEA were saying that there would be no peak until,decades in the future.

Let’s see, global climate catastrophe, peak oil, security of supplies - isn’t it just so obvious that we need to curb our demand and move away from fossil fuel? Maybe it’s just like financial bubbles that they can’t be seen until they have crashed then everyone knows how stupid they were, tulips, South Sea, Mississippi, Florida land, Japan land, dotcom, sub-prime. The problem with this crash is that the consequences will not be limited to just a few banks but every aspect of society.

IMO we need to cut consumption quickly and this will only be achieved by a clear message from our political “leaders”. Here are a few steps that will help and can easily be achieved:
1. ban production of cars with emissions over 250g/km within six months. Even the ex-chairman of shell agrees with this banning of gas-guzzlers. In 1942 the US stopped production of all cars for private use and re-tooled to make tanks etc. If this can be done then it should be easy to switch focus from performance to economy.
2. introduce a European speed limit of 90km/h 55mph.
3. stop expansion of airports and roads with immediate effect

These are only the first of many steps that must be taken.

[tonyw]

Why is there so little explanation of this in the mainstream media when if not addressed could cause the complete collapse of society?

Here’s a quote from Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA):

“Unfortunately, there’s a lot of talk, but very little action. I really hope that consuming nations will understand the gravity of the situation and put in place radical and extremely tough policies to curb oil demand growth.”

Note “radical and extremely tough”, until recently these guys at IEA were saying that there would be no peak until,decades in the future.

Let’s see, global climate catastrophe, peak oil, security of supplies - isn’t it just so obvious that we need to curb our demand and move away from fossil fuel? Maybe it’s just like financial bubbles that they can’t be seen until they have crashed then everyone knows how stupid they were, tulips, South Sea, Mississippi, Florida land, Japan land, dotcom, sub-prime. The problem with this crash is that the consequences will not be limited to just a few banks but every aspect of society.

IMO we need to cut consumption quickly and this will only be achieved by a clear message from our political “leaders”. Here are a few steps that will help and can easily be achieved:
1. ban production of cars with emissions over 250g/km within six months. Even the ex-chairman of shell agrees with this banning of gas-guzzlers. In 1942 the US stopped production of all cars for private use and re-tooled to make tanks etc. If this can be done then it should be easy to switch focus from performance to economy.
2. introduce a European speed limit of 90km/h 55mph.
3. stop expansion of airports and roads with immediate effect

These are only the first of many steps that must be taken.

[Jack Ashton]

"The British National Party has a pretty good grasp of peak oil."

In fact, the BNP has a pretty good grasp of most issues if only people would look past the 'fascist' slur of its political opponents who think they have a right to instruct people which party they should not support.

In terms of sustainability it is only the BNP who addresses the fact that continued mass immigration will lead to massive destruction of green belts around the country to provide additional housing. It is the BNP who recognises the need for greater self-sufficiency given that we are now moving into an era of global scarcity in commodities.

[michelle clarke]

What I want is tax relief for my donkey, which I want to use to carry my shopping back from the town. If donkeys etc had tax relief it would help everyone go green. Also the slow lanes of motorways should be donkey lanes.

[Richard C]

"The current figures we have for peak oil are wrong according to a new cambridge study"

The study you cite is by Cambridge energy research associates, for a record of their predictive success over the years, see here:

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/cera.htm

They have been predicting falling oil prices for the last five years, and been wrong every year. If they ever predict that peak oil is a reality, I will then assume peak oil is a myth and sell oil with everything I own.

[pete best]

Oh my, the amount I have read and watched concerning peak oil makes me worried to but for other reasons other than those listed here. Go local but you will not be immune fror global fallout either. It could mean war, it will mean more warming of the planet due to unconventional oils coming online which not only cost more to extract but are more environmentally costly also as the return per barrel in energy terms is less than the easy stuff and masses of water and natural gas are require to make it into oil.

We require a global response to peak oil and climate change and it is achieveable with a combination of radical thinking about energy generation and use with efficiency gains being a bit part of the plan.

We need to lessen carbon emissions significantly otherwise our tv screens will be full of the four horses and in order to do that it requires a massive war time respoonse for around 20 years and it will cost too.

[David]

running out of oil, should not be a problem it,s just another step on the ladder, we managed without in in the past, surely we are capable of finding an alternative source of energy and carrying on as before.prior to 1939 there were few private cars on the road, most of us relied on public transport and were able to travel anywhere in Britain even the smallest of villages were served by a bus company. Putting trams back into all our cities and towns should not be difficult and now that we can add as many coaches as required makes them an ideal means of transport. Then where ever possible underground train systems can be built. The inside lane of motorways could be tracked and tram trains used to link all our major cities and towns. Small hamlets could be served by bus services run on bio-fuels and linked into the main system. Trams could be adapted to deliver goods. There are many alternatives to oil, just needs forward planning and the time to start is yesterday.

[Pazz]

A thoughtful article about our energy status and yet i disagree that its only the BNP who is addressing it.
Nearly every government has it on their agenda.
The same is true of nearly all energy companies throughout the world and policy reviews are always at the politico's table whether we hear it or not.

The current figures we have for peak oil are wrong according to a new cambridge study and manages to stick the peak much further on in the future.
http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx?CID=8444

BP has their own Energy Stats on our energy futures as well...
http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6848&contentId=7033471

Natural Gas is currently being burnt off as waste due to the excess of it and the lack of take up and utilisation within industry and our homes. Nearly no one speaks of this....

While i see the initiatives as being a great start to address a change in our reliance on hydrocarbon fuels, i also believe that these changes will also have to come from the industrial sector more so than from the ordinary joe.
If one examines innovation over the last couple of centuries, you will doubtlessly see the hand of big business at work. We need to convince them of the need for change.

We must ensure that the change we implement will cater for nearly all scenarios or we could get caught out as did the central asian states of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, who found themselves lacking any power because of hydro-dam failures when the water froze.
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2008/3/C2E4D1CB-DBD2-403C-A1A6-BFD5577A2B88.html

While nuclear power may be scary to most people, in the event of an oil crisis, it would be far more scarier not to have it. What we do with the waste is being thought through and i hope their descisions are solid and long term.

Plants for oil is a ridiculous idea as we wont be able to feed ourselves adequately....maybe a good thing because eating less equates to better health but there is always the bad year and if we are producing food at the edge of existence, then we could have a disaster.

The prices of oil today do not reflect the 'amount' of oil remaining....it reflects the futures market speculation of supply because oil is bought months in advance and cannot reflect any current stabilities.
We have several reasons for the current high pricings.....Storms in the Mexican Gulf, Russian nationalisation of privately invested oil fields, war in Iraq, ethnic disturbances in Nigeria and so on.

So, my point is....lets be more succinct in conveying doom and be far more detailed in thinking about how we can engender Big Business to start the required research.
Climate change, whether because of man or not will have a far bigger effect than an oil crisis, simply because once it's in full swing, there's nought we can do but suffer it through.