Mick Smith - Times Online - WBLG

Nimrod: Why Attack the Coroner?

The much lauded review by Charles Haddon-Cave QC was so condemnatory of the Ministry of Defence that it is counter-intuitive to suggest any element of failure, but there was a very strange and self-contradictory attack on the work of the coroner Andrew Walker, whose verdict in May last year not only confirmed the failings in the aircraft first pointed out in the Sunday Times and in this blog, but also produced a wealth of valuable new information, much of which is reproduced in Haddon-Cave's report. The attack on the coroner that Haddon-Cave launched was therefore highly suspicious, as Jimmy Jones, a former RAF engineering officer who worked on the first trials of the Nimrod MR2 at Boscombe Down, and advised Haddon-Cave, explains here:

The recent publication of Haddon-Cave’s report into the loss of a Nimrod over Afghanistan in 2006 has brought much justified acclaim for its condemnation of Government cost-cutting, bad management and the naming of those responsible. However, for me, his attack on the Coroner was scathing and unjustified, and unbecoming of a prominent QC

Haddon-Cave said in his attack:

'The Coroner’s Inquest produced little factual evidence of value to the Review. The Coroner’s finding as to the likely source of fuel did not accord with the realistic probabilities, or the evidence before him, and his Rule 43 recommendation (that the Nimrod fleet should be grounded pending certain repairs) was based on his misunderstanding of the meaning of As Low as Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). The Coroner’s widely-publicised remark that the MOD had a “cavalier approach to safety” was unjustified.'

To answer these points in turn:

1) The Inquest produced factual evidence regarding: (a) the failings of the Integrated Project Team (IPT) managing the Nimrod programme led by Air Commodore George Baber, (b) the 2005 BAE Systems report declaring hot air ducting “life expired”, (c) the importance of correct alignment for fuel couplings, (d) a second duct failure, and (e) the Tornado incident in 2002. All of these issues were first raised by the Coroner. None of them had been mentioned before, but they feature in Haddon-Cave’s report and, in the case of the first two, were key parts of the reason for Haddon-Cave’s criticisms of Baber and BAE Systems.

2) Haddon-Cave attributes to the Coroner the suggestion that fuel came “from a leak to the fuel feed system to engines No3 and No 4”. He uses this as part of his dismissal of the Coroner’s judgments, stating that this “did not accord with the realistic probabilities”. In fact the Coroner did not say this at all. The reference mentioned in Haddon-Cave's report relates to a statement made by the Coroner as to why that particular fuel source could NOT have occurred. If Haddon-Cave can get this so wrong, it poses worrying questions as to why, and what other issues he gets wrong.

The main problem appears to be his dependence on two of the Board of Inquiry members as official advisers. They continue to insist – against all the evidence - that the most likely source for the fuel was a “blow-off” during refuelling, a conclusion based on flawed and selective information. They choose to gloss over a Nimrod incident over Afghanistan in 2007, and fail to mention an in-flight incident report in December 2006 of an accumulation of fuel in bomb bay, which states that the blow-off outlet was checked on landing and no fuel found. The Coroner listened to evidence from several witnesses, all of whom reported the idea of the blow-off as “most unlikely”, or “never seen”.

3) Haddon-Cave criticised the Coroner for calling for the aircraft to be grounded because they were unsafe. The Coroners’ rules, and specifically Rule 43, provide them with the power to make reports to a person or organisation where they believe that action should be taken to prevent future deaths. The IPT leader told the Coroner that hot air ducts, condemned in 2005, posed no real threat, because they were “tolerably safe but not ALARP” [a term which defines the level of risk as being: as low as reasonably practicable]. The Coroner quite rightly thought otherwise and is in fact, paradoxically backed up by Haddon-Cave himself, who correctly states that “There is no such thing as ‘tolerably safe but not ALARP”. So if a system is not “tolerably safe” is must be “intolerable” and a threat to life. The fact that the Nimrod fleet was “grounded” earlier this year for the duct replacement programme vindicates the Coroner.

4) Haddon-Cave also attacked the Coroner’s allegation that the MoD had a “Cavalier Approach” to airworthiness and safety. The term cavalier in this sense is defined as “casual or indifferent toward matters of some importance”. The multiple evidence of such behaviour in Haddon-Cave’s own report is more than sufficient justification for the Coroner’s ruling.

