Tim's masterly comparison of 2008 with 1986

EG writes: Tim has provided consistently excellent commentaries in the build-up to every race for some months and this blog has been all the better for it. This one, originally a comment on my post "Sitting on the dock of the bay", offers a fascinating comparison between this season and the humdinger of 1986. Have a read...

Tim writes: Spa will be an absolutely critical race in the championship. It should be a Ferrari track and which one of their drivers gets the upper hand could well determine who Ferrari supports for the title.

Last year Maurice Hamilton wrote a book comparing 2007 to 1986, a year characterised by three drivers (Alain Prost, Nigel Mansell and Nelson Piquet) fighting for the title until the very final round of the championship. Piquet and Mansell didn't get on, the Brazilian believing that the team should focus all its efforts on him, as a double world champion, rather than the upstart Mansell. Williams had the faster car, but the two drivers took points off one another throughout the season. Going into the final race, Mansell was the title favourite but a tyre failure cruelly robbed him at the last gasp. Prost slipped through the middle to win the title - sound familiar? As comparisons go it's hard to argue with, although the personalities differ somewhat (although I personally quite like having Felipe Massa in the Keke Rosberg role at the title decider!).

So if 2007 was a re-run of 1986, does 2008 bear any similarity to 1987? In some ways, yes - four drivers (driving for three different teams) battled for most of the year. For those too young to remember, the main story of the 1987 season was four drivers slugging it out for the world championship. Alain Prost in a McLaren-Porsche that was getting a bit too long in the tooth, the fiercely competitive Nelson Piquet and Nigel Mansell driving for the dominant Williams-Honda team and Ayrton Senna, driving out of his skin in the sophisticated but highly strung (and actively suspended) Lotus-Honda.

Easily the fastest driver/car/engine combination was Mansell, but he suffered various misfortunes through the year and his title challenge ended in a Suzuka tyre barrier. Prost was reknowned for his strategic approach and had won the previous year by slowly racking up points while other fell by the wayside. In 1987, however, even Alain's cunning couldn't overcome the outdated McLaren/Porsche package, which was being pushed just that little bit too hard to keep up with the Williams-Hondas. Senna was, as ever, fast in qualifying but could rarely maintain that pace in races. The Lotus active suspension worked brilliantly on street circuits (but was rather different from the version Williams would later perfect in 1992) and Ayrton struggled on more conventional circuits - not that that stopped him from driving like a man possessed! The eventual champion was Piquet who, following the events of 1986 and a huge shunt at Imola, had decided that he couldn't beat Mansell by speed alone and played the percentages.

On form to date, the Senna/Lotus role is clearly being filled by Robert Kubica and BMW Sauber - Hinwil has produced a very sophisticated car, which works very well when the setup is right but when it doesn't (see Hungary) then Kubica has to really fight for points. Following 1987, Lotus kept Honda engines (widely acknowledged as the best) but lost its number one driver to McLaren and was nowhere the following year. BMW Sauber has just taken up its option on Kubica for another year, so should avoid (or at least defer) the same fate, but should be wary about focussing too much on pursuing a title it stands little chance of winning.

I'd put Kimi Raikkonen in the Mansell role - fast but unlucky (some of it self-induced). Raikkonen has endured a pretty horrific run of bad form and misfortune which has more or less plagued him since Monaco. To recap, at Monaco there was the drive through penalty after Ferrari personnel stayed on the grid for too long and the crash with Adrian Sutil. In Canada, Kimi was crashed into in the pitlane just as he was looking like he had the speed to challenge for the win. In France, Raikkonen lost an easy win to a broken exhaust. In Britain, a poor tyre choice cost Kimi at least second place. In Germany, a poor qualifying performance and poor start meant a poor result despite a decent race performance. The same happened in Hungary, albeit with the added misfortune of suspension failure before Raikkonen could challenge Timo Glock for second place. In Valancia, another poor qualifying performance put Kimi on the back foot in the race, during which he injured one of his crew by leaving his second pit stop early and then suffered a blown engine (possibly related to the pit stop problem). Almost Mansell-esque, really. Kimi can still win the title - but it's an increasingly big ask as he's now behind his team mate as well as Lewis Hamilton. Spa will be critical - if Kimi fails to win and Massa scores well, any hopes of a second title will be in the same shape Mansell was following that argument with the Suzuka tyre barrier.

