The Formula One roller-coaster ride

Here is IDR's "roller-coaster" graphic to help us get in the mood for the next seven races. Who will it be? Lewis, erratic, supremely talented, unbeatable on his day? Kimi, the quiet assassin, the long game player? Felipe, the emotional virtuoso who can play sublimely but who can sometimes look almost like a beginner? Or Robert, the deadpan Pole with raw speed and courage but a car that ain't quick enough? (Click image to enlarge).

Comments

[Nick Caulfield]

I would like to see it together with the one for the total points of each of those 4 drivers - ie one which steadily increases and a finish outside the points is just flat for a race. This one has visual impact but is quite tricky to process mentally

[Gary M]

IDR, what can I say? You have certainly done one thing and demonstrated what a bit of a strange old season it has been so far.

I think the unlucky is obviously Kimi, without that shunt from Lewis in the pits in Canada one would assume his season would be looking pretty tidy - the only one I might add. If your intention is to use form as a guide then without a doubt Kimi is in pole position for the title.

But i think we have all seen Kimi in the last couple of races and he just does not look like a winner anymore. Has something gone? If he comes back from his holidays refreshed and re-motivated then yes, Kimi is favourite. But my god Massa looks the most hungry and really should be seen at Ferrari number one at the moment.

Lewis? Well, same old story really. If he keeps his car on the track and stays error free then really he should win every race remaining. He is clearly the fastest car/driver combo in the "sport" at the moment and should win the WC easily. But keeping the car on the track is a big ask.

Whatever happens though this is set to be the greatest climax to a WC season for many years and I thought last year was great! Lucky us I say.

Good luck.

[McCheets]

BMW have achieved their stated aim of one victory for the year, and have experienced a relative performance drop-off since then. They are most likely focussing on next year. Hence, it is unlikely that Kubica will return to the fore, unless of course the other three continue with their haphazard seasons.

Hamilton is only in his second season, and so mistakes are to be expected from him. Massa and Raikkonen have made too many mistakes for drivers with their levels of experience. I would like to see Massa come out on top, but would not be surprised if he is usurped by Raikkonen as the lead Ferrari driver as the season draws to a close.

[Alfredo Nieto]

A big warm 'thank you' to IDR for his amazing work with the statistics!

PS: loved the wink :D

[Onome O]

Kimi is a fast driver but God is he boring! Its so much fun to watch Lewis, Alonso or Massa win a race and its even more fun to see how they celebrate it. That to me is hunger for more wins. Kimi in this respect lacks drive, passion, emotions and the look of a winner. Kimi can kill F1 if he is allowed win more WC. Lucky him Lewis suffered a DNF in China last year

[steve]

Lovely work from IDR here, cheers! Very interesting to see how the fortunes of the top four have fluctuated so much, quite a topsy-turvy season to date.

Another interesting graphic would be grid positions and how they flow through to finishing positions...

For the poster who mentioned a graphic showing the points totals for each driver as they build throughout the season, I remember seeing this graphic somewhere but I can't find it right now... :-(

[CHIUNDA]

Something is not perfectly well in the Ferrari camp and i think it will take more than the summer break to mitigate it since McLaren didn't go into snooze mode either. My suspicions with Kimi's motivation is that it probably has something to do with the rumors about Alonso moving to Ferrari. We may all be speculating about a 2010 move but if Kimi's mood swings are Alonso related then a 2009 move maybe more likely. In which case Massa is the No.1 driver this season which would be a double whammy against Kimi's motivation and which would explain Massa's current form.

If this were the case, then Ferrari have either given up a serious challenge to the title this season and any make believe is just for the benefit of sponsors (unlikely scenario) or Ferrari still have a boardroom card they could play later in the year to derail McLaren's hunt for the title (usual Ferrari tactics). Thus from where i sit, i can see Lewis extending his lead to even up to 20 points in the next few races just like last year. But watch for Ferarri insisting that they will still win both or one of the Championships. We may not have heard the last of the "dubious" engine development - but the finger this time may be pointing at McLaren rather than the Marenello outfit.

With our favorite President of the FIA still flexing muscles how do we expect the twisted corporate politics in F1 to change and allow a clean championship fight?