So why did Haddon-Cave mount this attack on the Coroner? There are two possibilities, (a) he was guided by Board of Inquiry members (Haddon-Cave’s advisers) who wanted their views reinstated, and/or (b) the MoD, who funded the review and provided those advisers, wanted the Coroner discredited because he had always been a “thorn in their side”. Given the scale of his attack on the MoD, it is not credible that he would have consciously allowed himself to do the MoD’s bidding, but I do believe that it was inevitable, and of some concern, that his dependence on an number of serving RAF officers, and two Board of Inquiry members in particular, may have skewed what was an otherwise excellent review.

My advice to Haddon-Cave is, beware, lest your own otherwise excellent report be discredited by this unjustified attack on the Coroner.

Dilly Knox: The Bletchley Park Expert on Enigma Ciphers

This is a guest post from Mavis Batey, a former Bletchley Park codebreaker, who has just written a fascinating new book on her former boss Dilly Knox, who did the bulk of the British work on Enigma (and no that wasn't Alan Turing, that's a myth. He did a lot of important work but on Enigma, Dilly was the master).

 

Normally an obituary in The Times would provide a framework for a biography of an important person in any given field, but that simply wasn’t true of the one written for my boss at the British wartime codebreaking base at Bletchley Park. This was the wonderfully eccentric but outstandingly brilliant Alfred Dillwyn Knox, known to his many friends and admirers simply as ‘Dilly’.

George Steiner, the American writer and philosopher, has described the codebreaking achievements that took place at Bletchley Park as ‘the single greatest achievement of Britain during 1939-1945, perhaps during the 20th century as a whole’. If that is true, then Dilly’s own achievements must be ranked among the greatest in their own right.

Dilly’s work on the various Enigma ciphers was certainly among the most important and significant carried out at Bletchley. Enigma was not one single cipher machine, as is often suggested, but a family of many different ciphers and it was Dilly and his research section, of which I was a proud member, who were asked to find a way into each new cipher as it appeared.

The failure of his obituary in The Times to do him justice when he died in early 1943 was caused by the absolute secrecy surrounding the work on Enigma. The obituary mentioned that his father was a former Bishop of Manchester; that his brother was Monsignor Ronald Knox, a famous Catholic theologian; and that another brother, ‘Evoe’, was editor of Punch. It also mentioned his work as a Classicist reconstructing the mimes of the Greek poet and playwright Herodas.

What it could not mention was that he was one of the leading members of Room 40, the Admiralty’s celebrated codebreaking section during the First World War, broke Bolshevik ciphers during the 1920s and 30s, and Enigma ciphers during the Spanish Civil War and Second World War. What it would certainly not have been possible to mention, even without the understandable secrecy, was that Dilly’s greatest triumph had not even taken place when the obituary was written.

Shortly before he died, in great pain from the cancer, Dilly broke the Enigma cipher used by the German secret service, the Abwehr. It was this that allowed MI5 and MI6 to manipulate the intelligence the Germans were receiving through the Double Cross System and fool them into leaving too few troops in Normandy to counter the allied landings.

Now that many more previously secret records have been released into the archives, I have at last had the chance to give my old boss the credit he deserves. I felt a strong sense of déjà vu in seeing once more the same secret enemy messages that we handled over sixty years ago, but then the secrecy was such that even I was unaware of the effect Dilly’s work had on the allied success in the war. I was determined in writing this book to ensure that what Dilly did was never forgotten.

Dilly: The Man Who Broke Enigmas, by Mavis Batey, is published by Dialogue, price £19.99

Letter from the Left Coast: The Fat Lady Finally Gets Off Her Backside

Ian Bowater, this blog's very own LA Correspondent, with some final thoughts on the presidential race
So here it is – the last ever Letter From The Left Coast. It’s been over a month since the last one but quite frankly nothing much has happened. Oh… there was some Black Guy who got made President of the United States. I never saw that one coming. The interregnum created a power vacuum, or rather a news hole, which any number of hopefuls, has-beens, nonentities, also rans, losers and the occasional Great White Hope tried to fill. Quite frankly, Bernie Madoff’s multi-billion dollar fraud wasn’t going to do it. Once we learned that Zsa Zsa Gabor had lost eight million there were no more tears left to shed.

Whistleblower Reveals Forces Computer Virus Linked to Russia

The Ministry of Defence and a large number of RAF bases and Royal Navy ships have been hit by a computer "worm virus" that is alleged to have been sent to a Russian internet server. The allegations have been made to Conservative MP Mark Pritchard by a whistlebower inside the MoD who is concerned over its failure to take cyber security seriously. Pritchard said the official “told me he could not say whether there was any evidence of active Russian involvement but that email traffic from some RAF stations was sent to a Russian internet server.”