I reckon Felipe Massa is in the Prost role, although more of Massa's problems have been self-inflicted than Alain usually managed. A blown engine in Australia, safety car/refuelling issues in Canada, the blown engine in Hungary - all out of Felipe's control and all damaged his title challenge. Where the comparison falls down, of course, is that Massa would have been leading the championship by a decent margin had he not spun off in Malaysia and made a better fist of the British GP. Although, of course, Prost was never exactly an ace in the wet either. Felipe can take the title fight down to the wire, and even win it, but recent Ferrari reliability problems, an eight point deficit and an in form Hamilton will all be weighing heavily on his mind - will the pressure go to his head?

This leaves Lewis Hamilton filling the Nelson Piquet role. Lewis had obviously had some pretty scrappy races this year - Malaysia, Bahrain, Canada and France were all pretty dire for one reason or another. But in Australia Hamilton kept his head while his main title rivals struggled. In Spain he put in a good drive to get the most from his equipment and nearly gave Ferrari a shock in Turkey. Monaco and Germany saw well judged recovery drives after mistakes (one by the team in Germany) and Hungary and Valencia could have been much worse. Lewis now has a healthy points lead and only needs to maintain it, putting pressure on his rivals to win. Where the comparison falls down is that Hamilton isn't driving in the same manner as Piquet in 1987 just yet, and may yet succumb to the temptation of victory rather than settling for second. On this basis, I reckon Lewis has to be the clear title favourite - as long as he holds his nerve.

So if 2007 was 1986 and 2008 was 1987 will 2009 bear any resemblance to 1988, when Prost and Senna won all but one race for McLaren-Honda? With the new rules coming in I doubt any one team will be that dominant, and that's something we should all be pleased about.

Comments

[Derek Smith]

Thanks for a fascinating summary, Tim.

It’s interesting to note that the role you have ascribed to drivers on performance and position bear little resemblance to their characters: Prost and Massa, LH and Piquet.

On one point I’ll not so much disagree as caution. I can’t help but fear that next season will be a repeat of the McLaren year with one team – not necessarily McLaren of course – being totally dominant. There are so many changes, so much is up for grabs that if one engineer cracks the best set-up, or even a pretty good one, then the others will struggle to catch up.

This season has proved the engine modification rules as rubbish. Renault are left wandering about at the back of the grid and are not competitive. Yet one or two minor mods might well put them back up there challenging, if not for honours, then at least decent points.

And it is the same with aerodynamics, KERS and tyres. Get the mixture slightly wrong and your car will struggle. One of the teams is bound to crack the best way to go and the rest of the grid might as well be Renaults.

KERS might be a waste of money or the secret weapon but I can’t help but feel that aerodynamics will dominate. Those teams with the big wind tunnels will have such an advantage that the others will lag behind. Haven’t Ferrari just built themselves a dirty great big one?

Wasn’t it some French politician who said that you need to change things in order for them to remain the same?

[Anon]

I think that if one team were to win all of the races next year, it would have to be BMW-Sauber.

I think it is clearly obvious that ever since their swin in Canada they stopped '08 development and threw themselves at '09. Since then, the car has gone worse and worse, simply because they don't care about it. An interview of Willy Rampf shows him saying that they don't care about '08 and only are focussing on '09. Sure, they say a lot of "we're not giving up on '08", but they're probably trying to reassure McLaren and Ferrari to go all-in for this year and then fail completely next year.

No other team that is investing completely in '09 is close enough to the frontrunners to actually pose a problem. Honda, Williams, and Force India have too much of a gap to fill.

So next year, Robert may inherit the role of Ayrton Senna. It's a role that he could easily fulfilll, I think. He is incredibly fast on street circuits and knows the ropes.

His teammate? It's looking less and less like Nick, which is a pity. If it is Fernando (it won't be) the Prost-Senna comparison would be pretty nice... But I have no idea who it will be. Klien? Asmer? Would make for a pretty inexperienced lineup. Wurz would be perfect for this, but he's out of the running.I don't know, but they better get an experienced driver ready to set up the car, because it's difficult to set up. Maybe Fernando is the right choice after all. Robert v. Fernando- that would be a might championship. Just like 1988.

[Anon]

I sometimes regarding articles from Planet F1 because despite being biased they have a good sense of humor.

but today I read something which almost made me ***** in my pants it was so hilarious.

it's an article talking about how Schumi and lewis are similar. It's also written by a two year old.

Lewis and Schumi are so dissimilar its increedible.

1.) Lewis drives on instinct. Schumi drove on a technical sort. He knew the car, he was the car, he made the car, whatever you want. but Schu would never let a technical problem like contantly-exloding tires bother him.

2.) Schu is hardcore. When he fought for a championship, he did it off track, on track, etc. If the stuff was to be decided ontrack, he solved it by putting the problem offtrack. Think Monaco '06, Villeneuve, Hill, etc. Lewis doesn't cheat in that way.