[IDR]

@NICK CAULFIELD

I also made the same graph using race points, and watching it you will realize that is even trickier than the one posted. (The scale changes, so it has much more ups and downs)

@GARY M

Yes this season is a little bit strange. I think in this moment we have 3 title contenders with real possibilities for achieving the WDC.

In any case, I think Lewis is the favourite for getting the title.

He has not been very consistent but on the other hand, he has been able to take some crucial points when things were not going well (Barhain, Hungary) and when he found the pace, he was unbeatable (Australia, Monaco, Britain and Germany).

But, he has not had mechanical problems up to now. Surely this year McLaren is far more reliable car than Ferraris, but it’s difficult to see a trouble free season.

I agree with you Kimi should be now co-leading (or leading) WDC if Lewis would "rubbed" other driver's back in Canada, but on the other hand, Kimi seems to have lost the hunger for winning a WDC.

Well, honestly talking, I never see him having this extra-determination a driver needs to achieve the title. He is an extraordinary driver, the fastest of the grid IMHO, but it is like if he don’t fell the need to get the title; he has fun racing and sometimes seems that’s enough for him…

or it’s just because he is not having fun now. Who knows?

And Massa, big question mark; I honestly don’t know what to think about him. Sometimes he looks like a champion (Turkey, Hungary) and in others… 5 spins in one race! (Briatin).

At the end I think he is a great driver, quite fast in 1 lap, but I don’t think he is champion’s material.

In any case, when you see the chart, this season is a crazy one. Good for us.

And… what next?

Valencia, another big question mark for everybody (Teams included) and no space for more “downs” in the way for the Championship.

It’s great! I cannot wait!

[EP]

If Kimi can't get his tyres working in quali, then they don't work. It doesn't matter how much he would "want" them to work.

All this talk about Kimi's (lack of) motivation is silly. Kimi only wants to win; maybe if he sees that during some weekend he doesn't have changes of winning, then he can have motivation issues, but he's still going to every new weekend to win.

Kimi, last week, to Bild: "If I race, I want to win. [] Not even a third place feels like anything to me anymore.

Those who are saying that I'm content or tired are just wrong. If we do not win both championships this season we will be dissapointed."

[Anon]

Sigh. Anothe rone of these Alonso supporters with no respect for hard facts and and statistics spewing out the usual bias. It's easy to tell IDR has no love of F1 whatsoever from this.

Just kidding of course. Awesome graph.

I agree with you that Lewis will win. He better win because I have a hard time seeing the McLaren as competitive next year.

I think Kimi just needs to win a race to get back in shape. Just one will probably spark him again, like France and Britain did. If he keeps scoring sixth places and all, Fernando might be shoved intot eh Scuderia earlier than he thinks.

Which reminds me, can anyone give me a decet explanaiton why Renault keep developing their '08 car?!! It drives me nuts to here Symonds say that by the end of the season they'll have the third-fastest car. Great, you'll enjjoy that for how long? THree races? Why are they doing it? Does Renault want to pull out of F1 and ares imply spending away the rest of their budget or what?

Oh, IDR: Lewis picked up no points in Bahrain. Aren't I picky?

Take care!

[Anon]

HAHA! I just realized the car tucked in saying "Yes it's me" is Fernando- as he fiinished fourth in Hunagry. COuld hardly recognize the car. Heehee! GOod one.

[IDR]

@ANON

You are right man. I mean to say Malaysia, not Barhain.

At Malaysia, Lewis had many problems:

He was demoted 5 places in the starting grid
15 Seconds delay in the first pit stop because a problem during the removal of the right-front
Wrong tyre strategy

despite all those problems he was able to finish 5th, taking 4 valuable points that could be crucial at the end of the Championship.

[IDR]

GAMES:

"A game is a system in which players engage in an artificial conflict, defined by rules, that results in a quantifiable outcome" (Katie Salen and Eric Zimmerman)

A poll asking who is the best F1 driver is a Game. (despite some people could consider it much more crucial than this!)

ATHLETE:

“A person who is proficient in sports and other forms of physical exercise”

A Fireman is an Athlete for sure despite he is not performing a “leisure activity”

SPORT:

Is hard to find a more less concrete definition of what should be considered Sport.

At the end, many people consider as sport, those games where the physical capabilities of the competitor are the primary determiner of the outcome (winning or losing).