Gaza Attacks and Olmert's Threat to the Innocents Damage Israel

There is no doubt that Hamas has provoked Israel with rocket attacks from Gaza onto Israeli territory, but the disproportionate response unleashed yesterday will do Israel nothing but harm. Commentators have suggested that retaliation would be difficult because there is an election going on in Israel, but the unavoidable conclusion is that the election, and the tightness of the race between the candidate of the Kadima party Tzipi Livni, and the Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu, is a key factor in the decision to take such dire action. Both candidates have promised to act tough and the ironically named Operation Solid Lead means Livni is now able to claim that she can be as tough as Netanyahu.

Nigel Antony Richard Backhouse MVO - 1956-2008. A Great Loss.

I went to the funeral of a man I was proud to call a friend today. The mourners packed into the pretty church of St Giles, Ashtead, near Leatherhead, bore testament to the ease with which Nigel Backhouse made friends. There were many people there today who had lost a very good friend and will have been helped in their loss by a beautiful service. I am sure their hearts went out, as mine did, to his young family. How to explain the death of someone so young? One of the readings came from The Prophet by the Lebanese poet and philosopher Kahlil Gibran.

    On Death
    By Kahlil Gibran

You would know the secret of death.
But how shall you find it unless you seek it in the heart of life?
The owl whose night-bound eyes are blind unto the day cannot unveil the mystery of light.
If you would indeed behold the spirit of death, open your heart wide unto the body of life.
For life and death are one, even as the river and the sea are one.

In the depth of your hopes and desires lies your silent knowledge of the beyond;
And like seeds dreaming beneath the snow your heart dreams of spring.
Trust the dreams, for in them is hidden the gate to eternity.
Your fear of death is but the trembling of the shepherd when he stands before the king whose hand is to be laid upon him in honour.
Is the shepherd not joyful beneath his trembling, that he shall wear the mark of the king?
Yet is he not more mindful of his trembling?

For what is it to die but to stand naked in the wind and to melt into the sun?
And what is it to cease breathing, but to free the breath from its restless tides, that it may rise and
expand and seek God unencumbered?

Only when you drink from the river of silence shall you indeed sing.
And when you have reached the mountain top, then you shall begin to climb.
And when the earth shall claim your limbs, then shall you truly dance.

Nigel Backhouse, a good friend to many, a man who will truly be sorely missed.

Letter from the Left Coast: The Cabinet, the Legacy and the Law

Ian Bowater with a Christmas Special from the Left Coast

Here’s change you’re gonna have to put up with… Barack Obama ran on the left to beat Hillary in the Primary. At the general election conventional wisdom dictates that he would move to the centre to get elected. When in office he will naturally drift back to the left. The Republicans forced change on him by playing the Pinko, Commie, Socialist card. Instead of running to the middle, he stayed left because it worked for him and none of the calumnies heaped on him by the McCain campaign worked for them. Now in the transition we are learning what sort politician he will be. He is governing from the right, appeasing some pretty nasty folks while he builds his big tent. Instead of ringing the change bell there’s a load of old Clinton clangers in his first Cabinet.

A Christmas Message from a Soldier's Mum

Here's Mandy, our soldier's mum, with her annual Christmas message

ON THE 1ST DAY OF CHRISTMAS...  A fleet of military helicopters buzz the skies in the East. Gordon Santa then. On the front line. Bearing gifts? This Christmas, named parcels only are being accepted by The British Forces Post Office with the lamenting MOD citing the need to use military helicopters for operational requirements only. But it’s ok. Gordon is aware that the charity UK4U will supply all our brave soldiers with parcels. How the elves distribute them in the Sandy Land is completely up to them.

Pakistani General Murdered to Stop Him Naming Generals Who Shied Off Fighting the Taliban

General Amir Faisal Alavi, former Pakistani special forces commander, with General Bryan 'Doug' Brown, who was then head of US Special Operations Command

There is a remarkable story in today’s Sunday Times about how a former Pakistan special forces chief was murdered after alleging that senior generals were paying off Taliban leaders and refusing to fight the war on terror. Maj-Gen Amir Faisal Alavi, former head of the Special Services Group, the Pakistani equivalent of the SAS, was particularly angry about a deal with Baitullah Mahsud, suspected of being the mastermind behind the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Alavi had repeatedly fought inside the Pakistan Army for change and his men had led the battle against the militants bravely but there were a small number of generals who were not only trying to prevent the army taking on the militants properly but in some cases were backing them.

Soldiers Return from Afghanistan to Fine Welcome from the Prince or a Good Beating from the Police

Mandy our soldier's mum, seen here with son Ross, reports from a reception this week for the paras and their relatives on their return to Colchester after a tour of duty in Afghanistan.

