The race at the airfield - could be wet and windy

Just about to leave for Silverstone - I guess we should start thinking about who is going to win the British Grand Prix.

My gut feeling is that the circuit on the airfield in Northamptonshire is still a Ferrari track and, with that in mind, I would be erring on the same sort of prediction I made for Magny-Cours. That would be Kimi(with a new engine) leading Felipe to the flag with Heikki third.

On that occasion, a technical failure on Kimi's car, which has prompted the engine change, made a nonsense of that prediction. This time Kimi is due a smooth run. But I am going for Heikki again. In France this was in acknowledgement of the impact that Lewis's "carried-over" penalty from Canada would have; this time there is no penalty from the stewards but there is a penalty from the fame-game for Lewis.

Maybe he will prove to us that he can do it all; play with the rich and famous, turn up for umpteen sponsor engagements and then still win - or even get on the podium - at his home Grand Prix. I hope he can, but I doubt it...This is quite important in terms of his chances in the overall championship. He has slipped 10 points off the lead and he must at least get something on the board this weekend(for the first time in three races).

BMW seem to be concerned that they are falling off the top-three and have ear-marked Silverstone and Hockenheim as critical to their season. Robert always tells it as it is and he has warned that the team still has a lot to do. "We are currently far from the pace we need in order to challenge our front-running competitors and it's no secret that we need some good updates to get back to the level of competitiveness we showed in the early part of the season," he said earlier this week.

"The missed podium in Magny-Cours shows that we cannot rely on the others hitting trouble. Lewis's penalties probably just put one less car in front of me at the finish line. In Magny-Cours our gap to Ferrari was the highest so far and this was emphasised by the fact that some other teams have instead closed the gap to us. It's a signal that we need to take very seriously - and one we must react quickly to."

The spanner in the works for everyone is going to be the weather. The UK is under the influence of two Atlantic low pressure systems which are bringing rain and wind throughout the weekend. For Sunday, the Met Office is predicting a Low centred right over southern England. If this develops as advertised, this is could affect either qualifying or the race or both, although I have noticed, over the past few days, that even the short-term forecasting seems to be more than usually inaccurate.

Rain could help Robert and could help Lewis. It could also help Fernando who likes Silverstone. Even DC was talking about a possible win if it rains. That seems a very long shot for the Scot as he prepares for his 15th and, almost certainly, his last British Grand Prix. Predictions here...

Pics by the crap photographer from last year(IDR: I think these were taken with the Canon PowerShot S51S. Correct? It is a nice camera but is too big to carry around and the lens cap keeps falling off. Apart from that it's great.)

Comments

[Felipe]

I actually predict a good race for Hamilton, I think all these distractions are a bit more of a long term problem, like Aaron James commented (I think it was him). I think Massa will also do very well, and I predict a win from him or Hamilton, but it all depends on the rain. Massa had a great race in Monaco this year in the rain, but he's no good in the rain. I just hope that Alonso is able to have a solid race, he needs one as much as Hamilton does. The two outstanding drivers of last year are struggling this year.

My prediction:
1 Massa
2 Hamilton
3 Kimi
4 Robert
5 Alonso
6 Heikki
7 Heidfield

[Anon]

DC talking about a possible win? Let's try to pull some points first, eh!

Is the rain that bad? I'm no meteorologist, but if a Red Bul driver says he can win, I'm expecting tornadoes!

Preds: I already made some but I'm gonna change mine a bit.

But first:

1.) This GP will be very important to Lewis. Never has the media been harsher on him and never has he been more on the back foot. Heikki seems ready to soldier on as always.The Ferraris are incredible. Both Felipe and Kimi are burning hot and ready to race, in other words, their both on their on-days.
If he fails to make podium, he'll have snapped. Which is a good in a sense, he'll have to clmib back up from there and learn. If he survives and has a good result (decent, not great) then I think it would be good, but bad at the same time. Lewis can't live a life like this, it is too difficult. Real champions are workaholics liks Schumacher.

2.) This race will be decisive for Fernando. I hope he beats Piquet firmly so as to preserve the hierarchy.

3.) This race will be important for BMW. Although their season target is achieved, they should fight for more points andf what will probably be a second win (I hope Nick wins so he can get his prize and quit racing happily).

