Cafe Society

I'm in Paris. This morning it rained. Normally that would be significant on a "foreign trip" for a motor racing reporter but this excursion has got nothing to do with cars on tracks.

Opposite my hotel, outside the Cafe Montorgueil, the locals are enjoying the late evening sunshine, smoking and drinking like Parisians do. It's great to be here in early summer, a lovely time of year to take the 20 minute walk down to the Place de la Concorde where tomorrow Max Mosley will come before his people and be judged.

As for tomorrow it is very hard to call. My esteemed colleague at the Guardian, Alan Henry, has put his long years in motorsport to excellent use with an opinion survey of 100 voting members who will attend the EGM. His results tell us that this is far from a done deal on either side. Alan found 37% wanted Mosley out, 25% were in favour of him staying, 9% were either undecided or not qualified to vote while 29% declined to comment.

What is hard to tell is how much these people have been following the developments of the last three months, how open to persuasion they are on the day and, most important perhaps, whether they will make a decision based purely on Mosley's personal fitness for office or a tactical decision based on any number of other "political" factors. You would have to guess that this last element is going to be critical.

In my view any decision which leaves Mosley in office is a bad one because it has already been established that he cannot do his job any longer, especially the most public elements, while his decision not to resign has opened raw wounds within his own organisation and outside it. Staying on is now a certain recipe for continued paralysis, not to say strife.

In recent weeks Mosley's people have made a big thing of telling us that Formula One isn't that important. However, as far as I remember, it was very important until the revelations in the News of the World. It is difficult to see how Mosley is going to work with Formula One if he gets the nod tomorrow. Bernie - genuinely - has had enough; the majority of teams don't want him - that is apart from the Red Bull pair and Williams, while Ferrari have got their own long game in mind - the sponsors don't want him and neither do most of the press room or the Grand Prix hosts. This is hardly a good basis for a working relationship going forward.

Tonight I am having dinner with Richard Woods. Is this the last supper so to speak, or just another step on the road to two more years of Mosley or possibly even more than that? Should be a very interesting evening, this close to the drama...

Comments

[Weasel]

To me it is clear whatever the outcome, a divorce is in the offing and Formula 1 needs to get away from the FIA. The question is really going to hang on the 100 year agreement and whether it is going to survive. How much crow is Bernie prepared to chomp on in order to cling to it. If some sordid insider trading details come up, then he also has to consider whether this may trigger an EU investigation and, whether as a result of such an investigation, the agreement is sustainable.

I do not think this is just a question about Mosley anymore, but rather about the future of the FIA itself and it's suitability or otherwise to govern world motor sports.

If Mosley goes down, and he has already shown his colours, he seems hell bent on bringing everything else down with him.

In the event that this proves to be his exit strategy, I believe we have only seen the tip of the iceberg as far as revelations of the world of the FIA are concerned.

[D]

^
Ed >

Bon appétit, notre brave !

(Who's paying for the dinner?)

Be sure to photograph the menu for us - you're in Paris! - and don't take your eyes off your laptop until you're safely on your way home...

Eat well and take care.

D.

[Aaron James]

I guess Richard will be setting the scene for what happens after Max wins tomorrow. I mean you've been pretty much Bernie's henchman in this whole story from the garage controversy to the Bahrain palace leaks. Mosley's man will point out you've picked your side, but like when Ceasar (Mosley) finally crushed Pompey (Ecclestone), he is going to forgive his enemies to focus on re-establishing his authority. To accept the real-politik means embracing his one-time enemies. After all, Rubython is back in the paddock, maybe Mosley has decided it's not best to attack the media and is instead going to need to embrace them in his battle to 'save' F1 from the machinations of CVC and their minion Ecclestone.

Your FIA credentials after all could be on the line and no doubt Woods will be offering some sort of olive branch while at the same time carrying a big stick.

I dunno, it's all rather fascinating, I'm just glad it's not my livelihood in jeopardy based upon my paddock politics.

No doubt Woods will be laying it all out for you, I guess we will know just what was said by how you cover the aftermath of Mosley's victory tomorrow.

[F1-Insider]

Ed you are obviously more trusting than me if you are taking Ecclestone's comments at face value with out any journalistic nous kicking in.

I post again my comments on the previous heading, rest assured he is two steps ahead, as I see it Ecclestone has set himself up for a win win scenario.

------------
Ed

Call me a cynic, but I am wondering if both Mosley and Ecclestone are colluding and politicking at the highest level with Ecclestone's recent statements and in particular the interview as published in the Telegraph.

Just consider for a moment the following: Ecclestone and Mosley have been all but inseparable for way over 35 years and the two men are responsible for how F1 and the FIA are today and by all accounts have been involved in many a secret deal, favours, blind eyes here or there and so on, both know each others underhand and alleged shandy dealings and it's accepted that both know things about the other they wouldn't want us and the media to know about.

Ecclestone's only interest in F1 is money and the further exploitation of the commercial rights of the F1-the business (I don't believe sport ever enters his mind). It is wildly known that major players if F1 from car manufacturers to the teams to major sponsors are not happy with the Mosley situation and want him removed as president of the FIA, as would happen in any corporate situation. After some considerable time Ecclestone in collusion with Mosley states openly on the record that Mosley should go which at the same time (having done the sums together with Mosley) has written a letter to all the clubs saying how he would be happy to work with the FIA president whoever that is.

Now does that smell like a very clever foot in both camps to you? Having done the sums both are pretty sure Mosley will secure the win he's after and in so doing can say that it is a business as usual with the commercial rights holder etc where Ecclesone can say to those that wanted Mosley out that he did all he could – bla bla bla.

If this happened both stay in post and no secrets about the other would likely be revealed as Mosley will go in 2 years anyway and Ecclestone cannot go on much longer due to his age if nothing else.

I would be interested to hear you views on this hypothesis, am I being too much of a cynic?

After all it's not like an alternative F1 governing body would affect Ecclestone in any way is it?????????????????

Read everything from him with one eye on what he is really saying, look two steps ahead!

[Anon]

Must be fun, spending your day doing nothing but pondering in the same cafes where existentialist philosophers met. And of course, Place de la Concorde, the execution square of Formula One where no glor is achieved: just the falls of turbulent giants.

Enjoy.

[DTM]

What happened at dinner? Come on Ed, spill the beans.

[F1-Insider]

Well I won my bet. Will a little luck,F1 will decide to leave the FIA and race under a new organisation as I have previously advocated.

Ecclestone - Win win!

[Anon]

Ugggh!

The post from "Anon" (3 Jun 2008 14:16:18) is not me, the Anon who posted all year.

Sorry mate, but would you min changing your name?