In other words, Sport could be considered as a Game performed by Athletes.

And MotorSport?

Well, technology, is not as older as language and this is the reason in many occasions we found difficult to say if a

“Game performed by an Athlete using a self propelled machine allowing him to surpass the body limitations”

could be considered a “proper sport” or not.

At the end, one can say Motor Sport surely is a Sport, but is more than a Sport also…

never less!

[Tim]

Anon - I can think of a few reasons why Renault are continuing to develop their 2008 car until the end of the year.

Renault's tenure as an F1 team (as opposed to an engine supplier) has never looked permanent, especially compared to the likes of Ferrari, McLaren or Williams. The boss of the French manufacturer has guaranteed the team's future - but only it continues to be successful, and not many would be able to argue that the last two years have been great years for the team. So, as you suggest, the development push could be an attempt to secure fourth place in the constructors championship in order to secure continued backing for the team's efforts. For all we know, the Renault board has set an internal target of being in the all-important top four.

Another possible (related) reason is that BMW Sauber, having met their internal target of winning a race this year, are focussing on their 2009 package. Honda are doing likewise. Toyota and Red Bull may well do the same. This potentially opens up a gap for Renault to be best of the rest behind Ferrari and McLaren. If BMW Sauber can slip through the middle and win a race, then why not Renault? If the French team keeps pushing its car to the end of the year, there's a chance (however slim) that it may be able to capitalise on other teams taking their eye off the ball.

Alternatively, the team's funding could be secure - but that the contract of its number one driver is decidedly not. It's generally belived that Fernando Alonso signed a contract with Renault that included performance clauses - e.g. if the team finishes lower than fourth place then Alonso is free to look for a drive elsewhere. Perhaps the team is concerned that there is a real risk of the performance clauses being acvtivated and losing Fernando to Ferrari, BMW Sauber or even Honda for 2009. If Alonso left the team, it'd be in pretty awful shape - who would take his place? Heikki Kovalainen has just signed a new McLaren deal. If Kimi Raikkonen left Ferrari he'd almost certainly retire rather than move to another team. Nick Heidfeld is already tied into BMW Sauber and I can't see Robert Kubica being allowed to slip through the team's fingers. Nico Rosberg is contracted to Williams and Mark Webber to Red Bull. The only real possibilities would be a swap for Felipe Massa if Alonso were to join Ferrari, Rubens Barrichello if Fernando moved to Honda or trying to get Giancarlo Fisichella to rejoin the team from Force India. Alternatively, the team could promote one of its test drivers, Romain Grosjean perhaps, but any of them alongside Nelson Piquet Jr would be an incredibly inexperienced line up. I doubt that any of these options look particularly good to Flavio and co. Could the departure of Alonso (and the lack of a decent replacement) effectively force the team out of F1 for good?

Or all of this could be wrong and the team is confident that it can do its 2009 package justice while continuing to develop its current car. After all, Renault was one of the first to adopt a two year cycle is the design and development of its cars, i.e. the people who designed and developed the 2004 car went straight onto designing the 2006 car. It's always possible.

[CHIUNDA]

IDR notwithstanding that you are likely to pay more attention to this post, that bit about games, sports and athletes has its place elsewhere. It really through my thought process to pieces when i came across it. But then again it could be a computer glitch.

[A Parker]

"Consistency is the key" - so sayeth the Lord Lewis of Hamilton. I hope he hasn't been too distracted by Nicole Scherzinger.

[CHIUNDA]

Tim you make perfect sense especially on the first paragraph.

[Derek Smith]

I can't help thinking that too much emphasis is being placed on concentrating. McLaren, Ferrari and BMW at least have the resources to run a current and a 2009 system. Whilst there must be some balances, I would suggest that the front running teams are used to running two programs side by side. The systems are in place and just because there are an unusual number of changes for 09 it is no reason to abandon proven methods of working. It's the teams that panic that will fail.

And if a team did 'give up' on this season, one wonders what their sponsors might say when renewal time approached.

I agree that Renault is in trouble and we are unlikely to see a competative team for 2009. Mosley's much vaunted economy measures are costing teams at their level much too much given the current world wide stagnation. Their parent car company are struggling as well and it is difficult to see Formula 1 being much of a high priority for them. Whilst they might spend the same amount of money on a redesign of a front wing, at least at the end of it they've got a redesigned front wing. What does money spent on a brand new engine, car and suspension bring? It's alright suggesting that KERS might have applications in the real world but if it was that promising, they'd be doing it already.

