The road to the Ashes starts here

Four years ago next week, England began the first Test of their tour of the West Indies by beating the hosts by ten wickets in Jamaica. It was, you may recall, Stephen Harmison's finest hour with seven wickets for 12 runs in the second innings as West Indies were blown apart for 47. Watch and enjoy (in a slightly fuzzy picture):

As well as showing the world that we had a genuinely quick, genuinely scary fast bowler, it also marked the beginning of an astonishing series of results that culminated in the winning of the 2005 Ashes. Anyone who thinks it was simply good fortune (even if there was some of that in 2005) that we beat Australia is forgetting that England were justifiably the second best team in the world going into that series. Having beaten West Indies 3-0 (with a draw in Antigua), they beat the same side at home 4-0 and beat New Zealand 3-0 before going to South Africa for a five-Test series that they won 2-1. Two easy wins against Bangladesh in early summer 2005 set up the Ashes nicely.

Chronologically speaking, England are now at the same stage for the 2009 Ashes and they must start to produce similarly impressive results. There are a maximum of 19 Tests, including the present one, before the first one against Australia. Some look straightforward (six are against New Zealand, two potentially against Zimbabwe) and others (a tour to India, South Africa this summer) are harder. But it is time for the next Ashes combatants to start emerging.

Four years ago, the England squad in the Caribbean featured ten of the eventual 12 who would play in the Ashes, the missing elements being Ian Bell and Kevin Pietersen. Yet the two best batsmen against West Indies did not last the course: Graham Thorpe, who averaged 91 and was dropped for Pietersen in 2005, and Mark Butcher, who averaged 59. There is still time to rise or fall in the selectors' estimation. Andrew Strauss toured but did not play in the Tests. He would make his mark the next summer, forcing Nasser Hussain into retirement. Geraint Jones displaced Chris Read in the West Indies and showed that he was a much better batsman; Andrew Flintoff had a brilliant all-round series; Simon Jones and Matthew Hoggard both bowled well; Ashley Giles played poorly that winter but had a really good summer in 2004 to make his case.

So who is looking good for the next Ashes? Well, by my reckoning these are the contenders:

Certainties: Alastair Cook, Kevin Pietersen

Probables: Michael Vaughan, Ian Bell, Monty Panesar

Possibles: Ryan Sidebottom, Tim Ambrose, Stuart Broad, Owais Shah

Must do something special to justify place: Harmison, Hoggard, Paul Collingwood, Strauss, James Anderson, Flintoff, Phil Mustard, Matt Prior

Notice that four of the last group are playing in Hamilton. At some point England need to decide if they are going to be in the frame for 2009. If not, perhaps it is time to start blooding some new names. Players such as Graham Onions, Adil Rashid and Ed Joyce all performed well on the England Lions tour and may be worth a look. What do you think?

Comments

[Infamous Aussies]

It is still along way to the Ashes. For both Australia and England. England is too focussed on beating Australia, whereas, Australia is focussed on being the best.
Haven't England learnt yet after the humiliating 5-0 Ashes whitewash in 2006/07??
Infuse Cricket at every level, not just the National Level. Learn from what Australia are doing and how they are doing it. Stop importing players to play in the county cricket. Use England's own!
Woe betide English Cricket!!

[Allan Schoenherr]

I think you should add Bell to the list of certainties. He is by far Englands most classical batsman although he does appear to need some mental strengthening. I would put his name down before KP. Also Sidebottom has bowled consistantly since coming in so he should be at least a probable. After that its all a bit hazy.

I would advocate Joyce, Denly, Carberry, definitely Onions and even Rashid to be in with a shout after the Lions tour. And maybe Rob Key should be given another chance?

This is all talk for the summer though, right now they have to make do with the men they have down there. And putting that video of Harmy up is just rubbing salt in the wound. How about a clip of his opening Ashes over at Brisbane, more likely we will see that at the Basin.

[Patrick Kidd]

Thanks for your swift response Bill. Yes, very few players putting their hands up for the Ashes in Hamilton and there may well be some hefty changes. You are right, the task at hand is to win the second Test and then think about the future.

That said, in my original post I did say that there were only two certainties in the present team for the 2009 Ashes: Cook and Pietersen. I think the same holds true now. In 2004, I think we already had an idea of seven certainties for the Ashes (Vaughan, Trescothick, Harmison, Flintoff, Hoggard, Giles - in absence of anyone else - and S Jones) with Strauss and G Jones making their case in the summer of 2004.

[Dame Edna]

As reported in another article in The Times:-

“I feel sorry for the Brits; they don’t merely enjoy misery, they get off on it.”

Never was a truer word said.

Is this your life doctrine Patrick?

[Luke]

Patrick

Siddebottom would be a certainty now.

