Alex T
The hills are alive with the sound of Michael Schumacher (Schuey) making a possible return to F1 racing with Mercedes. A large number of players are helping to drive the hype. And of course Mercedes are basking in the pr bonanza. The free publicity they are garnering is good for business, especially the business of negating the adverse effect of losing Button to McLaren.
Well, here are seven substantive reasons why I believe Schuey will not return with Mercedes.
(i). Mercedes F1 Business Plan: In announcing their decision to operate their own F1 team Mercedes announced that a principal objective was to do so on a frugal budget. Bringing Schuey on board would destroy Mercedes current business plan. Schuey is high maintenance - accustomed to very hefty pay days from Ferrari. Gracing Mercedes GP with his presence would not come on the cheap. Further, racers generally appear to have exaggerated opinions of their self-regard, self-importance and of their economic self-worth pace Raikkonen. Schuey would not expect any less remuneration from Mercedes than he had earned racing for Ferrari. Hiring Schuey means that Mercedes would be compelled to operate their team like the two elites - Ferrari and McLaren.
(ii). Ferrari & Massa: Mercedes may likely have to compensate Ferrari to secure Schuey's services. This will add to their operating cost. Further, should Schuey be deemed fit enough to race again then Ferrari may not want to release him, they may want to hold him in abeyance until they are certain that Massa can race a full season. Press reports indicate that individuals who have sustained Massa's type of injuries often subsequently develop epilepsy.
(iii). Competitiveness & Young Turks: Currently there are some very good young turks competing in F1. This elite group of top guns are competing with almost the same level of aggressive intensity of a young Schuey. In a Ferrari or a McLaren Schuey could hold his own against this group. But it is seriously doubtful that he could keep up with them driving either a Mercedes or a Red Bull. Moreover, Mercedes cannot guarantee that the new car will be anywhere as competitive in 2010. In 2009 the Brawn team got the jump on most of the other teams with the use of diffusers. The others teams would have learned their lessons. Schuey will not run the risk of adversely affecting the aura surrounding his reputation by being embarrassed by the young turks and by racing in a car whose potential competitiveness is uncertain.
(iv). Learning Curve: Schuey would have a steep learning curve to meet with a new team. This would be further magnified by the fact that he has been away from the sport for many years and is unfamiliar with much of the new regulations. Schuey would have problems adjusting to the structural design configuration of the Mercedes car. These problems will be made much more difficult by the absence of sustained testing in the car. This means that initially Schuey might be off the pace in the front-loaded races. The impact could reflect negatively on his reputation. As we saw recently even the very, very experienced Fisichella seems to be still trying to locate the accelerator pedal in the Ferrari.
(v). Marketing & Demographics impact: From a practical marketing perspective, Mercedes are far more likely to attract and sell a lot more of its products to an emerging and more diverse demographics if LH or FA were racing for their team. They however, are unlikely to sell anymore products if Schuey joins them. In essence, Mercedes have already captured that niche market segment that Schuey attracts.
(vi). High Expectations: Schuey will likely not be able to satisfy prevailing expectations. Racing fans would expect to see the same Schuey of old particularly the one that appeared in his memorably swansong race in Brazil. They might forget that as he ages his natural reflects are declining and his general skills are diminishing.
(vii). Health: The specifics of Schuey's injured neck disc or set of disc complex have not been disclosed. Evidently, the disc damage he sustained is really a serious pain in the neck. Depending on the level, the residual damage of the injury are likely to be always with him. Thus, it is unlikely that his neck will ever be able to withstand the g-force generated by racing. If the damage is at the C5-6 level then he probably might last half a season in a race car. If the damage is at the C6-7 or C7-T1 complex then he might not even last an entire race.
In conclusion, he has a lot to lose and very little to gain from attempting a come back particularly with a new team. Mercedes will stick to their announced business plan. Thus, Schuey will not return in a Mercedes.