A big weekend for Felipe

If Felipe is going to mount a serious challenge to Kimi and Lewis for this year's world title, you would think he must win at Istanbul Park this weekend. This, of course, is one of Felipe's favourite tracks where he drove to his first emotional Grand Prix victory in 2006 from pole. He then managed exactly the same feat last year and it would be quite something if he could do it a third time in succession.

Kimi is growing in confidence all the time and there are few in the paddock who do not regard him as already the de facto "number one" at Ferrari. Another win this weekend for him - it would be his third in five races with one second place to boot - would put him in the driving seat in more ways than one and Felipe will be left, arguably, playing catch-up for the rest of the season.

The track in Turkey is superb and should be capable of producing exciting racing. The pitlane exit is spectacular(downhill), turn eight is a monster and turn 12 is ripe for overtaking. However last year the race was dull apart from a "chunking" incident for Lewis with 15 laps to go(his front right tyre stripped just after he exited Turn 8, dropping him from third to fifth). Istanbul Park has some of the fastest sections on the calendar(from 9 to 12), but also some tight corners(4 & 5 and 12 & 14), but few are expecting McLaren to be quick enough in either department to take advantage.

The battles ahead thus look to be between Kimi and Felipe for glory and Lewis and Robert for third on the podium. As mentioned before, if Robert can qualify ahead of Lewis and then get a good start in the race, Lewis could have his work cut out to beat him. It is interesting that while Robert has struggled at the start, Nick made an excellent get-away in Spain, so it can't be long before the Pole gets it right.

We go to Turkey much earlier this year than last(August) and this will be my third visit to a track now run by Bernie himself after the local organisers were nearly bankrupted by an FIA fine for breaking the rules on the podium ceremony in '06. While the track is great, this race is infamous in Formula One because of the horrendous traffic congestion on the roads from downtown Istanbul, across the Bosphorous to the Asian side where the track is based.

So here we go again. Eight hours watching cars go very fast and at least four hours-a-day stuck in them, trying to get there and back, very slowly...

Comments

[Keith]

I have a feeling it will be one of those weekends where Massa has a fractional advantage over Raikkonen and so Raikkonen settles for second behind his team mate, because it's worth eight points and it's not worth risking everything for the extra two he'd get by coming first.

Just like last year then, when Raikkonen got out of the car afterwards and complained about how boring it was not being able to race his team mate because of the aerodynamic wash from his car.

[Angiox]

Just a point

You say: "If Felipe is going to mount a serious challenge to Kimi" ¿¿and Lewis?? "for this year's world title"

I agree; Felipe can challenge Kimi for this year's championship. But Lewis still has to present his bid. At this moment of the year, Kubika and Heifeld seem more reliable than Lewis (from my point of view).

If Ferrari did not mess up the first race, where would Lewis be?

I also have doubts about the start in Spain: Lewis pass through a tiny space between Kovi and Kubica (on Kovi's side). What would happen if Kovi wasn't Lewis' team-mate, do you think that Lewis could have done the same?

On the other hand, BMW, Ferrari and Renault seem to go forwards, while McLaren seems to go backwards.

[javiervivaespania]

Well, I do not think that Felipe's role is to challenge Kimi or Hamilton but substract points from the latter so that Kimi wins.

I wonder if Kimi will be ready to do the same next year for Magic, when he lands on Ferrari's garage. We will see, but there should not be other choice for him. However, I think that Kimi will leave Ferrari, too. I know Schumacher's recommendation will be to rebuild Ferrari for our Champion. That is the best option for its future.

[Adele]

Last year it was very close between Kimi and Massa, in fact at times it almost seemed like Kimi was faster then Massa. Therefore like last year I suspect it will be down to the qualifying again. It is still not completely certain that Kimi has definitely solved his qualifying problems. We will see on Saturday if Barcelona was a once off or a definite improvement. I also suspect that the hole in the nose might have something to do with Kimi's improvement in qualifying, and of course Ferrari will not be using the nose in Turkey.