One thing that shocked is that Lewis signed a time that is 0.8 secs faster than his '07 pole tim ein the Silverstone testing. If that is true than things will truly be interesting.

Kimi
Heikki
Felipe
Lewis
Robert
Fernando
Mark
Rubens

[Weasel]

Ah yes, the great British summer, with it's "high humidity" - I miss it - not.

I am really intrigued as to why you hypothesize that Heikki may take third - on his current form? Is there something that you are not sharing with us or is this perhaps wishful thinking on your part with little basis in reality? I would be more inclined give Alonso or Hamilton a better chance of finishing on the podium. But, as always, hypotheses and predictions are likely to be about as accurate as the British weather forecast!

[Henkka]

Our predictions:

Daddy,
1. Kimi
2. Heikki
3. Felipe

Comments: Kimi loves this track and the car is in great shape (exhaust too), Heikki is much better than some of you believe, and Felipe has a great car but also another little incident.

The Son,
1. Heikki
2. Kimi
3. Lewis

Comment: a 4 years old boy often knows better...

Another member of the family,
1. Daddy in the new family wagon
2. The Son in his pedal car

Comment: P2 is possible at least against Fernando, because of the huge difference in the equipment.

IDR, I guess that the last entry is not very valid for the statistics, is it?

Everybody, have a great race!

[Greasy]

1. Kimi
2. Felipe
3. Bobby

Bonus Prediction:
More bonehead moves from Mclaren. Maybe they'll get by without a penalty, but it will cost race positions.

Nice pics. I always thought the journalists could get closer to the action.

[victor]

What is that Mr Gorman? are you losing you faith in LH? Last year all problems of LH were caused by FA, then Who is going to be blamed this year? time puts every one in his place and LH is showing this year his real caracter. Poor rich boy. In my opinion, it was the other way around, LH spoiled FA and MC championship, but nobody stopped him.

[FURIO]

http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2008/7/8033.html

Well, I must FIRST pay tribute to Mr. David Coulthard who has announced his retirement from F1.

I believe Mc Laren is in a better shape than Ferrari (see the results from testing in Silverstone last week), so my prediction is:

1) Hamilton
2) Raikkonen
3) Kovalainen
4) Massa
5) Kubica
6) Webber

[Prof Plum]

Please remember you saw it here first!

1. Hamilton
2. Kovalainen
3. Raikkonnen
4. Trulli
5. Coulthard

[IDR]

Race predictions

I think Lewis will be fighting strongly against Kimi to win the race, despite all his “commercial duties”. Top drivers are having busy time with sponsors, all of them, not only Lewis, so, that should not make any difference.

I would like to see heikki in the top, but I honestly don’t think so, keeping in consideration that Silverstone is Lewis home.

I’m still thinking that Felipe will not be consistent enough to produce a good result again, so, at the end my predictions for Silverstone are:

1 Lewis
2 Kimi
3 Robert
4 Felipe
5 Heikki
6 Alonso? Toyota seems to be quite strong, Red bulls too.

@ED

Silverstone_q_031.jpg:

Canon PowerShot s5 IS
Focus Length: 51,8mm
F Nr: 3,5
Time Exp: 1/1000

Nice camera but you’re right, thick as a brick.

@ANON (The real one, I suppose…)

IMHO, Silverstone test times from last week and last year pole comparison should be taken in consideration very carefully. Nobody knows fuel load for testing times. The same works for Ferrari times comparing them with McLaren.

Nothing is going to happen to Fernando’s hierarchy even if Nelsinho beats him in practise, qualy and in the race.

@HENKKA

So, your son prefers Lewis than Felipe and Heikki than Kimi… 4 years old and he starts to disagree with you. Busy time in the following years!

[Kate C-J]

Victor...get a life. You don't read what Ed says; you just decide he's biased before you even open the blog. There's no pleasing some people and you are one of them.

Also, why is LH a 'poor little rich boy'? Has he been complaining? I don't think so. He's made mistakes. He's admitted his errors. He knows he's young and has lots to learn. Why is it necessary to slam into him like a juggernaut? I can criticise him too but I don't have to 'bash him to bits'.

