Sticking Another Finger in the Dyke

My first thoughts on hearing reports of Des Browne’s latest comments on Iraq, were that it was so good of him accept reality and confirm our report a couple of weeks back that British troops are likely to be out of Iraq by the end of next year. Defence ministers seem to spend so much of their time denying obvious realities, that any attempt that gets close ought to be applauded. But a closer look at what he actually said made me realise that it was just another attempt to stick a finger in the dyke holding back the flood of calls for British troops to be pulled out of Iraq.

British soldiers, who have unkindly dubbed Browne “Swiss Toni”, after The Fast Show’s used car salesman, were particularly sceptical of his comments. So sceptical in fact that they were largely ignored on the Army Rumour Service forum ARRSE and were simply appended to an earlier thread of Browne’s predictions of Iraqi withdrawal, where one soldier had asked: “Do you really believe anything that man says??”

The Defence Secretary said UK troop levels in Iraq would be “significantly lower, by a matter of thousands” by the end of 2007. His speech follows last month's controversial comments by Gen Sir Richard Dannatt, Chief of General Staff, who said the British presence in southern Iraq only "exacerbates the security problems". There is little doubt that given the option, British troops would have been out of Iraq by now. The British agreement to lead the Nato deployment in Afghanistan was always predicated on the illusion that UK troops would have been largely withdrawn from southern Iraq by the beginning of this year.

The British originally controlled four provinces Muthanna, Dhi Qar, Maysan and Basra. Muthanna was supposed to have been handed over in early 2005 and was eventually handed over in July this year, with Dhi Qhar following in September.

We are still in control in theory of Maysan and Basra, although effectively it is the Iraqi security forces who carry out security operations and the governors of both provinces have made it clear they want us to leave. The provincial government in Maysan has refused to have any dealings with the British for more than a year and a formal handover to Iraqi control – little more than an acceptance of the status quo – is expected within weeks. Margaret Beckett, Foreign Secretary, said last week that Basra will follow in the spring, as reported in the original Sunday Times article I cited.

The main reason for the continued British control over Basra is given as the militia influence within the Iraqi police. British troops adopted a hands-off approach in the city until a couple of months back when they began Operation Sinbad, which is aimed at ending militia control sector by sector. This is a thankless and frankly pretty pointless task. We can’t stay forever and once we do eventually leave, the militias will fight it out for control of the south with its lucrative oil fields. Dannatt admitted as much, dismissing hopes of creating a liberal democracy in Iraq. “I don't think we are going to do that,” he said. “I think we should aim for a lower ambition." That was reality. Browne’s latest speech might be edging towards it, but it isn’t anywhere near there yet.

Comments

[Karen Tabaka]

Des Browne meet the Iraq Study Group here in the U.S. The ISG provides more fingers for the dyke, in my humble opinion.

There's a lot of reality searching going on in the U.S. but I'm afraid it's too little too late.....but better late than not at all. Hopefully, sanity will begin to emerge.

[Frank Schnittger]

The lack of comments on your recent posts is revealing, Mick. The reality is that Iraq is now a dead issue. The battle is lost and the troops are coming home as soon as that becomes politically convenient for the powers that be.

Two Presidents, Bush and Blair (nominally a Prime Minister) had tied their colours to mast, and both know that their legacies will be forever despoiled by it. True, there are still those who argue that Vietnam was only lost because of the peaceniks at home - but they can safely be despatched to the crank category.

Little consolation, I know, for the troops still out there at the sharp end. Who wants to be the last to die for an adventure that should never have been? They are the forgotten heroes, who like the returned Vietnam veterans will struggle to achieve any recognition for the trauma they have experienced and valour they have shown.

Who would be a foot soldier in a world run by despots? Meanwhile the neo-cons are still writing books and urging further support for Israeli expansion in the Middle East. They have very successfully transferred the costs of their folly onto others.

But has the West really learned its lesson? Not if the continued plight of the Palestinian people is to be any guide…..

[Chuck Unsworth]

Well, the ISG has issued its Report. It has, of course, provided an ideal escape route for Bush, his henchmen, and (guess who?) our own Mr Blair.

They will now be 'obliged' to do the bidding of the ISG. Now that in itself is no bad thing, but the inevitable questions arise. What is going to happen after 2008 (possibly earlier)? What is the USA going to do about Iran and Syria now? And what is envisaged for Afghanistan?

Much of this is fairly predictable. But this whole series of adventures, initiated by a wilful, incompetent President aided and abetted by a despicable, mendacious Prime Minister, has cost us all very dearly. The costs - of every sort - are set to continue to rise, culminating in the various reparations which will be paid to the Iraqis and, more subtly, to Iran and Syria.

So we can look forward to many years more of pain, expense and burden, grief and heartache. Thank you so much, George and Tony. Where would we be without you?

[The 3rd Column]

Mick,

Was speaking to a British 4-star rank here (active service) who is currently US based. He believes the Democrats winning the mid-term elections is a long term loss for the Democratic Party in that Bush will choose NOT to do anything at all about Iraq, a kind of Republican Party political strategy, heap the blame on the Democrats for the non-resolution of the Iraq problem, sort of to keep them from landing the next presidency.