I know I might be talking absolute rubbish but I can't see the likes of McLaren, Ferrari, BMW and Red Bull changing their established systems, throwing caution to the wind and only researching 09's problems.

[D]

^
Great one, as always, IDR. Well done!

Apologies for the delay in getting back into the fray - am redecorating my den and restructuring my computer setup in the process. This is written on a laptop in the kitchen (where I am getting disapproving looks).

Back with you soon, friends (and critics).

Enjoy the race, everyone! (And particularly Ed.)

[Anon]

Tim: Yes, it's very strage.

I thought about Alonso's contract. The media has been reporting that Renault need to finish third in the championship to keep him: but that eems impossible for them right now.

Maybe it's just an illusion and they actually are working crazy on '09 and are tricking us.

A driver line-up without Fernando would be crazy difficult. Maybe Sato-Piquet? It all seems weak.

I'm wondering if Fernando is pushing the team to develop on '08 so he can have more fun in '08 and then move to another team.

[IDR]

@CHIUNDA

It's not a computer glitch, it's a human error.

In fact I posted again that coment in the proper thread.

Maybe Ed could delte this one.

In any case, sorry for all problems that error could have caused to anybody.

[A Parker]

Ed, I like the way you edited my comment. Oh well, I tried to get away with it. She is in the Pussycat Dolls though ...

[Chris Finlayson]

Here's a simple - or, perhaps, just simple-minded - move to cut the cost of race weekends by one-third. Eliminate Friday practice. Practice on Saturday, qualify Sunday morning, and race in the afternoon.

[Derek Smith]

Here's an even easier way to cut costs: stop Mosley imposing his cost-cutting idiocies on F1. We've lost Cosworth and Mecachrome already - Cosworth of all companies. They've been in F1 longer than I have and I started in 1966.

One wonders how much the design, development and engineering of the completely new cars has cost the teams. How many teams will Mosley's ideas cost the sport?

There is no way to cut costs in F1. The teams with the big budgets will spend all they have and that goes for the teams with the medium sized budgets and those with microscopic budgets as well. Even if Ferrri save money on engineering and put it all into corporate entertainment, it will only encourage more sponsors and allow them to spend more money on engineering.

F1 has some of the most innovative and inventive engineers in the world. Put some artificial limit on one aspect of the car and they will develop another. The limit on aerodynamics will favour teams like McLaren with their massive wind tunnel.

One way of limiting costs is to encourage teams like Cosworth and Mecachrome not forcing them to withdraw.

Cosworth has been the stalwart of Formula 1 and now, after all they've done, lack of consideration for their needs has forced them to withdraw.

[D]

^
Re controlling the cost of Formula One.

I remember reading many years ago of a way this was achieved in a (now forgotten by me) variety of motor racing in America.

They had a rule that at the end of the race, anyone would be allowed to purchase the winning car for $10,000 (again, I've forgotten the precise figure but it was set at sum that did not penalise the person who had built something safe enough to race, yet ensured that he would not construct something prodigally expensive).

I loved the simple ingenuity of that idea.

Now, of course I'm not suggesting that this should be applied to Formula One for 2011 but I have to admit that an image of Stefano Domenicali trotting down to the parc fermé at the end of the Australian Grand Prix with a wad of Euros and driving away in McLaren's latest pride and joy is not without a certain appeal.

It's a problem for the FIA, though, isn't it. I mean, even their kangaroo court couldn't get away with "fining" a team $100,000,000 as a "cost cutting" penalty, could it?

But perhaps the FIA is going to come up with something more in keeping with its noble ideals and pass a rule that anyone who builds a car that wins three races in a row will be flogged until they bleed. In private of course. And in German uniforms. After they've been inspected on their knees for head lice. Nothing serious, of course, just a friendly frolic, an afternoon of fun with the FIA's führer, getting flogged. Nothing wrong with a bit of violence and bloodletting among friends, is there? And then they could all have a cup of tea, served by a hooker, to show there were no hard feelings.

Yes, I'm sure the FIA is right - this is the way forward and the solution must be one that earns it respect.