[Jorge Lardone]

I also first pay tribute to David Coulthard. He is a very good driver and deserves admiration from all of us, f1 fans.
Predictions for Silverstone (no rain)
1-Raikkonen
2-Massa
3-Hamilton
4-Kovalainen
5-Kubica
6-Trulli

[victor]

Yes Kate, you are right, I am not objective. I do not like at all LH. I see him as a selfish and arrogant person without any respect for team mate (double world champion), team strategy or team orders (Hungary 07). He can not appreciate the work of a team preparing a top class car. Last year MC had the best car and it was prepared before the starting of the season by engineers, FA and De la Rosa, and LH had few things to add. And later LH required all the team support for him not respecting all the team work previously done. The sad thing is that he obtained that support (The team equality last year is a joke, you only have to count the extra laps and better race strategies LH had compared with FA). It was a fatal error by Mr. RD, otherwise FA and MC would have been world champs. I know that all of us, FA and LH fans, are tired for this debate, but it is a pitty that FA, that had to wait during years to go to a top class team, had to leave, spoiling his career, because of the arrogance of LH and the inaptitude for managing of RD.

But time it is putting everyone in his place. FA has to go to Renault with low opportunities, but continuous growing and showing his high leadership in any team. I think he will be world champ again in coming years. LH could become the highest fake in sport ever. We will see

[colin grayson]

real bad move by alonso going back to renault ; he should have realised that without the special electronics and preferential treatment from michelin that allowed him to become world champion he would be in the second [ third?] class
perhaps he imagined he was in the same class as drivers like clark/senna/ moss ....who were able to win in other than the best car [ senna even finished on the podium in the toleman !!!]
now we know the truth , don't we

[colin grayson]

funny , victor
last year alonso said he got equal treatment with hamilton

you are calling him a liar ?

[Anon]

To IDR:

Obviously, Lewis's test time was done under low fuel. But now, unless I'm mistaken, there were no rules about fuel carrying over from quali to race last year, right? In other words, drivers could qualify with a bare minimum of fuel and still start the race loaded w/ fuel.(explaining the extremely boring races won from pole, which simply suck)

So in both cases, Lewis was on low fuel, right? Maybe there is more to this...

[Kate C-J]

OK Victor....so you admit you are not objective; nor am I but I don't think you have to be so heavy-handed in your criticisms. How much is any driver responsible for everything that happens to them before they hit the track? There is a whole team out there preparing strategies and keen to give them the best show possible. Yes, RD may have 'promoted' LH unwisely but can you honestly say that FA behaved impeccably at all times? I don't think so. He is a brilliant and passionate man (I mean about his sport) and wants the best for himself; they all do. It isn't a crime; what sportsman/woman isn't like that? So if LH seemed ruthless, surely he was just doing his job?

As to Ed's reporting which you attacked earlier, have you read how many times he has applauded FA's driving, his skill, and the difficulties of his situation? My point is that you ignore what he writes if it concurs with your view and then slam him when he says something critical of your 'God'. He is after all writing for a British newspaper and presumably feels that the Brits want to know what LH is doing. Does that make him biased? No, it means he's doing his job. Look at all the coverage Andy Murray got for being in the quarter-finals of Wimbledon. It's a 'bias' that all national newspapers have for their sports personalities. I don't particularly like it in that it raises these people up and when they can't achieve their dream they are bashed down and maybe the British newspapers are the most culpable in this respect. However, we have our heroes who are not british (Ronaldo? Nadal?) and we love watching them because they are supreme sportsmen.

I just think you could be a bit more measured in your words. You don't know LH (do you?) so why refer to his 'arrogance'?

[coretox]

people, i´m spanish, i like FA and i do not like LH and RD, but please people i think we have been talking so much about last year situation. there is more things in F1 to talk about. lets talk about present and future, we can not change past times.
some people (spanish and english) are obsesed about FA and LH.

we all know LH is a ****** little boy and FA is an arrogant person, NOW LETS TALK ABOUT RACE

[supercampeaobrasileiro]

1. massa
2. ham
3. raikkonnen

[Victor]

Hello Collin, FA won the champioship two times in an inferior car (performances were under ferrari ones) using Michelin tyres (as Mclaren), and beating Schumi twice in its Ferrari. He went to Mclaren and prepared, with his team, the best car of 07. But due to the worst management in a team in the whole F1 history (just my opinion), they could not get the championship. MC gave preference to LH who spoiled 17 points of leadership in two races (remarkable also in F1 history). FA could not win the championship because his own team did not leave him (the last races he could not fix his own car and even in Brasil he had problems to maintain the third position. MC gave him a shoe box in the last races). That is because FA fans consider how he was treated in MC out of any sense, logic, decent, respect …and they are not going to forget that easily. FA is not Senna but is the best driver at the moment (Times readers said that) and he should be now three times world champion and leading a top team as MC. I do not understand how Mercedes can stand with RD yet.