Maclaren and BMW might also try to qualify with a bit less fuel and spoil the Ferrari party.

This race will be important to Massa, Ferrari traditionally decides who will be the number one after 6 - 8 races. This is a perfect chance for Massa to score the maximum points, because I think at upcoming races like Monaco Kimi will have a bigger advantage.

Massa has a really good chance of making it a hattrick win for Turkey, he is really fast around this track.

[Anon]

Maybe the BMWs will be able to stop Ferrari. They seems like a track they'd like a lot and they now know exactly hwo to balance race and quali.

Nick is better at this track than Robert, maybe both he and Robert will score major points.

And don't forget Heikki mixing it with Lewis.

[Johnny P-)]

Hi!

I'm looking forward to see closer competition on this track. Otherwise it will keep getting more and more boring as the season develops.

Still I must expect a one-two by Ferrari, but wondering what will it happen from third to sixth positions? I expect this fight will bring fun and colour to the Turkish GP. Nonetheless I hope overtaking is achieved on the track, not during pit stops.

Good Luck!

[Maurizio]

It'd be interesting to see if Renault will still have the improved (yet still not top-team like) pace displayed in Spain. Will they run Alonso light again?

[CHIUNDA]

"We go to Turkey much earlier this year than last(August) and this will be my third visit to a track now run by Bernie himself after the local organisers were nearly bankrupted by an FIA fine for breaking the rules on the podium ceremony in '06."

Now that is such a wicked way of stealing candy from a baby - there is conflict of interest written all over Bernie's acquisition of the track and i am sure the EU would have had something to say about it if Turkey was an EU member.

[Demian]

In Bahrain Massa won, and I predict he will do it again in Turkey.
Why?
Well, there's no real champagne at the podium, so it looks like Kimi is less motivated to win in those races... LOL!
(Just kidding, of course.)

[amackayj]

If Felipe messes up his quali or stops three laps earlier than Kimi, his WDC hopes are even more finished than they currently are.

But, as Ed said, Kimi could still settle for second and take the 8 points instead of try to overtake his team mate - thrilling to watch...NOT.

When is the FIA going to realise that the reason there is so little overtaking is not just the aero, and grooved tyres, but the fact that 2 measly points is just not worth it.
If there were a point for fastest lap, a point for pole and then 10, 6, 4 3 2 1 for the top 6 finishers (finishing 7th or 8th and getting points is a bit lame, IMO) then we might see more attempts to make up places, set the fastest lap, etc and also more teams doing low-fuel qualifying to get a point, hence messing up the grid a bit.

[IDR]

@ADELE

Nice to read your last post and the previous one you posted in the other thread.

But for this year, I think Kimi has taken the pace without driver aids much better than Felipe Massa.

Then, I’m not pretty sure that previous years should be enough to determine Felipe’s advantage.
In Spain, Felipe qualified so badly taking in consideration the extra-lap he had respect to Kimi.

If I have to bet something, I’ll never put all my bucks on Felipe. I think Kimi has something to say in this race.

And maybe, Kubica or Kova gives us a surprise! (If they and their teams do not decide to overload the car.)

@ AMACKAYJ

1) Pole 1 point? IMHO not good idea when everybody knows the big advantage the driver has when starts from the first position to win the race.

2) Fastest Lap 1 point? I don’t see how is going to improve the spectacle. I’ve never been excited when a driver does fastest lap during the race.

Instead of that, I will see giving the drivers extra points when they overtake other drivers that are in the points. (Not because DNF’s).

For example, If one driver starting fourth, ends the race 3rd, then he will take 1 extra point, if finish 2nd, two extra points, 1st 3 extra points. Those extra points will be deducted from the drivers finishing below the driver who has taken this bonus.

That would represent a big incentive for the drivers to overtake. If one driver is second he will know that if he achieve 1st, he will not only take the 10 points, he will take 11 while the driver who was 1st, will take not 8 but 7 points for finishing 2nd.

Then first position should have 4 points of advantage only when has been achieved overtaking others.