KP may only be a probable.

Panesar might be only a must do something special to justify place.

Probably the greatest captain of all time?? Mr "full of himself" Vaughan is also in that category as well.

But don't worry, in true English style they will only regergatate the same NAFF players over and over again.

Is there any thing or anyone else on the horizon?

Or do we just hope Freddie can keep off his ankle for long enough?

[Bill]

Okay thanks for the feedback Patrick. Bur I think from your subsequent Blogs you have already realised the point I was making.

The likelihood, on the peformance against New Zealand, is there may be up to eleven changes to the English team by the time of the 2009 Ashes series.

But Harmy might rip through the Kiwis if he gets over 115mph in the second test and KP might go one a rampage and not pad up to balls on the stumps.

[Patrick Kidd]

Another thing to consider, Bill, is that this post was written before the first Test in New Zealand started and perhaps you linked to it off the cricket page thinking it had just been written. I agree that now, after a humiliating defeat, would have been an odd time to run something like this. But a week ago, before a winter tour that could define how the future looks, was quite valid, I feel.

[Patrick Kidd]

Bill, don't be a knob. If you want to make a criticism, at least go into a bit of detail. If you disagree with the idea of looking at the Ashes in a year and a half when we can't even beat New Zealand, that would be valid, although I would disagree with you.

If you think drawing comparisons between now and the equivalent period four years is a waste of pixels, say it. Personally, I think it is interesting to see the main protagonists for the 2005 Ashes being drawn together during the winter of 2004 - and thought that a comparison with what state of readiness we are in now would be a useful exercise. By all means disagree, but do more than just say it is silly.

Some might say that The Sun lacks any long-term focus; others like you would say that we should stick to the job at hand. But do at least share the detail of what annoys you about this post, otherwise it is just a waste of your finger muscles.

[Bill]

Possibly the silliest blog ever written Patrick.

The Times is really going down hill.

England and it's "shock jock" journalists like you and Simon Barnes should concerntrate on the New Zealand tour and nothing else.

They wouldn't even write this stuff in The Sun.

[Klaus Beaucamp]

Captain Cook really knew what he was doing when he stole Australia from the Dutch.

I bet you wish you had left the Dutch to discover New Holland now.

Dutch explorer Willem van Colster got absolutely no credit for all his work and you stole the naming rights to the great country.

The least New Holland can do as revenge is come out and bash you over the head for 20 years playing cricket.

[Dennis Cometti]

The best English team is:-

1 Johnny Foreigner
2 Johnny Foreigner
3 Johnny Foreigner
4 Johnny Foreigner
5 Johnny Foreigner
6 Johnny Foreigner
7 Johnny Foreigner
8 Johnny Foreigner
9 Johnny Foreigner
10 Johnny Foreigner
11 Johnny Foreigner

What does it mean to be English these days? Sorry Daze? Henry the 8th would turn in his grave. Joined by W G Grace.

[Dennis Cometti]

Do you think Cameron Wood can make the difference in the ruck this year for Collingwood?

The loss of Nathan Buckley and James Clement will be extreme for the team who has more money but who has only won one premiership in 50 years.

Collingwood is behind the 8 ball.

[Scotty Burns]

Go Pies!

[Sigmund Fraud]

Bring back Geoff Borecott.

He exemplifies the spirit of English cricket.

For insomniacs only!

[Eddie Maguire]

GOOD OLD COLLINGWOOD FOREVER THEY KNOW HOW TO PLAY THE GAME,

SIDE BY SIDE THEY STICK TOGETHER TO UPHOLD THE MAGPIES NAME,

*Corr Blimey*

SEE THE BARRACKERS A SHOUTING,

AS ALL BARRACKERS SHOULD,

FOR THE PREMIERSHIPS A CAKE WALK,

FOR THE GOOD OLD COLLINGWOOD

[Robert's mother]

Whatever happened to Robert Key?

He was boss and could sink at least 9 pints every night before a game.

[Ricky]

New Zealand seem a bit tough for you at the moment.

My team:
Some fat bloke
Some stupid bloke
Some South Afrcian bloke
Some Other South Afrcan bloke
Some Northern Bloke
Some Australian Wicket Keeper
Some All Rounder who keeps breaking down
Some fast bowler who is very lazy
Some Northern Fast Bowler who can't swing the ball
Some bloke with a funny hair cut
Some Dodgy Indian bloke who can't spin the ball

Really it doesn't matter who you pick.

Wink.