Good weekend to everybody

[Weasel]

@Victor

So it's not actually about Lewis then, but it's about Fernando and how unfair fate and the world has been to him eh? Hmm, that would be right and Fernando hasn't done anything to cause that situation then? Life's not fair eh? Get over it.

[colin grayson]

victor , yet again you miss the point

when ML swopped to michelin it was because they knew that bridgestone would tailor their tyres to ferrari ; unfortunately for them michelin tailored their tyres to renault so they were hung if they did , and hung if they didn't ....the chassis characteristics were different on the renault

with regards to the electronics , just get out your old recordings and see how often the auto-start on the renault enabled the car to overtake 2-3 cars from the starting line ...no driver skill involved , these systems shouldn't have been allowed in the first place in my opinion

so alonso beat MS twice , did he ?
in 2005 ferrari wasn't good enough to win a single race , MS at the wheel or not , whereas the renault was so good that even fissy won a race ; in those 2 seasons the renault was in a class of it's own for reliability , a huge advantage ; how many times in those 2 seasons did he have a puncture or mechanical failure ...I haven't checked , but not more than once or twice a season

face the fact , alonso is an excellent driver when all goes well , but the fact that he was voted the best current driver here [ I take your word for it ] owes more to the number of spanish contributors than anything else

Oh, come on! So Alonso is an excellent driver when everything goes well? Well,the same applies to every single driver on the grid I think. No driver wins championships in a bad car. Supposedly it is a combination of car + driver's ability. You can't deny him his merits that way, much as you don't like the guy. Last year Maclaren had everything: a very good car ( the best or second best) and probably the two best drivers on the grid. Hamilton leading the championship (the best driver according to some of you), and he sent all to the devil in just two races. What happened? He is just an exception on that issue: he can't do things right even when things are going well. Yes, it was his rookie year.
But he had everything to achieve the championship: a very good car, the team support, the press behind him, and he just left it slip off his hands.The same this year. No need his competitors being better, he is on a class of his own, he either breezes it or spoils it: he win or loses all by himself. He is feeling the pressure, but what pressure? I repeat, he is a good driver, he has a very good car, he has the team working to help him win the championship, he is clear number one and his team mate is no challenging him. What is the problem?

If Alonso won the poll thanks to Spanish contributors, then you should perhaps ask English ones to participate. Nothing stopping them or people from other countries.
With polls I admit everything is relative. It depends on the moment, the voters and other factors. But that is a risk you always run. One has no other way than to accept results, if not, there is no point in voting.

[Felipe]

Colin you need to get a grip on reality!!!! I understand if you want to wind him up, but otherwise get your head checked.

[Carleton Twitchell]

The roads to Donington cant be any worse than those to Silverstone ...two-laners,hot,humid, with dusty tracks to the car parks and jams going in and out .
My predilections ..(oops sorry pervs!) ..predictions are as follows :-)
1 Kubica
2 Hamilton
3 Trulli
4 Webber
5 Massa
6 Coulthard
7 Glock
8 Rosberg

What next a GP in Argentina ???:)

[IDR]

@ANON

Sorry Sir but I’m afraid you’re wrong. Last year regulations for fuel refuelling during Q3, allowed to refuel cars with the equivalent fuel burned during Q3, in order to start the race with the fuel selected for Q3. Then, there were that boring issue (and conflictive) of fuel burning laps in order to make qualy laps as lighter as possible.

But, at the end, every Team/driver who were part of Q3 were restricted to make Q3 times with the fuel they decided to have for starting the race (less the burning laps), so there were significant time differences between Q2 and Q3 as this year. You only have to look at the stats of Q2, Q3 times:

Silverstone 2997 (Q2) Q3 Times:

Lewis (1:19.400) 1:19.997 +0,597
Kimi (1:19.252) 1:20.099 +0,847
Fernando (1:19.152) 1:20.147 +0,995
Felipe (1:19.421) 1:20.265 +0,844