Panet F1: Schumi and Lewis overtake against great odds. Passable. Lewis has had some great overtaking amneuvres, but none of the kind slower car v. faster car. He's always overtaken in a superior car (or almost)> I can't really see him doing an Alonso on Kimi&Heikki or a Nick on Heikki&Kimi or a Sato on Alonso (banzai!). Sure, he's great at overtaking. Does this really make him Schumi?

Planet F1: "Both Lewis and Michael elicit strong emotions in racing fans. They're either loved or hated. It might be because they both have a very high opinion of theirown respective talents. "

Seriously? you could say this about Alonso, Kimi anybody. That is so general it's hilarious.

Then they go on to the Lewis was great friends with Robert and Felipe. Yayadayada, forget that Robert has said he and Lewis aren't buds anymore and that Felipe and Lewis are only on picture on podium together. And what was that that Lewis said about Felipe?

Here, they give six reasons why lewis and Schumi are similar. Here are mine why Alonso and Schumi are similar too:

1.) Both are good in the rain.

2.) Both are great overtakers.

3.) Both are controvrsial- Hungary '07 for Alonso, and a ton of stuff for Schumi.

4.) Both evoke passions in people.

5.) both like secondary drivers (Fisi for Alonso, Massa, Barrichello, and Irvine for Schumi).

6.) both won two titles with Beneton/Renault before having a prolonged bad moment. For Schumi, it was four years. For Fernando, two and counting.

In case people think I'm doing Alonso pandering, I'll give six reasons why Fernando is not like Schumi:

1.) Alonso won't win as much as Schumi.

2.) He maybe controversial, but not as much as Schumi.

3.) He hasn't given much to charity like Schumi.

4.) Fernandop went to McLaren, Schumi to Ferrari.

5.) Fernando is not a fighting machine like Schumi.

6.) Erm, sorry to say, but Fernando is simply not as good as Schumi.

In fact, taking the standards Planet F1 set, everyone can be Schumi. Including by cute lil puppy (she never puts a foot wrong in the rain, and boy do people love her).

[Anon]

The Planet F1 thing reminded me of just how greast this blog is.

When you are ***** over there, there is no simple way to talk to the author of the stuff that is said. In fact, for the Schumi article, I can't even know who wrote it. THat is the great thing about this blog. Last year, Mr. Gorman wrote some particularly mean articles about Fernando. I remmeber one special one he wrote about Turkey '07, saying sarcastically that Fernando drove beautifully (what was great about that one is that it was answered in the exact same terminology by dude called Alfonso who said the exact same stuff about Lewis). Of course, the Spaniards were ticked (I didn't belong to the blog just then) and so a huge love-hate relationship started. Mr. Gorman got a ton of critics and insults. But even then, those Spaniards never left the blogger they claimed didn't know anything about F1. Why? Because they could actually have a conversation with him. And now, the blogger has a much better opinion of Fernando and there is much less warfaring going on in the blog. To compromise, a lot of Spaniards have tuned it down and have more and more given Lewis credit. I think that in the process we as commentators and Mr. Gorman as a blogger have both improved. The guy at Planet F1 who is making a series on how lewis is Senna, lewis is Schumi, (next up, Lewis is Prost and Fangio) never has the opportunity to improve and acutally see others point of view. That's what I love about this blog and its host.

[todd]

great summary, went a little lewis fan crazy at the end... every other driver had details on every problem, but brushed hamiltons away and talked about how he is so great, was enjoying it until he didn't criticize hamilton in the same light.

is it just me who remembers that he crashed into the back of alonso in bahrain, didn't engage launch control of the grid of malaysia, sideswiped a wall and caused a puncture in monaco, crashed into the back of 2 stopped cars at 80kmph in canada, overshot a corner and gained an advantage while overtaking and was penalised for it in france and was driven around the OUTSIDE of turn 1 by massa in hungary....

he talks about everyone else's incidents but never mentions his, that's only thing that annoys me about british media - and makes me dislike lewis.

if it wasn't for the media i'd actually like him and support him as a driver because he does have a talent and will be a world champ very soon, but at this rate i hope it never happens because the media will start calling him senna and never shut up.

anyway, that's the end of my rant, was a great comparison article about the rest of the drivers and seasons though.

With hamiltons 8 point lead at the moment if he can go for points every race and not so much wins i think he'll take the championship.

Kimi's going to start taking points out of massa no doubt and all drivers have had self inflicted - and team inflicted issues, especially ferrari, if they keep to form they'll still have some low finishes this year, if he can stay consistant now till the end he'll take it.

on the other side of that if ferrari have fixed their engine issues and massa doesn't overdrive like he's prone to at times he's in for a chance, but he's just not as fast as hamilton or as kimi can be so it's still anyone's right now. spa could be a bit of a tipping point if someone retires. good to see 2 interesting points seasons in a row now.