[Tim Horan]

Test no. 1
England in Australia Test Series - 1st Test
Australia v England 1876/77 season

Played at Melbourne Cricket Ground on 15,16,17,19 March 1877 (timeless match)

Result Australia won by 45 runs

Australia 1st innings R M 4s 6s
C Bannerman retired hurt 165 285 18 0
NFD Thomson b Hill 1 0 0
TP Horan c Hill b Shaw 12 0
DW Gregory run out 1 0 0
BB Cooper b Southerton 15 0
WE Midwinter c Ulyett b Southerton 5 0
EJ Gregory c Greenwood b Lillywhite 0 0 0
JM Blackham b Southerton 17 0
TW Garrett not out 18 0
TK Kendall c Southerton b Shaw 3 0 0
JR Hodges b Shaw 0 0 0
Extras (b 4, lb 2, w 2) 8

Total (all out; 169.3 overs) 245 (2.16 runs per 6 balls)

Fall of wickets1-2 (Thomson), 2-40 (Horan), 3-41 (DW Gregory), 4-118 (Cooper), 5-142 (Midwinter), 6-143 (EJ Gregory), 7-197 (Blackham), 7-240* (Bannerman, retired not out), 8-243 (Kendall), 9-245 (Hodges)

Bowling O M R W Econ
A Shaw 55.3 34 51 3 1.37
A Hill 23 10 42 1 2.73
G Ulyett 25 12 36 0 2.16
J Southerton 37 17 61 3 2.47
T Armitage 3 0 15 0 7.50 (2w)
James Lillywhite jnr 14 5 19 1 2.03
T Emmett 12 7 13 0 1.62

England 1st innings R M B 4s 6s SR
H Jupp lbw b Garrett 63 191 241 2 0 26.14
J Selby c Cooper b Hodges 7 18 18 1 0 38.88
HRJ Charlwood c Blackham b Midwinter 36 59 62 2 0 58.06
G Ulyett lbw b Thomson 10 14 21 2 0 47.61
A Greenwood c EJ Gregory b Midwinter 1 22 26 0 0 3.84
T Armitage c Blackham b Midwinter 9 24 31 1 0 29.03
A Shaw b Midwinter 10 22 28 0 0 35.71
T Emmett b Midwinter 8 25 32 0 0 25.00
A Hill not out 35 41 47 3 0 74.46
James Lillywhite jnr c & b Kendall 10 14 15 1 0 66.66
J Southerton c Cooper b Garrett 6 21 21 0 0 28.57
Extras (lb 1) 1

Total (all out; 136.1 overs) 196 (2.15 runs per 6 balls)

Fall of wickets1-23 (Selby), 2-79 (Charlwood), 3-98 (Ulyett), 4-109 (Greenwood), 5-121 (Armitage), 6-135 (Shaw), 7-145 (Jupp), 8-145 (Emmett), 9-168 (Lillywhite), 10-196 (Southerton)

Bowling O M R W Econ
JR Hodges 9 0 27 1 4.50
TW Garrett 18.1 10 22 2 1.80
TK Kendall 38 16 54 1 2.13
WE Midwinter 54 23 78 5 2.16
NFD Thomson 17 10 14 1 1.23

Australia 2nd innings R M B 4s 6s SR
C Bannerman b Ulyett 4 8 10 1 0 40.00
NFD Thomson c Emmett b Shaw 7 26 26 0 0 26.92
TP Horan c Selby b Hill 20 28 32 2 0 62.50
TW Garrett c Emmett b Shaw 0 7 8 0 0 0.00
BB Cooper b Shaw 3 14 16 0 0 18.75
WE Midwinter c Southerton b Ulyett 17 68 73 1 0 23.28
EJ Gregory c Emmett b Ulyett 11 26 31 1 0 35.48
JM Blackham lbw b Shaw 6 16 20 0 0 30.00
DW Gregory b Shaw 3 14 15 0 0 20.00
TK Kendall not out 17 22 22 3 0 77.27
JR Hodges b Lillywhite 8 18 18 1 0 44.44
Extras (b 5, lb 3) 8

Total (all out; 68 overs) 104 (2.29 runs per 6 balls)

Fall of wickets1-7 (Bannerman), 2-27 (Thomson), 3-31 (Garrett), 4-31 (Horan), 5-35 (Cooper), 6-58 (EJ Gregory), 7-71 (Blackham), 8-75 (Midwinter), 9-75 (DW Gregory), 10-104 (Hodges)

Bowling O M R W Econ
A Shaw 34 16 38 5 1.67
G Ulyett 19 7 39 3 3.07
A Hill 14 6 18 1 1.92
James Lillywhite jnr 1 0 1 1 1.50