Emotions were high and there were tears. Of course. None more so than when Lance Corporal Tom Neathway, who lost both legs and an arm in an explosion at Kajaki, stood up from his wheel chair and walked across the parade ground. It was right and fitting the members of the Parachute Regiment were honoured for their service in Afghanistan. It was also right and proper that Prince Charles held a private audience afterwards for the families of the injured and for those that died.

British Forces Chief: "Why Our Allies Messed It Up For Us in Iraq"

Every Christmas it is traditional for the Chief of Defence Staff to address the members of the Royal United Services Institute. Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup did so this evening, and since the media reports seem likely to focus on what he said about Afghanistan and Mumbai, it is worth separating off the Iraq section which is a spirited defence of British operations in southern Iraq, with a sideswipe at our allies who have been so quick to criticise the British efforts. It is well worth a read:

Thank you, chairman, and good afternoon everyone.  It’s a great pleasure to have the chance once again to speak here at RUSI; to be able to share some reflections with you as the year draws to an end, and 2008 has been eventful in so many ways. Since I spoke to you last year, 47 of our people have lost their lives on operations, and many more have been wounded, some very seriously.  2008 has seen some hard fighting, some significant military successes, and the continued development of some significant obstacles to success that will make 2009 particularly challenging. One of the biggest steps forward came early in the year, in Iraq.  Although operation charge of the knights got off to an inauspicious start, its eventual success and subsequent developments have transformed the situation in Basra.  But the operation has also attracted a degree of controversy, particularly with regard to the British role.   

The Inaugural Frank Foley Lecture, 28 November 2008

Ian Austin and Linda Waltho, the two MPs whose West Midlands constituencies cover the area where Frank Foley lived until his death in 1958, have set up the annual Frank Foley lecture. If you don't know who Frank Foley was, then you should and you will if you read this post. This is the Inaugural Frank Foley Lecture, which I gave at Stourbridge last Friday.

ON Friday June 19th, 1959, a small group of people gathered on the edge of a windswept forest near Kibbutz Harel, just outside Jerusalem. A grove of trees had been planted there to commemorate a remarkable Englishman. Each of the more than 2,000 pines had been paid for by someone he saved from Hitler's concentration camps. Contributions for more trees were coming in every day. The speakers at the ceremony included some of the most eminent members of the Jewish community in pre-war Berlin. Benno Cohn, chairman of the Zionist Organisation of Germany, reminded those present that they had gathered to pay tribute to a British official who had saved tens of thousands of Jews from the Holocaust. "He was the Pimpernel of the Jews," Cohn said. "Day and night he was at the disposal of those who sought help. In those dark years, he restored to many of us our faith in humanity." A memorial stone place in front of the grave read simply: "Major Francis Edward Foley, England, Memorial Grove."

Letter from the Left Coast: So Will Obama Be The Real Deal Or Not?

Ian Bowater hopes for a new New Deal from Barack.

Thursday was Thanksgiving. All across West L.A. thousands of newly emboldened, well meaning Liberals held hands around a family table laden with an unlikely mélange of savoury and sweet dishes along with the obligatory vegan alternatives for the exceptionally uppity. Where do they find the strength on tofu and pulses? After apologizing to the Native Americans – the original hosts of this Turkey fest – they gave thanks for Barack Obama. The President-Elect has been beatified, canonized, lionized and deified on an upward spiral of hyperbole since the day he won the election. He has simultaneously restored America’s faith in itself and returned it to Number One in the world. That’s the word on this one. America is Barack – America is Back!

It Wasn't Like That in My Day! The Renewed Relevance of the Remembrance Commemoration

As the number of British troops killed in Iraq and Afghanistan hits the 300 mark, Chuck Unsworth, our self-confessed 'Old Fogey' reflects on the continued willingness to celebrate a day that stemmed initially from the Armistice at the end of the First World War but yet continues to have a special importance.

This week Remembrance Day Parades have taken in towns and villages throughout Britain, and they have been held in many other countries, too.  As usual I paraded with the other old fogies at our local war memorial, being pleased to see large numbers of young people taking part and with a decent sized crowd watching.  This year it was rendered particularly poignant as an old military friend has very recently died.  He was John Leslie (Lofty) Collyer – Lofty by name and by stature - a man who had entered the Army as a boy soldier, working his way up through the ranks to Regimental Sergeant Major and thence onwards as a Commissioned Officer.  I’ve known him for well over forty years.  A Sapper through and through, with all of those old-fashioned qualities of a fine and honourable soldier, he was known and respected by thousands.  He’ll be missed by his large family and by the very many in the Royal Engineers Association, of which he was a stalwart.