[Iago]

"Wasn’t it some French politician who said that you need to change things in order for them to remain the same?"

Nope, you are thinking of Il Gattopardo:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giuseppe_Tomasi_di_Lampedusa#Works
(off topic, I know). Other than that, thumbs up to your post.

[IDR]

Thanks TIM for this post. You have brought to us a very exciting era of F1.

It’s difficult for me, made comparisons between those drivers and the current ones, we were talking about Ayrton (3 WDC), Prost (4WDC), Piquet (3 WDC) and Mansell (1WDC) and now the fight is between Hamilton (0WDC), Kimi (1 WDC), Massa (0WDC) and Kubica (0WDC). 11 WDC to 1!

I know at that time those drivers had not won all, but they were the big boys of that era, so, it is difficult to make comparisons after knowing all those drivers achieved.

Surely it’s just a question of time, and in 10 years more, the balance will be equalled, who knows.

In any case, after reading your comment (and previous Ed's thread) and talking about overtaking, some of the greatest moments came to my mind. I’ve been surfing through YouTube to, and despite I didn’t remember the track and the year, I’ve finally found it.

Check this link: http://es.youtube.com/watch?v=EdCp9lNJ_18

That was made in one of those “processional” tracks, and without rain!

I sincerely hope 2009 will represent the start of a new era in which overtaking returns back to F1. Less aerodynamics, slicks, and the end of frozen engines, it doesn’t seem so bad. Maybe, the cars will be less “visually sophisticated”, but more effective to give us spectacular races.

What I’m afraid is not going to change so much is about winner Teams, I sincerely hope BMW starts to be another serious title contender as Anon has commented.

In any case, between 1984 and 1994, everything was about McLaren and Williams. (6 WDC/WCC McLaren, 3WDC/4WCC Williams and the last WDC was wone by M Shumacher driving a Benetton) At the end, that was a good F1 decade.

[Didier Is Best (DIB)]

Thanks IDR for highlighting this clip. I'm lucky enough to own a copy of nearly every f1 race from 1978 and I regularly dip into my library watch some of the best races.

Being an avid Nelson Piquet fan, I have to point out that not only was this pass on the outside, on the limit, against the hardest man to overtake in f1 at that time but Senna also enjoyed the advantage of newer tyres. To my mind, this is the best overtaking manoeuvre since I started watching f1 in 1978.

I think it is worth noting, as it is not obviouse to some of the posters on this blog, that driver's mature at different times in their career's. For example, Nelson Piquet was quick and a team leader within a very short space of time, made few mistakes and was regarded by many (..well James Hunt at least) as the best between 1981 and 1985.

Alain Prost, on the other hand must be considered over time to be the greater f1 legend, although in his first few years of f1, although quick his championship challenges were thwarted in part by crucial mistakes at important moments. I cite Zandvoort 1983 as an example when he crashed into Nelson Piquet under pressure.

Both Nelson Piquet and Alain Prost became more circumspect drivers in their later careers.

Nigel Mansell took a long time to show any greatness in f1. He was regularly beaten by Keke Rosberg in 1985 and it was really only after his first win at the end of that year that he started to look like a reat winner. It still took another 6 years before he finally won his world championship. He is one of the few driver's who appear to have got faster the older he got! I'm not a great fan but to be fair please see again what I think is the second best overtaking manoeuvre when, on old tyres he has just been caught and overtaken by Berger in Mexico 1990. Determined (Mansell's middle name I think) he re-passes poor old Berger on the penultimate lap. Not much chance of this happening nowadays.

http://es.youtube.com/watch?v=V2g1yrGputA

enjoy.

[Tomi]

Thanks Ed for taking count all the misfortune Kimi has had during the season.

Your comparison of this season to 1987 also raises one interesting question: what if the internet had existed in 1987 - I wonder how would Nelson, Nigel, Alain and Ayrton have taken all the MASSIVE amount of public critisism and endless rumours of being fired after each bad race they had?

[Derek Smith]

Jago,

Thanks for that.

I was confusing it with 'plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose' which, I've found, a French journalist said. It's nice to have it cleared up.

I've got great hopes for Spa this weekend. Mind you I had great hopes for global warming but I'm sitting in my lounge with my fleece on at the moment.

[Jorge G L]

"Wasn’t it some French politician who said that you need to change things in order for them to remain the same?"

Giuseppe di Lampedusa, in "Il Gattopardo"