England 2nd innings (target: 154 runs) R M B 4s 6s SR
A Hill c Thomson b Kendall 0 1 2 0 0 0.00
A Greenwood c Midwinter b Kendall 5 5 5 0 0 100.00
H Jupp lbw b Midwinter 4 18 17 0 0 23.52
HRJ Charlwood b Kendall 13 16 17 1 0 76.47
J Selby c Horan b Hodges 38 81 81 4 0 46.91
G Ulyett b Kendall 24 47 62 1 0 38.70
A Shaw st Blackham b Kendall 2 5 9 0 0 22.22
T Armitage c Blackham b Kendall 3 31 32 0 0 9.37
T Emmett b Kendall 9 28 27 0 0 33.33
James Lillywhite jnr b Hodges 4 4 6 0 0 66.66
J Southerton not out 1 12 7 0 0 14.28
Extras (b 4, lb 1) 5

Total (all out; 66.1 overs) 108 (2.44 runs per 6 balls)

Fall of wickets1-0 (Hill), 2-7 (Greenwood), 3-20 (Jupp), 4-22 (Charlwood), 5-62 (Ulyett), 6-68 (Shaw), 7-92 (Selby), 8-93 (Armitage), 9-100 (Lillywhite), 10-108 (Emmett)

Bowling O M R W Econ
TK Kendall 33.1 12 55 7 2.48
WE Midwinter 19 7 23 1 1.81
DW Gregory 5 1 9 0 2.70
TW Garrett 2 0 9 0 6.75
JR Hodges 7 5 7 2 1.50

And you still haven't recovered.

[Liz Queenie]

Why not bring back W G, you silly nation of plodders.

[Gerry]

A sign of the VERY SAD state of English cricket is that all anyone cares about is The Ashes!!

Australia are only thinking about their next series not about 19 months time.

England as a cricketing power is way down the list because cricket in england is DEAD if all that gets you tickled is The ASHES!

The ASHES is so last century.

It is dead along with English cricket.

World Cricket has moved on in leaps and bounds since then.

Unfortunately, English Cricket, English Cricket commentators and the English publish haven't.

Go back to your soccer game with it's holigan ways and stupid chanting, you second rate lager louts and leave Cricket to those Countries who really love it.

[James McQuaid]

Agree, harsh on Colly and Hoggy, I'd say Sidebottom is a probable, maybe even Broad if he carries on the way he has over the last few months. I think Harmison is really on his last chance - if he doesn't get one really good performance in on this tour, it's time to go for an extended spell in Durham, maybe indefinitely.

I'd go with Tom's team, but hoping that Flintoff will get back and take Shah's place (as long as it's on merit)... also think Monty will hang on ahead of Rashid, even though I can't wait for him to come through and see what he can do.

[Tim]

My team:
Cook
Vaughan
Bell
KP
Shah
Collingwood
Ambrose
Broad
Tremlett
Sidebottom
Panesar

Strongest possible side for 2009 would be Ramps in for either Shah or Colly, and batting at three, but that isn't going to happen.

And Patrick - any chance you could do me the favour of linking to my blog? Cheers.

[Rob]

Harsh on Colly & Hoggy. My team would be:

1. Cook
2. Vaughan
3. Bell
4. Pietersen
5. Collingwood
6. Flintoff
7. Ambrose
8. Broad
9. Sidebottom
10. Hoggard
11. Panesar

There is a case for including Rashid, to add some spice. An out and out quick would also be useful. The tail can wag quite nicely.

[Patrick Kidd]

Yes, probably was harsh on Colly. But in the 26 innings he has had since that double hundred, he has passed 50 only five times, twice going on to make a hundred. He will be 33 by the time the Ashes start. Could do with a big score soon (tomorrow would be nice).

Your team looks very strong batting-wise, Tom. Possibly the strongest we would have ever had. If Rashid develops the way we all hope, he could be good enough to bat in the top 6 and Broad, Tremlett and Sidebottom would all make a decent No 8.

ps: Colly was first Englishman to make a 100 in an Ashes match for just under ten years. Hussain did it in 1997 and before him it was Gower in 1985.

[Tom]

Definately harsh on Colly. The only English batsmen to get a double-ton against the aussies for how long?

Here's my XI for the first ashes test of 2009:

Vaughan (c)
Cook
Bell
Pietersen
Collingwood
Shah
Mustard
Rashid
Broad
Tremlett
Sidebottom

That's a strong batting side, and some potentially great bowlers. Adil R will be the spin bowling all-rounder we've been dreaming of for ages.

[Ben Grey]

A bit harsh on Collingwood and Hoggard. Hoggard has been England's most consistent bowler in recent times, even if he is clearly rusty at the moment. His strike rate is world class, despite his stereotype as a workhorse. Collingwood's average is better than Bell's (almost 43), and he has not played against Bangladesh. He is the most reliable figure in Englands' middle order, and the 1 day captaincy seems to be improving his batting (fastest English 50?). Yet even when he succeeds he is damned with faint praise and consistently overlooked.