How Many More Fallen Soldiers Will We Celebrate?

Her son might be back from Afghanistan but Mandy is still incensed at the way in which politicians put their own "rights" above those do the dead.

Seems, while Ross has been away on holiday, there’s been a bit of a turf war going on. No! Not in Glenrothes, where the Labour Party celebrated a tactical success, putting the Scottish National Party to bed by bailing out Halifax/Bank of Scotland and The Royal Bank of Scotland. Down in Dorset, where a mayor is getting hot under the collar over a perfectly respectable attempt to honour our dead.

Afghanistan - Are We Heading for Another Inglorious Failure?

Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, the Chief of the Defence Staff, has spoken out against sending more troops to Afghanistan. I’m reminded of CJ, a character in the soon-to-be-revived Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin. CJ is Perrin’s boss at Sunshine Desserts, an organisation inhabited by yes men. He begins every homily with the words: “I didn’t get where I am today by… ” Stirrup didn’t get where he is today – outlasting all his subordinates with an apparently endless term as the forces’ top man - by telling politicians, who are desperate to cut defence costs, things they don’t want to hear.

Letter from the Left Coast: Hey World - Meet the New Boss

Ian Bowater, with a post-Obama reflection on the day that Americans welcomed in a new president, although how sincere they all were is a matter for debate.

I admit to having a nostalgic fondness for elections. It probably goes back to the fifties when, as a nine year old, I helped my dad leaflet the Hillsborough ward in Sheffield for Alf Meade, our local councillor. Alf was no Barack Obama but then I didn’t need to be inspired. I was always a tribal politician who followed my dad’s lead and the family legacy. I love Election Day itself even more, despite not having had much experience of working on a winning campaign in my adult years. So, I was looking forward to last Tuesday with some trepidation. I’d actively participated in the Obama Campaign if only for research purposes. I might be the common loser factor. I hadn’t bothered with the local McCain headquarters because I’d been told there was no one was home.

Letter from the Left Coast: Vote for Obama, says Ian the Leftie!

Our man in LA Ian Bowater does his bit for the Obama campaign Los Angeles-style - by the infinity pool

Regardless of whether Barack Obama gets an historic victory on Tuesday and the much-vaunted new era begins, the American Century ended last Friday with the death of Studs Terkel. Journalist, activist, oral historian, Studs chronicled the twentieth century from the perspective of the working man. Sadly, he lived long enough to see the American Worker parodied and disparaged in the shape of Joe the Plumber, John McCain’s new-found friend from the campaign trail. Joe is everywhere except when he forgets to turn up. Offering opinions on subjects as diverse as the tax plan and Israel, Joe has a scared story for every occasion. No matter that he has no experience, not even of campaign strategy meetings. Joe says what he wants and the further off the reservation he gets the more Mr. Maverick loves him.

Tracking Russian Ships More Vital than Providing Intelligence for British Troops Fighting Taliban

The Russian Nuclear-Powered Cruiser Peter the Great on its way to the Caribbean for naval exercises in US backyard

Problems with the fuel system on the Nimrod MR2 aircraft continue despite the decision to suspend air-to-air refuelling. Britain was forced to pull its Nimrod spy planes off operations in Afghanistan a few weeks ago and has not been able to replace them yet. The reason the two aircraft had to be pulled out differs depending on who you talk to but it is clear that there were continuing problems. The reason they were not replaced was that the other serviceable Nimrods were required for a very old-fashioned Nimrod job, tracking the Russian Navy!

Letter from the Left Coast: Now Come the Really Dirty Tricks!

The blog returns from holiday with Ian Bowater our leftie in LA still adamant that having run one of the worst campaigns in political history McCain could still find ways to cheat a victory

The now famous McCain grab-ass photo from the final presidential debate was probably best rendered by “Berliner Zeitung”. It was almost exquisite in its symbolic detail. The background was a Prussian blue. In Europe we always associate blue with conservatism whereas it is the colour of the Democrats in America. Red states are Republican as in red meat and redneck. Barack Obama is left of the frame with his head slightly bowed, lips tight looking dignified. He could be an artist’s study for an eventual slavery memorial. McCain takes centre frame. He is a slavering homunculus like the grasping capitalist from a scathing Otto Dix print. Together the two images look like elements of the evolution man with Obama as homo erectus and McCain an ill-formed primitive, grasping at stature. The title is simply “Endspurt”, which sounds like the money shot from a cheap porno movie. It means, in fact, final spurt or push as in a race. But here it will forever mean a last desperate grab.